■预测跑步表现对运动员和教练员非常重要。因此,体育研究人员开发了某些工具来预测跑步表现,但只有在非障碍赛中。这项研究旨在开发和测试用于预测3,000米跳栏性能(PerfSteeple)的方程式的有效性和准确性。
■检查了3,000米田径比赛(Perf3000)和3,000米跳栏比赛的法国跑步者的官方排名。年龄,收集身高和体重。从146名运动员中,两组随机组成:一组占样本的80%(n=117),以建立一个简单的方程式来预测PerfSteeple(即,开发组),另一个包括剩余的20%(n=29)来测试开发的预测方程的有效性和准确性(即,交叉验证组)。
■简单的预测方程包括Perf3000和年龄:PerfSteeple=-57,165+1,147×Perf3000+0,955×age。实际性能和预测性能之间没有显著差异。预测表现与实际表现显著相关,具有非常高的相关系数(p<0.001;r=0.929)。偏差和95%的一致性界限为-5±24s,即,-0.8±7.6%。在100个新预测中的95个中,实际性能和预测性能之间的差异将小于或等于-5±24s。
■该研究证实了预测PerfSteeple的公式的有效性和准确性。使用这个简单方程的预测可用于运动员和教练的训练和比赛。PerfSteeple=-57,165+1,147XPerf3000+0,955X年龄。
UNASSIGNED: Predict running performances is very important for athletes and trainers. Sport researchers have therefore developed certain tools to predict running performances, but only in non-obstacle races. This study aimed to develop and test the validity and accuracy of an equation for predicting 3,000-m steeplechase performance (PerfSteeple ).
UNASSIGNED: The official rankings of French runners for the 3,000-m track-running (Perf3000 ) and 3,000-m steeplechase events were examined. Age, height and body mass were collected. From 146 included athletes, two groups were randomly composed: one comprising 80% of the sample (n = 117) to develop a simple equation to predict PerfSteeple (i.e., development group) and the other comprising the remaining 20% (n = 29) to test the validity and accuracy of the developed prediction equation (i.e., cross-validation group).
UNASSIGNED: The simple prediction equation included Perf3000 and age: P e r f S t e e p l e = - 57 , 165 + 1 , 147 × P e r f 3000 + 0 , 955 × a g e . No significant difference was noted between the actual and predicted performances. Predicted performances were significantly correlated with the actual ones, with a very high correlation coefficient (p < 0.001; r = 0.929). Bias and 95% limits of agreement were -5 ± 24 s, i.e., -0.8 ± 7.6%. In 95 of 100 new predictions, the difference between actual and predicted performance would be less or equal to-5 ± 24 s.
UNASSIGNED: The study confirms the validity and accuracy of the equation for predicting PerfSteeple . Predictions using this simple equation may be used in training and competitions for athletes and coaches. PerfSteeple = -57,165 + 1,147 X Perf3000 + 0,955 X age.