空气污染是心血管疾病(CVD)的主要危险因素。迄今为止,有限的研究使用高分辨率暴露评估来估计环境空气污染对CVD死亡率的影响,这可能无法捕捉到曝光的空间变化,并在结果中引入偏差。此外,三年行动计划(TYAP,2018-2020)发布;因此,空气污染物的构成和健康影响可能已经改变。在这项研究中,我们以0.05°×0.05°分辨率估计了暴露于参数小于2.5µm的颗粒物(PM2.5)和臭氧(O3)对CVD死亡率的短期影响,并测量了TYAP在这些关联中的影响.我们使用具有空间权重矩阵的随机森林模型来获得高分辨率污染物浓度,并使用条件泊松回归来评估空气污染与心血管死亡率之间的关系。随着2018-2021年四川盆地(SCB)PM2.5和O3的增加10µg/m3,CVD死亡率增加1.0134(95%CI1.0102,1.0166)和1.0083(95%CI1.0060,1.0107),分别,使用高分辨率的空气污染物浓度,使用来自空气质量监测站(AQM)的数据,与1.0070(95%CI1.0052,1.0087)和1.0057(95%CI1.0037,1.0078)进行比较。TYAP之后,PM2.5导致的相对风险(RR)上升至1.0149(95%CI1.0054,1.0243),四川省O3导致的RR上升至1.0089(95%CI1.0030,1.0148)。我们发现四川省的心血管死亡率和空气污染呈显著正相关。使用高分辨率曝光将更准确地估计空气污染对CVD的影响。TYAP之后,SCB中老年人因PM2.5导致的心血管死亡风险估计降低,四川省O3引起的风险增加。
Air pollution is a major risk factor of cardiovascular disease (CVD). To date, limited studies have estimated the effects of ambient air pollution on CVD mortality using high-resolution exposure assessment, which might fail to capture the spatial variation in exposure and introduce bias in results. Besides, the three-year action plan (TYAP, 2018-2020) was released; thus, the constitution and health effect of air pollutants may have changed. In this study, we estimated the short-term effect exposed to particulate matters with parameter less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) with 0.05° × 0.05° resolution on CVD mortality and measured the influence of TYAP in the associations. We used random forest models with spatial weight matrices to attain high-resolution pollutant concentrations and conditional Poisson regression to assess the relationship between air pollution and cardiovascular mortality. With an increase of 10 µg/m3 in PM2.5 and O3 during 2018-2021 in the Sichuan Basin (SCB), CVD mortality increased 1.0134 (95% CI 1.0102, 1.0166) and 1.0083 (95% CI 1.0060, 1.0107), respectively, using high-resolution air pollutant concentration, comparing to 1.0070 (95% CI 1.0052, 1.0087) and 1.0057 (95% CI 1.0037, 1.0078) using data from air quality monitoring stations (AQMs). After TYAP, the relative risk (RR) due to PM2.5 rose up to 1.0149 (95% CI 1.0054, 1.0243), and the RR due to O3 rose up to 1.0089 (95% CI 1.0030, 1.0148) in Sichuan Province. We found significantly positive association of cardiovascular mortality and air pollution in Sichuan Province. And using high-resolution exposure would be more accurate to estimate the effect of air pollution on CVD. After TYAP, the cardiovascular mortality risk estimation due to PM2.5 decreased in elderly in SCB, and the risk due to O3 increased in Sichuan Province.