Spatial Regression

空间回归
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    探索景观格局在生态系统服务(ES)之间的权衡/协同作用中的作用有助于理解ES的产生和传输过程,对多种ES管理具有重要意义。然而,很少有研究解决景观格局对ESs之间权衡/协同作用的影响的潜在时空异质性。这项研究评估了景观格局和五个典型的ESs(保水(WR),食品供应(FS),栖息地质量(HQ),土壤保留(SR),和景观美学(LA))在陕北黄土高原上,并使用修订后的权衡/协同度指标来衡量ESs之间的权衡/协同。构建了多尺度地理加权回归(MGWR)模型,以确定景观格局对权衡/协同作用影响的时空异质性。结果表明:(1)2000~2010年,耕地的增加和林地和草地的减少增加了景观多样性,降低了景观异质性和破碎性。2010-2020年,变化幅度有所下降,空间分布均匀,西北地区景观多样性和破碎性显著增加。(2)2000年至2020年,五大ESs的供应量持续增长。在2000-2010年期间,FS-SR,FS-LA和SR-LA以协同作用为主。从2010年到2020年,权衡单位在所有关系中的比例增加,和总部-FS,HQ-SR和HQ-LA以权衡为主导。(3)景观格局对权衡/协同作用有复杂的影响,而同一景观变量可能对不同时期和领域的特定权衡/协同作用产生相反的影响。这项研究的结果将为管理者制定区域可持续生态系统管理战略和倡导更多研究从时空角度解决生态问题提供信息。
    Exploring the role of landscape patterns in the trade-offs/synergies among ecosystem services (ESs) is helpful for understanding ES generation and transmission processes and is of great significance for multiple ES management. However, few studies have addressed the potential spatial-temporal heterogeneity in the influence of landscape patterns on trade-offs/synergies among ESs. This study assessed the landscape patterns and five typical ESs (water retention (WR), food supply (FS), habitat quality (HQ), soil retention (SR), and landscape aesthetics (LA)) on the Loess Plateau of northern Shaanxi and used the revised trade-off/synergy degree indicator to measure trade-offs/synergies among ESs. The multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model was constructed to determine the spatial-temporal heterogeneity in the influence of landscape patterns on the trade-offs/synergies. The results showed that (1) from 2000 to 2010, the increase in cultivated land and the decrease in forestland and grassland increased landscape diversity and decreased landscape heterogeneity and fragmentation. During 2010-2020, the change range decreased, the spatial distribution was homogeneous, and the landscape diversity and fragmentation in the northwestern area increased significantly. (2) The supply of the five ESs continued to increase from 2000 to 2020. During 2000-2010, FS-SR, FS-LA and SR-LA were dominated by synergies. From 2010 to 2020, the proportion of trade-off units in all relationships increased, and HQ-FS, HQ-SR and HQ-LA were dominated by trade-offs. (3) Landscape patterns had complex impacts on trade-offs/synergies, and the same landscape variable could have the opposite impact on specific trade-offs/synergies in different periods and areas. The results of this study will inform managers in developing regional sustainable ecosystem management strategies and advocating for more research to address ecological issues from a spatial-temporal perspective.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    行人伤亡是一个严重的国内和国际问题。这项研究分析了行人伤亡的空间分布,以定义影响因素并描述其预测方法。收集了三年的碰撞数据以及其他因素,并使用核密度估计(KDE)进行了分析,空间自相关(Moran\'sI),聚类K-均值,空间回归,和一般线性回归(GLM)。核密度估计定义了1250米内的一组行人死亡。根据Moran\'sI,17/22关于伤亡的属性,公路网,人口统计,土地利用具有积极的价值,表明相似的重要性聚类。行人伤亡的空间格局具有随机性和不显著性,不随时间变化。伤亡与周围属性负相关,表明有分散的趋势。对多个变量的K均值分析显示,当聚类中包含的变量较高时,方差解释百分比较低。在假设泊松分布的多变量GLM中,单独或结合房屋许可证的道路网络长度是伤亡的最佳预测因素。经典回归没有被空间维度显著增强,自回归系数均不显著。基于泊松的GLM模型的预测与经典回归相似。
    Pedestrian casualties are a severe domestic as well as international problem. This study analyses the spatial distribution of pedestrian casualties to define contributory factors and delineate the means for their prediction. Three years of crash data were collected along with other factors and analysed using kernel density estimation (KDE), spatial autocorrelation (Moran\'s I), cluster K-Means, spatial regression, and general linear regressions (GLM). Kernel density estimate defines a cluster of pedestrian deaths within 1250 meters. According to Moran\'s I, 17/22 attributes about casualties, road networks, demographics, and land use have positive values, indicating similar importance clustering. The spatial pattern of pedestrian casualties is random and insignificant and does not change with time. Casualties are negatively related to the surrounding attributes, indicating a tendency towards dispersion. A K-Means analysis of multiple variables revealed that when variables included in the clustering were higher, the variance explanation percentage was lower. In the multi-variable GLM assuming Poisson distribution, the road network length alone or with the house permits combined were the best predictors of casualties. Classic regressions were not significantly enhanced by spatial dimension, and none of the autoregressive coefficients were significant. The predictions from the Poisson-based GLM model are similar to the classic regressions.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    促进城市化与森林生态安全的协调与共生,对于促进区域绿色可持续发展,实现排放峰值和碳中和目标至关重要。然而,城市化与森林生态安全之间的耦合协调关系及其影响机制尚缺乏深入的分析。根据长江经济带844个县的数据,研究了城市化与森林生态安全耦合协调度的空间差异及其影响因素。结果表明:i)城市化指数存在明显的空间差异,森林生态安全指数,综合指数,长江经济带的耦合度和耦合协调度。其中,耦合协调度的空间格局与城市化指数具有较强的一致性,也就是说,城市化指数较高的地区也具有较高的耦合协调度。ii)基于耦合特征识别,发现249个“问题地区”主要位于云南省,贵州省东南部,安徽省中部,和江苏省中东部。城市化协调发展滞后是其形成的主要因素。iii)在社会经济指标中,人口结构(0.136),人均金融机构年末贷款余额(0.409)和人均固定资产投资(0.202)均对耦合协调度产生正向影响,而位置条件(-0.126)有负面影响。在自然指标中,土壤有机质(-0.212)和温度(-0.094)对耦合协调度有负面影响。iv)在协调发展过程中,有必要增加财政投入和金融支持,积极制定吸引人才的政策,加强生态文明教育和宣传,发展绿色循环经济。上述措施可促进长江经济带城镇化与森林生态安全的协调发展。
    Boosting the coordination and symbiosis of urbanization and forest ecological security is notably critical for promoting regional green and sustainable development and achieving emission peak and carbon neutrality goals. However, there was still a lack of in-depth analysis of the coupling coordination relationship between urbanization and forest ecological security and its impact mechanism. On the basis of the data from 844 counties in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, this paper explored the spatial differences and influencing factors of the coupling coordination degree of urbanization and forest ecological security. The results manifested that: i) There were apparent spatial disparities in the urbanization index, forest ecological security index, comprehensive index, coupling degree and coupling coordination degree of the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Among them, the spatial pattern of coupling coordination degree had a strong consistency with urbanization index, that is, areas with higher urbanization index also had higher coupling coordination degree. ii) Based on coupling feature identification, it was found that 249 \'problem areas\' were mainly located in Yunnan Province, southeastern Guizhou Province, central Anhui Province, and central and eastern Jiangsu Province. The main factor for the formation was due to the lag of urbanization in coordinated development. iii) Among the socioeconomic indicators, population structure (0.136), per capita year-end financial institutions loan balance (0.409) and per capita fixed asset investment (0.202) all had a positive impact on coupling coordination degree, while location conditions (-0.126) had a negative impact. Among the natural indicators, soil organic matter (-0.212) and temperature (-0.094) had a negative impact on coupling coordination degree. iv) During the process of coordinated development, it was necessary to increase financial investment and financial support, actively formulate policies to attract talents, enhance the education and publicity of ecological civilization, and develop a green circular economy. The above measures can promote the harmonious development of urbanization and forest ecological security in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    确定自行车共享使用模式及其需求的解释因素对于自行车共享系统(BSS)的有效运行至关重要。大多数BSS提供随使用周期而变化的不同通路。然而,与在系统级别进行的研究相比,调查使用模式差异的研究很少见,尽管取决于通行证类型的解释因素可能会导致使用模式方面的不同特征。这项研究探讨了BSS使用模式的差异以及解释因素对需求的影响,具体取决于通行证的类型。各种机器学习技术,包括聚类,回归,和分类,使用,除了基本的统计分析。正如观察到的,六个月以上的长期季节通行证主要用于运输(尤其是通勤),而一天或短期的季节通行证似乎更多地用于休闲而不是其他目的。此外,自行车租赁目的的差异似乎导致使用模式的差异和需求随时间和空间的变化。这项研究提高了对每种传递类型出现不同的使用模式的理解,并为城市地区BSS的有效运行提供见解。
    UNASSIGNED:在线版本包含补充材料,可在10.1007/s11116-023-10371-7获得。
    Determining bike-sharing usage patterns and their explanatory factors on demand is essential for the effective and efficient operation of bike-sharing systems (BSSs). Most BSSs provide different passes that vary with the period of use. However, studies investigating the differences in usage patterns are rare compared to studies conducted at the system level, even though explanatory factors depending on the type of pass may cause different characteristics in terms of usage patterns. This study explores the differences in the usage patterns of BSSs and the impact of explanatory factors on the demand depending on the type of pass. Various machine learning techniques, including clustering, regression, and classification, are used, in addition to basic statistical analysis. As observed, long-term season passes of over six months are mainly used for transportation (especially commuting), whereas one-day or short-term season passes seem to be used more for leisure than for other purposes. Furthermore, differences in the purpose of bike rentals seem to cause differences in usage patterns and variations in demand over time and space. This study improves ther understanding of the usage patterns that appear differently for each pass type, and provides insights into the efficient operation of BSSs in urban areas.
    UNASSIGNED: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11116-023-10371-7.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    健康的生态系统是城市可持续发展的基础。快速城市化改变了景观格局和生态功能,导致对生态系统健康的干扰。探索城市化对生态系统健康的影响及其空间关系对于“一带一路”沿线城市实现区域可持续发展具有重要意义。本研究以粤港澳大湾区(GBA)为例,利用多源数据测算了2000-2020年的城市化水平(UL)和生态系统健康指数(EHI)。我们使用了双变量空间自相关,地理加权回归模型(GWR),和基于最优参数的地理检测器(OPGD)模型,从多角度阐明城市化对生态系统健康的影响及其空间关系。本研究的主要发现是:(1)研究期间GBA中的EHI显著下降,从0.282下降到0.255,而UL显着增加,表现出相反的空间分布特征;(2)GBA中UL与EHI之间存在显着的负空间相关性,高低和低高类型之间存在显着的空间异质性;(3)城市化对生态系统健康的负面影响在中部GBA中占主导地位,并变得更加明显。此外,城市化产生了越来越显著的负面影响,导致生态系统健康的恶化,在中央GBA。人口城市化带动土地城市化,成为影响GBA生态系统健康的主要因素。总的来说,城市化对生态系统健康有显著的负面影响,这种影响在GBA的核心城市接合部尤为突出,这需要紧急关注。研究结果为“一带一路”沿线城市稳定城市化和生态系统健康保护提供决策依据。
    A healthy ecosystem is fundamental for sustainable urban development. Rapid urbanization has altered landscape patterns and ecological functions, resulting in disturbances to ecosystem health. Exploring the effects of urbanization on ecosystem health and the spatial relationships between them is significant for cities along the \"Belt and Road\" aiming to achieve sustainable regional development. This study took the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) as an example and measured the urbanization level (UL) and ecosystem health index (EHI) from 2000 to 2020 using multisource data. We used bivariate spatial autocorrelation, the geographically weighted regression model (GWR), and the optimal parameters-based geographical detector (OPGD) model to clarify the impact of urbanization on ecosystem health and the spatial relationship between them from multiple perspectives. The major findings of this study were: (1) the EHI in the GBA decreased significantly during the study period, dropping from 0.282 to 0.255, whereas the UL increased significantly, exhibiting opposite spatial distribution features; (2) there was a significant negative spatial correlation between UL and the EHI and significant spatial heterogeneity between high-low and low-high types in the GBA; (3) the negative effects of urbanization on ecosystem health were predominant and becoming more pronounced in the central GBA. Moreover, urbanization had an increasingly significant negative effect, leading to the deterioration of ecosystem health, in the central GBA. Population urbanization drove land urbanization, which became the main factor affecting ecosystem health in the GBA. Overall, urbanization had a significant negative effect on ecosystem health, with this impact being particularly prominent in the core urban junctions of the GBA, which require urgent attention. The results of the study provide a basis for decision making in the context of the steady urbanization and ecosystem health protection of cities along the \"Belt and Road\".
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    准确估计降水的时空分布对于水文建模至关重要。然而,基于单一来源的降水产品有其优点和缺点。如何有效结合不同降水数据集的优势,成为近年来国际上开发优质降水产品的重要课题。本文利用太湖流域多源加权集成降水(MSWEP)实测降水资料和原位降水观测,以及经度,纬度,高程,斜坡,方面,表面粗糙度,距离海岸线,以及土地利用和土地覆盖数据,并采用两步法实现降水融合:(1)采用双线性插值方法对MSWEP源降水场进行降维;(2)采用地理加权回归(GWR)方法和三立方函数加权方法实现融合。考虑到地理和人类活动因素,检测了MSWEP中降水误差的时空分布。实现了MSWEP与轨距观测降水的融合。结果表明,本文方法显著提高了太湖流域降水数据的空间分辨率和精度。
    Accurately estimating the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation is crucial for hydrological modeling. However, precipitation products based on a single source have their advantages and disadvantages. How to effectively combine the advantages of different precipitation datasets has become an important topic in developing high-quality precipitation products internationally in recent years. This paper uses the measured precipitation data of Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) and in situ rainfall observation in the Taihu Lake Basin, as well as the longitude, latitude, elevation, slope, aspect, surface roughness, distance to the coastline, and land use and land cover data, and adopts a two-step method to achieve precipitation fusion: (1) downscaling the MSWEP source precipitation field using the bilinear interpolation method and (2) using the geographically weighted regression (GWR) method and tri-cube function weighting method to achieve fusion. Considering geographical and human activities factors, the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation errors in MSWEP is detected. The fusion of MSWEP and gauge observation precipitation is realized. The results show that the method in this paper significantly improves the spatial resolution and accuracy of precipitation data in the Taihu Lake Basin.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    西北地区是我国主要的能源供应和消费地区。科学估算县级碳排放(CE),分析长时间序列中CE的时空特征和影响因素,对于制定有针对性的CE减排计划具有重要意义。在本文中,Landscan数据用于辅助NPP-VIIRS类数据模拟2001年至2019年的CE。使用两阶段嵌套Theil指数和地理和时间加权回归模型(GTWR)分析了CE的时空异质性。从2001年到2019年,中国西北地区的CE逐年增加,而增长速度放缓。空间格局形成了以省会为代表的高价值区域为中心的圆形扩张,这在陕西和宁夏之间的边界也很明显。沿河西走廊轴向扩张明显。CE的空间格局符合帕累托原则;西北各县CE的空间相关性逐年增加,高聚区不断扩大。具有明显的高碳溢出效应。受生态环境的制约,青海西南部和秦岭-大巴山地区是稳定的低低集聚区。西北地区CE的空间格局表现出明显的空间异质性。区域内的差异大于区域之间的差异。“群体内趋同、群体间分化”变化趋势明显。根据五年社会经济指标,经济规模(GDP),人口规模(POP),城市化水平(UR)是主要影响因素。效果的方向和强度在时间和空间上都发生了变化。同一因子在不同区域表现出不同的作用强度。
    Northwest region is the main energy supply and consumption area in China. Scientifically estimating carbon emissions (CE) at the county level and analyzing the spatial-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of CE in a long time series are of great significance for formulating targeted CE reduction plans. In this paper, Landscan data are used to assist NPP-VIIRS-like data to simulate the CE from 2001 to 2019. Spatial-temporal heterogeneity of CE was analyzed by using a two-stage nested Theil index and geographically and temporally weighted regression model (GTWR). The CE in northwest China at the county increases yearly while the growth rate slows down from 2001 to 2019. The spatial pattern forms a circle expansion centered on the high-value areas represented by the provincial capital, which is also obvious at the border between Shaanxi and Ningxia. Axial expansion along the Hexi Corridor is conspicuous. The spatial pattern of CE conforms to the Pareto principle; the spatial correlation of CE in northwest counties is increasing year by year, and the high-high agglomeration areas are expanding continuously. It is an obvious high carbon spillover effect. Restricted by the ecological environment, the southwest of Qinghai and the Qinling-Daba Mountain area are stable low-low agglomeration areas. The spatial pattern of CE in northwest China shows remarkable spatial heterogeneity. The difference within regions is greater than that between regions. The \"convergence within groups and divergence between groups\" changing trend is obvious. According to the five-year socioeconomic indicators, the economic scale (GDP), population scale (POP), and urbanization level (UR) are the main influencing factors. The direction and intensity of the effect have changed in time and space. The same factor shows different action intensities in different regions.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    为探讨中国土地利用功能的时空演变及其驱动因素,以胡线两岸为例,利用探索性空间数据分析和地理加权回归方法揭示动态演化规律,湖线两侧288个地级市“生产-生活-生态”功能的空间特征及影响因素.结果表明:(1)在时间维度上,中国土地利用“生产-生活-生态”功能的协调性得到改善,胡线大致可以作为中国领土空间利用的边界。(2)在空间维度上,中国土地利用“生产-生活-生态”功能之间存在显著的正空间相关性,胡线两侧土地利用“生产-生活-生态”功能之间的协调差距正在逐步缩小。(3)在影响机制方面,“生产-生活-生态”功能的协调主要由内部因素驱动,外部因素为辅。大多数驱动因素的影响格局与胡线“东强西弱”的布局特征一致。
    In order to explore the spatiotemporal evolution of land use function and its driving factors in China, taking both sides of the Hu Line as an example, we used Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis and Geographically Weighted Regression methods to reveal dynamic evolution law, spatial characteristics and influencing factors of the \"Production-Living-Ecology\" functions of 288 prefecture-level cities on both sides of the Hu Line. The results show that: (1) In the temporal dimension, the coordination of \"Production-Living-Ecology\" functions of land use in China has been improved, and the Hu Line can be roughly used as the boundary of China\'s territorial space use. (2) In the spatial dimension, there is a significant positive spatial correlation between \"Production-Living-Ecology\" functions of land use in China, and the coordination gap between \"Production-Living-Ecology\" functions of land use on both sides of the Hu Line is gradually narrowing. (3) In terms of influencing mechanism, the coordination of \"Production-Living-Ecology\" functions is mainly driven by internal factors and is supplemented by external ones. The influence pattern of most driving factors is consistent with the layout characteristics of \"strong east and weak west\" of the Hu Line.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    There is a complicated and contradictory relationship between landscape functions and human activities, especially in the suburban rural communities of metropolises. Previous studies focused on human interference to landscape function, ignoring the impact of landscape functions on human activities. Hence, the present study is focused on the impact of landscape function (based on ecosystem services) on human activities in suburban rural communities of China. The study evaluated the intensity of human activities based on big data; furthermore, the authors analyzed the spatial distribution characteristics through spatial autocorrelation, and probed into the spatial variations in the relationship between human activities and landscape functions using ordinary least squares (OLS) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models. The result indicates that there are obvious spatial distribution differences in the intensity of human activities in suburban rural communities; that is, the intensity decreases from the inner to the outer suburban areas. Positive influencing factors of human activities are construction area, bus station, road network density, and leisure entertainment, among which, construction area is the principal driver; cultural heritage, hydrological regulation, and provision of aesthetics are negatively or positively correlated with human activities in various regions. The results offer insights for the sustainable development of rural environment in suburban areas and the big data-driven rural research.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    已通过地理加权回归(GWR)模型广泛研究了地表温度(LST)与土地利用因子之间的空间变化关系。然而,由风向引起的方向变化关系尚未被考虑。在这项研究中,提取了2017年武汉夏季和冬季的风向,建立了地理方向加权回归(GDWR),以确定它们之间的空间和方向变化关系.结果表明,GDWR模型在夏季和冬季都提高了R2和显著性。特别是,GDWR在2017年冬季表现最好,由基于普通最小二乘(OLS)的多元线性回归(MLR)和GWR提供的R2从0.0688增加到0.6635,由GDWR到0.7839,整个研究区域的P值都低于0.05。此外,冬季,通过GDWR,武汉北部和东南部的残留物已大大减少。这可能是因为在冬天,风从南到北。但是GDWR并没有减少武汉中部的残差。这表明风会在郊区引起明显的方向变化关系;而在存在复杂土地利用的中心城市,它不会对LST与其驱动因素之间的关系产生重大影响。
    The spatially varying relationship between land surface temperature (LST) and land-use factors at a large scale has been widely studied by geographically weighted regression (GWR) models. However, the directionally varying relationship caused by wind directions has not yet been considered. In this study, the wind directions in the summer and the winter of Wuhan in 2017 were extracted to build a geographically-directionally weighted regression (GDWR) to identify the spatially and directionally varying relationships between them. The results indicated that both the R2 and the significance have been improved by the GDWR model in the summer and the winter. Specially, the GDWR performed best in the winter of 2017, increasing R2 from 0.0688 to 0.6635 provided by ordinary least squares (OLS)-based multiple linear regression (MLR) and GWR, to 0.7839 by the GDWR, with P-value lower than 0.05 all across the study area. Furthermore, the residual has been dramatically reduced in the north and southeast part of Wuhan by GDWR in the winter. It\'s probably due to the fact that in the winter, wind was flowed from south to north. But the GDWR did not reduce the residual in central Wuhan. It suggests that the wind would cause an obviously directionally varying relationship in the suburbs; while it would not make a significant impact on the relationship between LST and its driving factors in the central city where complex land uses existed.
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