pandemic

大流行
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在第一波COVID-19疫情期间,中国表现出了对流行病预防和控制的坚定承诺。本案例研究集中在Z大学,在疫情严重时采取封闭管理,通过对10名学生的访谈,考察了COVID-19对学生心理和行为的影响。研究表明,虽然学生认为疫情期间的封闭式管理在一定程度上提高了安全性,促进了学习参与度,这种流行病也对他们的身体健康产生不利影响,心理学,和社交生活。这些影响包括身体健康恶化,关于大学生活的叛逆和沮丧的感觉,以及对未来工作稳定性的担忧和愿望。在讨论中,我们建议高等教育机构可以利用这些信息来制定政策和程序,特别是关于心理健康和风险沟通,不仅在当前的大流行期间,而且在未来的紧急情况或灾难情况下。
    During the first wave of COVID-19, China demonstrated a strong commitment to epidemic prevention and control. This case study focuses on Z University, which adopted closed management when the epidemic was serious, and examines the influence of COVID-19 on students\' psychology and behavior through interviews with 10 students. The research reveals that while students perceive closed management during the epidemic as enhancing safety and promoting learning engagement to some extent, the epidemic also has adverse effects on their physical health, psychology, and social life. These impacts included deteriorating physical health, feelings of rebellion and depression regarding college life, alongside concerns and aspirations regarding future job stability. In the discussion, we suggest that higher education institutions can utilize this information to shape policies and procedures, particularly concerning mental health and risk communication, not only during the current pandemic but also in future emergency or disaster scenarios.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:2019年冠状病毒病(COVID-19)大流行对医疗保健服务的各个方面产生了重大影响,包括紧急护理服务。医护人员在照顾可能感染COVID-19的患者时面临精神问题和体力消耗。了解急诊科(ED)医护人员在COVID-19大流行期间的经验和观点对于提供循证干预措施和策略以减轻对急诊护理服务的影响至关重要。这项研究旨在调查在COVID-19大流行期间,急诊医护人员在急诊护理服务方面的经验,从而为所面临的挑战提供宝贵的见解。
    方法:本研究采用横断面研究设计。数据来自2021年11月15日至2021年12月30日在土耳其9家不同医院工作的256名ED医护人员。数据采用描述性统计分析。
    结果:共有256名参与者被纳入研究。在参与者中,58.6%是护士,19.5%是ED医生,和21.9%为紧急医疗技术人员。此外,67.2%的参与者感染了COVID-19,几乎所有人(94.1%)都受到大流行过程的心理影响。结果发现,85.2%的ED医护人员因成为医护人员而感到被社会排斥,71.9%不得不与家人分开。在此期间,护士与家人的分离率最高(78%)。
    结论:在大流行期间,超过一半的急诊室医护人员在获取防护设备时遇到问题,并由于COVID-19传播的风险而与家人分离。尽管由于大流行开始时的限制,急诊就诊次数有所减少,随着限制的取消,ED访问再次增加。
    BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has significantly impacted various aspects of healthcare services, including emergency care services. Healthcare staff face mental issues and physical exertion when caring for patients potentially infected with COVID-19. Understanding the experiences and perspectives of emergency department (ED) healthcare staff during the COVID-19 pandemic is essential to inform evidence-based interventions and strategies to mitigate the impact on emergency care services. This study aims to investigate the experiences of ED healthcare staff regarding emergency care services during the COVID-19 pandemic, thus providing valuable insights into the challenges faced.
    METHODS: This study utilized a cross-sectional study design. Data were collected from 256 ED healthcare staff working in nine different hospitals located in Turkey between November 15, 2021, and December 30, 2021. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics.
    RESULTS: A total of 256 participants were included in the study. Of the participants, 58.6% were nurses, 19.5% were ED doctors, and 21.9% were emergency medical technicians. In addition, 67.2% of the participants were infected with COVID-19, and almost all of them (94.1%) were psychologically affected by the pandemic process. It was found that 85.2% of ED healthcare staff felt excluded by society due to being healthcare staff and 71.9% had to be separated from their families. Nurses were separated from their families at the highest rate (78%) during this period.
    CONCLUSIONS: More than half of the ED healthcare staff had problems accessing protective equipment and were separated from their families during the pandemic due to the risk of COVID-19 transmission. Although the number of ED visits decreased because of restrictions at the beginning of the pandemic, ED visits increased again with the abolition of restrictions.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    症状监测是对基于测试的COVID-19监测的潜在廉价补充。通过加强对COVID-19样疾病(CLI)的监测,可以促进有针对性的快速干预措施,从而预防COVID-19暴发,而无需主要依靠检测。
    本研究旨在评估确认的SARS-CoV-2感染与大学和县环境中自我报告和医疗保健提供者报告的CLI之间的时间关系,分别。
    我们收集了康奈尔大学(2020-2021年)和汤普金斯县卫生局(2020-2022年)的COVID-19检测和症状报告监测数据。我们使用负二项和线性回归模型将确认的COVID-19病例数和阳性测试率与CLI率时间序列相关联,滞后的COVID-19病例或比率,和星期几作为自变量。使用格兰杰因果关系和似然比检验确定了最佳滞后期。
    在模拟本科生案例时,CLI率(P=.003)和CLI暴露率(P<.001)与COVID-19试验阳性率显著相关,线性模型无滞后。在县一级,在线性(P<.001)和负二项模型(P=.005)中,卫生保健提供者报告的CLI率与SARS-CoV-2试验阳性显著相关,且滞后3天.
    大学校园中综合征监测与COVID-19病例之间的实时相关性表明,症状报告是COVID-19监测测试的可行替代或补充。在县一级,综合征监测也是COVID-19病例的领先指标,使快速行动,以减少传输。进一步的研究应该在其他环境中使用综合征监测来调查COVID-19的风险,例如低收入和中等收入国家等低资源环境。
    UNASSIGNED: Syndromic surveillance represents a potentially inexpensive supplement to test-based COVID-19 surveillance. By strengthening surveillance of COVID-19-like illness (CLI), targeted and rapid interventions can be facilitated that prevent COVID-19 outbreaks without primary reliance on testing.
    UNASSIGNED: This study aims to assess the temporal relationship between confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections and self-reported and health care provider-reported CLI in university and county settings, respectively.
    UNASSIGNED: We collected aggregated COVID-19 testing and symptom reporting surveillance data from Cornell University (2020-2021) and Tompkins County Health Department (2020-2022). We used negative binomial and linear regression models to correlate confirmed COVID-19 case counts and positive test rates with CLI rate time series, lagged COVID-19 cases or rates, and day of the week as independent variables. Optimal lag periods were identified using Granger causality and likelihood ratio tests.
    UNASSIGNED: In modeling undergraduate student cases, the CLI rate (P=.003) and rate of exposure to CLI (P<.001) were significantly correlated with the COVID-19 test positivity rate with no lag in the linear models. At the county level, the health care provider-reported CLI rate was significantly correlated with SARS-CoV-2 test positivity with a 3-day lag in both the linear (P<.001) and negative binomial model (P=.005).
    UNASSIGNED: The real-time correlation between syndromic surveillance and COVID-19 cases on a university campus suggests symptom reporting is a viable alternative or supplement to COVID-19 surveillance testing. At the county level, syndromic surveillance is also a leading indicator of COVID-19 cases, enabling quick action to reduce transmission. Further research should investigate COVID-19 risk using syndromic surveillance in other settings, such as low-resource settings like low- and middle-income countries.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:儿童通常被认为是呼吸道病毒传播的主要驱动因素,但是SARS-CoV-2的出现挑战了这种模式。人类鼻病毒(RV)在整个大流行期间继续共同传播,允许在SARS-CoV-2人群免疫力较低的时期,直接比较这些病毒在家庭中的年龄特异性传染性和易感性。
    方法:在2020年8月至2021年7月期间,对有孩子的家庭进行了≥23周的前瞻性监测。在家庭中出现呼吸道症状时,开始了爆发研究,包括对所有家庭成员进行问卷调查和重复的鼻腔自我抽样。通过PCR测试拭子。比较了SARS-CoV-2和RV之间按年龄分层的家庭内二次发作率(SARs)。
    结果:307个家庭参与,包括582名儿童和627名成人。SARS-CoV-2的总体SAR低于RV(aOR0.55),并且两种病毒之间的年龄分布不同(p<0.001)。家庭暴露后,与RV相比,儿童感染SARS-CoV-2的可能性显着降低(aOR0.16),而这在成人中相反(aOR1.71)。
    结论:在家庭中,对SARS-CoV-2和RV的年龄特异性易感性不同,并导致这些病原体之间在家庭传播方面的差异。这突出了表征特定年龄传播风险的重要性,特别是对于新出现的感染,指导适当的感染控制干预措施。
    OBJECTIVE: Children are generally considered main drivers of transmission for respiratory viruses, but the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 challenged this paradigm. Human rhinovirus (RV) continued to co-circulate throughout the pandemic, allowing for direct comparison of age-specific infectivity and susceptibility within households between these viruses during a time of low SARS-CoV-2 population immunity.
    METHODS: Households with children were prospectively monitored for ≥23 weeks between August 2020 and July 2021. Upon onset of respiratory symptoms in a household, an outbreak study was initiated, including questionnaires and repeated nasal self-sampling in all household members. Swabs were tested by PCR. Age-stratified within-household secondary attack rates (SARs) were compared between SARS-CoV-2 and RV.
    RESULTS: 307 households participated including 582 children and 627 adults. Overall SAR was lower for SARS-CoV-2 than for RV (aOR 0.55) and age-distributions differed between both viruses (p<0.001). Following household exposure, children were significantly less likely to become infected with SARS-CoV-2 compared to RV (aOR 0.16), whereas this was opposite in adults (aOR 1.71).
    CONCLUSIONS: In households, age-specific susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 and RV differs and drives differences in household transmission between these pathogens. This highlights the importance of characterizing age-specific transmission risks, particularly for emerging infections, to guide appropriate infection control interventions.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    COVID-19大流行促使全球采取各种政策应对措施,拉丁美洲面临着独特的挑战。仔细检查这些政策对卫生系统的影响至关重要,尤其是在玻利维亚,关于政策执行和结果的信息有限。
    为了描述COVID-19的检测趋势,并评估检疫措施对科恰班巴这些趋势的影响,玻利维亚。
    利用科恰班巴部门卫生服务2020-2022年期间的COVID-19测试数据。首先估计卫生系统部门的分层测试率,然后使用准Poisson回归模型进行中断的时间序列分析,以评估检疫对激增期间病例缓解的影响。
    公共部门报告的测试比例更高(65%),其次是私营部门(23%),测试次数几乎是公共社会保障部门(11%)的两倍。在时间序列分析中,与没有或减少隔离政策的时期相比,观察到隔离政策的实施与COVID-19病例阳性率斜率下降之间存在相关性.
    这项研究强调了当地卫生系统的差异以及严格的检疫措施在遏制科恰班巴地区COVID-19传播方面的有效性。调查结果强调了措施强度和持续时间的重要性,为玻利维亚及其他国家提供宝贵的经验教训。随着全球社会从这场大流行中吸取教训,这些见解对于形成有弹性和有效的卫生政策反应至关重要。
    主要发现:这些发现强调了严格的检疫措施在管理传染病暴发方面的重要性,为全球决策者制定有效的公共卫生干预措施提供有价值的见解。增加的知识:通过在特定的拉丁美洲背景下对测试差异和检疫政策的有效性进行详细分析,我们的研究填补了理解它们对卫生系统反应和疾病控制影响的关键空白.全球卫生对政策和行动的影响:调查结果强调了严格的检疫措施在管理传染病暴发中的重要性。为全球决策者制定有效的公共卫生干预措施提供有价值的见解。
    UNASSIGNED: The COVID-19 pandemic prompted varied policy responses globally, with Latin America facing unique challenges. A detailed examination of these policies\' impacts on health systems is crucial, particularly in Bolivia, where information about policy implementation and outcomes is limited.
    UNASSIGNED: To describe the COVID-19 testing trends and evaluate the effects of quarantine measures on these trends in Cochabamba, Bolivia.
    UNASSIGNED: Utilizing COVID-19 testing data from the Cochabamba Department Health Service for the 2020-2022 period. Stratified testing rates in the health system sectors were first estimated followed by an interrupted time series analysis using a quasi-Poisson regression model for assessing the quarantine effects on the mitigation of cases during surge periods.
    UNASSIGNED: The public sector reported the larger percentage of tests (65%), followed by the private sector (23%) with almost double as many tests as the public-social security sector (11%). In the time series analysis, a correlation between the implementation of quarantine policies and a decrease in the slope of positive rates of COVID-19 cases was observed compared to periods without or with reduced quarantine policies.
    UNASSIGNED: This research underscores the local health system disparities and the effectiveness of stringent quarantine measures in curbing COVID-19 transmission in the Cochabamba region. The findings stress the importance of the measures\' intensity and duration, providing valuable lessons for Bolivia and beyond. As the global community learns from the pandemic, these insights are critical for shaping resilient and effective health policy responses.
    Main findings: The findings highlight the importance of stringent quarantine measures in managing infectious disease outbreaks, offering valuable insights for policymakers worldwide in strategizing effective public health interventions.Added knowledge: By providing a detailed analysis of testing disparities and quarantine policies’ effectiveness within a specific Latin American context, our research fills a critical gap in understanding their impacts on health system responses and disease control.Global health impact for policy and action: The findings highlight the importance of stringent quarantine measures in managing infectious disease outbreaks, offering valuable insights for policymakers worldwide in strategizing effective public health interventions.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在回顾视图中,这篇综述研究了COVID时代毛霉菌病对卫生工作者和研究人员的影响。由未确定的潜在病理学和有限的案例研究引起的诊断和治疗挑战增加了医疗保健系统的压力。毛霉菌病,由环境霉菌引起的,对COVID-19患者构成重大威胁,特别是那些有合并症和免疫系统受损的人。由于各种传染性毛霉病的原因和区域相关的危险因素,这种疾病的发病率正在全球上升。在许多国家,毛霉菌病的数据仍然很少,强调迫切需要对其流行病学和流行进行更广泛的研究。这篇综述探讨了COVID-19疾病与毛霉菌病病理之间的关系,基于真菌剂生化成分的潜在未来诊断技术。据报道,ICU中使用的药物和通气患者的生命支持,揭示了管理这种双重冲击的挑战。为了制定更有效的治疗策略,通过“务实”多中心试验和登记处确定新的药理靶点至关重要。在没有阳性真菌学培养数据的情况下,早期临床检测,及时治疗,和组织活检对于确认真菌剂的特定形态特征至关重要。这篇评论深入研究了历史,病原体,和毛霉菌病的发病机理,其在COVID或免疫受损个体中的机会主义性质,以及治疗学的最新进展。此外,它为未来药物开发的潜在药理靶点提供了前瞻性观点.
    In a retrospective view, this review examines the impact of mucormycosis on health workers and researchers during the COVID era. The diagnostic and treatment challenges arising from unestablished underlying pathology and limited case studies add strain to healthcare systems. Mucormycosis, caused by environmental molds, poses a significant threat to COVID-19 patients, particularly those with comorbidities and compromised immune systems. Due to a variety of infectious Mucorales causes and regionally related risk factors, the disease\'s incidence is rising globally. Data on mucormycosis remains scarce in many countries, highlighting the urgent need for more extensive research on its epidemiology and prevalence. This review explores the associations between COVID-19 disease and mucormycosis pathology, shedding light on potential future diagnostic techniques based on the fungal agent\'s biochemical components. Medications used in ICUs and for life support in ventilated patients have been reported, revealing the challenge of managing this dual onslaught. To develop more effective treatment strategies, it is crucial to identify novel pharmacological targets through \"pragmatic\" multicenter trials and registries. In the absence of positive mycology culture data, early clinical detection, prompt treatment, and tissue biopsy are essential to confirm the specific morphologic features of the fungal agent. This review delves into the history, pathogens, and pathogenesis of mucormycosis, its opportunistic nature in COVID or immunocompromised individuals, and the latest advancements in therapeutics. Additionally, it offers a forward-looking perspective on potential pharmacological targets for future drug development.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目标:在COVID-19大流行期间,一些国家的饮食失调表现出现了前所未有的上升。我们通过分析超过5年的全国精神病患者来探索这种现象,控制人口变量。
    方法:我们回顾性分析了2017年至2021年在新西兰进行主要精神病诊断的所有住院患者,使用泊松回归计算诊断的入院率。在大流行之前和期间。使用Fisher精确检验和泊松建模,针对人工收集的进食障碍入院样本验证了国家数据.
    结果:在大流行期间,进食障碍入院率显着上升(RR1.48,p<0.0001),而其他诊断保持不变或略有下降。10至19岁女性的神经性厌食症增加,10-14岁年龄组持续升高。与流行病相关的增长对毛利人来说更为显著(RR2.55),当地的波利尼西亚人,与非毛利人(RR1.43)相比。
    结论:在COVID-19大流行期间,进食障碍医院就诊增加,而其他精神病患者到医院的报告相对没有变化。可能的驱动程序包括中断的例程,医疗保健障碍,改变了社交网络,增加社交媒体的使用。临床服务需要额外的资源来管理增加的疾病负担,特别是在脆弱的儿科和土著居民中。将需要持续监测,以确定与大流行有关的临床需求的时程。
    OBJECTIVE: An unprecedented rise in eating disorder presentations has been documented in several countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. We explored this phenomenon by analyzing nationwide psychiatric admissions over 5 years, controlling for demographic variables.
    METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed all hospitalizations in New Zealand with a primary psychiatric diagnosis from 2017 to 2021, using Poisson regression to calculate admission rates by diagnosis, before and during the pandemic. Using Fisher\'s exact test and Poisson modeling, national data were validated against a manually collected sample of eating disorder admissions.
    RESULTS: Eating disorder admissions rose significantly during the pandemic (RR 1.48, p < 0.0001), while other diagnoses remained unchanged or decreased slightly. Anorexia nervosa in 10 to 19-year-old females drove increases, with persistent elevations noted in the 10-14 age group. Pandemic-associated increases were more striking for Māori (RR 2.55), the indigenous Polynesian population, compared with non-Māori (RR 1.43).
    CONCLUSIONS: Eating disorder hospital presentations increased during the COVID-19 pandemic, while other psychiatric presentations to hospital remained relatively unchanged. Possible drivers include disrupted routines, barriers to healthcare access, altered social networks, and increased social media use. Clinical services require additional resources to manage the increased disease burden, especially in vulnerable pediatric and indigenous populations. Ongoing monitoring will be required to establish the time-course of pandemic-related clinical demand.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:指南推荐对初始氧疗反应不足的急性失代偿性心力衰竭(ADHF)患者使用无创正压通气(NPPV)。在日本2019年冠状病毒病大流行期间,由于气溶胶传播的担忧,急诊部门(ED)中的NPPV使用受到限制。这项研究比较了大流行之前和期间ADHF患者的呼吸管理和临床结果。
    结果:这项回顾性队列研究是在日本的一个中心进行的,使用2019年9月至11月(大流行之前)和2020年9月至11月(大流行期间)的医院数据。包括诊断为ADHF的患者。对标准氧疗无反应的患者进行插管或开始NPPV治疗。主要结局指标是死亡后出院。次要结果是住院时间和医疗费用。该研究包括大流行前的37例患者和大流行期间的36例患者。两组之间的生命体征或实验室数据没有显着差异。NPPV利用率从26(70.3%)下降到7(19.4%)(P<0.01)。两名患者在两个时期都需要插管,差异无统计学意义(P=0.98)。死亡后出院时无显著组间差异(1/36[2.7%]vs.1/37[2.7%];P=0.19),住院时间(17.5vs.19.0天;P=0.65),和医疗费用(57.590vs.57.600日元;P=0.65)。
    结论:尽管在大流行之前和期间NPPV的使用大幅减少,死亡后出院没有显着差异,住院,或医疗费用。
    OBJECTIVE: Guidelines recommend non-invasive positive pressure ventilation (NPPV) for patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) with an inadequate response to initial oxygen therapy. During Japan\'s coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, NPPV use in emergency departments (EDs) was limited due to aerosol-spreading concerns. This study compared the respiratory management and clinical outcomes of patients with ADHF in EDs before and during the pandemic.
    RESULTS: This retrospective cohort study was conducted at a single centre in Japan using hospital data from September to November 2019 (before the pandemic) and September to November 2020 (during the pandemic). Patients diagnosed with ADHF were included. Patients not responding to standard oxygen therapy were intubated or started on NPPV therapy. The primary outcome measure was discharge after death. The secondary outcomes were length of hospital stay and medical expenses. The study included 37 patients before the pandemic and 36 during the pandemic. No significant differences were found in vital signs or laboratory data between the groups. NPPV utilization decreased significantly from 26 (70.3%) to 7 (19.4%) (P < 0.01). Two patients required intubation during both periods, with no significant differences (P = 0.98). No significant intergroup disparities were observed in discharge after death (1/36 [2.7%] vs. 1/37 [2.7%]; P = 0.19), length of hospital stay (17.5 vs. 19.0 days; P = 0.65), and medical expenses (57 590 vs. 57 600 yen; P = 0.65).
    CONCLUSIONS: Despite a large decrease in NPPV use before and during the pandemic, there were no significant differences in discharge after death, hospital stay, or medical expenses.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    讨论了COVID-19对阿根廷副球菌病(PCM)的影响以及大流行产生的后果。从2018年到大流行宣布后的3年,285名经过证实的PCM患者被登记。没有记录两种疾病之间的关联。PCM频率在2020年降至极低水平。强制性的社会隔离以及在大流行情况下产生的情感和心理影响导致诊断延迟,严重传播病例,以及随后几年诊断的其他挑战。由于临床表现的重叠,应考虑可能的诊断不足,怀疑指数低,缺乏敏感的诊断工具。
    The impact of COVID-19 on paracoccidioidomycosis (PCM) in Argentina and the consequences generated by the pandemic are discussed. From 2018 to 3 years after the pandemic declaration, 285 proven PCM patients were registered. No association between both diseases was documented. PCM frequency decreased to extremely low levels in 2020. Mandatory social isolation and the emotional and psychological effects generated under pandemic circumstances led to delays in diagnosis, severe disseminated cases, and other challenges for diagnosis in subsequent years. Probable underdiagnosis should be considered due to the overlap of clinical manifestations, the low index of suspicion and the lack of sensitive diagnostic tools.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:2019年冠状病毒病(COVID-19),全球公共卫生危机,尽管采取了预防措施,但仍继续构成挑战。新冠肺炎病例的每日上升令人担忧,测试过程既耗时又昂贵。虽然已经建立了几个模型来预测COVID-19患者的死亡率,只有少数人表现出足够的准确性。机器学习算法为数据驱动的临床结果预测提供了一种有前途的方法,超越传统的统计建模。利用机器学习(ML)算法可能为预测埃塞俄比亚住院COVID-19患者的死亡率提供解决方案。因此,本研究的目的是开发和验证机器学习模型,以准确预测埃塞俄比亚COVID-19住院患者的死亡率.
    方法:我们的研究包括分析埃塞俄比亚公立医院收治的COVID-19患者的电子病历。具体来说,我们开发了7种不同的机器学习模型来预测COVID-19患者的死亡率.这些模型包括J48决策树,随机森林(RF),k-最近邻域(k-NN),多层感知器(MLP),朴素贝叶斯(NB),极限梯度提升(XGBoost),和逻辑回归(LR)。然后,我们使用来自696名患者队列的数据通过统计分析比较了这些模型的性能。为了评估模型的有效性,我们利用了从混淆矩阵导出的度量,如灵敏度,特异性,精度,和接收机工作特性(ROC)。
    结果:本研究共纳入696名患者,女性人数较多(440名患者,占63.2%)与男性相比。参与者的平均年龄为35.0岁,四分位数间距为18-79.进行不同的特征选择程序后,检查了23个特征,并被确定为死亡率的预测因子,确定了性别,重症监护病房(ICU)入院,饮酒/成瘾是COVID-19死亡率的三大预测因素。另一方面,失去气味,失去味道,高血压被确定为COVID-19死亡率的三个最低预测因子。实验结果表明,k-近邻(k-NN)算法的性能优于其他机器学习算法,达到95.25%的准确度,灵敏度为95.30%,精度为92.7%,特异性为93.30%,F1得分为93.98%,接受者工作特征(ROC)得分为96.90%。这些发现突出了k-NN算法在根据选定特征预测COVID-19结果方面的有效性。
    结论:我们的研究开发了一种创新模型,该模型利用医院数据准确预测COVID-19患者的死亡风险。该模型的主要目标是优先考虑高危患者的早期治疗,并在大流行期间优化紧张的医疗保健系统。通过将机器学习与全面的医院数据库集成,我们的模型有效地对患者的死亡风险进行了分类,实现有针对性的医疗干预和改进的资源管理。在测试的各种方法中,K最近邻(KNN)算法表现出最高的精度,允许早期识别高危患者。通过KNN特征识别,我们确定了23个显著有助于预测COVID-19死亡率的预测因子.前五名预测因素是性别(女性),重症监护病房(ICU)入院,饮酒,吸烟,还有头痛和寒战的症状.这一进展在大流行期间加强医疗保健成果和决策方面具有巨大的前景。通过提供服务并根据确定的预测因素对患者进行优先级排序,医疗保健设施和提供者可以提高个人的生存机会。该模型提供了宝贵的见解,可以指导医疗保健专业人员分配资源并为风险最高的人提供适当的护理。
    BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a global public health crisis, continues to pose challenges despite preventive measures. The daily rise in COVID-19 cases is concerning, and the testing process is both time-consuming and costly. While several models have been created to predict mortality in COVID-19 patients, only a few have shown sufficient accuracy. Machine learning algorithms offer a promising approach to data-driven prediction of clinical outcomes, surpassing traditional statistical modeling. Leveraging machine learning (ML) algorithms could potentially provide a solution for predicting mortality in hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Ethiopia. Therefore, the aim of this study is to develop and validate machine-learning models for accurately predicting mortality in COVID-19 hospitalized patients in Ethiopia.
    METHODS: Our study involved analyzing electronic medical records of COVID-19 patients who were admitted to public hospitals in Ethiopia. Specifically, we developed seven different machine learning models to predict COVID-19 patient mortality. These models included J48 decision tree, random forest (RF), k-nearest neighborhood (k-NN), multi-layer perceptron (MLP), Naïve Bayes (NB), eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and logistic regression (LR). We then compared the performance of these models using data from a cohort of 696 patients through statistical analysis. To evaluate the effectiveness of the models, we utilized metrics derived from the confusion matrix such as sensitivity, specificity, precision, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC).
    RESULTS: The study included a total of 696 patients, with a higher number of females (440 patients, accounting for 63.2%) compared to males. The median age of the participants was 35.0 years old, with an interquartile range of 18-79. After conducting different feature selection procedures, 23 features were examined, and identified as predictors of mortality, and it was determined that gender, Intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and alcohol drinking/addiction were the top three predictors of COVID-19 mortality. On the other hand, loss of smell, loss of taste, and hypertension were identified as the three lowest predictors of COVID-19 mortality. The experimental results revealed that the k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) algorithm outperformed than other machine learning algorithms, achieving an accuracy of 95.25%, sensitivity of 95.30%, precision of 92.7%, specificity of 93.30%, F1 score 93.98% and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) score of 96.90%. These findings highlight the effectiveness of the k-NN algorithm in predicting COVID-19 outcomes based on the selected features.
    CONCLUSIONS: Our study has developed an innovative model that utilizes hospital data to accurately predict the mortality risk of COVID-19 patients. The main objective of this model is to prioritize early treatment for high-risk patients and optimize strained healthcare systems during the ongoing pandemic. By integrating machine learning with comprehensive hospital databases, our model effectively classifies patients\' mortality risk, enabling targeted medical interventions and improved resource management. Among the various methods tested, the K-nearest neighbors (KNN) algorithm demonstrated the highest accuracy, allowing for early identification of high-risk patients. Through KNN feature identification, we identified 23 predictors that significantly contribute to predicting COVID-19 mortality. The top five predictors are gender (female), intensive care unit (ICU) admission, alcohol drinking, smoking, and symptoms of headache and chills. This advancement holds great promise in enhancing healthcare outcomes and decision-making during the pandemic. By providing services and prioritizing patients based on the identified predictors, healthcare facilities and providers can improve the chances of survival for individuals. This model provides valuable insights that can guide healthcare professionals in allocating resources and delivering appropriate care to those at highest risk.
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