Abstract：
Droughts and heat waves exhibit synergistic effects and are among the world\'s most costly disasters. To explore the spatiotemporal differences and formation mechanisms of the combined vulnerability to droughts and heat waves in Shandong Province over the past 20 years, a vulnerability scoping diagram (VSD) model with three dimensions-exposure, sensitivity, and adaptability-was constructed to assess and compare the combined vulnerability to high-temperature and drought events, considering economic and social conditions. The results showed that (1) over the past 20 years, heat waves and droughts have increased in Shandong Province. The number of high-temperature events significantly increased in the west and decreased along the eastern coast, and drought change was characterized by an increase in the south and a decrease in the north. (2) The combined exposure to summer droughts and heat waves in Shandong Province showed a significant increasing trend (P < 0.05) at a rate of approximately 0.072/10a; the combined sensitivity significantly decreased (P < 0.05) at a rate of approximately 0.137/10a, and the combined adaptability continued to increase at a rate of approximately 0.481/10a. (3) The combined vulnerability to summer droughts and heat waves in the western inland area of Shandong Province was high and gradually decreased toward the southeastern coast. The overall decrease trend was nonsignificant with a decrease of approximately 0.126/10a, and the decline rate decreased from northwest to southeast, in which Laiwu, Yantai, Jinan, and Zibo cities exhibited a significant decreasing trend (P < 0.05). Although the compound vulnerability of Shandong Province has decreased insignificantly, the frequency of combined drought and heat wave events has increased, and the combined vulnerability will increase in the future.
摘要：
干旱和热浪表现出协同效应，是世界上最昂贵的灾害之一。探讨山东省近20年来干旱热浪综合脆弱性的时空差异及形成机制,具有三维暴露的漏洞范围图(VSD)模型，灵敏度,和适应性-被构造为评估和比较高温和干旱事件的综合脆弱性，考虑到经济和社会条件。结果表明:(1)在过去的20年里,山东省热浪和干旱增加。高温事件在西部明显增多,在东部沿海明显减少,干旱变化的特点是南部增加，北部减少。(2)山东省夏季干旱和热浪联合暴露呈显著上升趋势(P<0.05),速率约为0.072/10a;联合敏感性显著下降(P<0.05),速率约为0.137/10a,综合适应性继续以约0.481/10a的速度增加。（3）山东省西部内陆地区夏季干旱和热浪的综合脆弱性较高，并向东南沿海逐渐降低。总体下降趋势不显著，下降约0.126/10a，下降速度从西北向东南下降，其中莱芜，烟台,济南,与淄博市呈显著下降趋势(P<0.05)。尽管山东省的复合脆弱性下降不明显，干旱和热浪联合事件的频率增加了，未来合并的脆弱性将会增加。
