背景:肠道传染病(IIDs)在中国是一个重要的公共卫生问题,IID的发生率和分布因地区而异,并受各种因素的影响。本研究旨在描述中国大陆IIDs的时空趋势,并探讨社会经济和气象因素与IIDs之间的关系。
方法:在本研究中,使用从中国疾病预防控制中心获得的数据对2006年至2017年中国大陆的IID进行了分析。采用时空映射技术来可视化IID的时空分布。此外,利用平均中心和标准偏差椭圆分析来检查IID的空间趋势。为了调查IID与气象和社会经济变量之间的潜在关联,在贝叶斯框架内采用了时空零膨胀泊松和负二项模型。
结果:在研究期间,大多数IID的发生率大幅减少,不同疾病的减少不均匀。IIDs和影响因素之间存在显著的区域差异。总的来说,无害卫生厕所(ARHST)的使用率与霍乱风险呈正相关(RR:1.73,95CI:1.08-2.83),细菌性痢疾(RR:1.32,95CI:1.06-1.63),和其他肠道传染病(RR:1.88,95CI:1.52-2.36),与伤寒呈负相关(RR:0.66,95CI:0.51-0.92),副伤寒(RR:0.71,95CI:0.55-0.92)。城市化仅与戊型肝炎相关(RR:2.48,95CI:1.12-5.72)。GDP与副伤寒呈负相关(RR:0.82,95CI:0.70-0.97),和细菌性痢疾(RR:0.77,95CI:0.68-0.88),和甲型肝炎(RR:0.84,95CI:0.73-0.97)。除阿米巴痢疾外,湿度与某些IIDs呈正相关(RR:1.64,95CI:1.23-2.17),而风速与大多数IID呈负相关。高降水与伤寒风险增加相关(RR:1.52,95CI:1.09-2.13),高温与伤寒风险增加相关(RR:2.82,95CI:2.06-3.89),副伤寒(RR:2.79,95CI:2.02-3.90),和HMFD(RR:1.34,95CI:1.01-1.77)。
结论:本研究系统地定量研究了社会经济和气象因素对IID的影响,这为未来的研究和指导政府规划提供了因果线索。
BACKGROUND: Intestinal infectious diseases (IIDs) are a significant public health issue in
China, and the incidence and distribution of IIDs vary greatly by region and are affected by various factors. This study aims to describe the spatio-temporal trends of IIDs in the Chinese mainland and investigate the association between socioeconomic and meteorological factors with IIDs.
METHODS: In this study, IIDs in mainland
China from 2006 to 2017 was analyzed using data obtained from the
China Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Spatio-temporal mapping techniques was employed to visualize the spatial and temporal distribution of IIDs. Additionally, mean center and standard deviational ellipse analyses were utilized to examine the spatial trends of IIDs. To investigate the potential associations between IIDs and meteorological and socioeconomic variables, spatiotemporal zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial models was employed within a Bayesian framework.
RESULTS: During the study period, the occurrence of most IIDs has dramatically reduced, with uneven reductions in different diseases. Significant regional differences were found among IIDs and influential factors. Overall, the access rate to harmless sanitary toilets (ARHST) was positively associated with the risk of cholera (RR: 1.73, 95%CI: 1.08-2.83), bacillary dysentery (RR: 1.32, 95%CI: 1.06-1.63), and other intestinal infectious diseases (RR: 1.88, 95%CI: 1.52-2.36), and negatively associated with typhoid fever (RR: 0.66, 95%CI: 0.51-0.92), paratyphoid fever (RR: 0.71, 95%CI: 0.55-0.92). Urbanization is only associated with hepatitis E (RR: 2.48, 95%CI: 1.12-5.72). And GDP was negatively correlated with paratyphoid fever (RR: 0.82, 95%CI: 0.70-0.97), and bacillary dysentery (RR: 0.77, 95%CI: 0.68-0.88), and hepatitis A (RR: 0.84, 95%CI: 0.73-0.97). Humidity showed positive correlation with some IIDs except for amoebic dysentery (RR: 1.64, 95%CI: 1.23-2.17), while wind speed showed a negative correlation with most IIDs. High precipitation was associated with an increased risk of typhoid fever (RR: 1.52, 95%CI: 1.09-2.13), and high temperature was associated with an increased risk of typhoid fever (RR: 2.82, 95%CI: 2.06-3.89), paratyphoid fever (RR: 2.79, 95%CI: 2.02-3.90), and HMFD (RR: 1.34, 95%CI: 1.01-1.77).
CONCLUSIONS: This research systematically and quantitatively studied the effect of socioeconomic and meteorological factors on IIDs, which provided causal clues for future studies and guided government planning.