complex Systems

复杂系统
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    抗菌药物是人类和动物健康医学治疗的重要组成部分。与使用它们相关的耐药性已构成全球公共卫生威胁。在世界卫生组织和相关伙伴的指导下,在全球一级做出了多项努力,以制定旨在打击抗微生物药物耐药性的政策。
    虽然抗菌素耐药性全球行动计划和以人为本的框架旨在指导各国实施成功的抗菌素耐药性政策,它们的采用和成功取决于不同的实施环境。因此,本文强调了在撒哈拉以南非洲实施世界卫生组织以人为本方法的挑战和机遇,同时认识到抗菌素耐药性是一个根植于复杂系统的多方面问题。\'
    以人为本的方法为对抗抗菌素耐药性提供了坚实的框架。各国应制定可持续的国家行动计划,采用一个健康的方法,限制非处方抗生素消费,并教育社区合理使用抗生素。它们还应促进国家间合作和创新解决方案,加强药品监管能力,投资于感染控制,水卫生,卫生,诊断,和监视工具,并促进疫苗接种以预防耐药感染。
    UNASSIGNED: Antimicrobial drugs form an essential component of medical treatment in human and animal health. Resistance associated with their use has posed a global public health threat. Multiple efforts have been made at the global level directed by the World Health Organization and associated partners to develop policies aimed at combatting antimicrobial resistance.
    UNASSIGNED: Whilst the Global Action Plan on antimicrobial resistance and people-centered framework aim to guide countries in implementing successful antimicrobial resistance policies, their adoption and success depend on different implementation contexts. Therefore, this paper highlights the challenges and opportunities for implementing the World Health Organization\'s people-centered approach in sub-Saharan Africa, whilst recognizing antimicrobial resistance as a multifaceted problem rooted in \'complex systems.\'
    UNASSIGNED: The people-centered approach provides a solid framework for combating antimicrobial resistance. Countries should build sustainable national action plans, adopt the One Health approach, limit over-the-counter antibiotic consumption, and educate communities on rational antibiotic use. They should also promote inter-country collaborations and innovative solutions, strengthen drug regulatory capacities, invest in infection control, water sanitation, hygiene, diagnostics, and surveillance tools, and promote vaccine uptake to prevent drug-resistant infections.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    新冠肺炎疫情加剧了拉丁美洲先前存在的问题,并给拉丁美洲的大学(LAU)带来了前所未有的挑战。这些挑战可以描述为复杂的问题,无法通过简化方法来理解。本文旨在(i)为LAU面临的挑战提供复杂的系统视角,以及(ii)为LAU的管理者在实践中解决这些问题提出指导方针。组成了一个多学科小组,进行了一个迭代的研究过程,头脑风暴和辩论的潜在解决方案,以解决他们的大学认为特别重要的以下问题:大学环境中的心理健康问题,学生学习差距,人才外流,和反科学运动。复杂性理论和E/HF概念被整合在一起,以证明理解LAU以支离破碎的方式正在经历什么是不可能的,挑战之间的互动应该是管理者行动计划的中心。从业者总结:LAU的管理人员可以从建议的指导方针中受益,以了解大学面临的紧迫挑战,并制定系统的方法来解决这些问题。
    The Covid-19 pandemic exacerbated pre-existing problems in Latin America and posed unprecedented challenges for Latin American universities (LAU). These challenges can be characterised as complex problems that cannot be understood through reductionist approaches. This paper aims (i) to provide a complex system perspective of the challenges confronting LAUs and (ii) to propose guidelines for managers of LAUs to address them in practice. A multidisciplinary group was formed and conducted an iterative process of research, brainstorming and debate of potential solutions to the following problems considered particularly important by their universities: mental health issues in the university environment, student learning gaps, brain drain, and anti-science movements. Complexity theory and E/HF concepts are integrated to demonstrate that understanding what LAUs are experiencing in a fragmented manner is impossible, and that the interactions between the challenges should be at the centre of the managers\' actions plans. Practitioner summary: Managers of LAUs can benefit from the guidelines proposed to understand the pressing challenges confronting universities and develop systemic approaches to address them.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    总的来说,收集足够的经验数据来捕获定义复杂系统的整个过程是不可行的,本质上或从不同的地理或时间角度查看系统时。在这种情况下,另一种方法是考虑模型的可转移性,这是将为一个环境构建的模型转换为另一个不太为人所知的情况的行为。模型的可转移性和适应性可能是非常有益的-有助于模型的重用和适应性的方法,特别是对于数据有限的网站,将受益于广泛的模型吸收。除了开发模型所需的工作量减少之外,将模型转移到不同的应用程序上下文时,可以简化数据收集。本文提出的研究重点是一个案例研究,以确定和实施模型适应的指南。我们的研究将海草生态系统的一般动态贝叶斯网络(DBN)调整到节点相似的新位置,但是条件概率表有所不同。我们专注于位于Arcachon湾的两种海草(Zosteranoltei和Zosteramarina),法国。专家知识用于补充同行评审的文献,以确定哪些组件需要调整,包括模型和预期结果的参数化和量化。我们采用了语言标签和基于场景的启发,以从专家那里引出用于量化DBN的条件概率。根据拟议的准则,保留了一般DBN的模型结构,但是条件概率表适用于表征Zosteraspp中生长动态的节点。人口位于Arcachon湾,以及它们繁殖的季节性变化。特别注意光变量,因为它是海草生长和生理的关键驱动因素。我们的指南提供了一种使通用DBN适应特定生态系统的方法,以最大程度地提高模型重用性并最大程度地减少重新开发工作。从可转移性的角度来看,特别重要的是数据有限的生态系统指南,以及如何在这些情况下使用模拟和先前的预测方法。
    In general, it is not feasible to collect enough empirical data to capture the entire range of processes that define a complex system, either intrinsically or when viewing the system from a different geographical or temporal perspective. In this context, an alternative approach is to consider model transferability, which is the act of translating a model built for one environment to another less well-known situation. Model transferability and adaptability may be extremely beneficial-approaches that aid in the reuse and adaption of models, particularly for sites with limited data, would benefit from widespread model uptake. Besides the reduced effort required to develop a model, data collection can be simplified when transferring a model to a different application context. The research presented in this paper focused on a case study to identify and implement guidelines for model adaptation. Our study adapted a general Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBN) of a seagrass ecosystem to a new location where nodes were similar, but the conditional probability tables varied. We focused on two species of seagrass (Zostera noltei and Zostera marina) located in Arcachon Bay, France. Expert knowledge was used to complement peer-reviewed literature to identify which components needed adjustment including parameterization and quantification of the model and desired outcomes. We adopted both linguistic labels and scenario-based elicitation to elicit from experts the conditional probabilities used to quantify the DBN. Following the proposed guidelines, the model structure of the general DBN was retained, but the conditional probability tables were adapted for nodes that characterized the growth dynamics in Zostera spp. population located in Arcachon Bay, as well as the seasonal variation on their reproduction. Particular attention was paid to the light variable as it is a crucial driver of growth and physiology for seagrasses. Our guidelines provide a way to adapt a general DBN to specific ecosystems to maximize model reuse and minimize re-development effort. Especially important from a transferability perspective are guidelines for ecosystems with limited data, and how simulation and prior predictive approaches can be used in these contexts.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    不管健康问题,卫生部门,患者状况,或治疗方式,条款很有可能得到“准则”的支持,该准则提出了专业认可的最佳实践建议。在这种背景下,寻求评估如何有效遵循此类指导的研究激增。这些调查描绘了一幅令人沮丧的画面,并有许多指导方针提示嘴唇服务,注意力不集中,甚至是反对派。这种困境促使人们进一步研究如何改进指南的吸收,本文考虑了如何从这些询问中吸取教训。
    这种巨大的材料对研究合成提出了相当大的挑战,这篇论文产生了一个关键的,两种试图满足这一任务的综述的方法学比较。首先,它概述了当前的正统观念,即,“主题评论,“汇总并列举了指南实施的障碍和促进者”。然后概述了一个“现实主义综合”,专注于测试从业者为提高指南吸收而设计的“程序理论”。
    主题审查旨在提供一个明确的,促进者的综合目录和指南实施的障碍。因此,他们提出了对潜在问题的重述,而不是改进策略。现实主义者的方法假定,随着不同的利益相关者争夺责任,将任何准则纳入当前实践将产生意想不到的系统压力。这些扭曲将促使对准则进行补充修订,这反过来又会产生更多的菌株。现实主义评论遵循这种对组织变革的动态理解。
    卫生保健决策者在充斥着指导方针的系统中运作。但是准则只有纸质权威。经理们不需要他们的利弊清单,因为准则的命运取决于他们的接受而不是他们的生产。他们确实需要有关如何设计和重新设计指南的决策支持,以便与不断发展的医疗保健提供系统相吻合。
    Regardless of health issue, health sector, patient condition, or treatment modality, the chances are that provision is supported by \"a guideline\" making professionally endorsed recommendations on best practice. Against this background, research has proliferated seeking to evaluate how effectively such guidance is followed. These investigations paint a gloomy picture with many a guideline prompting lip service, inattention, and even opposition. This predicament has prompted a further literature on how to improve the uptake of guidelines, and this paper considers how to draw together lessons from these inquiries.
    This huge body of material presents a considerable challenge for research synthesis, and this paper produces a critical, methodological comparison of 2 types of review attempting to meet that task. Firstly, it provides an overview of the current orthodoxy, namely, \"thematic reviews,\" which aggregate and enumerate the \"barriers and facilitators\" to guideline implementation. It then outlines a \"realist synthesis,\" focussing on testing the \"programme theories\" that practitioners have devised to improve guideline uptake.
    Thematic reviews aim to provide a definitive, comprehensive catalogue of the facilitators and barriers to guideline implementation. As such, they present a restatement of the underlying problems rather than an improvement strategy. The realist approach assumes that the incorporation of any guideline into current practice will produce unintended system strains as different stakeholders wrestle over responsibilities. These distortions will prompt supplementary revisions to guidelines, which in turn beget further strains. Realist reviews follow this dynamic understanding of organisational change.
    Health care decision makers operate in systems that are awash with guidelines. But guidelines only have paper authority. Managers do not need a checklist of their pros and cons, because the fate of guidelines depends on their reception rather than their production. They do need decision support on how to engineer and reengineer guidelines so they dovetail with evolving systems of health care delivery.
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