背景:需要更多关于非酒精性脂肪性肝病(NAFLD)组织学进展对长期结局的长期影响的数据,包括终末期肝病(ESLD)和死亡率。
方法:我们纳入了活检证实的非肝硬化NAFLD和≥2个肝活检间隔6个月的瑞典成人(1969-2017;n=718)。NAFLD在初次活检时被归类为单纯脂肪变性,非纤维化脂肪性肝炎(NASH),或非肝硬化纤维化。NAFLD进展通过活检之间的组织学变化来定义(即NASH事件,意外纤维化,纤维化进展,肝硬化)。使用Cox回归,我们估计多变量调整的风险比(aHRs)和95CIs的事件ESLD(即住院失代偿期肝硬化,肝细胞癌或肝移植)和死亡率,根据NAFLD进展与稳定/消退的疾病。
结果:在初次活检时,497例患者(69.2%)有单纯性脂肪变性,90(12.5%)患有非纤维化NASH,和131(18.2%)有非肝硬化纤维化。活检之间的中位数超过3.4年,30.4%(218/718)经历了NAFLD进展,包括12.5%(62/497)的非纤维化NASH,24.0%(141/587)发生纤维化,和5.6%(40/718)肝硬化。与稳定/消退的疾病相比,NAFLD进展与发生ESLD的发生率显着升高相关(23.8vs.11.4/1000人年[PY];差异=12.4/1000PY;AHR=1.65,95CI=1.17-2.32)。而最高的ESLD发病率发生在肝硬化的进展中(差异与稳定/消退的疾病=56.3/1000PY),在较早的过渡中也发现了显著的超额风险,包括从简单的脂肪变性到意外纤维化(差异与稳定/消退的疾病=18.9/1000PY)。相比之下,当将NAFLD进展与稳定/消退的疾病进行比较时,全因死亡率似乎没有差异(差异=4.7/1000PY;aHR=0.99,95CI=0.78~1.24).
结论:在全国范围内,配对NAFLD活检患者的真实世界队列,组织学疾病进展导致发生ESLD的发生率显着升高,但似乎并不影响全因死亡率.
■目前,关于非酒精性脂肪性肝病(NAFLD)组织学进展或消退对后续不良临床结局风险的长期影响的数据很少,包括终末期肝病(ESLD)的发展和死亡率。这是特别重要的,因为目前NAFLD治疗的随机对照试验侧重于短期组织学终点,作为这些主要临床结果的假定替代。因此,这项研究的结果可以帮助为未来NAFLD治疗试验的最佳设计提供信息,同时也为重点预防NAFLD发展和进展的公共卫生政策提供了必要的证据基础。
More data are needed regarding the long-term impact of the histological progression of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) on long-term outcomes, including end-stage liver disease (ESLD) and mortality.
We included Swedish adults with biopsy-confirmed non-cirrhotic NAFLD and ≥2 liver biopsies >6 months apart (1969-2017; n = 718). NAFLD was categorized at initial biopsy as simple steatosis, non-fibrotic
steatohepatitis (NASH), or non-cirrhotic fibrosis. NAFLD progression was defined by histological changes between biopsies (i.e. incident NASH, incident fibrosis, fibrosis progression, cirrhosis). Using Cox regression, we estimated multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% CIs for incident ESLD (i.e. hospitalization for decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma or liver transplantation) and mortality, according to NAFLD progression vs. stable/regressed disease.
At initial biopsy, 497 patients (69.2%) had simple steatosis, 90 (12.5%) had non-fibrotic NASH, and 131 (18.2%) had non-cirrhotic fibrosis. Over a median of 3.4 years between biopsies, 30.4% (218/718) experienced NAFLD progression, including 12.5% (62/497) with incident non-fibrotic NASH, 24.0% (141/587) with incident fibrosis, and 5.6% (40/718) with cirrhosis. Compared to stable/regressed disease, NAFLD progression was associated with significantly higher rates of developing incident ESLD (23.8 vs. 11.4/1,000 person-years [PY]; difference = 12.4/1,000 PY; aHR 1.65, 95% CI 1.17-2.32). While the highest ESLD incidence occurred with progression to cirrhosis (difference vs. stable/regressed disease = 56.3/1,000 PY), significant excess risk was also found with earlier transitions, including from simple steatosis to incident fibrosis (difference vs. stable/regressed disease = 18.9/1,000 PY). In contrast, all-cause mortality rates did not appear to differ when NAFLD progression was compared to stable/regressed disease (difference = 4.7/1,000 PY; aHR 0.99, 95% CI 0.78-1.24).
In a nationwide, real-world cohort of patients with paired NAFLD biopsies, histological disease progression contributed to significantly higher rates of developing incident ESLD, but did not appear to impact all-cause mortality.
Currently, data are scarce regarding the long-term impact of histological progression or regression of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) on subsequent risk of adverse clinical outcomes, including the development of end-stage liver disease and mortality. This is particularly important because randomized-controlled trials of NAFLD therapeutics currently focus on short-term histological endpoints as presumed surrogates for those major clinical outcomes. Thus, the results from this
study can help inform the optimal design of future NAFLD therapeutic trials, while also providing the necessary evidence base for public health policies focused on preventing the development and progression of NAFLD.