disease outbreak

疾病爆发
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    尽管有有效的疫苗,麻疹仍然是全世界儿童的重大威胁。COVID-19大流行导致麻疹补充免疫活动推迟,从而加剧了局势。随着这种推迟,麻疹监测也恶化了,提交的标本数量是十多年来最低的。在这项研究中,我们将麻疹作为一个具有挑战性的案例研究,因为它的疫苗覆盖率很高,这导致了较小的疫情爆发,并可能在谷歌趋势上发出较弱的信号。我们的研究旨在探索使用Google趋势实时监控传染病暴发的可行性。我们使用Pearson相关系数和Spearman的等级相关系数评估了30个欧洲国家和日本的Google趋势搜索与临床病例数据之间的相关性。结果显示,谷歌趋势最适合在高收入国家的区域层面监测急性疾病暴发,即使每周只有几个案例。例如,从2017年到2019年,冲绳地级的皮尔逊相关系数为0.86(p值<0.05),Japan,与日本国家一级的0.33(p值<0.05)相比。此外,我们发现,Pearson相关系数可能比Spearman的等级相关系数更适合评估Google趋势搜索数据和临床病例数据之间的相关性.这项研究强调了利用Google趋势作为及时采取公共卫生干预措施以应对传染病暴发的宝贵工具的潜力。即使是在疫苗覆盖率高的疾病中。
    Measles remains a significant threat to children worldwide despite the availability of effective vaccines. The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated the situation by leading to the postponement of supplementary measles immunization activities. Along with this postponement, measles surveillance also deteriorated, with the lowest number of submitted specimens in over a decade. In this study, we focus on measles as a challenging case study due to its high vaccination coverage, which leads to smaller outbreaks and potentially weaker signals on Google Trends. Our research aimed to explore the feasibility of using Google Trends for real-time monitoring of infectious disease outbreaks. We evaluated the correlation between Google Trends searches and clinical case data using the Pearson correlation coefficient and Spearman\'s rank correlation coefficient across 30 European countries and Japan. The results revealed that Google Trends was most suitable for monitoring acute disease outbreaks at the regional level in high-income countries, even when there are only a few weekly cases. For example, from 2017 to 2019, the Pearson correlation coefficient was 0.86 (p-value< 0.05) at the prefecture level for Okinawa, Japan, versus 0.33 (p-value< 0.05) at the national level for Japan. Furthermore, we found that the Pearson correlation coefficient may be more suitable than Spearman\'s rank correlation coefficient for evaluating the correlations between Google Trends search data and clinical case data. This study highlighted the potential of utilizing Google Trends as a valuable tool for timely public health interventions to respond to infectious disease outbreaks, even in the context of diseases with high vaccine coverage.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:随着人们越来越关注将“一个健康”方法纳入人畜共患疾病监测和应对的重要性,需要更好地了解支持动物和人类卫生部门之间有效交流和信息共享的机制。本定性案例研究的目的是描述人类和动物健康利益相关者之间使用的沟通渠道,并确定能够整合“一个健康”方法的要素。
    方法:我们将文献研究与对15个利益相关者的访谈相结合,以绘制艾伯塔省人类和猪流感监测中使用的沟通渠道,加拿大,以及对2020年人类H1N1N2V病例的反应。还对访谈进行了主题分析,以确定动物和人类卫生部门利益相关者之间交流的障碍和促进因素。
    结果:当人感染猪流感病例出现时,省卫生首席医疗官领导的回应涉及各级政府以及人类和动物卫生部门的参与者。公共和动物卫生实验室以及养猪业的合作,除了通过现有的监控系统获得的信息之外,是迅速和有效的。确定为能够在人类和动物卫生系统之间进行顺畅沟通的要素包括各种利益相关者之间预先存在的关系,他们之间的信任关系(例如,猪业及其对政府结构的看法),利益相关者的存在作为卫生部和农业部之间的永久联络人,和利益相关者对“一个健康”方法重要性的理解。
    结论:信息通过正式和非正式渠道以及结构和关系特征流动,可以支持传染病监测和疫情应对中的快速有效沟通。
    BACKGROUND: With increased attention to the importance of integrating the One Health approach into zoonotic disease surveillance and response, a greater understanding of the mechanisms to support effective communication and information sharing across animal and human health sectors is needed. The objectives of this qualitative case study were to describe the communication channels used between human and animal health stakeholders and to identify the elements that have enabled the integration of the One Health approach.
    METHODS: We combined documentary research with interviews with fifteen stakeholders to map the communication channels used in human and swine influenza surveillance in Alberta, Canada, as well as in the response to a human case of H1N2v in 2020. A thematic analysis of the interviews was also used to identify the barriers and facilitators to communication among stakeholders from the animal and human health sectors.
    RESULTS: When a human case of swine influenza emerged, the response led by the provincial Chief Medical Officer of Health involved players at various levels of government and in the human and animal health sectors. The collaboration of public and animal health laboratories and of the swine sector, in addition to the information available through the surveillance systems in place, was swift and effective. Elements identified as enabling smooth communication between the human and animal health systems included preexisting relationships between the various stakeholders, a relationship of trust between them (e.g., the swine sector and their perception of government structures), the presence of stakeholders acting as permanent liaisons between the ministries of health and agriculture, and stakeholders\' understanding of the importance of the One Health approach.
    CONCLUSIONS: Information flows through formal and informal channels and both structural and relational features that can support rapid and effective communication in infectious disease surveillance and outbreak response.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:突发公共卫生事件需要在不同部门的多个利益相关者之间进行整合,以监测情况并采取适当的应对措施。作为一个拥有由数千个岛屿组成的大片土地的国家,印度尼西亚的集中式公共卫生紧急行动中心(PHEOC)系统目前无法有效遏制疾病。需要进行PHEOC系统改革以适应印度尼西亚的情况,特别是在区域层面。根据现有证据,我们概述了国家以下一级的PHEOC潜在模型。政策选择和建议:基于国际上PHEOC模型的现有证据,我们为区域一级的PHEOC制定了三种政策模式。这些模型(特设机构模型,独立机构模式,和省卫生局(PHO)为基础的模型)需要不同的指挥系统,每个人都有自己的好处。结论:我们建议印度尼西亚卫生部采用第三种PHEOC政策模式,指挥链位于PHO之下。这是最实用的方法,因为PHO有权动员单位和获取资源以应对迫在眉睫的公共卫生紧急情况。需要进一步的培训和能力建设,以支持PHO作为区域PHEOC的指挥官。
    Background: Public health emergencies require integration between multiple stakeholders in different sectors to monitor the situation and carry out an appropriate response. As a country with a large land area consisting of thousands of islands, Indonesia\'s centralized Public Health Emergency Operation Center (PHEOC) system is currently unable to effectively contain diseases. A PHEOC system reform is required to accommodate Indonesia\'s circumstances, particularly at the regional level. We have outlined potential models at the sub-national level for PHEOC based on existing evidence. Policy Options and Recommendations: Based on existing evidence of PHEOC models internationally, we have formulated three policy models for regional-level PHEOC. These models (the ad hoc agency model, the independent agency model, and the Province Health Office (PHO)-based model) entail different chains of command, and each has its own benefits. Conclusion: We recommend that the Ministry of Health in Indonesia adopt the third PHEOC policy model, in which the chain of command lies under the PHO. This is the most practical approach, as the PHO has the authority to mobilize units and access resources in response to imminent public health emergencies. Further training and capacity-building are required to support the PHO as the commander of the regional PHEOC.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    截至2022年5月,人类猴痘(MPOX)疾病的新爆发在多个国家。2022年人类MPOX疾病传播超过109例,将疑似病例排除至2022年底。截至同一日期,2022年人类MPOX的死亡人数超过200例。人类MPOX并不是一种新的疾病,这种疾病曾经在非洲大陆的一些国家流行。尽管如此,这种疾病于2022年开始在世界许多国家传播。5月,英国记录了首例2022年人类MPOX病例。在那个日期之后,这种疾病开始在其他一些国家流行,比如美国,西班牙,和巴西。2022年人类MPOX是一种由病毒引起的病毒性疾病,MPOX病毒,这种病毒会在病人的皮肤上引起皮疹和损伤,以及在病人的嘴里。多种有效指标用于2022年人类MPOX的研究,例如人类MPOX(HIhMPOX)的群体免疫,人类MPOX的基本繁殖数(BRNhMPOX),和人MPOX的感染期。本研究的重点是对牛群免疫的研究,和2022年全球多个国家爆发人类MPOX的基本繁殖数。本研究采用了敏感室S的半分析方法,感染隔间I,恢复室R(SIR)大流行模型,包括用于研究群体免疫的死亡率,和2022年人类MPOX病的基本繁殖数。发现2022年人类MPOX疾病的群体免疫平均值等于0.2194,即多个国家为21.94%,相当于美国的35.52%,西班牙为30.99%。此外,发现2022年人类MPOX疾病的基本繁殖数的平均值在多个国家等于1.2810。从这些值可以得出结论,必须以有效的方式对全部易感人群的21.94%进行免疫接种,以防止疾病的传播。此外,基于以前的值,结论是,2022年MPOX疾病的状况正在作为大流行传播。
    As of May 2022, a new outbreak of the human monkeypox (MPOX) disease appeared in multiple countries, where the 2022 human MPOX disease spread to more than 109 cases, excluding the suspected cases up to the end of 2022. The deaths of the 2022 human MPOX exceeded 200 cases up to the same date. The human MPOX is not a new disease, this disease was once endemic in some countries on the African continent. Despite this, this disease began to spread in a number of countries around the world in 2022. The first case of the 2022 human MPOX was recorded in the United Kingdom in May. After that date, this disease began to become a pandemic in a number of other countries, such as the United States, Spain, and Brazil. The 2022 human MPOX is a type of viral disease caused by a viral virus, the MPOX virus, and this virus causes rashes and lesions over the skin of the patient, as well as in the mouth of the patient. Multiple effective indicators are employed for the study of the 2022 of the human MPOX, such as the herd immunity of the human MPOX (HIhMPOX), the basic reproduction number of the human MPOX (BRNhMPOX), and the infection period of the human MPOX. This study focuses on the study of the herd immunity of, and the basic reproduction number of the 2022 outbreak of human MPOX in multiple countries around the world. This study employed the semianalytical method of the Susceptible compartment S, Infectious compartment I, Recovered compartment R (SIR) pandemic model including the mortality for the study of the herd immunity, and the basic reproduction number of the 2022 human MPOX disease. It is found that the average value of the herd immunity for the human MPOX disease in 2022 equals to 0.2194, that is, 21.94% for multiple countries, and equals to 35.52% for the United States, and 30.99% for Spain. Also, it is found that the average value of the basic reproduction number of the 2022 human MPOX disease equals to 1.2810 for multiple countries. It is concluded from these values that 21.94% of the total susceptible population has to be immunized in an effective way to prevent the spreading of the disease. Also, based on the previous values, it is concluded that the status of the 2022 MPOX disease is spreading as a pandemic.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    可能更容易感染猴痘病毒的是医护人员。大多数医护人员直接接触到这种疾病的感染者,可以直接或间接传播。医疗保健专业人员必须与患有疾病的患者以及任何受感染的物体或液体接触,以有效地管理疾病,这进一步增加了传播的风险。制定安全措施并保护医护人员至关重要。为了阻止猴痘病毒的传播,各国必须制定必要的保障措施和对策。在这种紧急情况下,必须加强医疗保健系统。所有医疗保健系统应为员工提供足够的个人防护设备(PPE),并促进高风险暴露者的风险评估。任何疑似猴痘病例都需要医疗保健专业人员的谨慎。他们必须遵守感染控制安全规则和保护措施。
    Potentially more at risk of contracting the monkeypox virus are healthcare workers. Most healthcare workers come into direct contact with the disease\'s infected people, which can spread directly and indirectly. Healthcare professionals must contact patients with the disease and any infected objects or fluids to effectively manage the disease, which further increases the risk of transmission. It is crucial to put safety measures in place and protect healthcare workers. To stop the spread of the monkeypox virus, countries must develop the necessary safeguards and countermeasures. In this emergency, healthcare systems must be strengthened. All healthcare systems should offer staff sufficient personal protective equipment (PPE) and facilitate risk assessment among those with a high risk of exposure. Any suspected case of monkeypox requires caution on the part of healthcare professionals. They must abide by infection control safety rules and protective measures.
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  • 文章类型: Case Reports
    2020年2月2日,一所视障学校的负责人通知学生出现类似的眼部症状。我们调查了集群以确认诊断,识别潜在的暴露,并提出建议。
    我们将案例定义为学生和教职员工中任何眼睛的发红/浇水/放电,2020年1月-2月。我们积极搜索案例并计算攻击率。我们根据症状出现的日期绘制了内表膜。我们对学生和教职员工进行了回顾性队列研究。我们收集了潜在风险暴露的数据,并计算了风险比(RR),95%置信区间(95CI),和人口归因风险(PAR)。我们发送了三例病例的结膜拭子进行微生物分析。
    我们将这些病例诊断为急性结膜炎,并在51人中确定了39例(76%)病例。所有39例患者报告有水分和红肿;28例(72%)和12例(31%)报告有眼痛和放电,分别。病例的中位年龄为11岁(范围:6-48岁)。男性[77%(20/26)]和女性[76%(19/25)]的发病率没有显著差异,p=0.9]。学生的攻击率较高[86%,(38/44)]比员工[14%,(1/7)p=<0.01]。与病例接触[RR=2.5,95CI=1.3-4.8,PAR=51%]和留在校园内[RR=6.0,95CI=1.0-37.3,PAR=81%]与急性结膜炎爆发相关。所有三个结膜拭子均为细菌生长阴性。
    与病例密切接触并留在校园内导致视障学校的学生和教职员工爆发急性结膜炎。
    On February 2, 2020, the head of a visually impaired school notified similar eye symptoms among the students. We investigated the cluster to confirm the diagnosis, identify potential exposures, and propose recommendations.
    We defined a case as redness/watering/discharge from any eye among the students and staff, January-February 2020. We actively searched for the cases and calculated attack rates. We drew epicurve by date of symptoms onset. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of students and staff. We collected data on potential exposures and calculated Risk Ratio (RR), 95% Confidence Interval (95%CI), and Population Attributable Risk (PAR). We sent a conjunctival swab of the three cases for microbiological analysis.
    We diagnosed the cases as acute conjunctivitis and identified 39 (76%) cases among 51 individuals. All the 39 cases reported watering and redness; 28 (72%) and 12 (31%) reported eye pain and discharge, respectively. The median age of the case was 11 years (range: 6-48 years). The attack rate didn\'t differ significantly between males [77% (20/26)] and females [76% (19/25), p = 0.9]. The attack rate was higher among the students [86%, (38/44)] than staffs [14%, (1/7), p = <0.01]. Contact with a case [RR = 2.5, 95%CI = 1.3-4.8, PAR = 51%] and staying inside campus [RR = 6.0, 95%CI = 1.0-37.3, PAR = 81%] were associated with the acute conjunctivitis outbreak. All the three conjunctival swabs were negative for bacterial growth.
    Close contact with the case and staying inside the campus led to the outbreak of acute conjunctivitis among the students and staff of the visually impaired school.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    动物疾病暴发的间接成本通常大大超过直接成本。尽管它们很重要,由于间接成本的复杂性,间接成本的特征仍然很差。在这项研究中,我们开发了一个框架来评估瑞士假想的非洲猪瘟疫情的间接成本.我们通过国际和国家利益相关者访谈收集数据,分析国家疾病控制法规和行业数据。我们开发了一个框架来捕获由此产生的定性和定量数据,对这些法规的影响进行分类,并按重要性对影响进行排序。然后,我们开发了一个电子表格模型,以计算一组利益相关者的一类控制措施的间接成本。我们开发了一个决策树模型,以指导给定控制措施类别的最经济有利的实施计划,在不同的疫情情景下。我们的结果表明,最重要的措施/影响类别是“运输物流”,“消费者需求”,“防止野猪和家猪接触”和“屠宰物流”。在我们假设的场景中,与“防止野猪和家猪接触”相关的最大成本是由于假定育肥猪场的部分或全部种群减少,以减少畜群规模以符合模拟控制法规。该模型还提供了有关最经济有利的策略的建议,以减少控制区野猪与家猪之间的接触。我们的方法提供了一个新的框架来整合定性和定量数据以指导疾病控制策略。这种方法可能对其他国家和其他疾病有用,包括在数据和资源匮乏的环境中,或动物疾病爆发经验有限的地区。
    Indirect costs of animal disease outbreaks often significantly exceed the direct costs. Despite their importance, indirect costs remain poorly characterized due to their complexity. In this study, we developed a framework to assess the indirect costs of a hypothetical African swine fever outbreak in Switzerland. We collected data through international and national stakeholder interviews, analysis of national disease control regulations and industry data. We developed a framework to capture the resulting qualitative and quantitative data, categorize the impacts of these regulations, and rank the impacts in order of importance. We then developed a spreadsheet model to calculate the indirect costs of one category of control measure for an individual group of stakeholders. We developed a decision tree model to guide the most economically favourable implementation plan for a given control measure category, under different outbreak scenarios. Our results suggest that the most important measure/impact categories were \'Transport logistics\', \'Consumer demand\', \'Prevention of wild boar and domestic pig contact\' and \'Slaughter logistics\'. In our hypothetical scenario, the greatest costs associated with \'Prevention of wild boar and domestic pig contact\' were due to assumed partial or total depopulation of fattening pig farms in order to reduce herd size to comply with the simulated control regulations. The model also provides suggestions on the most economically favourable strategy to reduce contact between wild boar and domestic pigs in control areas. Our approach provides a new framework to integrate qualitative and quantitative data to guide disease control strategy. This method could be useful in other countries and for other diseases, including in data- and resource-poor settings, or areas with limited experience of animal disease outbreaks.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    BACKGROUND: A hot topic on the relationship between a popular avian-origin food and avian influenza occurred on social media during the outbreak of the emerging avian influenza A (H7N9). The misinformation generated from this topic had caused great confusion and public concern.
    OBJECTIVE: Our goals were to analyze the trend and contents of the relevant posts during the outbreak. We also aimed to understand the characteristics of the misinformation and to provide suggestions to reduce public misconception on social media during the emerging disease outbreak.
    METHODS: The original microblog posts were collected from China\'s Sina Weibo and Tencent Weibo using a combination of keywords between April 1, 2013 and June 2, 2013. We analyzed the weekly and daily trend of the relevant posts. Content analyses were applied to categorize the posts into 4 types with unified sorting criteria. The posts\' characteristics and geographic locations were also analyzed in each category. We conducted further analysis on the top 5 most popular misleading posts.
    RESULTS: A total of 1680 original microblog posts on the topic were retrieved and 341 (20.30%) of these posts were categorized as misleading messages. The number of relevant posts had not increased much during the first 2 weeks but rose to a high level in the next 2 weeks after the sudden increase in number of reported cases at the beginning of week 3. The posts under \"misleading messages\" occurred and increased from the beginning of week 3, but their daily posting number decreased when the daily number of posts under \"refuting messages\" outnumbered them. The microbloggers of the misleading posts had the lowest mean rank of followers and previous posts, but their posts had a highest mean rank of posts. The proportion of \"misleading messages\" in places with no reported cases was significantly higher than that in the epidemic areas (23.6% vs 13.8%). The popular misleading posts appeared to be short and consisted of personal narratives, which were easily disseminated on social media.
    CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggested the importance of responding to common questions and misconceptions on social media platforms from the beginning of disease outbreaks. Authorities need to release clear and reliable information related to the popular topics early on. The microbloggers posting correct information should be empowered and their posts could be promoted to clarify false information. Equal importance should be attached to clarify misinformation in both the outbreak and nonoutbreak areas.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    OBJECTIVE: This research aims to describe the effect of standard care (control) versus a clinical management pathway (intervention) on patient length of stay and admission rates during a public health emergency at one Australian ED.
    METHODS: A retrospective audit of hospital records for patients who presented in May 2013 with gastroenteritis-like symptoms was undertaken following a surge in patient presentations from a Salmonella outbreak. Patients who presented with gastroenteritis-like symptoms between 15 and 19 May 2013 received care according to a clinical management pathway (intervention). The focus of the intervention was based on symptom management, including a standardised approach to analgesia, anti-emetics and rehydration. Patient characteristics, such as age and gender are described using descriptive statistics. A Mann-Whitney test was used to compare continuous data, and a Fisher\'s exact test was used to compare categorical data, between the two groups.
    RESULTS: Over an 8 day period, 110 patients presented with gastroenteritis-like symptoms. The median length of stay was statistically different between the two groups (P < 0.001). More patients were admitted to hospital from the control group (n = 5) when compared with the intervention group (n = 0); however, given the small number of patients in these groups, inferential statistical analysis was not a reasonable consideration.
    CONCLUSIONS: The length of stay for patients between the two groups was statistically different, suggesting that the implementation of a clinical management pathway for patients with gastroenteritis-like symptoms reduced the ED length of stay. This finding is useful in future planning for similar public health emergency responses and/or for use when patients present with gastroenteritis-like symptoms on a daily basis.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    BACKGROUND: The standard of outbreak reports must be improved to a level where they are robust enough to properly influence preventive strategies. We aimed to verify compliance with mandatory outbreak notification, describing epidemiologic characteristics and management, and evaluating the quality of outbreak reports on health care-associated infections in São Paulo State, Brazil.
    METHODS: A systematic search was carried out on PubMed, the Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature database, Embase, Outbreak Database, the Annals of Brazilian Conferences on Healthcare-Associated Infection Prevention and Infectious Diseases, and reports from the São Paulo State Hospital Infection Division. The quality of reports was evaluated according to the Outbreak Reports and Intervention studies of Nosocomial Infection (ORION) statement guidelines.
    RESULTS: A total of 87 outbreak reports were identified; however, only 15 outbreaks (17.2%) were reported to the São Paulo State Hospital Infection Division. Bloodstream infection and neonatal intensive care units were mostly implicated (23% and 19.5%, respectively). Quality, evaluated according to ORION statement recommendations, was generally poor. The ORION categories of Background, Objectives, Participants, Setting, Infection-Related Outcomes, and Generality were properly described in 32.2%, 74.7%, 2.3%, 46%, 2.3%, and 12.6% of reports, respectively. Interventions and Culture-Typing were described with details in 51.9% and 55.2% of outbreak reports, respectively.
    CONCLUSIONS: Our findings pointed out the need for strategies to improve competence in outbreak reports, and the ORION statement guidelines may help in this matter. Efforts to promote confidence and consequent compliance with mandatory notification of outbreak reports are essential.
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