Shandong Province

山东省
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    斑疹伤寒,一种由Orientia虫引起的急性发热性疾病,是通过受感染的chi螨传播给人类的。我们介绍了使用下一代测序(NGS)和PCR诊断的山东省一名先前健康的人中的一例斑疹伤寒,并回顾了有关NGS诊断斑疹伤寒的最新文献。
    NGS用于检测入院时收集的全血。通过ELISA检测急性和恢复期血清中针对Orientia的IgM和IgG抗体,进行了确证测试。对焦痂sc疮DNA进行了Orientia47-kDa蛋白基因TaqMan和56-kDa蛋白基因的标准PCR和Sanger测序。
    通过47-kDa蛋白质基因TaqMan和对O.tsugamushi56-kDa蛋白质基因片段的测序证实了NGS的诊断。对该序列和NGS数据的分析表明O.tsugamushi菌株Cheeloo2020是一种新的基因型。NGS数据与O.tsu虫Gilliam菌株基因组序列的映射鉴定出304个具有高度相似性的读段。
    NGS不仅对斑疹伤寒的多重诊断有用,而且还提供了对O的遗传多样性的见解。虫。将序列提交到数据库的常见失败使得难以确定用于临床标本中OriediaDNA阳性鉴定的NGS数据的最小数量和质量。
    UNASSIGNED: Scrub typhus, an acute febrile disease caused by Orientia tsutsugamushi, is transmitted to humans through infected chigger mites. We present a case of scrub typhus in a previously healthy man from Shandong Province diagnosed using next-generation sequencing (NGS) and PCR and review recent literature on NGS for scrub typhus diagnosis.
    UNASSIGNED: NGS was utilized for testing whole blood collected on admission. Confirmatory testing was done by detecting IgM and IgG antibodies to Orientia in acute and convalescent sera by ELISA. Orientia 47-kDa protein gene TaqMan and standard PCR of the 56-kDa protein gene and Sanger sequencing were performed on eschar scab DNA.
    UNASSIGNED: The NGS diagnosis was confirmed by 47-kDa protein gene TaqMan and sequencing of a fragment of the O. tsutsugamushi 56-kDa protein gene from the eschar scab. Analysis of this sequence and the NGS data indicated O. tsutsugamushi strain Cheeloo2020 is a novel genotype. Mapping of the NGS data against the O. tsutsugamushi Gilliam strain genome sequence identified 304 reads with high similarity.
    UNASSIGNED: NGS is not only useful for multiplex diagnosis of scrub typhus, but also provides insight into the genetic diversity of O. tsutsugamushi. The common failure to submit sequences to databases makes it difficult to determine the minimal quantity and quality of NGS data being used for the positive identification of Orientia DNA in clinical specimens.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    作为环境破坏的负面影响,如空气质量下降和空气污染,变得更加明显,世界各地的环境意识正在增长,迫使各国采取措施减轻损害。中国承诺实现空气质量改善目标,以应对全球环境问题,然而,环境气象经济指数对空气质量的时空分异及其驱动因素尚未得到充分分析。推进区域协同治理大气污染,实现城市可持续发展,2013-2020年山东省空气质量时空差异及其驱动因素分析.结果表明,二氧化硫(SO2)的浓度,二氧化氮(NO2),颗粒物2.5(PM2.5),颗粒物10(PM10),一氧化碳(CO-95per)呈下降趋势(SO2浓度下降84%,CO-95per浓度下降90%)。从内陆地区到沿海地区,空气质量得到了改善。SO2、NO2、PM10、PM2.5和CO-95per污染物指标呈显著正相关(P<0.05)。气温和降水与SO2,NO2,PM10,PM2.5和CO-95per的浓度呈显着负相关,但与臭氧(O3-8h)呈显着正相关。SO2,NO2,PM2.5,PM10,CO-95per,重污染天数与第二产业比例呈极显著正相关,与第三产业比例、生活垃圾量呈极显著负相关。除O3-8h外,省会经济圈(PCEC)和鲁南经济圈(SSEC)污染物指数与地区生产总值和环境保护投资呈显著负相关(P<0.05),山东东部经济圈(ESEC)的环境保护投资与空气污染指数无显著相关性。蔬菜播种面积与SSEC污染物指数呈显著负相关。污染排放与环境保护投资的关系已从PCEC的高污染-低投资转变为低污染-低投资,ESEC和SSEC,PCEC的拐点在2020年,2019年ESEC,2020年为SSEC。研究结果为改善区域空气质量提供了经验证据和理论支持,实现高质量发展。根据这些发现,已经发现气象要素,污染物排放,社会经济因素和农业数据影响空气质量。这些结果可以为多种污染物的协同调控提供有意义和重要的支持。
    As the negative repercussions of environmental devastation, such as air quality decline and air pollution, become more apparent, environmental consciousness is growing across the world, forcing nations to take steps to mitigate the damage. China pledged to achieve air quality improvement goal to combat global environment issue, yet the spatial-temporal differentiation and its driving factors of environment-meteorology-economic index for air quality are not fully analysed. To promote regional collaborative control of air pollution and achieve sustainable urban development, spatial and temporal different and its driving factors of air quality in Shandong Province during 2013-2020. Results revealed that concentrations of sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5), particulate matter 10 (PM10), and carbon monoxide (CO-95per) exhibited decreasing trend (SO2 concentrations decreasing 84 % and CO-95per concentrations decreasing 90 %). Air quality was improved from inland areas to coastal areas. Pollutant indicators of SO2, NO2, PM10, PM2.5, and CO-95per demonstrated significant positive correlation (P < 0.05). Air temperature and precipitation are significantly negatively correlated with concentrations of SO2, NO2, PM10, PM2.5, and CO-95per but significantly positively correlated with ozone (O3-8 h). SO2, NO2, PM2.5, PM10, CO-95per, and proportion of days with heavy pollution are strongly positively correlated with proportion of secondary industry but strongly negatively correlated with proportion of tertiary industry and volume of household waste. Except for O3-8 h, pollutant index of Provincial Capital Economic Circle (PCEC) and Southern Shandong Economic Circle (SSEC) has significant negative correlation (P < 0.05) with regional gross domestic product and investment in environmental protection; however, investment in environmental protection of Eastern Shandong Economic Circle (ESEC) has no significant correlation with air pollution index. There was significant negative correlation between vegetable sowing area and SSEC pollutant index. The relationship between pollution emission and investment in environmental protection has shifted from high pollution-low investment to low pollution-low investment in PCEC, ESEC and SSEC, and the inflection point was in 2020 for PCEC, 2019 for ESEC, and 2020 for SSEC. Those results provide empirical evidence and theoretical support for the improvement of regional air quality, aiming to achieve high-quality development. According to these findings, it has been found that meteorological elements, pollutant emission, socio-economic factors and agricultural data affect air quality. Those results could provide meaningful and significant supporting for synergistic regulation of diverse pollutants.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    土壤有机碳(SOC)是全球碳循环的重要组成部分,在生态系统健康和碳平衡中发挥着重要作用。在这项研究中,我们重点评估了山东省基于土地利用类型的地表SOC含量,探讨了其空间分布格局及影响因素。机器学习方法,包括随机森林(RF),极端梯度提升(XGBoost),和支持向量机(SVM)被用来估计山东省的表面SOC含量使用不同的数据源,如样本数据,遥感数据,社会经济数据,土壤质地数据,地形数据,和气象数据。结果表明,山东省SOC含量为8.78g/kg,在不同地区表现出显著的差异。比较模型误差和相关系数,XGBoost模型显示出最高的预测精度,确定系数(R²)为0.7548,均方根误差(RMSE)为7.6792,相对百分比差异(RPD)为1.1311。高程和粘土在澄清山东省地表SOC含量方面表现出最高的解释力,贡献21.74%和13.47%,分别。空间分布分析表明,与耕地覆盖的平原和沿海地区相比,森林覆盖的山区的SOC含量更高。总之,这些发现为土地利用规划和SOC保护提供了宝贵的科学见解。
    Soil organic carbon (SOC) is a crucial component of the global carbon cycle, playing a significant role in ecosystem health and carbon balance. In this study, we focused on assessing the surface SOC content in Shandong Province based on land use types, and explored its spatial distribution pattern and influencing factors. Machine learning methods including random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and support vector machine (SVM) were employed to estimate the surface SOC content in Shandong Province using diverse data sources like sample data, remote sensing data, socio-economic data, soil texture data, topographic data, and meteorological data. The results revealed that the SOC content in Shandong Province was 8.78 g/kg, exhibiting significant variation across different regions. Comparing the model error and correlation coefficient, the XGBoost model showed the highest prediction accuracy, with a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.7548, root mean square error (RMSE) of 7.6792, and relative percentage difference (RPD) of 1.1311. Elevation and Clay exhibited the highest explanatory power in clarifying the surface SOC content in Shandong Province, contributing 21.74% and 13.47%, respectively. The spatial distribution analysis revealed that SOC content was higher in forest-covered mountainous regions compared to cropland-covered plains and coastal areas. In conclusion, these findings offer valuable scientific insights for land use planning and SOC conservation.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    虫媒病毒一直是重要的公共卫生问题。宏基因组监测扩大了新的数量,通常未分类的虫媒病毒,尤其是蚊子传播和蚊子特异性病毒。本报告首次描述了一种新型单链RNA病毒,王和病毒,从2022年在山东省收集的蚊子中鉴定。在这项研究中,共收集了4,795只蚊子,然后根据位置和种类分为105个游泳池。进行QRT-PCR和巢式PCR以确认Wang和病毒的存在,并进一步分析了其基因组特征和系统发育关系。我们的结果显示,在105个蚊子池中的9个中检测到了王和病毒,导致最低感染率(MIR)为0.19%(9/4,795)。从旺和病毒阳性库中获得了一个完整的基因组序列和三个病毒部分序列。成对距离分析表明这些扩增的序列共享高核苷酸同一性。系统发育分析表明,王和病毒与贵阳索林样病毒3型病毒关系最密切,属于索林病毒科。进一步分析表明,王和病毒是一种新的,未分类的病毒科成员。
    Arboviruses have always been a significant public health concern. Metagenomic surveillance has expanded the number of novel, often unclassified arboviruses, especially mosquito-borne and mosquito-specific viruses. This report presents the first description of a novel single-stranded RNA virus, Wanghe virus, identified from mosquitoes that were collected in Shandong Province in 2022. In this study, a total of 4,795 mosquitoes were collected and then divided into 105 pools according to location and species. QRT-PCR and nested PCR were performed to confirm the presence of Wanghe virus, and its genomic features and phylogenetic relationships were further analyzed. Our results revealed that Wanghe virus was detected in 9 out of the 105 mosquito pools, resulting in a minimum infection rate (MIR) of 0.19 % (9/4,795). One complete genome sequence and three viral partial sequences were obtained from the Wanghe virus-positive pools. Pairwise distance analysis indicated that these amplified sequences shared high nucleotide identity. Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated that Wanghe virus is most closely related to Guiyang Solinvi-like virus 3, which belongs to Solinviviridae. Further analyses indicated that Wanghe virus is a new, unclassified member of Solinviviridae.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    干旱和热浪表现出协同效应,是世界上最昂贵的灾害之一。探讨山东省近20年来干旱热浪综合脆弱性的时空差异及形成机制,具有三维暴露的漏洞范围图(VSD)模型,灵敏度,和适应性-被构造为评估和比较高温和干旱事件的综合脆弱性,考虑到经济和社会条件。结果表明:(1)在过去的20年里,山东省热浪和干旱增加。高温事件在西部明显增多,在东部沿海明显减少,干旱变化的特点是南部增加,北部减少。(2)山东省夏季干旱和热浪联合暴露呈显著上升趋势(P<0.05),速率约为0.072/10a;联合敏感性显著下降(P<0.05),速率约为0.137/10a,综合适应性继续以约0.481/10a的速度增加。(3)山东省西部内陆地区夏季干旱和热浪的综合脆弱性较高,并向东南沿海逐渐降低。总体下降趋势不显著,下降约0.126/10a,下降速度从西北向东南下降,其中莱芜,烟台,济南,与淄博市呈显著下降趋势(P<0.05)。尽管山东省的复合脆弱性下降不明显,干旱和热浪联合事件的频率增加了,未来合并的脆弱性将会增加。
    Droughts and heat waves exhibit synergistic effects and are among the world\'s most costly disasters. To explore the spatiotemporal differences and formation mechanisms of the combined vulnerability to droughts and heat waves in Shandong Province over the past 20 years, a vulnerability scoping diagram (VSD) model with three dimensions-exposure, sensitivity, and adaptability-was constructed to assess and compare the combined vulnerability to high-temperature and drought events, considering economic and social conditions. The results showed that (1) over the past 20 years, heat waves and droughts have increased in Shandong Province. The number of high-temperature events significantly increased in the west and decreased along the eastern coast, and drought change was characterized by an increase in the south and a decrease in the north. (2) The combined exposure to summer droughts and heat waves in Shandong Province showed a significant increasing trend (P < 0.05) at a rate of approximately 0.072/10a; the combined sensitivity significantly decreased (P < 0.05) at a rate of approximately 0.137/10a, and the combined adaptability continued to increase at a rate of approximately 0.481/10a. (3) The combined vulnerability to summer droughts and heat waves in the western inland area of Shandong Province was high and gradually decreased toward the southeastern coast. The overall decrease trend was nonsignificant with a decrease of approximately 0.126/10a, and the decline rate decreased from northwest to southeast, in which Laiwu, Yantai, Jinan, and Zibo cities exhibited a significant decreasing trend (P < 0.05). Although the compound vulnerability of Shandong Province has decreased insignificantly, the frequency of combined drought and heat wave events has increased, and the combined vulnerability will increase in the future.
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  • 文章类型: English Abstract
    本研究应用PM2.5遥感数据,利用Theil-Sen中值趋势分析和Mann-Kendall显著性检验对2000-2021年山东省PM2.5的时空变化进行了分析。基于地理探测器数据,在省-市-县一级检测了各影响因素对山东省PM2.5浓度空间分异的影响力。结果表明:①在时间尺度上,2000年至2021年,山东省的平均ρ(PM2.5)范围为38.15至88.63μg·m-3,略高于环境空气质量标准中可吸入颗粒物的二级限值(35μg·m-3)。在年际尺度上,2013年是ρ(PM2.5)变化的高峰年,为83.36μg·m-3,山东省PM2.5浓度变化趋势分为持续升高和快速降低两个阶段。在季节性尺度上,PM2.5浓度呈现“夏低冬高、春秋适中”的分布特征和先降低后升高的U型变化规律。②在空间尺度上,山东省PM2.5浓度呈现西高东低的空间分布格局。PM2.5浓度较高的地区分布在山东省西部地区,而PM2.5浓度较低的地区分布在半岛东部地区。PM2.5浓度变化趋势的空间变异表现出显著的空间异质性,极显著的下降主要分布在东部半岛地区。③因子检测结果表明,气候因子是影响山东省PM2.5浓度空间分异的重要因子。平均气温对山东省PM2.5浓度空间分异的影响最大,q值为0.512。省-市-县多尺度检测结果表明,影响PM2.5浓度空间分异的影响因素及其影响力在不同空间尺度上存在差异。在省级范围内,平均温度,日照时间,和坡度是影响PM2.5浓度空间分异的主要因素。在城市层面,降水,高程,相对湿度是影响PM2.5空间分异的主要因素。在县一级,降水,平均温度,和日照时数是影响PM2.5浓度空间变化的主要因素。
    PM2.5 remote sensing data was applied in this study, and Theil-Sen Median trend analysis and the Mann-Kendall significance test were utilized to analyze the temporal and spatial variation in PM2.5 in the Shandong Province from 2000 to 2021. The influencing power of the influencing factors on the spatial differentiation of PM2.5 concentration in the Shandong Province was detected at the provincial-city-county levels based on Geo-detector data. The results showed that:① on the temporal scale, the mean ρ(PM2.5)in the Shandong Province ranged from 38.15 to 88.63 μg·m-3 from 2000 to 2021, which was slightly higher than the secondary limit of inhalable particulate matter (35 μg·m-3) in the Ambient Air Quality Standards. On the interannual scale, 2013 was the peak year for the variation in ρ(PM2.5) with a value of 83.36 μg·m-3, according to which the trend of PM2.5 concentrations in the Shandong Province was divided into two phases:a continuous increase and a rapid decrease. On the seasonal scale, PM2.5 concentration presented the distribution characteristics of \"low in summer and high in winter and moderate in spring and autumn\" and the U-shaped change rule of first decreasing and then increasing. ② On the spatial scale, the PM2.5 concentration in the Shandong Province presented a spatial distribution pattern of \"high in the west and low in the east.\" The areas with high PM2.5 concentration were distributed in the western area of the Shandong Province, whereas the areas with low PM2.5 concentration were distributed in the eastern peninsula region. The spatial variation in the changing trend of PM2.5 concentration showed significant spatial heterogeneity, and the extremely significant decrease was mainly distributed in the eastern peninsula region. ③ The results of factor detection showed that climate factor was an important factor affecting the spatial differentiation of PM2.5 concentration in the Shandong Province. Mean temperature had the highest influence on the spatial differentiation of PM2.5 concentration in the Shandong Province, with a q value of 0.512. Provincial-city-county multi-scale detection results showed that the influencing factors affecting the spatial differentiation of PM2.5 concentration and their influencing power differed at different spatial scales. At the provincial scale, mean temperature, sunshine duration, and slope were the main factors affecting the spatial differentiation of PM2.5 concentration. At the city level, precipitation, elevation, and relative humidity were the main factors affecting the spatial differentiation of PM2.5. At the county level, precipitation, mean temperature, and sunshine duration were the main factors affecting the spatial variation in PM2.5 concentration.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    监测和预测区域地下水储量(GWS)波动是有效管理水资源的重要支持。因此,以山东省为例,重力恢复和气候实验(GRACE)和GRACE后续(GRACE-FO)的数据用于反演2003年1月至2022年12月的GWS波动以及水隙全球水文模型(WGHM),原位地下水量和水位数据。使用独立成分分析(ICA)分解时空特征,以及影响因素,如降水和人类活动,也进行了分析。为了预测GWS的短时间变化,支持向量机(SVM)与三种常用的长短期记忆方法(LSTM)结合使用,奇异谱分析(SSA),自回归移动平均模型(ARMA),作为比较。结果表明:(1)西部GWS的损失强度明显大于沿海地区。2003-2006年GWS急剧增加,2007-2014年GWS损失率为-5.80±2.28mm/a,2015-2022年GWS变化线性趋势为-5.39±3.65mm/a,可能主要受南水北调工程影响。GRACE与WGHM的相关系数为0.67,与原位地下水量和水位一致。(2)考虑移动平均线后的时间延迟,GWS与每月全球降水气候项目(GPCP)具有较高的正相关性。根据连续小波变换(CWT)方法具有相似的能量谱。此外,分析了影响GWS年度波动的因素,GWS与包括地下水开采消耗在内的原位数据之间的相关系数,农田灌溉量分别为0.80、0.71。(3)对于GWS预测,采用SVM方法进行分析,建立了三个训练样本,分别为180、204和228个月,拟合优度均高于0.97。相关系数分别为0.56、0.75、0.68;RMSE分别为5.26、4.42、5.65mm;NSE分别为0.28、0.43、0.36。SVM模型的短期预测性能优于其他方法。
    Monitoring and predicting the regional groundwater storage (GWS) fluctuation is an essential support for effectively managing water resources. Therefore, taking Shandong Province as an example, the data from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) is used to invert GWS fluctuation from January 2003 to December 2022 together with Watergap Global Hydrological Model (WGHM), in-situ groundwater volume and level data. The spatio-temporal characteristics are decomposed using Independent Components Analysis (ICA), and the impact factors, such as precipitation and human activities, which are also analyzed. To predict the short-time changes of GWS, the Support Vector Machines (SVM) is adopted together with three commonly used methods Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), Auto-Regressive Moving Average Model (ARMA), as the comparison. The results show that: (1) The loss intensity of western GWS is significantly greater than those in coastal areas. From 2003 to 2006, GWS increased sharply; during 2007 to 2014, there exists a loss rate - 5.80 ± 2.28 mm/a of GWS; the linear trend of GWS change is - 5.39 ± 3.65 mm/a from 2015 to 2022, may be mainly due to the effect of South-to-North Water Diversion Project. The correlation coefficient between GRACE and WGHM is 0.67, which is consistent with in-situ groundwater volume and level. (2) The GWS has higher positive correlation with monthly Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) considering time delay after moving average, which has the similar energy spectrum depending on Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) method. In addition, the influencing facotrs on annual GWS fluctuation are analyzed, the correlation coefficient between GWS and in-situ data including the consumption of groundwater mining, farmland irrigation is 0.80, 0.71, respectively. (3) For the GWS prediction, SVM method is adopted to analyze, three training samples with 180, 204 and 228 months are established with the goodness-of-fit all higher than 0.97. The correlation coefficients are 0.56, 0.75, 0.68; RMSE is 5.26, 4.42, 5.65 mm; NSE is 0.28, 0.43, 0.36, respectively. The performance of SVM model is better than the other methods for the short-term prediction.
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  • 文章类型: Multicenter Study
    了解山东省疑似肺结核患者结核分枝杆菌(MTB)的阳性率和耐药特征,中国人口第二大省。
    预期,多中心研究于2022年4月至2023年6月进行.使用核苷酸基质辅助激光解吸电离飞行时间质谱(核苷酸MALDI-TOFMS)鉴定病原体和耐药性。
    在本研究中纳入的940名疑似结核病患者中,发现552例感染MTB,总阳性率为58.72%。对任意抗结核药物耐药346例(62.68%),淄博(76.47%),聊城和威海(均为69.23%)排名前三位,结核病治疗史可能是相关因素。单一抗性是最常见的模式(33.53%),异烟肼最高,为12.43%,其次是利福平,占9.54%。对赋予耐药性的基因突变的进一步分析显示,在多种抗结核药物中发现了具有高异质耐药率的多种类型。
    在COVID-19大流行期间和之后,山东省发现了相对较高的MTB阳性率和耐药性,提示有必要加强对疑似结核病患者的物种和耐药性的快速识别,以指导更好的用药并最大程度地减少耐药性的发生。
    To investigate the positivity rates and drug resistance characteristics of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) among suspected tuberculosis (TB) patients in Shandong Province, the second-largest population province in China.
    A prospective, multi-center study was conducted from April 2022 to June 2023. Pathogen and drug resistance were identified using nucleotide matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry (nucleotide MALDI-TOF MS).
    Of 940 suspected TB patients included in this study, 552 cases were found to be infected with MTB giving an overall positivity rate of 58.72%. Total of 346 cases were resistant to arbitrary anti-TB drug (62.68%), with Zibo (76.47%), Liaocheng and Weihai (both 69.23%) ranking top three and TB treatment history might be a related factor. Monoresistance was the most common pattern (33.53%), with isoniazid the highest at 12.43%, followed by rifampicin at 9.54%. Further analysis of gene mutations conferring resistance revealed diverse types with high heteroresistance rate found in multiple anti-TB drugs.
    A relatively high rate of MTB positivity and drug resistance was found in Shandong Province during and after the COVID-19 pandemic, indicating the need for strengthening rapid identification of species and drug resistance among suspected TB patients to guide better medication and minimize the occurrence of drug resistance.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    作为我国东部沿海经济大省,理清近年来山东省区域发展的时空格局,对支撑区域高质量发展具有重要意义。小夜灯遥感数据可以在精细像素尺度上揭示社会经济活动的时空格局。我们基于每月的夜间光线遥感数据和社会统计数据,在三个地理区域的三个空间尺度上建立了夜间光线模式。采用趋势分析的方法,对山东省近10年来的不同市县,稳定性分析和相关性分析。结果表明:(1)夜间光照格局与建设用地空间格局基本一致。大多数城市的夜间光线强度,建成区呈增长趋势,而青岛和烟台的老城区则呈弱化趋势。(2)在地理单元尺度上,山东中南部的夜间总光照明显高于山东东部和西北部,而鲁西北的夜间光照增长率显著最高。在城市规模,聊城市夜间光照增长率最高。在县范围内,经济较好的县夜间光照增长率较低,而经济落后的县则更高。(3)夜间光照增长与国内生产总值(GDP)和人口增长显著相关,说明区域经济发展和人口增长是夜间光照变化的主要原因。
    As a major coastal economic province in the east of China, it is of great significance to clarify the temporal and spatial patterns of regional development in Shandong Province in recent years to support regional high-quality development. Nightlight remote sensing data can reveal the spatio-temporal patterns of social and economic activities on a fine pixel scale. We based the nighttime light patterns at three spatial scales in three geographical regions on monthly nighttime light remote sensing data and social statistics. Different cities and different counties in Shandong Province in the last 10 years were studied by using the methods of trend analysis, stability analysis and correlation analysis. The results show that: (1) The nighttime light pattern was generally consistent with the spatial pattern of construction land. The nighttime light intensity of most urban, built-up areas showed an increasing trend, while the old urban areas of Qingdao and Yantai showed a weakening trend. (2) At the geographical unit scale, the total nighttime light in south-central Shandong was significantly higher than that in eastern and northwest Shandong, while the nighttime light growth rate in northwest Shandong was significantly highest. At the urban scale, Liaocheng had the highest nighttime light growth rate. At the county scale, the nighttime light growth rate of counties with a better economy was lower, while that of counties with a backward economy was higher. (3) The nighttime light growth was significantly correlated with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and population growth, indicating that regional economic development and population growth were the main causes of nighttime light change.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:丙型肝炎威胁人类健康,给人类带来沉重的经济负担。山东省是我国人口第二大省,区域经济发展不平衡。因此,分析2004-2021年山东省丙肝发病趋势及地区差异。
    方法:采用拟合自回归综合移动平均模型(ARIMA)预测山东省2022-2030年丙型肝炎月发病率和年发病率,长短期记忆(LSTM)和ARIMA-LSTM组合模型。
    结果:从2004年到2021年,山东省每年新发丙型肝炎病例从635例增加到5834例,共61,707例。发病率从2004年的0.69/10万上升至2019年的6.40/10万,2020年和2021年略有下降。年平均发病率为3.47/10万。从区域分布来看,山东省丙肝发病率普遍西部高、东部低。预计2030年山东省丙肝发病率为9.21/10万。
    结论:2004-2019年山东省丙肝发病率呈上升趋势,2020年和2021年呈下降趋势。发病率存在明显的区域差异。预计2022年至2030年发病率呈上升趋势。要加强丙肝的防控,实现到2030年消灭病毒性肝炎的目标。
    BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C threatens human health and brings a heavy economic burden. Shandong Province is the second most populous province in China and has uneven regional economic development. Therefore, we analyzed the incidence rate trend and regional differences of hepatitis C in Shandong Province from 2004 to 2021.
    METHODS: The monthly and annual incidence rates of hepatitis C in Shandong Province from 2022 to 2030 were predicted by fitting Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (ARIMA), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and ARIMA-LSTM combined model.
    RESULTS: From 2004 to 2021, annual new cases of hepatitis C in Shandong Province increased from 635 to 5834, with a total of 61,707 cases. The incidence rate increased from 0.69/100 thousand in 2004 to 6.40/100 thousand in 2019, with a slight decrease in 2020 and 2021. The average annual incidence rate was 3.47/100 thousand. In terms of regional distribution, the hepatitis C incidence rate in Shandong Province was generally high in the west and low in the east. It is estimated that the hepatitis C incidence rate in Shandong Province will be 9.21 per 100 thousand in 2030.
    CONCLUSIONS: The hepatitis C incidence rate in Shandong Province showed an increasing trend from 2004 to 2019 and a decreasing trend in 2020 and 2021. Significant regional variations in incidence rate existed. An upward trend in incidence rate is predicted from 2022 to 2030. It is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control of hepatitis C to achieve the goal of eliminating viral hepatitis by 2030.
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