communicable disease control

传染病控制
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    COVID-19大流行和相关的非药物干预措施(NPI)导致全球多个国家的传染病病例数量大幅减少。随着NPI逐渐被取消,报告了呼吸道和胃肠道疾病的强烈或反季节爆发,提出了感染潜在追赶效应的假设。通过分析来自联邦报告系统的应报告传染病的监测数据,我们旨在评估解除COVID-19相关NPI对巴伐利亚州选定传染病通知的潜在影响,2022年。
    我们比较了流感,水痘,诺如病毒胃肠炎,使用两种时间序列分析方法,在大流行前(2016-2019)和2022年的轮状病毒胃肠炎每周病例数:(i)基于2016-2019年数据,预测2020-2022年大流行年度的每周病例数的预测模型,(二)中断时间序列模型,根据2016-2022年的数据,包括每个大流行期间的一个术语。
    2022年,流感(IRR=3.47,95CI:1.49-7.94)和轮状病毒胃肠炎(IRR=1.36,95CI:0.95-1.93)的发病率高于大流行前。虽然对轮状病毒胃肠炎并不重要。相反,水痘(IRR=0.52,95CI:0.41-0.65)和诺如病毒胃肠炎(IRR=0.59,95CI:0.42-0.82)的病例数仍显著低于大流行前水平.季节性变化尤其是流感,与大流行前相比,显示出更早的流感浪潮。
    根据所选疾病,NPI的解除与异源性流行病学模式相关。只有继续监测和评估潜在的其他影响因素,NPI及其终止的全部影响才可能变得清晰。
    UNASSIGNED: The COVID-19 pandemic and associated non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have led to substantial decreases in case numbers of infectious diseases in several countries worldwide. As NPIs were gradually lifted, intense or out-of-season outbreaks of respiratory and gastrointestinal diseases were reported, raising the hypothesis of a potential catch-up effect of infections. By analysing surveillance data from the federal reporting system for notifiable infectious diseases, we aimed to assess the potential impact of lifting COVID-19 associated NPIs on notifications of selected infectious diseases in Bavaria, 2022.
    UNASSIGNED: We compared influenza, chickenpox, norovirus gastroenteritis, rotavirus gastroenteritis weekly case numbers in a pre-pandemic period (2016-2019) and 2022 using two time series analyses approaches: (i) a predictive model forecasting weekly case numbers for the pandemic years 2020-2022, based on 2016-2019 data, (ii) interrupted time series model, based on 2016-2022 data, including a term per pandemic period.
    UNASSIGNED: In 2022, incidence rates were higher compared to pre-pandemic period for influenza (IRR = 3.47, 95%CI: 1.49-7.94) and rotavirus gastroenteritis (IRR = 1.36, 95%CI: 0.95-1.93), though not significant for rotavirus gastroenteritis. Conversely, case numbers remained significantly below pre-pandemic levels for chickenpox (IRR = 0.52, 95%CI: 0.41-0.65) and norovirus gastroenteritis (IRR = 0.59, 95%CI: 0.42-0.82). Seasonality changed notably for influenza, showing an earlier influenza wave compared to pre-pandemic periods.
    UNASSIGNED: The lifting of NPIs was associated with heterogenic epidemiological patterns depending on the selected disease. The full impact of NPIs and their discontinuation may only become clear with continued monitoring and assessment of potential additional contributing factors.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    2020年底,全球抗击COVID-19大流行的重点集中在疫苗的开发上,当来自丹麦的1700万养殖水貂的SARS-CoV-2病毒变异的报道来自丹麦,威胁要危及这一努力。人们担心水貂和人类之间新变种的溢出感染会威胁到即将到来的疫苗的功效。在这项研究中,分析了在98个国家中的7个城市实施的短暂但严格的封锁措施,以减少SARS-CoV-2感染的有效性。使用严格措施未针对的其余城市的加权平均组合为每个城市创建综合反事实。这可以清楚地概述测试阳性率的发展,公民流动行为和最后的每日感染人数,以应对这些限制。研究结果表明,这些目标,短期封锁显著减少了进一步的感染,显示出明显的下降,首先是公民的流动性,然后是与他们的合成反事实相比的日常情况。总的来说,估计显示感染人数平均减少约31%。这项研究强调了严格,然而,在打破持续的感染动态方面进行了严重的封锁,通过利用罕见的准实验设计案例,避免了通过治疗选择引入的偏见。
    In late 2020, the focus of the global effort against the COVID-19 pandemic centered around the development of a vaccine, when reports of a mutated SARS-CoV-2 virus variant in a population of 17 million farmed mink came from Denmark, threatening to jeopardize this effort. Spillover infections of the new variant between mink and humans were feared to threaten the efficacy of upcoming vaccines. In this study the ensuing short-lived yet stringent lockdowns imposed in 7 of the countries 98 municipalities are analysed for their effectiveness to reduce SARS-CoV-2 infections. Synthetic counterfactuals are created for each of these municipalities using a weighted average combination of the remaining municipalities not targeted by the stringent measures. This allows for a clear overview regarding the development of test-positivity rates, citizen mobility behaviours and lastly daily infection numbers in response to the restrictions. The findings show that these targeted, short-term lockdowns significantly curtailed further infections, demonstrating a marked decrease, first in citizens mobility and then in daily cases when compared to their synthetic counterfactuals. Overall, the estimates indicate average reductions to infection numbers to be around 31%. This study underscores the potential of strict, yet severe lockdowns in breaking ongoing infection dynamics, by utilising a rare quasi-experimental design case that avoids bias introduced through treatment selection.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    2019年冠状病毒病意外发生在2019年12月下旬,在疫情爆发的早期阶段很难立即开发出有效的疫苗或提出有针对性的医疗干预措施。在这一点上,非药物干预措施(NPIs)是对COVID-19的公共卫生反应的重要组成部分。如何在疫情爆发初期对不同的NPI进行组合,控制疫情的传播,确保政策组合不产生高昂的社会经济成本,成为本次研究的重点。
    我们主要使用模糊集定性比较分析来评估不同NPI组合对COVID-19大流行早期控制效果的影响,使用包含案例编号的开放数据集,国家人口和政策对策。
    我们表明,高发病率结果的配置包括一个,这是非严格的面部覆盖的组合,社会隔离和旅行限制。非高发病率结果的配置包括三个,一是严格的口罩佩戴措施,这本身就构成了解释结果的充分条件;二是严格的测试和接触者追踪,社会隔离;第三是严格的测试和接触者追踪,旅行限制。稳健性检验的结果表明,更改最小情况频率后,配置的组件和一致性没有改变,证明了分析结果的可靠性。
    在流行病的早期阶段,高发病率的原因与非高发病率的原因不对称。严格的面部覆盖是预防和控制流行病所需的最基本措施,不严格的面部覆盖和围堵相结合是导致防控不力的最重要因素,严格遏制和主动追求相结合是实现卓越防控的途径,及时积极的遏制策略有更好的预防和控制,并应动员公众合作。
    UNASSIGNED: Coronavirus disease 2019 occurred unexpectedly in late December 2019, it was difficult to immediately develop an effective vaccine or propose targeted medical interventions in the early stages of the outbreak. At this point, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are essential components of the public health response to COVID-19. How to combine different NPIs in the early stages of an outbreak to control the spread of epidemics and ensure that the policy combination does not incur high socio-economic costs became the focus of this study.
    UNASSIGNED: We mainly used the fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis to assess the impact of different combinations of NPIs on the effectiveness of control in the COVID-19 pandemic early stage, using open datasets containing case numbers, country populations and policy responses.
    UNASSIGNED: We showed that the configuration of high morbidity results includes one, which is the combination of non-strict face covering, social isolation and travel restrictions. The configuration of non-high morbidity results includes three, one is strict mask wearing measures, which alone constitute sufficient conditions for interpreting the results; the second is strict testing and contact tracing, social isolation; the third is strict testing and contact tracing, travel restriction. The results of the robustness test showed that the number, components and consistency of the configurations have not changed after changing the minimum case frequency, which proved that the analysis results are reliable.
    UNASSIGNED: In the early stages of the epidemic, the causes of high morbidity are not symmetrical with the causes of non-high morbidity. Strict face covering is the most basic measure required to prevent and control epidemics, and the combination of non-strict face covering and containment is the most important factor leading to poor prevention and control, and the combination of strict containment and proactive pursuit is the way to achieve superior prevention and control, timely and proactive containment strategies have better prevention and control, and should mobilize the public to cooperate.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    适当的传染病特异性健康素养(IDSHL)有利于居民应对传染病。本研究旨在探讨居民获取传染病防治知识(IDPC知识)的方法,以寻求有效的健康教育方法,以提高居民的IDSHL水平。2022年,山东省进行了一项横断面研究,中国。通过多阶段抽样从农村地区招募参与者。IDPC知识认知问卷,作为一个可靠和有效的工具,应用于数据收集和调查参与者的IDPC知识。采用卡方分析法分析不同亚组间IDSHL占有水平的差异。还通过卡方分析检查了人口统计学因素与获取IDPC知识的方法之间的关系。在总共2283名参与者中,IDSHL的持有率为31.80%。IDSHL水平与社会人口因素之间存在显着关联,包括年龄(P<.001),性别(P=0.02),教育(P<.001),职业(P<.001),家庭年收入(P<.001),是否使用智能手机(P<.001),是否在智能手机上浏览微信(P<.001),以及是否在智能手机上浏览除微信以外的应用程序(P<.001)。单因素分析表明,是否采用特定的方法,包括电视(P=0.02),智能手机上的微信(P<.001),传染病防控宣传(P<.001),获得IDPC知识的医生建议(P<.001)与IDSHL水平显著相关。年龄(P<.001),教育(P<0.05),职业(P<0.05),和家庭年收入(P<.01)与获取IDPC知识的方法相关。山东省农村居民充足的IDSHL,中国,并不乐观。传统方法与互联网宣传平台的结合,应该为农村人群中的IDSHL健康教育承担更大的责任。
    Adequate infectious disease-specific health literacy (IDSHL) is of benefit to residents in dealing with infectious diseases. This study aimed to investigate the methods by which residents acquire knowledge about infectious disease prevention and control (IDPC knowledge) so as to find effective health education methods used to improve residents\' IDSHL level. In 2022, a cross-sectional study was conducted in Shandong Province, China. Participants were recruited from rural areas by multistage sampling. The IDPC knowledge cognitive questionnaire, as a reliable and valid tool, was applied to data collection and to investigate the participants\' IDPC knowledge. Chi-square analysis was utilized to analyze the differences in possession level of IDSHL between different subgroups. The relationship between demographic factors and methods to acquire IDPC knowledge was also examined by chi-square analysis. The possession rate of adequate IDSHL among the total 2283 participants was 31.80%. There was a significant association between IDSHL level and socio-demographic factors, including age (P < .001), sex (P = .02), education (P < .001), occupation (P < .001), annual family income (P < .001), whether to use smartphones (P < .001), whether to browse WeChat on smartphones (P < .001), and whether to browse apps on smartphones except WeChat (P < .001). Univariate analysis showed that whether to adopt specific methods, including television (P = .02), WeChat on smartphones (P < .001), propaganda of infectious disease prevention and control (P < .001), and doctor\'s advice (P < .001) to acquire IDPC knowledge had significant associations with IDSHL level. Age (P < .001), education (P < .05), occupation (P < .05), and annual family income (P < .01) were associated with methods to acquire IDPC knowledge. The rural residents\' adequate IDSHL in Shandong Province, China, was not optimistic. The combination of traditional methods and Internet publicity platforms should take greater responsibility for IDSHL health education among rural populations.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:COVID-19大流行导致非接触式支付和政府现金转移计划的数字金融服务空前普及,以减轻大流行的经济影响。大流行对低收入和中等收入国家使用数字金融服务促进健康的影响,然而,知之甚少。
    目的:本研究旨在评估首次COVID-19封锁对使用移动孕产妇健康钱包的影响,特别侧重于描述年龄相关的差异效应,并就封锁措施对数字医疗服务使用的影响得出结论。
    方法:我们分析了来自塔那那利佛25家公共部门初级保健机构和4家医院的3416名女性的819,840人日健康钱包使用数据,马达加斯加,2020年1月1日至8月27日。我们收集了储蓄数据,付款,和凭证在护理点使用。为了评估马达加斯加首次COVID-19封锁的影响,我们在2020年3月23日首次COVID-19封锁开始日前后使用了回归不连续性分析。我们使用数据驱动方法确定带宽,用于无偏带宽选择,并使用改进的泊松回归用于二元变量,以估计锁定效应大小的风险比。
    结果:我们记录了3719个保存事件,1572个付款事件,和3144使用事件的电子凭证。马达加斯加的首次COVID-19封锁将移动货币节省减少了58.5%(P<.001),付款量为45.8%(P<.001),凭证使用率下降49.6%(P<.001)。214天后,凭单使用恢复到推断的锁定前反事实,而储蓄和付款并没有超过推断的封锁前的反事实。封锁后的恢复时间因年龄组而异。年龄>30岁的妇女恢复得更快,在34、226和77天后恢复到提前封锁率,以节省资金,付款,和优惠券使用,分别。年龄<25岁的年轻女性没有恢复到基线值。在使用±20天的最佳带宽的灵敏度分析中,结果保持稳健。
    结论:COVID-19的封锁大大减少了移动货币在卫生部门的使用,影响储蓄,付款,和代金券使用。储蓄减少的幅度最大,这意味着封锁影响了女性对未来医疗保健使用的期望。付款和代金券使用的下降表明,封锁导致实际医疗保健使用减少。这些影响至关重要,因为许多妇幼保健服务不能延迟,因为潜在的利益将丢失或减少。为了减轻封锁对孕产妇保健服务使用的不利影响,可以利用数字医疗服务来提供远程医疗服务,并通过有关可用医疗服务访问选项和遵守安全协议的明确信息来增强用户通信。
    BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the unprecedented popularity of digital financial services for contactless payments and government cash transfer programs to mitigate the economic effects of the pandemic. The effect of the pandemic on the use of digital financial services for health in low- and middle-income countries, however, is poorly understood.
    OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess the effect of the first COVID-19 lockdown on the use of a mobile maternal health wallet, with a particular focus on delineating the age-dependent differential effects, and draw conclusions on the effect of lockdown measures on the use of digital health services.
    METHODS: We analyzed 819,840 person-days of health wallet use data from 3416 women who used health care at 25 public sector primary care facilities and 4 hospitals in Antananarivo, Madagascar, between January 1 and August 27, 2020. We collected data on savings, payments, and voucher use at the point of care. To estimate the effects of the first COVID-19 lockdown in Madagascar, we used regression discontinuity analysis around the starting day of the first COVID-19 lockdown on March 23, 2020. We determined the bandwidth using a data-driven method for unbiased bandwidth selection and used modified Poisson regression for binary variables to estimate risk ratios as lockdown effect sizes.
    RESULTS: We recorded 3719 saving events, 1572 payment events, and 3144 use events of electronic vouchers. The first COVID-19 lockdown in Madagascar reduced mobile money savings by 58.5% (P<.001), payments by 45.8% (P<.001), and voucher use by 49.6% (P<.001). Voucher use recovered to the extrapolated prelockdown counterfactual after 214 days, while savings and payments did not cross the extrapolated prelockdown counterfactual. The recovery duration after the lockdown differed by age group. Women aged >30 years recovered substantially faster, returning to prelockdown rates after 34, 226, and 77 days for savings, payments, and voucher use, respectively. Younger women aged <25 years did not return to baseline values. The results remained robust in sensitivity analyses using ±20 days of the optimal bandwidth.
    CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 lockdown greatly reduced the use of mobile money in the health sector, affecting savings, payments, and voucher use. Savings were the most significantly reduced, implying that the lockdown affected women\'s expectations of future health care use. Declines in payments and voucher use indicated decreased actual health care use caused by the lockdown. These effects are crucial since many maternal and child health care services cannot be delayed, as the potential benefits will be lost or diminished. To mitigate the adverse impacts of lockdowns on maternal health service use, digital health services could be leveraged to provide access to telemedicine and enhance user communication with clear information on available health care access options and adherence to safety protocols.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    传染病暴发已变得越来越普遍,需要全球伙伴关系以做好充分的准备和应对。在疫情爆发期间,医疗对策(MCM)-疫苗,治疗学,和诊断-需要快速到达患者。最近的疫情表明,获得监管部门批准的产品可以比研究产品更快地扩大获取范围并覆盖患者。不幸的是,全球资金不足和资助者优先次序的差异使收益和未来的努力面临风险。主要关注的是(1)缺乏可行的监管路径和临床能力,以获得针对许多疾病的新MCM的监管批准;(2)需要具有任务授权的合作伙伴,资金,以及支持长期维持制造能力和储存许可产品的能力。如果没有合作,全球社会面临着失去多年投资能力和应对未来威胁准备不足的风险。资助者之间的协同作用对于创建产品的长期维持以确保获取至关重要。
    Infectious disease outbreaks have become increasingly common and require global partnership for adequate preparedness and response. During outbreaks, medical countermeasures (MCMs)-vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics-need to reach patients quickly. Recent outbreaks exemplify that products with regulatory approval can expand access and reach patients quicker than investigational products. Unfortunately, insufficient funding globally and differences in funders\' prioritization puts gains and future efforts at risk. Of primary concern is (1) lack of a feasible regulatory path and clinical capability to achieve regulatory approval for new MCMs for many diseases; and (2) the need for partners with the mandate, funding, and capabilities to support long-term sustainment of manufacturing capability and stockpiling of licensed products. Without collaboration, the global community runs the risk of losing the capabilities built through years of investment and being underprepared to combat future threats. Synergies between funders are critical to create long-term sustainment of products to ensure access.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    长期禁闭会导致不同程度的个人恶化。我们在马德里Orcasitas社区的功能依赖人群的全国COVID-19封锁期间研究了这一现象,西班牙,通过测量他们进行日常生活基本活动的能力和死亡率。
    共有127例患者纳入Orcasitas队列。在这个队列中,78.7%是女性,21.3%为男性,他们的平均年龄是86岁。所有参与者的Barthel指数≤60。分析了从分娩前到分娩后以及之后3年的变化,并评估了这些变化对生存率的影响(2020-2023年).
    禁闭后功能评估显示,Barthel评分(t=-5.823;p<0.001)和分类水平(z=-2.988;p<0.003)的独立性均优于禁闭前。这种改善在接下来的3年里逐渐消失,该队列中40.9%的患者在此期间死亡。这些结果与Barthel指数(z=-3.646;p<0.001)和依赖水平(风险比2.227;CI1.514-3.276)相关。男性(HR1.745;CI1.045-2.915)和严重依赖者(HR2.169;CI1.469-3.201)的死亡率较高。将Barthel指数的截止点设置为40,可以最好地检测与依赖相关的死亡风险。
    家庭禁闭和COVID-19大流行导致的死亡风险唤醒了功能依赖的成年人群体在逆境中的一种恢复力。Barthel指数是中期和长期死亡率的良好预测指标,并且是在健康计划中检测处于危险中的人群的有用方法。40的截止分数可用于此目的。在某种程度上,非制度化的依赖人口是无形人口。未来的研究应该分析观察到的高死亡率的原因。
    UNASSIGNED: Prolonged confinement can lead to personal deterioration at various levels. We studied this phenomenon during the nationwide COVID-19 lockdown in a functionally dependent population of the Orcasitas neighborhood of Madrid, Spain, by measuring their ability to perform basic activities of daily living and their mortality rate.
    UNASSIGNED: A total of 127 patients were included in the Orcasitas cohort. Of this cohort, 78.7% were female, 21.3% were male, and their mean age was 86 years. All participants had a Barthel index of ≤ 60. Changes from pre- to post-confinement and 3 years afterward were analyzed, and the effect of these changes on survival was assessed (2020-2023).
    UNASSIGNED: The post-confinement functional assessment showed significant improvement in independence over pre-confinement for both the Barthel score (t = -5.823; p < 0.001) and the classification level (z = -2.988; p < 0.003). This improvement progressively disappeared in the following 3 years, and 40.9% of the patients in this cohort died during this period. These outcomes were associated with the Barthel index (z = -3.646; p < 0.001) and the level of dependence (hazard ratio 2.227; CI 1.514-3.276). Higher mortality was observed among men (HR 1.745; CI 1.045-2.915) and those with severe dependence (HR 2.169; CI 1.469-3.201). Setting the cutoff point of the Barthel index at 40 provided the best detection of the risk of death associated with dependence.
    UNASSIGNED: Home confinement and the risk of death due to the COVID-19 pandemic awakened a form of resilience in the face of adversity among the population of functionally dependent adults. The Barthel index is a good predictor of medium- and long-term mortality and is a useful method for detecting populations at risk in health planning. A cutoff score of 40 is useful for this purpose. To a certain extent, the non-institutionalized dependent population is an invisible population. Future studies should analyze the causes of the high mortality observed.
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