■5岁以下儿童死亡率(U5MR)和孕产妇死亡率(MMR)是评价一个国家或地区围产期保健和儿童保健服务质量的重要指标,是促进母婴安全和母婴健康的研究重点。本文旨在分析和预测我国U5MR和MMR的发展趋势,探讨社会卫生服务和经济因素对U5MR和MMR的影响,并为有关部门制定相关政策措施提供依据。
■建立了JoinPoint回归模型,以进行时间趋势分析并描述新生儿死亡率(NMR)的趋势,婴儿死亡率(IMR),1991年至2020年中国U5MR和MMR。线性混合效应模型用于评估孕产妇保健服务和社会经济因素对U5MR和MMR的固定效应。将年份作为随机效应,以最大程度地减少共线性的影响。建立了自回归综合移动平均模型(ARIMA)来预测2021年至2025年的U5MR和MMR。
■NMR,IMR,U5MR和MMR从1991年到2020年在中国国家,城乡呈持续下降趋势。NMR,IMR,U5MR和MMR与国内生产总值(GDP)呈显著负相关,卫生总支出(THE)占GDP的比例,系统管理率,产前护理率,产后访视率和住院分娩率。2021-2025年全国U5MR预测值为7.3‰,7.2‰,7.1‰,7.1‰和7.2‰,全国MMR预测值分别为13.8/100000、12.1/100000、10.6/100000、9.6/100000和8.3/100000。
■中国在降低U5MR和MMR方面取得了巨大成就。推进基本公共卫生服务均等化,进一步优化政府卫生资源配置,是实现健康中国2030年目标的需要。中国降低U5MR和MMR的经验可为发展中国家实现可持续发展目标提供借鉴。
Under-five mortality rate (U5MR) and maternal mortality rate (MMR) are important indicators for evaluating the quality of perinatal health and child health services in a country or region, and are research priorities for promoting maternal and infant safety and maternal and child health. This paper aimed to analysis and predict the trends of U5MR and MMR in
China, to explore the impact of social health services and economic factors on U5MR and MMR, and to provide a basis for relevant departments to formulate relevant policies and measures.
The JoinPoint regression model was established to conduct time trend analysis and describe the trend of neonatal mortality rate (NMR), infant mortality rate (IMR), U5MR and MMR in
China from 1991 to 2020. The linear mixed effect model was used to assess the fixed effects of maternal health care services and socioeconomic factors on U5MR and MMR were explored, with year as a random effect to minimize the effect of collinearity. Auto regressive integrated moving average models (ARIMA) were built to predict U5MR and MMR from 2021 to 2025.
The NMR, IMR, U5MR and MMR from 1991 to 2020 in
China among national, urban and rural areas showed continuous downward trends. The NMR, IMR, U5MR and MMR were significantly negatively correlated with gross domestic product (GDP), the proportion of the total health expenditure (THE) to GDP, system management rate, prenatal care rate, post-natal visit rate and hospital delivery rate. The predicted values of national U5MR from 2021 to 2025 were 7.3 ‰, 7.2 ‰, 7.1 ‰, 7.1 ‰ and 7.2 ‰ and the predicted values of national MMR were 13.8/100000, 12.1/100000, 10.6/100000, 9.6/100000 and 8.3/100000.
China has made great achievements in reducing the U5MR and MMR. It is necessary for achieving the goals of Healthy
China 2030 by promoting the equalization of basic public health services and further optimizing the allocation of government health resources. China\'s experience in reducing U5MR and MMR can be used as a reference for developing countries to realize the SDGs.