Trajectory analysis

轨迹分析
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:代谢综合征(MetS)的二元诊断未能准确评估其严重程度,MetS严重程度与衰弱进展之间的关联仍未充分阐明。本研究旨在阐明中国中老年人群代谢综合征的严重程度与衰弱进展之间的关系。
    方法:纳入2011-2018年中国健康与退休纵向研究(CHARLS)的参与者进行纵向分析。该研究采用基于32项健康缺陷的虚弱指数(FI)来诊断虚弱并评估FI轨迹。使用年龄-性别-种族特异性MetS评分模型(MetS评分)评估中国成年人的代谢综合征严重程度。使用以下公式计算2012年至2015年的累积MetS评分:(第1波中的MetS评分+第3波中的MetS评分)/2×时间(2015年至2012年)。MetS得分之间的关联,累积MetS得分,使用Cox回归/逻辑回归评估虚弱的风险和轨迹,和线性混合模型。利用限制性三次样条(RCS)模型来检测潜在的非线性关联。
    结果:较高的MetS评分与虚弱风险增加(HR每1SD增加=1.205;95CI:1.14至1.273)和FI轨迹加速(β每1SD增加=0.113/年;95CI:0.075至0.15/年)显著相关。使用累积MetS评分评估MetS评分的变化表明,累积MetS评分每增加1SD,就会使虚弱的风险增加22.2%(OR=1.222;95CI:1.133至1.319),并加快FI的增加速度(β=0.098每年;95CI:0.058至0.138每年)。RCS模型结果表明MetS评分和累积MetS评分与衰弱风险之间存在剂量-反应曲线关系。分层分析显示各亚组之间的一致性。交互作用结果表明,在男性和60岁以下的个体中,MetS评分可能会加速FI的增加,这两个模型的发现是一致的。
    结论:我们的发现强调了中老年人代谢综合征的严重程度与虚弱进展之间的正相关,强调迫切需要早期识别MetS和有针对性的干预措施,以降低虚弱的风险。
    BACKGROUND: The binary diagnosis of Metabolic Syndrome(MetS) fails to accurately evaluate its severity, and the association between MetS severity and frailty progression remains inadequately elucidated. This study aims to clarify the relationship between the severity of MetS and the progression of frailty among the middle-aged and elderly population in China.
    METHODS: Participants from the 2011-2018 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(CHARLS) were included for a longitudinal analysis. The study employs a frailty index(FI) based on 32 health deficits to diagnose frailty and to assess FI trajectories. An age-sex-ethnicity-specific MetS scoring model (MetS score) was used to assess metabolic syndrome severity in Chinese adults. The Cumulative MetS score from 2012 to 2015 was calculated using the formula: (MetS score in wave 1 + MetS score in wave 3) / 2 × time(2015 - 2012). The association between MetS score, Cumulative MetS score, and the risk and trajectory of frailty were evaluated using Cox regression/logistic regression, and linear mixed models. Restricted Cubic Splines(RCS) models were utilized to detect potential non-linear associations.
    RESULTS: A higher MetS score was significantly associated with an increased risk of frailty(HR per 1 SD increase = 1.205; 95%CI: 1.14 to 1.273) and an accelerated FI trajectory(β per 1 SD increase = 0.113 per year; 95%CI: 0.075 to 0.15 per year). Evaluating changes in MetS score using a Cumulative MetS score indicated that each 1 SD increase in the Cumulative MetS score increased the risk of frailty by 22.2%(OR = 1.222; 95%CI: 1.133 to 1.319) and accelerated the rate of increase in FI(β = 0.098 per year; 95%CI: 0.058 to 0.138 per year). RCS model results demonstrated a dose-response curve relationship between MetS score and Cumulative MetS score with frailty risk. Stratified analysis showed consistency across subgroups. The interaction results indicate that in males and individuals under aged 60, MetS score may accelerate the increase in FI, a finding consistent across both models.
    CONCLUSIONS: Our findings underscore the positive correlation between the severity of MetS and frailty progression in the middle-aged and elderly, highlighting the urgent need for early identification of MetS and targeted interventions to reduce the risk of frailty.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    生活满意度对老年人的幸福至关重要,影响生活的各个方面。它是动态的,需要细微差别的方法来准确地捕捉其轨迹。本研究旨在利用中国健康与退休纵向研究的纵向数据,探讨中国老年人生活满意度的不同轨迹和预测因素。采用潜在类别增长模型和增长混合模型来识别生活满意度的不同轨迹。开发了机器学习(ML)模型来预测不同的轨迹并识别不同轨迹的重要预测因子。确定了四种不同的生活满意度轨迹,展示随着时间的推移而变化的生活满意度的细微差别模式。ML模型,特别是随机森林,有效地预测了这些轨迹。情感体验(特别是幸福和孤独的频率),身体质量指数,自我报告健康状况是不同生活满意度轨迹的重要预测因素。我们的发现揭示了关注生活满意度持续较低的个人或群体并更加关注身心健康预测因素的重要性。我们的模型可能会指导未来的有针对性的预防性治疗。
    Life satisfaction is vital for older adults\' well-being, impacting various life aspects. It is dynamic, necessitating nuanced approaches to capture its trajectories accurately. This study aimed to explore the diverse trajectories and predictors of life satisfaction among older adults in China using longitudinal data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study. Latent class growth modeling and growth mixture modeling were employed to identify distinct trajectories of life satisfaction. Machine learning (ML) models were developed to predict different trajectories and identify important predictors of different trajectories. Four distinct trajectories of life satisfaction were identified, showcasing nuanced patterns of life satisfaction that changed over time. ML models, especially random forest, effectively predicted these trajectories. Emotional experiences (particularly the frequency of happiness and loneliness), body mass index, and self-report health emerged as significant predictors of different life satisfaction trajectories. Our finding revealed the importance of focusing on individuals or groups with consistently low life satisfaction and paying more attention to mental and physical health predictors. Our models might guide future targeted preventative treatments.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    糖尿病肾病(DKD)是终末期肾病(ESRD)的主要原因,其发病机制尚未明确。目前的研究表明,DKD涉及多种细胞类型和肾外因素,阐明发病机制和确定新的治疗靶点尤为重要。单细胞RNA测序(scRNA-seq)技术是在单细胞水平上对单个细胞的转录组进行高通量测序,这是一种通过比较遗传信息来探索疾病发展的有效技术,反映了细胞之间遗传信息的差异,识别不同的细胞亚群。越来越多的证据支持scRNA-seq在揭示糖尿病发病机制和加强我们对DKD分子机制的理解中的作用。这次我们回顾了scRNA-seq数据。然后,我们分析和讨论了scRNA-seq技术在DKD研究中的应用,包括细胞类型的注释,新细胞类型(或亚型)的鉴定,细胞间通讯的识别,细胞分化轨迹分析,基因表达检测,和分析基因调控网络,最后,我们探讨了scRNA-seq技术在DKD研究中的未来前景。
    Diabetic kidney disease (DKD) is the leading cause of end-stage renal disease (ESRD), and its pathogenesis has not been clarified. Current research suggests that DKD involves multiple cell types and extra-renal factors, and it is particularly important to clarify the pathogenesis and identify new therapeutic targets. Single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) technology is high-throughput sequencing of the transcriptomes of individual cells at the single-cell level, which is an effective technology for exploring the development of diseases by comparing genetic information, reflecting the differences in genetic information between cells, and identifying different cell subpopulations. Accumulating evidence supports the role of scRNA-seq in revealing the pathogenesis of diabetes and strengthening our understanding of the molecular mechanisms of DKD. We reviewed the scRNA-seq data this time. Then, we analyzed and discussed the applications of scRNA-seq technology in DKD research, including annotation of cell types, identification of novel cell types (or subtypes), identification of intercellular communication, analysis of cell differentiation trajectories, gene expression detection, and analysis of gene regulatory networks, and lastly, we explored the future perspectives of scRNA-seq technology in DKD research.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    分子模拟(MD)是生命科学中的一个重要研究领域,专注于理解原子尺度上生物分子相互作用的机制。蛋白质模拟,作为一个关键的子场,经常利用MD来实现,轨迹数据在药物发现中起着举足轻重的作用。高性能计算和深度学习技术的进步对于从大量轨迹数据中预测蛋白质属性变得流行和关键,对从复杂的仿真数据中提取数据特征和降维提出了挑战。同时,对维度背后的生物学机制提供有意义的解释是至关重要的。为了应对这一挑战,我们提出了一种新的无监督模型RevGraphVAMP来智能分析仿真轨迹。该模型基于马尔可夫过程(VAMP)的变分方法,并集成了图卷积神经网络和物理约束优化来增强学习性能。此外,我们引入关注机制来评估关键交互区域的重要性,促进分子机制的解释。与其他VAMPNets型号相比,我们的模型展示了有竞争力的表现,提高了状态转移预测的准确性,正如它在两个公共数据集和Shank3-Rap1复合体上的应用所证明的那样,这与自闭症谱系障碍有关。此外,它增强了不同子状态之间的降维区分,并为蛋白质结构表征提供了可解释的结果。
    Molecular dynamics simulation is a crucial research domain within the life sciences, focusing on comprehending the mechanisms of biomolecular interactions at atomic scales. Protein simulation, as a critical subfield, often utilizes MD for implementation, with trajectory data play a pivotal role in drug discovery. The advancement of high-performance computing and deep learning technology becomes popular and critical to predict protein properties from vast trajectory data, posing challenges regarding data features extraction from the complicated simulation data and dimensionality reduction. Simultaneously, it is essential to provide a meaningful explanation of the biological mechanism behind dimensionality. To tackle this challenge, we propose a new unsupervised model named RevGraphVAMP to intelligently analyze the simulation trajectory. This model is based on the variational approach for Markov processes (VAMP) and integrates graph convolutional neural networks and physical constraint optimization to enhance the learning performance. Additionally, we introduce attention mechanism to assess the importance of key interaction region, facilitating the interpretation of molecular mechanism. In comparison to other VAMPNets models, our model showcases competitive performance, improved accuracy in state transition prediction, as demonstrated through its application to two public datasets and the Shank3-Rap1 complex, which is associated with autism spectrum disorder. Moreover, it enhanced dimensionality reduction discrimination across different substates and provides interpretable results for protein structural characterization.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    细胞运动对于许多重要的生物学功能至关重要,在单细胞水平上都起着关键作用。例如在分裂或分化期间,在组织内的宏观层面,协调的迁移对于正确的形态发生至关重要。对各种病理过程也有影响,一个为所有人,癌症扩散。细胞迁移是一种复杂的现象,已经开发了多种实验方法,旨在独立解剖和分析其不同方面。并行,相应的分析程序和工具已经设计,以获得深刻的洞察力和解释实验结果。在这里,我们回顾了既定的实验技术,旨在研究细胞迁移的特定方面,并提出了广泛的历史以及用于细胞运动定量分析的尖端计算工具。
    Cellular movement is essential for many vital biological functions where it plays a pivotal role both at the single cell level, such as during division or differentiation, and at the macroscopic level within tissues, where coordinated migration is crucial for proper morphogenesis. It also has an impact on various pathological processes, one for all, cancer spreading. Cell migration is a complex phenomenon and diverse experimental methods have been developed aimed at dissecting and analysing its distinct facets independently. In parallel, corresponding analytical procedures and tools have been devised to gain deep insight and interpret experimental results. Here we review established experimental techniques designed to investigate specific aspects of cell migration and present a broad collection of historical as well as cutting-edge computational tools used in quantitative analysis of cell motion.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:在患有昼夜节律综合征的个体中,暴露于空气污染物与心血管疾病(CVD)轨迹之间的关系仍然没有定论。
    方法:空气污染物的个体暴露水平,包括空气动力学直径≤2.5μm的颗粒物(PM)(PM2.5),空气动力学直径≤10μm的PM(PM10),PM2.5吸光度,空气动力学直径在2.5μm和10μm之间的PM,二氧化氮(NO2),氮氧化物(NOx),和空气污染评分(总体空气污染物暴露),估计有48,850名来自英国生物库的昼夜节律综合征参与者。多状态回归模型用于估计暴露于空气污染物与从昼夜节律综合征到CVD/CVD亚型(包括冠心病[CHD],心房颤动[AF],心力衰竭[HF],和中风)和死亡。评估了CVD/CVD亚型在空气污染物与死亡之间的关联中的中介作用。
    结果:经过12年的平均随访时间,发生了12570例CVD,包括8192冠心病,1693AF,1085HF,和1600例中风病例。在多态模型中,PM2.5的每四分位数范围增量(危险比:1.08;95%置信区间:1.06,1.10),PM10(1.04;1.01,1.06),PM2.5吸光度(1.04;1.02,1.06),NO2(1.07;1.03,1.11),NOx(1.08;1.04,1.12),或空气污染评分(1.06;1.03,1.08)与从昼夜节律综合征到CVD的轨迹相关.观察到上述空气污染物与从昼夜节律综合征和CVD到死亡的轨迹之间的显着关联。CVD,尤其是CHD,显著介导了PM2.5、NO2、NOx、空气污染与死亡有关。
    结论:昼夜节律综合征期间长期暴露于空气污染物与随后的CVD和死亡相关。CHD是昼夜节律综合征期间暴露于空气污染物驱动的CVD进展中最突出的CVD亚型。我们的研究强调了控制空气污染物暴露和预防昼夜节律综合征患者CHD的重要性。
    BACKGROUND: The association between exposure to air pollutants and cardiovascular disease (CVD) trajectory in individuals with circadian syndrome remains inconclusive.
    METHODS: The individual exposure levels of air pollutants, including particulate matter (PM) with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5), PM with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 10 μm (PM10), PM2.5 absorbance, PM with aerodynamic diameter between 2.5 μm and 10 μm, nitrogen dioxide (NO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and air pollution score (overall air pollutants exposure), were estimated for 48,850 participants with circadian syndrome from the UK Biobank. Multistate regression models were employed to estimate associations between exposure to air pollutants and trajectories from circadian syndrome to CVD/CVD subtypes (including coronary heart disease [CHD], atrial fibrillation [AF], heart failure [HF], and stroke) and death. Mediation roles of CVD/CVD subtypes in the associations between air pollutants and death were evaluated.
    RESULTS: After a mean follow-up time over 12 years, 12,570 cases of CVD occurred, including 8192 CHD, 1693 AF, 1085 HF, and 1600 stroke cases. In multistate model, per-interquartile range increment in PM2.5 (hazard ratio: 1.08; 95 % confidence interval: 1.06, 1.10), PM10 (1.04; 1.01, 1.06), PM2.5 absorbance (1.04; 1.02, 1.06), NO2 (1.07; 1.03, 1.11), NOx (1.08; 1.04, 1.12), or air pollution score (1.06; 1.03, 1.08) was associated with trajectory from circadian syndrome to CVD. Significant associations between the above-mentioned air pollutants and trajectories from circadian syndrome and CVD to death were observed. CVD, particularly CHD, significantly mediated the associations of PM2.5, NO2, NOx, and air pollution score with death.
    CONCLUSIONS: Long-term exposure to air pollutants during circadian syndrome was associated with subsequent CVD and death. CHD emerged as the most prominent CVD subtype in CVD progression driven by exposure to air pollutants during circadian syndrome. Our study highlights the importance of controlling air pollutants exposure and preventing CHD in people with circadian syndrome.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:评估中国队列(2015-2022)中男孩和女孩的社会心理压力(PS)轨迹与青春期结局之间的关系。
    方法:每6个月对732名女孩和688名男孩的青春期结局进行体检。对应激性生活事件进行7次反复评估。基于组的轨迹模型拟合了来自5个来源的总PS和PS的最佳轨迹。考克斯模型根据年龄调整,BMI和社会经济因素用于评估相关性。
    结果:与“低”相比,逐渐下降的轨迹,“温和,总PS的逐渐下降轨迹与初潮晚有关(HR:0.816,95%CI:0.677-0.983),女童阴毛发育晚期(HR:0.729,95%CI:0.609-0.872)和腋毛发育晚期(HR:0.803,95%CI:0.661-0.975)。女孩跟着“高”,家庭生活中PS的上升然后下降的轨迹表明腋毛发育延迟(HR:0.752,95%CI:(0.571-0.990)。至于男生,“高”,从学术适应(HR:0.670,95%CI:0.476-0.945)和生活适应(HR:0.642,95%CI:0.445-0.925)的PS上升然后下降的轨迹与晚期腋毛发育相关。“温和的男孩,同伴关系中PS的逐渐下降轨迹有早期睾丸发育的风险(HR:1.353,95%CI:1.108-1.653)。
    结论:在女孩和男孩中,慢性PS可能与几种青春期体征的延迟发作有关。它也可能加速男孩的睾丸发育,表明其在早期和后期对青春期时间的不同影响。
    OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association between psychosocial stress (PS) trajectories and pubertal outcomes of girls and boys in a Chinese cohort (2015-2022).
    METHODS: Pubertal outcomes of 732 girls and 688 boys were physically examined every 6 months. Stressful life events were repeatedly assessed 7 times. Group-Based Trajectory Model was fitted for the optimum trajectories of total PS and PS from 5 sources. Cox model adjusted for age, BMI and socioeconomic factors was used to evaluate the association.
    RESULTS: Compared to the \"low, gradual decline\" trajectory, the \"moderate, gradual decline\" trajectory of total PS was associated with late menarche (HR: 0.816, 95% CI: 0.677-0.983), late pubic hair development (HR: 0.729, 95% CI: 0.609-0.872) and late axillary hair development (HR: 0.803, 95% CI: 0.661 - 0.975) in girls. Girls following the \"high, rise then decline\" trajectory of PS from family life demonstrated delayed axillary hair development (HR: 0.752, 95% CI: (0.571-0.990). As for boys, the \"high, rise then decline\" trajectory of PS from academic adaptation (HR: 0.670, 95% CI: 0.476 - 0.945) and life adaptation (HR: 0.642, 95% CI: 0.445 - 0.925) was associated with late axillary hair development. Boys in the \"moderate, gradual decline\" trajectory of PS from peer relationship was at risk of early testicular development (HR: 1.353, 95% CI: 1.108 - 1.653).
    CONCLUSIONS: Chronic PS may be associated with delayed onset of several pubertal signs in both girls and boys. It may also accelerate testicular development of boys, indicating its varying impact on pubertal timing during early and later stages.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:白细胞(WBC)在机体的炎症反应中起重要作用。蛛网膜下腔出血(SAH)患者入院时白细胞计数升高与预后不良相关。然而,住院期间基于反复WBC测量的纵向WBC轨迹的作用尚不清楚.我们探讨了不同WBC轨迹模式与住院死亡率之间的关系。
    方法:我们分析了2012年至2020年的连续SAH患者队列。基于组的轨迹建模(GBTM)用于根据患者在前4天的白细胞模式对患者进行分组。使用稳定的逆概率治疗加权(sIPTW)来平衡基线人口统计学和临床特征。我们使用Cox比例风险模型分析了WBC轨迹组与住院死亡率之间的关系。
    结果:总计,506例SAH患者纳入本回顾性队列。最终模型确定了两个不同的纵向WBC轨迹。在调整混杂因素后,多变量回归分析表明,纵向白细胞轨迹升高会增加住院死亡率的风险(风险比[HR],2.476;95%置信区间[CI]1.081-5.227;P=0.024),和(HR,2.472;95CI1.489-4.977;P=0.018)。
    结论:在SAH患者中,不同的临床相关组可以通过WBC轨迹分析进行鉴别.WBC计数轨迹-最初升高然后降低-可能导致SAH后院内死亡的风险增加。
    OBJECTIVE: White blood cells (WBC) play an important role in the inflammatory response of the body. Elevated WBC counts on admission in patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) correlate with a poor prognosis. However, the role of longitudinal WBC trajectories based on repeated WBC measurements during hospitalization remains unclear. We explored the association between different WBC trajectory patterns and in-hospital mortality.
    METHODS: We analyzed a cohort of consecutive patients with SAH between 2012 and 2020. Group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) was used to group the patients according to their white blood cell patterns over the first 4 days. Stabilized inverse probability treatment weighting (sIPTW) was used to balance baseline demographic and clinical characteristics. We analyzed the association between the WBC trajectory groups and in-hospital mortality using a Cox proportional hazards model.
    RESULTS: In total, 506 patients with SAH were included in this retrospective cohort. The final model identified two distinct longitudinal WBC trajectories. After adjusting for confounding factors, multivariate regression analysis suggested that an elevated longitudinal WBC trajectory increased the risk of in-hospital mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 2.476; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.081-5.227; P = 0.024) before sIPTW, and (HR, 2.472; 95%CI 1.489-4.977; P = 0.018) after sIPTW.
    CONCLUSIONS: In patients with SAH, different clinically relevant groups could be identified using WBC trajectory analysis. The WBC count trajectory-initially elevated and then decreased- may lead to an increased risk of in-hospital mortality following SAH.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:没有研究集中于LE8与癌症风险和死亡的关系。我们旨在研究LE8与死亡和癌症的关系。
    方法:分别对94733名51.42±12.46岁的成年人和77551名54.09±12.06岁的参与者进行纵向和轨迹分析。基线LE8根据美国心脏协会标准和潜在混合模型的三种轨迹模式分为三组。我们回顾了2006年至2020年期间的医疗记录和临床检查,以确认发生癌症。死亡信息是从省级生命统计办公室收集的。使用Cox模型。
    结果:在14年的随访中记录了12807例全因死亡和5060例癌症。相对于基线时LE8高的参与者,LE8水平较低的参与者死亡和癌症发生风险显著增加.随着LE8水平的降低,所有这些风险都有增加的趋势。同时,轨迹分析记录了大约10年后的7483例全因死亡和3037例癌症事件.LE8与死亡和癌症的关联与纵向研究相同。在亚型癌症分析中,LE8对结直肠癌风险有很强的影响。此外,LE8与死亡之间的切点是56.67,而LE8与偶发癌症之间的关联切点变为64.79。这些关联在年轻人中得到加强。
    结论:LE8与死亡和癌症风险显著相关,特别是对于年轻人。
    BACKGROUND: No study has concentrated on the association of LE8 with cancer risk and death. We aim to examine the association of LE8 with death and cancer.
    METHODS: A total of 94733 adults aged 51.42 ± 12.46 years and 77551 participants aged 54.09±12.06 years were enrolled in longitudinal and trajectory analysis respectively. Baseline LE8 was divided into three groups based on the American Heart Association criteria and three trajectory patterns by latent mixture models. We reviewed medical records and clinical examinations to confirm incident cancer during the period from 2006 to 2020. Death information was collected from provincial vital statistics offices. Cox models were used.
    RESULTS: 12807 all-cause deaths and 5060 cancers were documented during a 14-year follow-up. Relative to participants with high LE8 at baseline, participants with lower levels of LE8 have a significantly increased risk of mortality and incident cancer. All these risks have an increasing trend with LE8 level decreasing. Meanwhile, the trajectory analysis recorded 7483 all-cause deaths and 3037 incident cancers after approximately 10 years. The associations of LE8 with death and cancer were identical to the longitudinal study. In the subtype cancer analysis, LE8 has a strong effect on colorectal cancer risk. Moreover, the cut point is 56.67 in the association between LE8 and death, while the cut point altered to 64.79 in the association between LE8 and incident cancers. These associations were enhanced among younger adults.
    CONCLUSIONS: There was a significant association of LE8 with death and cancer risk, especially for the young population.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:甜菜网虫,Loxostege条,一种世界性的多种作物害虫,执行季节性迁移,导致亚洲周期性爆发,欧洲和北美。尽管在中国有很好的记录,中国之间的越境移民模式,俄罗斯和蒙古在很大程度上是未知的。我们根据30年的历史人口数据,对三个国家的硬皮乳杆菌定期暴发进行了阶段分析,分析了边界区域迁移过程中的风系统,并通过轨迹模拟在2008年爆发的案例研究中追踪迁徙路线。
    结果:在中国和蒙古之间观察到了高度同步的沙棘爆发年份,中国和西伯利亚东部,中国和西伯利亚西部,蒙古和西伯利亚东部,从1978年到2008年的西伯利亚东部和西伯利亚西部,表明这些地区之间可能存在跨界迁移。风在300-600米的高度,通常发生成人迁徙的地方,还显示了海拉(中国)西北风的高概率,赤塔(俄罗斯)和Choybalsan(蒙古),有利于成功的成年人从这些地区迁移到中国北部和东北。反向轨迹分析进一步表明,2008年引起第二代幼虫严重爆发的第一代成虫起源于西伯利亚东部,蒙古东部,以及中俄、中蒙边界地区。
    结论:我们的研究结果表明,中国北方的延胡索菌暴发与西伯利亚和蒙古通过远距离越境风传迁移的暴发密切相关。这些信息将有助于指导针对这种臭名昭著的害虫的国际监测和管理策略。©2024化学工业学会。
    BACKGROUND: The beet webworm, Loxostege sticticalis, a worldwide pest of many crops, performs a seasonal migration, causing periodic outbreaks in Asia, Europe and North America. Although long-distance migration is well documented in China, patterns of transboundary migration among China, Russia and Mongolia are largely unknown. We performed a phase analysis of L. sticticalis periodic outbreaks among three countries based on 30 years of historical population data, analyzed the wind systems during migration over boundary regions, and traced the migratory routes in a case study of outbreaks in 2008 by trajectory simulation.
    RESULTS: Highly synchronized outbreak years of L. sticticalis were observed between China and Mongolia, China and eastern Siberia, China and western Siberia, Mongolia and eastern Siberia, eastern Siberia and western Siberia from 1978 to 2008, indicating possible transboundary migration between these regions. Winds at 300-600 m altitude, where adult migration usually occurs, also showed a high probability of northwestern winds in Haila\'er (China), Chita (Russia) and Choybalsan (Mongolia), favoring successful adult migration from these areas to northern and northeastern China. Back trajectory analysis further showed that the first-generation adults that caused the severe outbreak of second-generation larvae in 2008 originated from eastern Siberia, eastern Mongolia, and the boundary regions of China-Russia and China-Mongolia.
    CONCLUSIONS: Our findings demonstrated that the source of L. sticticalis outbreaks in northern China was closely related to the outbreaks in Siberia and Mongolia via long-distance transboundary windborne migration. This information will help guide international monitoring and management strategies against this notorious pest. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.
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