Natural factors

自然因素
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    中国国务院发布了《大气污染防治行动计划》(简称“清洁空气行动”),于2017年结束。评估清洁空气行动的实施效果,为未来的控制政策提供科学依据。地理探测器用于量化2014-2017年中国自然和社会经济因素对PM2.5浓度及其减少的影响。就减少PM2.5的影响而言,工业二氧化硫(SO2)和工业烟尘排放是唯一显示出显著影响的两个因素。因此,控制工业排放是实施清洁空气行动期间的主要政策。就对PM2.5浓度的影响而言,工业排放是清洁空气行动开始时最强烈的社会经济因素,但是它的主导地位正在下降。相比之下,人口密度的影响一直在增强,并成为最后一年的最大因素。因此,新的调控措施应侧重于城市化调控。此外,不同社会经济因素之间的相互作用被证明是双变量增强对PM2.5浓度水平的影响。因此,在建立任何新的控制策略时,应考虑多种因素。
    The State Council of China had issued the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan (abbreviated as \"Clean Air Actions\"), which ended in 2017. To evaluate the implementation effect of the clean air actions and provide the scientific basis on the future control policy, a Geographical Detector was used to quantify the impact of natural and socioeconomic factors on the PM2.5 concentration and its reductions in China from the years of 2014-2017. In terms of the impact on PM2.5 reduction, the industrial sulfur dioxide (SO2) and industrial soot emissions are the only two factors shown significant influences. So the controls of industrial emission were the major policies during the implementation of the Clean Air Actions. In terms of the impact on the PM2.5 concentrations, industrial emission was the strongest socioeconomic factor in the beginning of the Clean Air Actions, but its dominance was then declining. In contrast, the influences of population density had been enhancing and became the greatest factor in the final year. So the new control measures should focus on the urbanization regulation. In addition, the interactions between different socioeconomic factors are proved to bivariate enhance the influences on the PM2.5 concentration levels. Multiple factors should thus be taken into account when any new control policies are going to be established.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    近年来,随着我国经济的快速增长和大规模的城市化进程,我国的能源使用量大幅增加。因此,空气污染已成为一个主要问题。在这项研究中,利用2011-2017年中国31个省级行政单位的面板数据,对二氧化硫(SO2)和氮氧化物(NOX)排放进行空间自相关和空间面板回归分析,全面了解大气污染物排放的影响因素。本研究通过在中国全国的面板数据计量经济学框架中考虑综合因素和空间效应,为文献做出贡献。空间特征分析表明,在研究期间,中国的污染物排放量下降,尽管北部地区的排放量仍然相对较高。此外,SO2和NOX排放表现出显著的正空间自相关。固定效应空间滞后模型的结果表明,社会经济因素和自然因素对大气污染物排放均有统计学意义,尽管程度因污染物类型而异。人口,城市化率,第二产业增加值份额,加热和冷却天数对排放产生积极影响,而人口密度,人均地区生产总值,降水,和相对湿度对排放产生负面影响。基于这些结果,我们提出了解决空气污染问题和实现环境可持续性的建议,例如促进区域合作和经济结构的转变。
    China\'s energy use has increased significantly in recent years with the country\'s rapid economic growth and large-scale urbanization. Therefore, air pollution has become a major issue. In this study, we conducted spatial autocorrelation and spatial panel regression analyses of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxide (NOX) emissions using the panel data of 31 provincial-level administrative units in China during the period 2011-2017 to comprehensively understand the factors affecting air pollutant emissions. This study contributes to the literature by considering comprehensive factors and spatial effects in the panel-data econometric framework of the whole country of China. The analysis of spatial characteristics shows that during the study period, pollutant emissions in China declined, although emissions in northern regions were still relatively high. Furthermore, SO2 and NOX emissions showed significant positive spatial autocorrelations. The results of a fixed-effect spatial lag model showed that both socioeconomic and natural factors were statistically significant for air pollutant emissions, although the degree differed by the type of pollutant. The population, the urbanization rate, the share of added value of secondary industry, and heating and cooling degree days positively affected emissions, while population density, per-capita gross regional product, precipitation, and relative humidity negatively affected emissions. Based on these results, we have put forward suggestions to address the issue of air pollution and achieve environmental sustainability, such as the promotion of regional cooperation and a transition of the economic structure.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    城市化和农业的快速发展对干旱和半干旱地区的地下水造成严重影响,通常地下水耗竭率高。在这项研究中,化学和同位素分析结合不同的数据解释方法(图表,双变量分析,主成分分析(PCA),和层次聚类分析(HCA))用于确定控制华北干旱和半干旱地区地下水化学的主要因素。64个地下水样本(35个来自无限制含水层,29个来自密闭含水层)在包头市收集,华北,每个样品检测到17个化学变量。无限制地下水中的复杂水化学类型(例如,HCO3-Ca·Mg,HCO3·Cl-Na·Mg,SO4-Na·Mg,和Cl·SO4-Na类型)可能与人为活动有关,而受限地下水中的主要水化学类型是HCO3-Ca·Mg,HCO3-Na·Mg,HCO3·Cl-Na·Ca,SO4·HCO3-Na·Mg,和Cl·SO4-Na类型。使用PCA揭示了无约束和约束地下水的三个分量模型,这解释了大约79.69%和80.68%的数据方差,分别,更深入地了解受地球化学和人为活动控制的地下水组成。从HCA产生三个簇。通过水化学调查验证了因素和已识别的簇。在自然因素中,主要的水化学过程涉及各种矿物的溶解(岩盐,石膏,长石,萤石,芒硝,黑云母,白云石,和方解石),阳离子交换,蒸发,和混合。人为因素包括生活污水入侵和农业活动,最有可能导致地下水质量进一步下降。这些发现可能有助于改善干旱和半干旱地区的地下水资源管理,以实现可持续发展。
    The rapid development of urbanization and agriculture poses serious impacts on groundwater in arid and semi-arid areas, which typically have high groundwater depletion rates. In this study, chemical and isotopic analyses combined with different data interpretation methods (diagrams, bivariate analyses, principal component analysis (PCA), and hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA)) were used to identify the major factors controlling groundwater chemistry in an arid and semi-arid region of North China. Sixty-four groundwater samples (35 from unconfined aquifer, 29 from confined aquifer) were collected in Baotou City, North China, and 17 chemical variables were detected for each sample. The complex hydrochemical types in unconfined groundwater (e.g., HCO3-Ca·Mg, HCO3·Cl-Na·Mg, SO4-Na·Mg, and Cl·SO4-Na types) may be related to anthropogenic activities, while the main hydrochemical types in confined groundwater are HCO3-Ca·Mg, HCO3-Na·Mg, HCO3·Cl-Na·Ca, SO4·HCO3-Na·Mg, and Cl·SO4-Na types. Three component models for unconfined and confined groundwater were revealed using PCA, which explained approximately 79.69% and 80.68% of the data variance, respectively, providing a deeper insight into groundwater composition controlled by geochemistry and anthropogenic activities. Three clusters were yielded from HCA. The factors and identified clusters were verified with hydrochemical investigations. Among the natural factors, the main hydrochemical processes involve the dissolution of various minerals (halite, gypsum, feldspar, fluorite, mirabilite, biotite, dolomite, and calcite), cation exchange, evaporation, and mixing. The anthropogenic factors include domestic sewage intrusion and agricultural activities, which are most likely to lead to further declines in groundwater quality. These findings may be useful for improving groundwater resource management for sustainable development in arid and semi-arid areas.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    全球变化,指地球系统和人类社会的大规模变化,已经改变了许多传染病的爆发和传播方式。气候变化直接和间接影响传染病。气象因素包括温度,降水,湿度和辐射通过调节病原体影响传染病,宿主和传播途径。旱涝等气象灾害直接影响传染病的爆发和传播。气候变化通过改变生态系统间接影响传染病,包括其底层表面和植被分布。此外,人为活动是气候变化的驱动力,也是传染病传播的间接强迫。国际旅行和城乡移民是传染病传播的根本原因。快速的城市化以及城乡结合部落后的基础设施和高疾病风险正在改变疾病爆发和死亡的模式。土地利用变化,比如农业扩张和森林砍伐,已经改变了传染病的传播。加速空气,公路和铁路运输的发展不仅可能提高疫情的传播速度,而且还扩大了传播区域的范围。此外,更频繁的贸易和其他经济活动也将增加疾病爆发的潜在风险,并促进传染病的传播。
    Global change, which refers to large-scale changes in the earth system and human society, has been changing the outbreak and transmission mode of many infectious diseases. Climate change affects infectious diseases directly and indirectly. Meteorological factors including temperature, precipitation, humidity and radiation influence infectious disease by modulating pathogen, host and transmission pathways. Meteorological disasters such as droughts and floods directly impact the outbreak and transmission of infectious diseases. Climate change indirectly impacts infectious diseases by altering the ecological system, including its underlying surface and vegetation distribution. In addition, anthropogenic activities are a driving force for climate change and an indirect forcing of infectious disease transmission. International travel and rural-urban migration are a root cause of infectious disease transmission. Rapid urbanization along with poor infrastructure and high disease risk in the rural-urban fringe has been changing the pattern of disease outbreaks and mortality. Land use changes, such as agricultural expansion and deforestation, have already changed the transmission of infectious disease. Accelerated air, road and rail transportation development may not only increase the transmission speed of outbreaks, but also enlarge the scope of transmission area. In addition, more frequent trade and other economic activities will also increase the potential risks of disease outbreaks and facilitate the spread of infectious diseases.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在过去的几十年中,由于硫氧化物(SO2)和氮氧化物(NOx)排放过多,中国经历了严重的酸雨污染。这进一步导致了湖泊酸化,生物多样性丧失和气候变化。虽然酸沉积的主要来源之前已经澄清,社会经济(自然)因素对区域酸沉积的贡献仍然未知。因此,收集了一系列有价值的数据,包括城市雨水中的社会经济(自然)变量和测得的pH值,以使用空间计量经济学模型/地理检测器技术和地理权重回归(GWR)模型来确定影响国家和区域尺度雨水pH值的关键因素。分别。结果表明,中国雨水的年平均pH值为6.54±0.72。冬季雨水pH值(6.01±0.41)明显低于夏季(6.74±0.64),春季(6.71±0.71)和秋季(6.71±0.69)。空间计量经济模型表明,包括人均工业总产值(GIP)在内的社会经济指标,建成区与城市土地的比率(RBU),外国直接投资(FDI),SO2排放,和年平均降水量(AMP)的气象因素,和年平均相对湿度(AMRH)是酸沉积的主要因素。地理检测器技术暗示决定因素的功率顺序为AMRH(10.00%)=AMP(10.00%)>SO2排放(8.51%)>FDI(8.32%)>RBU(7.64%)>人均GIP(7.00%)。GWR暗示GIP,外国直接投资、与拥有庞大人口和较高能源消耗的其他地区相比,华东地区的SO2排放对酸沉降的贡献相对较高。中国东南部较高的降雨量和RH显着增加了污染物的沉积通量,并促进了酸雨前体的异质转化。分别。本文的研究结果首次揭示了中国酸沉降的社会经济力量,并为政府部门未来控制酸雨污染提供了新的信息。
    China has experienced severe acid rain pollution during the past decades due to excessive sulfur oxides (SO2) and nitrous oxides (NOx) emissions, which further caused lake acidification, biodiversity losses and climate change. Although the major sources of acid deposition have been clarified previously, the contributions of socioeconomic (natural) factors to the regional acid deposition remained unknown. Therefore, a series of valuable data including socioeconomic (natural) variables and measured pH value in the rainwater at the city level were collected to identify the key factors influencing the rainwater pH value at the national and the regional scale using the spatial econometric model/geographical detector technique and geographical weight regression (GWR) model, respectively. The results showed that the annual mean pH value in the rainwater in China was 6.54 ± 0.72. The rainwater pH in winter (6.01 ± 0.41) was significantly lower than those observed during summer (6.74 ± 0.64), spring (6.71 ± 0.71) and autumn (6.71 ± 0.69). The spatial econometric model indicated that socioeconomic indicators including per capita gross industrial production (GIP), ratio of built-up area to the urban land (RBU), foreign direct investment (FDI), SO2 emission, and meteorological factors of annual mean precipitation (AMP), and annual mean relative humidity (AMRH) were the main factors for the acid deposition. The geographical detector technique implied that the power of determinants were in the order of AMRH (10.00%) = AMP (10.00%) > SO2 emission (8.51%) > FDI (8.32%) > RBU (7.64%) > per capita GIP (7.00%). The GWR implied that GIP, FDI, and SO2 emission made relatively higher contribution to acid deposition in East China relative to other regions owning to the huge population and the higher energy consumption. The higher rainfall amount and RH in Southeast China significantly increased the pollutant deposition fluxes and promoted the heterogeneous transformations of precursors of acid rain, respectively. The findings herein shed light upon the socioeconomic forces for the acid deposition in China for the first time and provided the new information for government sectors to control the acid rain pollution in the future.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    BACKGROUND: We analyzed the influence of natural factors, such as temperature, rainfall, vegetation and hydrology, on the spatio-temporal distribution of Oncomelania hupensis and explored the leading factors influencing these parameters. The results will provide reference methods and theoretical a basis for the schistosomiasis control.
    METHODS: GIS (Geographic Information System) spatial display and analysis were used to describe the spatio-temporal distribution of Oncomelania hupensis in the study area (Dongting Lake in Hunan Province) from 2004 to 2011. Correlation analysis was used to detect the natural factors associated with the spatio-temporal distribution of O. hupensis. Spatial regression analysis was used to quantitatively analyze the effects of related natural factors on the spatio-temporal distribution of snails and explore the dominant factors influencing this parameter.
    RESULTS: (1) Overall, the spatio-temporal distribution of O. hupensis was governed by the comprehensive effects of natural factors. In the study area, the average density of living snails showed a downward trend, with the exception of a slight rebound in 2009. The density of living snails showed significant spatial clustering, and the degree of aggregation was initially weak but enhanced later. Regions with high snail density and towns with an HH distribution pattern were mostly distributed in the plain areas in the northwestern and inlet and outlet of the lake. (2) There were space-time differences in the influence of natural factors on the spatio-temporal distribution of O. hupensis. Temporally, the comprehensive influence of natural factors on snail distribution increased first and then decreased. Natural factors played an important role in snail distribution in 2005, 2006, 2010 and 2011. Spatially, it decreased from the northeast to the southwest. Snail distributions in more than 20 towns located along the Yuanshui River and on the west side of the Lishui River were less affected by natural factors, whereas relatively larger in areas around the outlet of the lake (Chenglingji) were more affected. (3) The effects of natural factors on the spatio-temporal distribution of O. hupensis were spatio-temporally heterogeneous. Rainfall, land surface temperature, NDVI, and distance from water sources all played an important role in the spatio-temporal distribution of O. hupensis. In addition, due to the effects of the local geographical environment, the direction of the influences the average annual rainfall, land surface temperature, and NDVI had on the spatio-temporal distribution of O. hupensis were all spatio-temporally heterogeneous, and both the distance from water sources and the history of snail distribution always had positive effects on the distribution O. hupensis, but the direction of the influence was spatio-temporally heterogeneous. (4) Of all the natural factors, the leading factors influencing the spatio-temporal distribution of O. hupensis were rainfall and vegetation (NDVI), and the primary factor alternated between these two. The leading role of rainfall decreased year by year, while that of vegetation (NDVI) increased from 2004 to 2011.
    CONCLUSIONS: The spatio-temporal distribution of O. hupensis was significantly influenced by natural factors, and the influences were heterogeneous across space and time. Additionally, the variation in the spatial-temporal distribution of O. hupensis was mainly affected by rainfall and vegetation.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    An understanding of land-use change and its drivers in agroecosystems is important when developing adaptations to future environmental and socioeconomic pressures. Agricultural abandonment occurs worldwide with multiple potentially positive and negative consequences; however, the main factors causing agricultural abandonment in a country i.e., at the macro scale, have not been identified. We hypothesized that socio-environmental factors driving agricultural abandonment could be summarized comprehensively into two, namely \"natural\" and \"social\", and the relative importance of these differs among regions. To test this postulate, we analyzed the factors currently leading to agricultural abandonment considering ten natural environment variables (e.g., temperature) and five social variables (e.g., number of farmers) using the random forest machine learning method after dividing Japan into eight regions. Our results showed that agricultural abandonment was driven by various socio-environmental factors, and the main factors leading to agricultural abandonment differed among regions, especially in Hokkaido in northern Japan. Hokkaido has a relatively large area of concentrated farmland, and abandonment might have resulted from the effectiveness of cultivation under specific climate factors, whereas the other regions have relatively small areas of farmland with many elderly part-time farmers. In such regions, abandonment might have been caused by the decreasing numbers of potential farmers. Thus, two different drivers of agricultural abandonment were found: inefficient cultivation and decreasing numbers of farmers. Therefore, agricultural abandonment cannot be prevented by adopting a single method or policy. Agricultural abandonment is a significant problem not only for food production but also for several ecosystem services. Governments and decision-makers should develop effective strategies to prevent further abandonment to ensure sustainable future management of agro-ecosystems.
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