Spatial Regression

空间回归
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:对埃塞俄比亚的开放式排便进行了广泛的研究,但是在全面理解家庭水平的空间变化和预测因素方面仍然存在明显的差距。本研究利用2021年埃塞俄比亚行动绩效监测(PMA-ET)的数据,通过确定开放性排便的热点和预测因素来解决这一差距。采用地理加权回归分析,它超越了传统模型来解释空间异质性,对开放性排便患病率及其决定因素的地理差异提供了细致入微的理解。这项研究指出了热点领域和重要的预测因素,帮助政策制定者和从业者有效地调整干预措施。它不仅填补了埃塞俄比亚的知识空白,而且还为全球卫生倡议提供了信息。
    方法:该研究包括24,747名家庭参与者的总加权样本。ArcGIS版本10.7和SaTScan版本9.6用于处理制图,热点,普通最小二乘,伯努利模型分析,和空间回归。基于伯努利的模型用于分析埃塞俄比亚家庭水平的露天排便的纯空间聚类检测。采用普通最小二乘(OLS)分析和地理加权回归分析来评估开放性排便与解释变量之间的关联。
    结果:在家庭水平上,露天排便的空间分布表现出聚集性(全球MoranI指数值为4.540385,p值小于0.001),在阿姆哈拉发现了重要的热点,Afar,Harari,以及DireDawa的部分地区.使用Kuldorff扫描的空间分析确定了六个簇,在阿姆哈拉,有四个显示出统计学意义(P值<0.05),Afar,Harari,提格雷,埃塞俄比亚西南部。在地理加权回归模型中,作为男性[系数=0.87,P值<0.05]并且没有媒体接触(不看电视或听广播)[系数=0.47,P值<0.05]成为家庭水平的有统计学意义的预测因素在埃塞俄比亚排便。
    结论:该研究表明,埃塞俄比亚家庭的露天排便情况因地区而异,在阿姆哈拉发现了重要的热点,Afar,Harari,以及DireDawa的部分地区.地理加权回归分析强调了缺乏媒体暴露的男性参与者是开放性排便的重要预测因素。埃塞俄比亚有针对性的干预措施应改善热点地区男性的媒体曝光率,量身定制的卫生计划,和针对特定地区的宣传运动。与当地社区的合作至关重要。
    BACKGROUND: There has been extensive research conducted on open defecation in Ethiopia, but a notable gap persists in comprehensively understanding the spatial variation and predictors at the household level. This study utilizes data from the 2021 Performance Monitoring for Action Ethiopia (PMA-ET) to address this gap by identifying hotspots and predictors of open defecation. Employing geographically weighted regression analysis, it goes beyond traditional models to account for spatial heterogeneity, offering a nuanced understanding of geographical variations in open defecation prevalence and its determinants. This research pinpoints hotspot areas and significant predictors, aiding policymakers and practitioners in tailoring interventions effectively. It not only fills the knowledge gap in Ethiopia but also informs global sanitation initiatives.
    METHODS: The study comprised a total weighted sample of 24,747 household participants. ArcGIS version 10.7 and SaT Scan version 9.6 were used to handle mapping, hotspots, ordinary least squares, Bernoulli model analysis, and Spatial regression. Bernoulli-based model was used to analyze the purely spatial cluster detection of open defecation at the household level in Ethiopia. Ordinary Least Square (OLS) analysis and geographically weighted regression analysis were employed to assess the association between an open defecation and explanatory variables.
    RESULTS: The spatial distribution of open defecation at the household level exhibited clustering (global Moran\'s I index value of 4.540385, coupled with a p-value of less than 0.001), with significant hotspots identified in Amhara, Afar, Harari, and parts of Dire Dawa. Spatial analysis using Kuldorff\'s Scan identified six clusters, with four showing statistical significance (P-value < 0.05) in Amhara, Afar, Harari, Tigray, and southwest Ethiopia. In the geographically weighted regression model, being male [coefficient = 0.87, P-value < 0.05] and having no media exposure (not watching TV or listening to the radio) [coefficient = 0.47, P-value < 0.05] emerged as statistically significant predictors of household-level open defecation in Ethiopia.
    CONCLUSIONS: The study revealed that open defecation at the household level in Ethiopia varies across the regions, with significant hotspots identified in Amhara, Afar, Harari, and parts of Dire Dawa. Geographically weighted regression analysis highlights male participants lacking media exposure as substantial predictors of open defecation. Targeted interventions in Ethiopia should improve media exposure among males in hotspot regions, tailored sanitation programs, and region-specific awareness campaigns. Collaboration with local communities is crucial.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:早期诊断,控制血糖水平和心血管危险因素,定期筛查对于预防或延缓糖尿病并发症至关重要。然而,大多数患有糖尿病的成年人没有达到建议的目标,一些人群的潜在可预防的糖尿病相关住院率不成比例地高.了解导致地域差异的因素可以指导资源分配,并有助于确保未来的干预措施旨在满足这些社区的特定需求。因此,这项研究的目的是(1)在佛罗里达州的邮政编码制表区(ZCTA)水平上确定与糖尿病相关的住院率的决定因素,(2)评估这些关系的强度是否因地理位置和不同的空间尺度而变化。
    方法:使用2016年至2019年的数据,在ZCTA水平计算糖尿病相关住院(DRH)率。拟合了一个全球普通最小二乘回归模型来识别社会经济,人口统计学,医疗保健相关,以及与对数转换DRH率相关的构建环境特征。然后拟合多尺度地理加权回归(MGWR)模型以研究和描述回归系数的空间异质性。
    结果:糖尿病相关住院率较高的ZCTAs人群中,老年人(p<0.0001)和非西班牙裔黑人居民(p=0.003)的比例较高。此外,DRH率与较高的失业率相关(p=0.001),不保险(p<0.0001),以及无法进入车辆(p=0.002)。人口密度和家庭收入中位数与DRH率呈显著负相关(p<0.0001)。非平稳变量在局部表现出空间异质性(非西班牙裔黑人的百分比,教育程度),区域(年龄构成,失业,健康保险范围),和全州范围(人口密度,收入,车辆通道)。
    结论:这项研究的结果强调了社会经济资源和农村在塑造人口健康方面的重要性。了解观察到的关系的空间上下文提供了有价值的见解,以指导基于需求的,以本地为重点的健康计划,以减少潜在可避免的住院负担的差异。
    BACKGROUND: Early diagnosis, control of blood glucose levels and cardiovascular risk factors, and regular screening are essential to prevent or delay complications of diabetes. However, most adults with diabetes do not meet recommended targets, and some populations have disproportionately high rates of potentially preventable diabetes-related hospitalizations. Understanding the factors that contribute to geographic disparities can guide resource allocation and help ensure that future interventions are designed to meet the specific needs of these communities. Therefore, the objectives of this study were (1) to identify determinants of diabetes-related hospitalization rates at the ZIP code tabulation area (ZCTA) level in Florida, and (2) assess if the strengths of these relationships vary by geographic location and at different spatial scales.
    METHODS: Diabetes-related hospitalization (DRH) rates were computed at the ZCTA level using data from 2016 to 2019. A global ordinary least squares regression model was fit to identify socioeconomic, demographic, healthcare-related, and built environment characteristics associated with log-transformed DRH rates. A multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model was then fit to investigate and describe spatial heterogeneity of regression coefficients.
    RESULTS: Populations of ZCTAs with high rates of diabetes-related hospitalizations tended to have higher proportions of older adults (p < 0.0001) and non-Hispanic Black residents (p = 0.003). In addition, DRH rates were associated with higher levels of unemployment (p = 0.001), uninsurance (p < 0.0001), and lack of access to a vehicle (p = 0.002). Population density and median household income had significant (p < 0.0001) negative associations with DRH rates. Non-stationary variables exhibited spatial heterogeneity at local (percent non-Hispanic Black, educational attainment), regional (age composition, unemployment, health insurance coverage), and statewide scales (population density, income, vehicle access).
    CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this study underscore the importance of socioeconomic resources and rurality in shaping population health. Understanding the spatial context of the observed relationships provides valuable insights to guide needs-based, locally-focused health planning to reduce disparities in the burden of potentially avoidable hospitalizations.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    探索景观格局在生态系统服务(ES)之间的权衡/协同作用中的作用有助于理解ES的产生和传输过程,对多种ES管理具有重要意义。然而,很少有研究解决景观格局对ESs之间权衡/协同作用的影响的潜在时空异质性。这项研究评估了景观格局和五个典型的ESs(保水(WR),食品供应(FS),栖息地质量(HQ),土壤保留(SR),和景观美学(LA))在陕北黄土高原上,并使用修订后的权衡/协同度指标来衡量ESs之间的权衡/协同。构建了多尺度地理加权回归(MGWR)模型,以确定景观格局对权衡/协同作用影响的时空异质性。结果表明:(1)2000~2010年,耕地的增加和林地和草地的减少增加了景观多样性,降低了景观异质性和破碎性。2010-2020年,变化幅度有所下降,空间分布均匀,西北地区景观多样性和破碎性显著增加。(2)2000年至2020年,五大ESs的供应量持续增长。在2000-2010年期间,FS-SR,FS-LA和SR-LA以协同作用为主。从2010年到2020年,权衡单位在所有关系中的比例增加,和总部-FS,HQ-SR和HQ-LA以权衡为主导。(3)景观格局对权衡/协同作用有复杂的影响,而同一景观变量可能对不同时期和领域的特定权衡/协同作用产生相反的影响。这项研究的结果将为管理者制定区域可持续生态系统管理战略和倡导更多研究从时空角度解决生态问题提供信息。
    Exploring the role of landscape patterns in the trade-offs/synergies among ecosystem services (ESs) is helpful for understanding ES generation and transmission processes and is of great significance for multiple ES management. However, few studies have addressed the potential spatial-temporal heterogeneity in the influence of landscape patterns on trade-offs/synergies among ESs. This study assessed the landscape patterns and five typical ESs (water retention (WR), food supply (FS), habitat quality (HQ), soil retention (SR), and landscape aesthetics (LA)) on the Loess Plateau of northern Shaanxi and used the revised trade-off/synergy degree indicator to measure trade-offs/synergies among ESs. The multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model was constructed to determine the spatial-temporal heterogeneity in the influence of landscape patterns on the trade-offs/synergies. The results showed that (1) from 2000 to 2010, the increase in cultivated land and the decrease in forestland and grassland increased landscape diversity and decreased landscape heterogeneity and fragmentation. During 2010-2020, the change range decreased, the spatial distribution was homogeneous, and the landscape diversity and fragmentation in the northwestern area increased significantly. (2) The supply of the five ESs continued to increase from 2000 to 2020. During 2000-2010, FS-SR, FS-LA and SR-LA were dominated by synergies. From 2010 to 2020, the proportion of trade-off units in all relationships increased, and HQ-FS, HQ-SR and HQ-LA were dominated by trade-offs. (3) Landscape patterns had complex impacts on trade-offs/synergies, and the same landscape variable could have the opposite impact on specific trade-offs/synergies in different periods and areas. The results of this study will inform managers in developing regional sustainable ecosystem management strategies and advocating for more research to address ecological issues from a spatial-temporal perspective.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:世界范围内对类风湿关节炎(RA)患者住院率(HR)的空间变异性知之甚少,尤其是在中国。
    方法:对湖南省医院收治的RA患者进行横断面研究。使用全局MoranI和局部空间关联指标来探索RA患者HR的地理空间格局。使用广义估计方程分析和地理加权回归来确定RA患者HR的潜在影响因素。
    结果:共有11599人入院,湖南平均HR为1.57/10000人口。我们通过空间关联的局部指标检测了RA患者中HR的不同聚类模式。年龄,种族,平均温度,平均温度范围,平均降雨量,regions,人均国内生产总值,每10000人中的医生和医院是HR的危险因素。然而,只有平均温度,不同县的人均国内生产总值和每10000人的医院对HR的回归系数不同。医院的增加增加了湖南从东到西HR的概率,系数为正,当温度降低时,从南到北的HR风险增加。同样,人均国内生产总值的增长降低了人力资源从西南到东北的概率。
    结论:湖南地区RA患者HR呈非随机空间分布,和平均温度,不同县的人均国内生产总值和每10000人的医院对HR的回归系数不同。我们的研究表明,空间和地统计学可能是RA患者进一步研究的有用方法。
    Little is known about spatial variability of hospitalisation rate (HR) of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) worldwide, especially in China.
    A cross-sectional study was conducted among patients with RA admitted to hospitals in Hunan Province. Global Moran\'s I and local indicators of spatial association were used to explore the geospatial pattern of the HR of patients with RA. Generalised estimating equation analysis and geographically weighted regression were used to identify the potential influencing factors of the HR of patients with RA.
    There were a total of 11 599 admissions, and the average HR was 1.57 per 10 000 population in Hunan. We detected different cluster patterns of the HR among patients with RA by local indicators of spatial association. Age, ethnicity, average temperature, average temperature range, average rainfall, regions, gross domestic product per capita, and doctors and hospitals per 10 000 people were risk factors for the HR. However, only average temperature, gross domestic product per capita and hospitals per 10 000 people showed different regression coefficients on the HR in different counties. The increase in hospitals increased the probability of HR from east to west in Hunan with a positive coefficient, while temperature decreases increased the risk of HR from south to north negatively. Similarly, the growth of gross domestic product per capita decreased the probability of HR from southwest to northeast.
    A non-random spatial distribution of the HR of patients with RA was demonstrated in Hunan, and average temperature, gross domestic product per capita and hospitals per 10 000 people showed different regression coefficients on the HR in different counties. Our study indicated that spatial and geostatistics may be useful approaches for further study among patients with RA.
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  • 文章类型: English Abstract
    目的:步行练习是当地居民身体活动水平的代表性指标。尽管世界卫生组织将减少身体活动不足的患病率作为全球目标,韩国的步行练习率没有提高,存在很大的地区差异。因此,本研究旨在探讨韩国步行练习的空间变化及其相关因素。
    方法:使用韩国疾病控制和预防中心的社区卫生结果和健康决定因素数据库1.3进行了二次分析。共有229个区被纳入分析。我们比较了普通最小二乘(OLS)和地理加权回归(GWR),以探索步行练习的相关因素。使用MGWR2.2.1软件探索步行练习的空间分布并对GWR进行建模。
    结果:步行练习在全国范围内具有空间差异。结果表明,GWR模型比OLS模型具有更好的空间自相关适应性。GWR结果表明,韩国各地区步行练习的预测因素不同。
    结论:这项研究的发现可以为护理研究人员提供见解,卫生专业人员,和政策制定者规划健康计划,以促进各自社区的步行实践。
    OBJECTIVE: Walking practice is a representative indicator of the level of physical activity of local residents. Although the world health organization addressed reduction in prevalence of insufficient physical activity as a global target, the rate of walking practice in Korea has not improved and there are large regional disparities. Therefore, this study aimed to explore the spatial variations of walking practice and its associated factors in Korea.
    METHODS: A secondary analysis was conducted using Community Health Outcome and Health Determinants Database 1.3 from Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A total of 229 districts was included in the analysis. We compared the ordinary least squares (OLS) and the geographically weighted regression (GWR) to explore the associated factors of walking practice. MGWR 2.2.1 software was used to explore the spatial distribution of walking practice and modeling the GWR.
    RESULTS: Walking practice had spatial variations across the country. The results showed that the GWR model had better accommodation of spatial autocorrelation than the OLS model. The GWR results indicated that different predictors of walking practice across regions of Korea.
    CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this study may provide insight to nursing researchers, health professionals, and policy makers in planning health programs to promote walking practices in their respective communities.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    促进城市化与森林生态安全的协调与共生,对于促进区域绿色可持续发展,实现排放峰值和碳中和目标至关重要。然而,城市化与森林生态安全之间的耦合协调关系及其影响机制尚缺乏深入的分析。根据长江经济带844个县的数据,研究了城市化与森林生态安全耦合协调度的空间差异及其影响因素。结果表明:i)城市化指数存在明显的空间差异,森林生态安全指数,综合指数,长江经济带的耦合度和耦合协调度。其中,耦合协调度的空间格局与城市化指数具有较强的一致性,也就是说,城市化指数较高的地区也具有较高的耦合协调度。ii)基于耦合特征识别,发现249个“问题地区”主要位于云南省,贵州省东南部,安徽省中部,和江苏省中东部。城市化协调发展滞后是其形成的主要因素。iii)在社会经济指标中,人口结构(0.136),人均金融机构年末贷款余额(0.409)和人均固定资产投资(0.202)均对耦合协调度产生正向影响,而位置条件(-0.126)有负面影响。在自然指标中,土壤有机质(-0.212)和温度(-0.094)对耦合协调度有负面影响。iv)在协调发展过程中,有必要增加财政投入和金融支持,积极制定吸引人才的政策,加强生态文明教育和宣传,发展绿色循环经济。上述措施可促进长江经济带城镇化与森林生态安全的协调发展。
    Boosting the coordination and symbiosis of urbanization and forest ecological security is notably critical for promoting regional green and sustainable development and achieving emission peak and carbon neutrality goals. However, there was still a lack of in-depth analysis of the coupling coordination relationship between urbanization and forest ecological security and its impact mechanism. On the basis of the data from 844 counties in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, this paper explored the spatial differences and influencing factors of the coupling coordination degree of urbanization and forest ecological security. The results manifested that: i) There were apparent spatial disparities in the urbanization index, forest ecological security index, comprehensive index, coupling degree and coupling coordination degree of the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Among them, the spatial pattern of coupling coordination degree had a strong consistency with urbanization index, that is, areas with higher urbanization index also had higher coupling coordination degree. ii) Based on coupling feature identification, it was found that 249 \'problem areas\' were mainly located in Yunnan Province, southeastern Guizhou Province, central Anhui Province, and central and eastern Jiangsu Province. The main factor for the formation was due to the lag of urbanization in coordinated development. iii) Among the socioeconomic indicators, population structure (0.136), per capita year-end financial institutions loan balance (0.409) and per capita fixed asset investment (0.202) all had a positive impact on coupling coordination degree, while location conditions (-0.126) had a negative impact. Among the natural indicators, soil organic matter (-0.212) and temperature (-0.094) had a negative impact on coupling coordination degree. iv) During the process of coordinated development, it was necessary to increase financial investment and financial support, actively formulate policies to attract talents, enhance the education and publicity of ecological civilization, and develop a green circular economy. The above measures can promote the harmonious development of urbanization and forest ecological security in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    确定自行车共享使用模式及其需求的解释因素对于自行车共享系统(BSS)的有效运行至关重要。大多数BSS提供随使用周期而变化的不同通路。然而,与在系统级别进行的研究相比,调查使用模式差异的研究很少见,尽管取决于通行证类型的解释因素可能会导致使用模式方面的不同特征。这项研究探讨了BSS使用模式的差异以及解释因素对需求的影响,具体取决于通行证的类型。各种机器学习技术,包括聚类,回归,和分类,使用,除了基本的统计分析。正如观察到的,六个月以上的长期季节通行证主要用于运输(尤其是通勤),而一天或短期的季节通行证似乎更多地用于休闲而不是其他目的。此外,自行车租赁目的的差异似乎导致使用模式的差异和需求随时间和空间的变化。这项研究提高了对每种传递类型出现不同的使用模式的理解,并为城市地区BSS的有效运行提供见解。
    UNASSIGNED:在线版本包含补充材料,可在10.1007/s11116-023-10371-7获得。
    Determining bike-sharing usage patterns and their explanatory factors on demand is essential for the effective and efficient operation of bike-sharing systems (BSSs). Most BSSs provide different passes that vary with the period of use. However, studies investigating the differences in usage patterns are rare compared to studies conducted at the system level, even though explanatory factors depending on the type of pass may cause different characteristics in terms of usage patterns. This study explores the differences in the usage patterns of BSSs and the impact of explanatory factors on the demand depending on the type of pass. Various machine learning techniques, including clustering, regression, and classification, are used, in addition to basic statistical analysis. As observed, long-term season passes of over six months are mainly used for transportation (especially commuting), whereas one-day or short-term season passes seem to be used more for leisure than for other purposes. Furthermore, differences in the purpose of bike rentals seem to cause differences in usage patterns and variations in demand over time and space. This study improves ther understanding of the usage patterns that appear differently for each pass type, and provides insights into the efficient operation of BSSs in urban areas.
    UNASSIGNED: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11116-023-10371-7.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    随着细颗粒物(PM2.5)对人类生命和健康的威胁在全球范围内增加,环境污染引起的生命和健康问题也日益受到关注。了解PM2.5的过去趋势和探索PM2.5的驱动因素是解决PM2.5引起的威胁生命的健康问题的重要工具。在这项研究中,我们使用Theil-Sen中位数趋势分析方法计算了2000年至2020年全球PM2.5年平均浓度的变化,并揭示了21年来PM2.5浓度的时空趋势。采用多尺度地理加权回归模型,从自然和社会经济角度探讨了不同驱动因素对2020年PM2.5浓度的定性和定量影响。结果表明,PM2.5浓度变化趋势存在显著的空间异质性,PM2.5浓度显著下降,主要在发达地区,比如美国,加拿大,日本和欧盟国家,反过来,发展中地区PM2.5显著上升,比如非洲,中东和印度。此外,在科学技术和城市管理更加先进的地区,PM2.5浓度受各种因素影响比较均匀,更负面的影响。相比之下,处于快速发展阶段的地区通常以环境为代价继续其经济发展,在高强度的人类活动下。温度升高被认为是PM2.5浓度升高的最重要因素,而NDVI的增加可以在PM2.5浓度的降低中起重要作用。这表明各国可以通过设定合理的发展路径来实现良好的空气质量目标。
    As the threat to human life and health from fine particulate matter (PM2.5) increases globally, the life and health problems caused by environmental pollution are also of increasing concern. Understanding past trends in PM2.5 and exploring the drivers of PM2.5 are important tools for addressing the life-threatening health problems caused by PM2.5. In this study, we calculated the change in annual average global PM2.5 concentrations from 2000 to 2020 using the Theil-Sen median trend analysis method and reveal spatial and temporal trends in PM2.5 concentrations over twenty-one years. The qualitative and quantitative effects of different drivers on PM2.5 concentrations in 2020 were explored from natural and socioeconomic perspectives using a multi-scale geographically weighted regression model. The results show that there is significant spatial heterogeneity in trends in PM2.5 concentration, with significant decreases in PM2.5 concentrations mainly in developed regions, such as the United States, Canada, Japan and the European Union countries, and conversely, significant increases in PM2.5 in developing regions, such as Africa, the Middle East and India. In addition, in regions with more advanced science and technology and urban management, PM2.5 concentrations are more evenly influenced by various factors, with a more negative influence. In contrast, regions at the rapid development stage usually continue their economic development at the cost of the environment, and under a high intensity of human activity. Increased temperature is known as the most important factor for the increase in PM2.5 concentration, while an increase in NDVI can play an important role in the reduction in PM2.5 concentration. This suggests that countries can achieve good air quality goals by setting a reasonable development path.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    健康的生态系统是城市可持续发展的基础。快速城市化改变了景观格局和生态功能,导致对生态系统健康的干扰。探索城市化对生态系统健康的影响及其空间关系对于“一带一路”沿线城市实现区域可持续发展具有重要意义。本研究以粤港澳大湾区(GBA)为例,利用多源数据测算了2000-2020年的城市化水平(UL)和生态系统健康指数(EHI)。我们使用了双变量空间自相关,地理加权回归模型(GWR),和基于最优参数的地理检测器(OPGD)模型,从多角度阐明城市化对生态系统健康的影响及其空间关系。本研究的主要发现是:(1)研究期间GBA中的EHI显著下降,从0.282下降到0.255,而UL显着增加,表现出相反的空间分布特征;(2)GBA中UL与EHI之间存在显着的负空间相关性,高低和低高类型之间存在显着的空间异质性;(3)城市化对生态系统健康的负面影响在中部GBA中占主导地位,并变得更加明显。此外,城市化产生了越来越显著的负面影响,导致生态系统健康的恶化,在中央GBA。人口城市化带动土地城市化,成为影响GBA生态系统健康的主要因素。总的来说,城市化对生态系统健康有显著的负面影响,这种影响在GBA的核心城市接合部尤为突出,这需要紧急关注。研究结果为“一带一路”沿线城市稳定城市化和生态系统健康保护提供决策依据。
    A healthy ecosystem is fundamental for sustainable urban development. Rapid urbanization has altered landscape patterns and ecological functions, resulting in disturbances to ecosystem health. Exploring the effects of urbanization on ecosystem health and the spatial relationships between them is significant for cities along the \"Belt and Road\" aiming to achieve sustainable regional development. This study took the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) as an example and measured the urbanization level (UL) and ecosystem health index (EHI) from 2000 to 2020 using multisource data. We used bivariate spatial autocorrelation, the geographically weighted regression model (GWR), and the optimal parameters-based geographical detector (OPGD) model to clarify the impact of urbanization on ecosystem health and the spatial relationship between them from multiple perspectives. The major findings of this study were: (1) the EHI in the GBA decreased significantly during the study period, dropping from 0.282 to 0.255, whereas the UL increased significantly, exhibiting opposite spatial distribution features; (2) there was a significant negative spatial correlation between UL and the EHI and significant spatial heterogeneity between high-low and low-high types in the GBA; (3) the negative effects of urbanization on ecosystem health were predominant and becoming more pronounced in the central GBA. Moreover, urbanization had an increasingly significant negative effect, leading to the deterioration of ecosystem health, in the central GBA. Population urbanization drove land urbanization, which became the main factor affecting ecosystem health in the GBA. Overall, urbanization had a significant negative effect on ecosystem health, with this impact being particularly prominent in the core urban junctions of the GBA, which require urgent attention. The results of the study provide a basis for decision making in the context of the steady urbanization and ecosystem health protection of cities along the \"Belt and Road\".
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    全球,与人类免疫缺陷病毒(HIV)作斗争的政策使年轻人的获得性免疫缺陷综合症(AIDS)死亡率略有下降。为了提高政策效力,有必要确定每个地区的社会健康决定因素(SDH)的影响。这项研究的目的是在空间上分析巴西亚马逊省年轻人的艾滋病死亡率以及SDH促进的死亡率的空间变异性。该研究包括2007年至2018年期间生活在帕拉州的年轻人中的所有艾滋病死亡报告。死亡率采用空间分布和自相关分析,空间扫描,和地理加权回归(GWR)。在学习期间,随着地域的扩大,年轻人中有1372人死于艾滋病。空间自相关在2007年至2010年期间显示出两个高-高集群,一个由东南部的帕拉市形成,一个在贝伦大都市区形成,只有后者在2011年至2018年之间。该地区显示出更高的艾滋病死亡率空间风险,并且是2013-2018年期间唯一具有时空风险的集群。i)青年凶杀率促进了空间变异性,ii)小学辍学率和iii)在社会计划统一登记处(Cadünico)注册的家庭数量。这项研究为执行有效的重点政策以抗击艾滋病毒和降低帕拉年轻人的死亡率提供了支持。
    Worldwide, policies to combat human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) have led to a small decrease in the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) mortality rate among young people. For greater policy efficacy, it is necessary to determine the influence of social determinants of health (SDHs) in each territory. The objective of this study was to spatially analyse the AIDS mortality rate among young people in a province of the Brazilian Amazon and the spatial variability of the rate promoted by SDHs. All reports of AIDS deaths between 2007 and 2018 among young people living in the state of Pará were included in the study. The mortality rate was analysed using spatial distribution and autocorrelation, spatial scanning, and geographically weighted regression (GWR). During the study period, there were 1,372 deaths from AIDS among young people with a territorial expansion. The spatial autocorrelation showed two high-high clusters in the period from 2007 to 2010, one formed by municipalities in south-eastern Pará and one in the metropolitan region of Belém, with only the latter remaining between 2011 and 2018. This region showed a higher spatial risk for AIDS mortality and was the only cluster with spatiotemporal risk in the 2013-2018 period. Spatial variability was promoted by the i) the youth homicide rate, ii) the elementary school dropout rate and iii) the number of families registered in the Unified Registry for Social Programs (CadÚnico). This study provides support for the implementation of effective focal policies to combat HIV and reduce the mortality rate among young people in Pará.
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