pandemic

大流行
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在第一波COVID-19疫情期间,中国表现出了对流行病预防和控制的坚定承诺。本案例研究集中在Z大学,在疫情严重时采取封闭管理,通过对10名学生的访谈,考察了COVID-19对学生心理和行为的影响。研究表明,虽然学生认为疫情期间的封闭式管理在一定程度上提高了安全性,促进了学习参与度,这种流行病也对他们的身体健康产生不利影响,心理学,和社交生活。这些影响包括身体健康恶化,关于大学生活的叛逆和沮丧的感觉,以及对未来工作稳定性的担忧和愿望。在讨论中,我们建议高等教育机构可以利用这些信息来制定政策和程序,特别是关于心理健康和风险沟通,不仅在当前的大流行期间,而且在未来的紧急情况或灾难情况下。
    During the first wave of COVID-19, China demonstrated a strong commitment to epidemic prevention and control. This case study focuses on Z University, which adopted closed management when the epidemic was serious, and examines the influence of COVID-19 on students\' psychology and behavior through interviews with 10 students. The research reveals that while students perceive closed management during the epidemic as enhancing safety and promoting learning engagement to some extent, the epidemic also has adverse effects on their physical health, psychology, and social life. These impacts included deteriorating physical health, feelings of rebellion and depression regarding college life, alongside concerns and aspirations regarding future job stability. In the discussion, we suggest that higher education institutions can utilize this information to shape policies and procedures, particularly concerning mental health and risk communication, not only during the current pandemic but also in future emergency or disaster scenarios.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    症状监测是对基于测试的COVID-19监测的潜在廉价补充。通过加强对COVID-19样疾病(CLI)的监测,可以促进有针对性的快速干预措施,从而预防COVID-19暴发,而无需主要依靠检测。
    本研究旨在评估确认的SARS-CoV-2感染与大学和县环境中自我报告和医疗保健提供者报告的CLI之间的时间关系,分别。
    我们收集了康奈尔大学(2020-2021年)和汤普金斯县卫生局(2020-2022年)的COVID-19检测和症状报告监测数据。我们使用负二项和线性回归模型将确认的COVID-19病例数和阳性测试率与CLI率时间序列相关联,滞后的COVID-19病例或比率,和星期几作为自变量。使用格兰杰因果关系和似然比检验确定了最佳滞后期。
    在模拟本科生案例时,CLI率(P=.003)和CLI暴露率(P<.001)与COVID-19试验阳性率显著相关,线性模型无滞后。在县一级,在线性(P<.001)和负二项模型(P=.005)中,卫生保健提供者报告的CLI率与SARS-CoV-2试验阳性显著相关,且滞后3天.
    大学校园中综合征监测与COVID-19病例之间的实时相关性表明,症状报告是COVID-19监测测试的可行替代或补充。在县一级,综合征监测也是COVID-19病例的领先指标,使快速行动,以减少传输。进一步的研究应该在其他环境中使用综合征监测来调查COVID-19的风险,例如低收入和中等收入国家等低资源环境。
    UNASSIGNED: Syndromic surveillance represents a potentially inexpensive supplement to test-based COVID-19 surveillance. By strengthening surveillance of COVID-19-like illness (CLI), targeted and rapid interventions can be facilitated that prevent COVID-19 outbreaks without primary reliance on testing.
    UNASSIGNED: This study aims to assess the temporal relationship between confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections and self-reported and health care provider-reported CLI in university and county settings, respectively.
    UNASSIGNED: We collected aggregated COVID-19 testing and symptom reporting surveillance data from Cornell University (2020-2021) and Tompkins County Health Department (2020-2022). We used negative binomial and linear regression models to correlate confirmed COVID-19 case counts and positive test rates with CLI rate time series, lagged COVID-19 cases or rates, and day of the week as independent variables. Optimal lag periods were identified using Granger causality and likelihood ratio tests.
    UNASSIGNED: In modeling undergraduate student cases, the CLI rate (P=.003) and rate of exposure to CLI (P<.001) were significantly correlated with the COVID-19 test positivity rate with no lag in the linear models. At the county level, the health care provider-reported CLI rate was significantly correlated with SARS-CoV-2 test positivity with a 3-day lag in both the linear (P<.001) and negative binomial model (P=.005).
    UNASSIGNED: The real-time correlation between syndromic surveillance and COVID-19 cases on a university campus suggests symptom reporting is a viable alternative or supplement to COVID-19 surveillance testing. At the county level, syndromic surveillance is also a leading indicator of COVID-19 cases, enabling quick action to reduce transmission. Further research should investigate COVID-19 risk using syndromic surveillance in other settings, such as low-resource settings like low- and middle-income countries.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    全球流行病限制了长途交通和国际贸易。为了恢复空中交通,在最近的COVID-19大流行期间实施了一项名为“旅行泡沫”的政策,通过允许不受限制的旅客旅行而无需在抵达时进行强制隔离,寻求在特定国家之间重新建立空中联系。然而,出于安全原因,旅行气泡容易破裂,以及如何通过旅行泡沫制定有效的恢复计划正在探索中。因此,向COVID-19学习,并制定一个正式的框架,为未来的突发公共卫生事件实施旅行泡沫疗法至关重要。本文从网络设计的角度对空气旅行气泡问题进行了分析研究。首先,建立了一个基于链路的网络设计问题,目的是将航空旅行期间的总感染风险降至最低。然后,基于起点-目的地对和国际候选链接之间的关系,该模型被重构为基于路径的模型。提出了基于拉格朗日松弛的解决方案框架,以确定最佳的恢复国际航线并分配交通流量。最后,在假设的数据和现实世界的情况下进行计算实验,以检查算法的性能。结果表明了所提模型和算法的有效性和高效性。此外,与基准策略相比,研究发现,在拟议的旅行泡沫策略下,感染风险可降低高达45.2%。更重要的是,这项工作为政策制定者和航空运营监管机构提供了有关制定大流行引起的航空运输恢复计划的实用见解。
    Global pandemics restrict long-haul mobility and international trade. To restore air traffic, a policy named \"travel bubble\" was implemented during the recent COVID-19 pandemic, which seeks to re-establish air connections among specific countries by permitting unrestricted passenger travel without mandatory quarantine upon arrival. However, travel bubbles are prone to bursting for safety reasons, and how to develop an effective restoration plan through travel bubbles is under-explored. Thus, it is vital to learn from COVID-19 and develop a formal framework for implementing travel bubble therapy for future public health emergencies. This article conducts an analytical investigation of the air travel bubble problem from a network design standpoint. First, a link-based network design problem is established with the goal of minimizing the total infection risk during air travel. Then, based on the relationship between origin-destination pairs and international candidate links, the model is reformulated into a path-based one. A Lagrangian relaxation-based solution framework is proposed to determine the optimal restored international air routes and assign the traffic flow. Finally, computational experiments on both hypothetical data and real-world cases are conducted to examine the algorithm\'s performance. The results demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed model and algorithm. In addition, compared to a benchmark strategy, it is found that the infection risk under the proposed travel bubble strategy can be reduced by up to 45.2%. More importantly, this work provides practical insights into developing pandemic-induced air transport recovery schemes for both policymakers and aviation operations regulators.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    本研究旨在探讨大流行期间医学生的心理反应。
    定性研究。
    采用了有目的的采样技术,并采取了定性的方法。采用半结构化问卷,并进行了在线采访。选择了40名医学生作为访谈的参与者。访谈数据采用Colaizzi七步分析法进行分析。
    该研究确定了与大流行期间医学生的心理反应有关的五个主题。首先,COVID-19对医疗职业的影响的特点是对追求医疗职业的兴趣和决心增加,对一线工人的钦佩提高,由于大流行,加强了对医疗事业的承诺,认识到医学教育的重要性。其次,确定了医疗职业追求中的挑战和担忧,包括在COVID-19期间对医疗事业的负面情绪,以及在大流行期间对进入医疗领域的犹豫和担忧。第三,对心理健康的影响包括参与者对控制表达的各种焦虑,传输,治疗,故意传播病毒。参与者经历了从平静到恐惧和焦虑的情绪发展,当亲戚或熟人感染COVID-19时,焦虑加剧。学业延误也导致了医学生的焦虑。第四,观察到行为和心态的变化,包括为应对大流行而改变的行为和心态,以及更加重视个人卫生和疾病预防措施。最后,政府对医学生的期望,public,和父母被探索。
    了解医学生在突发公共卫生事件中的心理反应对他们的健康和职业发展至关重要。研究结果对医学教育和制定在类似危机期间增强医学生心理健康的策略具有启示意义。
    UNASSIGNED: This study aims to explore the psychological reactions of medical students during the pandemic.
    UNASSIGNED: A qualitative study.
    UNASSIGNED: A purposive sampling technique was employed, and a qualitative approach was adopted. Semi-structured questionnaires were utilized, and online interviews were conducted. Forty medical students were selected as participants for the interviews. The interview data were analyzed using Colaizzi\'s seven-step analysis method.
    UNASSIGNED: The study identified five themes related to the psychological reactions of medical students during the pandemic. Firstly, COVID-19\'s influence on medical careers was characterized by increased interest and determination in pursuing medical professions, heightened admiration for frontline workers, reinforced commitment to a medical career due to the pandemic, and recognition of the significance of medical education. Secondly, challenges and concerns in medical career pursuit were identified, including negative sentiments towards medical careers during COVID-19 and hesitations and concerns about entering the medical field amidst the pandemic. Thirdly, the impact on mental well-being encompassed diverse anxieties expressed by participants regarding control, transmission, treatment, and intentional spreading of the virus. Participants experienced an emotional progression from calmness to fear and anxiety, with heightened anxiety when relatives or acquaintances contracted COVID-19. Academic delays also contributed to anxiety among medical students. Fourthly, changes in behaviors and mindset were observed, including altered behaviors and mindset in response to the pandemic, as well as increased attention to personal hygiene and disease prevention measures. Lastly, expectations of medical students from government, public, and parents were explored.
    UNASSIGNED: Understanding the psychological reactions of medical students during public health emergencies is crucial for their well-being and professional development. The findings have implications for medical education and the development of strategies to enhance the psychological well-being of medical students during similar crises.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:各种试验正在调查数字和面对面干预对护士韧性的影响;然而,目前尚不清楚这些干预措施是否具有立竿见影的作用,短期或长期影响。
    目的:系统评价的目的是确定干预措施的类型并评估即刻(<3个月),短期(3-6个月),以及这些干预措施对护士韧性的长期(>6个月)影响。
    方法:该系统评价已在国际系统评价前瞻性注册(注册号:CRD42023434924)中注册。根据系统评价和荟萃分析方案的首选报告项目报告结果。
    方法:数据来自CINAHL数据库,科克伦图书馆,Embase(OVID),Medline,和Scopus在2023年3月至5月之间。研究方案是按照人口框架确定的,暴露,结果,和研究类型。包括2000年至2023年之间发表的全文文章。如果研究(1)涉及直接提供病人护理的护士,(2)利用数字或面对面干预,(3)报告的弹性结果,(4)为随机对照试验或临床试验。JBI关键评估工具用于评估收集的研究的偏倚风险。
    结果:共有18项研究符合标准并进行了分析。汇总结果表明,与没有干预相比,数字干预在4-5个月的随访中对护士弹性有统计学意义的积极影响(标准化平均差异[SMD]=0.71;95%CI=0.13,1.29;P=0.02)。此外,汇总数据显示,在所有随访中,对护士的韧性没有影响,与没有干预相比。在干预组和对照组之间的数字干预或面对面干预的比较中没有观察到显着结果。
    结论:该综述评估了18项试验中护士的数字和面对面弹性干预。数字方法在4-5个月内显示出短期影响,而面对面干预在随访期间没有效果.现实的期望,持续支持,和量身定制的干预措施对于增强护士的韧性至关重要。Tweetable摘要已确定数字干预措施对护士的韧性有短期影响,而面对面干预在随访期间没有效果@fionayyu。
    BACKGROUND: Various trials are investigating the effect of digital and face-to-face interventions on nurse resilience; however, it remains unclear whether these interventions have immediate, short-term or long-term effects.
    OBJECTIVE: The objective of the systematic review is to identify the types of interventions and assess the immediate (<3 months), short-term (3-6 months), and long-term (>6 months) effects of these interventions on nurse resilience.
    METHODS: This systematic review was registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (Registered Number: CRD 42023434924), and results are reported according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses protocol.
    METHODS: Data were collated from the databases of CINAHL, Cochrane Library, Embase (OVID), Medline, and Scopus between March and May 2023. The research protocol was determined following the framework of population, exposure, outcomes, and type of study. The articles with full text published between 2000 and 2023 were included. Studies were included if they (1) involved the nurses who provided patient care directly, (2) utilised digital or face-to-face interventions, (3) reported resilience outcomes, and (4) were randomised controlled trials or clinical trials. The JBI critical appraisal tool was utilised to assess the risk of bias for the studies collected.
    RESULTS: A total of 18 studies met the criteria and were analysed. Pooled results demonstrated that digital interventions had a statistically significant positive effect on nurse resilience at 4-5-month follow-ups (standardised mean difference [SMD] = 0.71; 95 % CI = 0.13, 1.29; P = 0.02) compared to no interventions. Additionally, pooled data showed no effect on nurse resilience at all the follow-ups, compared to no interventions. No significant results were observed in comparisons of digital or face-to-face interventions between the intervention and control groups.
    CONCLUSIONS: The review assessed digital and face-to-face resilience interventions in nurses across 18 trials. Digital methods showed a short-term impact within 4-5 months, whilst face-to-face interventions had no effect during follow-ups. Realistic expectations, ongoing support, and tailored interventions are crucial for nurse resilience enhancement. Tweetable abstract It was identified digital interventions had a short-term impact on nurse resilience, whilst face-to-face interventions had no effect during follow-ups @fionayyu.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目标:在COVID-19大流行期间,作为一线医疗保健专业人员可能与严重的信息焦虑有关。调查信息焦虑的迹象是其针对性医疗干预的第一步和关键步骤。本研究旨在探讨一线医疗专业人员在COVID-19大流行期间的信息焦虑迹象。
    方法:本研究为定性研究。扎根理论用于对一线医疗保健专业人员的信息焦虑迹象进行分类。
    方法:招募了来自武汉一家拥有5000张床位的综合医院的24名一线医疗保健专业人员参加半结构化访谈。根据面试中出现迹象的频率和频率变化,病毒遭遇期间的迹象趋势,封锁,比较了变平和第二波。根据采访,提取概念上彼此相关的标志来构建概念模型。
    结果:心理体征(情绪,担心,怀疑,小心,希望),体征(失眠,注意力不集中,记忆丧失,食欲下降)和行为迹象(抢购商品,不知所措,注意相关信息,改变习惯)可以从信息焦虑症状的13个亚类中概括出来。在大流行的每个时期,心理体征都是最多的。此外,在封锁期间,心理体征显着下降,而行为和身体体征增加。最后,严重的心理和行为体征与身体体征相关。
    OBJECTIVE: Being front-line healthcare professionals is associated with possible severe information anxiety during the COVID-19 pandemic. Investigating signs of information anxiety is the first and key step of its targeted medical intervention. This study aims to explore the signs of front-line healthcare professionals\' information anxiety during the COVID-19 pandemic.
    METHODS: This study is qualitative research. Grounded theory was used to classify information anxiety signs of front-line healthcare professionals.
    METHODS: Twenty-four front-line healthcare professionals from a general hospital with over 5000 beds in Wuhan were recruited to participate in semi-structured interviews. According to the frequency and frequency variation of signs appearing in interviews, the trends of signs during the virus encounter, lockdown, flattening and second wave were compared. Based on the interviews, those signs that were conceptually related to each other were extracted to construct a conceptual model.
    RESULTS: Psychological signs (emotion, worry, doubt, caution, hope), physical signs (insomnia, inattention, memory loss, appetite decreased) and behavioural signs (panic buying of goods, be at a loss, pay attention to relevant information, change habits) could be generalized from 13 subcategories of information anxiety signs. Psychological signs were the most in every period of the pandemic. Furthermore, psychological signs decreased significantly during lockdown, while behavioural and physical signs increased. Finally, severe psychological and behavioural signs were associated with physical signs.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    地球是一个有机联系的整体,在大流行时代,COVID-19给人类带来了沉重的公共安全威胁和经济成本,因为几乎所有国家都开始更加重视采取措施,将突发疾病对社会的危害风险降至最低。值得注意的是,在一些中低收入地区,那里的流行病检测环境很复杂,致病因素和共病因素很多,公共卫生资源稀缺的地方。在病毒大面积传播的情况下,往往比其他地区更难得到及时有效的检测和控制,which,反过来,是对本地和全球公共卫生安全的持续威胁。流行病可以通过有效的疾病监测系统来预防,以非药物干预(NPI)为控制系统的主体,有效控制流行病的传播,防止更大规模的爆发。然而,目前最先进的NPI不适用于低收入和中等收入地区,往往是分散和昂贵的。基于中国中南部低收入地区SARS-CoV-2预防性检测的3年案例研究,我们探索了在中低收入地区提高疾病检测效能的战略模式.第一次,我们提出了一个综合和全面的方法,涵盖结构,社会,和个人策略,优化中低收入地区的疫情监测系统。该模型可以提高局部流行病的检测效率,确保更多人的医疗保健需求,协调降低中低收入地区的公共卫生成本,并可持续地确保和加强地方公共卫生安全。
    The globe is an organically linked whole, and in the pandemic era, COVID-19 has brought heavy public safety threats and economic costs to humanity as almost all countries began to pay more attention to taking steps to minimize the risk of harm to society from sudden-onset diseases. It is worth noting that in some low- and middle-income areas, where the environment for epidemic detection is complex, the causative and comorbid factors are numerous, and where public health resources are scarce. It is often more difficult than in other areas to obtain timely and effective detection and control in the event of widespread virus transmission, which, in turn, is a constant threat to local and global public health security. Pandemics are preventable through effective disease surveillance systems, with nonpharmacological interventions (NPIs) as the mainstay of the control system, effectively controlling the spread of epidemics and preventing larger outbreaks. However, current state-of-the-art NPIs are not applicable in low- and middle-income areas and tend to be decentralized and costly. Based on a 3-year case study of SARS-CoV-2 preventive detection in low-income areas in south-central China, we explored a strategic model for enhancing disease detection efficacy in low- and middle-income areas. For the first time, we propose an integrated and comprehensive approach that covers structural, social, and personal strategies to optimize the epidemic surveillance system in low- and middle-income areas. This model can improve the local epidemic detection efficiency, ensure the health care needs of more people, reduce the public health costs in low- and middle-income areas in a coordinated manner, and ensure and strengthen local public health security sustainably.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:COVID-19大流行对全球卫生系统和经济结构产生了深远的影响。尽管实施封锁措施在遏制大流行蔓延方面取得了显著成功,它同时产生了巨大的社会经济成本。
    目的:这项研究的目的是在封锁措施的经济损失和健康利益之间建立平衡,目的是确定在各个大流行阶段实施这些措施的最佳边界条件。
    方法:本研究使用模型估算了观察到的不同菌株的病死率的半衰期。它基于世界卫生组织收集的全球感染和死亡数据以及Nextstrain提供的菌株序列时间序列数据。通过计算残疾调整寿命年,建立了健康福利与封锁措施带来的经济损失之间的联系。以中国的城市封锁为例,这项研究确定了COVID-19演变过程中各种封锁措施的成本效益界限。
    结果:该研究揭示了由于封锁造成的经济损失与观察到的病毒株病死率之间的直接比例关系。无论人口规模或人均经济产出如何,这种关系都成立。随着SARS-CoV-2菌株的进化和人群免疫力的变化,随着时间的推移,观察到的病例死亡率显着下降,半衰期约为8个月。死亡率的下降可能会抵消维持封锁措施不变的健康益处,鉴于由此产生的经济损失可能超过健康益处。
    结论:武汉最初实施封锁带来了显著的健康益处。然而,随着观察到的病毒株病死率的下降,经济损失越来越超过健康益处。因此,必须根据不同病毒株不断变化的死亡率和感染率,不断完善和加强封锁策略,从而优化预测未来大流行的结果。
    BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic had a profound impact on the global health system and economic structure. Although the implementation of lockdown measures achieved notable success in curbing the spread of the pandemic, it concurrently incurred substantial socioeconomic costs.
    OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to delineate an equilibrium between the economic losses and health benefits of lockdown measures, with the aim of identifying the optimal boundary conditions for implementing these measures at various pandemic phases.
    METHODS: This study used a model to estimate the half-lives of the observed case fatality rates of different strains. It was based on global infection and death data collected by the World Health Organization and strain sequence time series data provided by Nextstrain. The connection between the health benefits and economic losses brought by lockdown measures was established through the calculation of disability-adjusted life years. Taking China\'s city lockdowns as an example, this study determined the cost-benefit boundary of various lockdown measures during the evolution of COVID-19.
    RESULTS: The study reveals a direct proportionality between economic losses due to lockdowns and the observed case fatality rates of virus strains, a relationship that holds true irrespective of population size or per capita economic output. As SARS-CoV-2 strains evolve and population immunity shifts, there has been a notable decrease in the observed case fatality rate over time, exhibiting a half-life of roughly 8 months. This decline in fatality rates may offset the health benefits of maintaining unchanged lockdown measures, given that the resultant economic losses might exceed the health benefits.
    CONCLUSIONS: The initial enforcement of lockdown in Wuhan led to significant health benefits. However, with the decline in the observed case fatality rate of the virus strains, the economic losses increasingly outweighed the health benefits. Consequently, it is essential to consistently refine and enhance lockdown strategies in accordance with the evolving fatality and infection rates of different virus strains, thereby optimizing outcomes in anticipation of future pandemics.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    解除与COVID-19相关的严格限制后,全球卫生系统不堪重负。关于卫生系统如何更好地为未来的流行病做好准备,已经讨论了很多;然而,初级卫生保健(PHC)在很大程度上被忽视。
    我们旨在调查PHC可以通过自下而上的方法应用哪些综合政策来加强医疗保健系统,以便更好地应对突发公共卫生事件。
    我们开发了一个系统动力学模型,以在解除与COVID-19相关的限制时复制上海的反应。然后,我们模拟了另一种基于PHC的综合卫生系统,并测试了以下三种干预措施:PHC首次接触远程医疗服务,二级保健的建议,并返回PHC进行恢复。
    模拟结果表明,每种选择的干预措施都可以减轻医院的压力。提高PHC与远程医疗的首次接触率将医院病床的可用性提高了6%至12%,并将累计死亡人数减少了35%。更精确的建议对医院压倒性的影响有限(<1%),但模拟结果显示,推荐不足(比例:80%)将导致累计死亡增加19%.将PHC的回报率从5%提高到20%,将医院病床的可用性提高了6%至16%,并将累计死亡人数减少了46%。此外,结合所有3种干预措施具有乘数效应;床位可用性增加了683%,累计死亡人数下降了75%。
    不是专注于二级保健的医疗资源的分配,我们确定基于PHC的最佳综合策略是在PHC中首次接触率达到60%,110%的推荐率,和20%的PHC回报率。这可以在突发公共卫生事件期间提高卫生系统的抵御能力。
    UNASSIGNED: After strict COVID-19-related restrictions were lifted, health systems globally were overwhelmed. Much has been discussed about how health systems could better prepare for future pandemics; however, primary health care (PHC) has been largely ignored.
    UNASSIGNED: We aimed to investigate what combined policies PHC could apply to strengthen the health care system via a bottom-up approach, so as to better respond to a public health emergency.
    UNASSIGNED: We developed a system dynamics model to replicate Shanghai\'s response when COVID-19-related restrictions were lifted. We then simulated an alternative PHC-based integrated health system and tested the following three interventions: first contact in PHC with telemedicine services, recommendation to secondary care, and return to PHC for recovery.
    UNASSIGNED: The simulation results showed that each selected intervention could alleviate hospital overwhelm. Increasing the rate of first contact in PHC with telemedicine increased hospital bed availability by 6% to 12% and reduced the cumulative number of deaths by 35%. More precise recommendations had a limited impact on hospital overwhelm (<1%), but the simulation results showed that underrecommendation (rate: 80%) would result in a 19% increase in cumulative deaths. Increasing the rate of return to PHC from 5% to 20% improved hospital bed availability by 6% to 16% and reduced the cumulative number of deaths by 46%. Moreover, combining all 3 interventions had a multiplier effect; bed availability increased by 683%, and the cumulative number of deaths dropped by 75%.
    UNASSIGNED: Rather than focusing on the allocation of medical resources in secondary care, we determined that an optimal PHC-based integrated strategy would be to have a 60% rate of first contact in PHC, a 110% recommendation rate, and a 20% rate of return to PHC. This could increase health system resilience during public health emergencies.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:针对COVID-19大流行采取的各种措施不仅可以有效减少疾病的传播,但也会导致一些意想不到的结果。本文将这些措施视为干预措施,并探讨其对汕头市结核病发病率的影响。中国。
    方法:1月1日的结核病发病率和监测资料,2018年12月31日,2021年由汕头市结核病预防控制研究所提供。数据分为大流行前时期(1月1日,2018年12月31日,2019年)和大流行期(1月1日,2020年12月31日,2021)。中断时间序列(ITS)用于分析COVID-19流行之前和期间的结核病发病率趋势。
    结果:结果表明,与大流行前相比,大流行期间汕头的结核病发病率显着下降(p<0.05)。其中,45-64岁年龄组和65岁以上年龄组有统计学意义的下降.当患者按职业分层时,失业者和从事农业工作的人减少最多。
    结论:为了应对大流行,封锁和隔离等措施似乎降低了结核病的发病率。然而,这并不意味着真正的减少。真实发病率降低的根本原因需要进一步审查。研究结果为针对一种疾病设计的干预措施提供了初步探索,但对另一种疾病却产生了意想不到的结果。
    BACKGROUND: Various measures taken against the COVID-19 pandemic are not only effective in reducing the spread of the disease, but also lead to some unexpected results. This article regarded these measures as an intervention and explored their impact on the incidence of tuberculosis in Shantou, China.
    METHODS: The incidence rate and the surveillance data of tuberculosis from January 1st, 2018 to December 31st, 2021 were provided by the Shantou Tuberculosis Prevention and Control Institute. Data were divided into pre-pandemic period (January 1st, 2018 - December 31st, 2019) and pandemic periods (January 1st, 2020 - December 31st, 2021). The Interrupted Time Series (ITS) was used to analyze the trend of tuberculosis incidence prior to and during the COVID-19 epidemic.
    RESULTS: The results showed that the incidence of tuberculosis cases in Shantou decreased significantly (p < 0.05) during the pandemic as compared to that prior to the pandemic. Among them, the 45-64 age group and the 65 + age group have statistically significant declines. When patients were stratified by occupation, the unemployed and those working in agriculture reduced the most.
    CONCLUSIONS: In response to the pandemic, measures like lockdowns and quarantines seem to have reduced tuberculosis incidence. However, this does not imply a true decrease. Underlying causes for the reduced true incidence need further scrutiny. Findings offer a preliminary exploration of interventions designed for one disease but functioning as unexpected results for another.
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