Predictor

预测器
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:手术切除是胃肠道(GI)癌症的主要治疗方法,但术后骨骼肌丢失(SML)很常见,并与不良预后相关。这项研究旨在确定肌肉变化的模式,检查其与生活质量(QoL)的关系,并探索前3个月SML的预测因子。
    方法:对2021年9月至2022年5月在中国新诊断为胃肠道癌并接受手术的患者进行了前瞻性队列研究。入院时评估骨骼肌质量(SMM)和QoL,7天,1个月,术后3个月.人口统计,临床资料,并收集生物标志物。使用多重插补来估算缺失的数据。使用生长混合物模型分析数据,双变量分析,和逻辑回归。
    结果:共有483名患者完成了基线评估。在242名完成肌肉评估的患者中,92%的人经历过SML。确定了三种不同的肌肉变化模式:57%的术前SMM正常,术后SML轻度,16%术前SMM较低,SML中度,27%的术前肿块正常,但术后SML严重。中度/重度SML与更多的术后并发症相关,健康状况较差,和更高的症状负担。独立预测因素包括高龄,术前肌肉减少症,晚期癌症阶段,预后营养指数低(PNI≤45)。使用估算值时,结果没有变化。
    结论:尽管SML很普遍,肌肉改变的模式在患者之间是异质的。高龄,术前肌肉减少症,晚期癌症阶段,与癌症相关的炎症是中度/重度SML的预测因子,强调早期发现和管理的必要性。
    BACKGROUND: Surgical resection is the primary treatment for gastrointestinal (GI) cancers, but postoperative skeletal muscle loss (SML) is common and linked to poor prognosis. This study aims to identify patterns of muscle change, examine its association with quality of life (QoL), and explore predictors of SML in the first 3 months.
    METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted on patients newly diagnosed with GI cancer and undergoing surgery in China between September 2021 and May 2022. Skeletal muscle mass (SMM) and QoL were assessed at admission, 7 days, 1 month, and 3 months post-surgery. Demographic, clinical data, and biomarkers were collected. Missing data were imputed using multiple imputation. Data were analyzed using growth mixture modelling, bivariate analyses, and logistic regression.
    RESULTS: A total of 483 patients completed baseline assessment. Of the 242 patients with complete muscle assessments, 92% experienced SML. Three distinct patterns of muscle change were identified: 57% had normal preoperative SMM with mild postoperative SML, 16% had low preoperative SMM with moderate SML, and 27% had normal preoperative mass but severe postoperative SML. Moderate/severe SML was associated with more postoperative complications, poorer health, and higher symptom burden. Independent predictors included advanced age, preoperative sarcopenia, advanced cancer stage, and low prognostic nutrition index (PNI ≤ 45). The results did not change when using imputed values.
    CONCLUSIONS: Although SML is prevalent, patterns of muscle change are heterogeneous among patients. Advanced age, preoperative sarcopenia, advanced cancer stage, and cancer-related inflammation are predictors for moderate/severe SML, highlighting the need for early detection and management.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    确定可能对某种治疗无反应的患者可以允许临床医生提供替代策略并避免对患者及其家人的沮丧和不切实际的期望。一项对145名接受视觉半球特异性刺激治疗的儿童的回顾性研究检查了具体的概况(阅读,写作,元声学学,记忆,call体功能)的非响应者,并确定了对干预反应的预测因子(阅读,读和写)通过线性回归模型。在48名参与者的子样本中研究了其他变量的影响,例如快速自动化命名(RAN)和视觉搜索。分析中考虑了与性别和阅读障碍亚型相关的亚组。结果强调了干预差异效应(IDE),而不依赖于均值和数学耦合效应的回归。阅读无反应者的特征似乎与轻度阅读和严重写作障碍的儿童相对应;阅读和写作的无反应者是call骨转移受损的人。对干预的总体反应的预测因素是测试前的阅读和写作分数;音素混合,视觉搜索的准确性和快速自动化命名的速度有助于解释响应方差。女性与女性的具体预测因子男性参与者和阅读障碍亚型被确定。
    Identifying the patients who are likely to be non-responders to a certain treatment may allow clinicians to provide alternative strategies and avoid frustration and unrealistic expectations for the patients and their families. A retrospective study on 145 children treated with visual hemisphere-specific stimulation examined the specific profiles (reading, writing, metaphonology, memory, callosal functions) of non-responders, and identified predictors of response to intervention (reading, reading and writing) through linear regression models. The effects of additional variables such as rapid automatized naming (RAN) and Visual Search were investigated in a subsample of 48 participants. Subgroups related to gender and dyslexia subtype were considered in the analyses. The results highlight an Intervention Differential Effect (IDE) not depending on regression to the mean and mathematical coupling effects. The characteristics of non-responders for reading seem to correspond children with mild reading and severe writing impairments; non-responders for reading and writing are those with impaired callosal transfer. Predictors of overall response to intervention were pre-test reading and writing scores; phoneme blending, accuracy in visual search and speed in rapid automatized naming contributed to explaining response variance. Specific predictors for female vs. male participants and dyslexia subtypes were identified.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:全身炎症反应指数(SIRI)对血栓切除术治疗的急性缺血性卒中(AIS)患者卒中相关性肺炎(SAP)风险的预测价值尚不清楚。本研究旨在探讨SIRI对AIS患者血栓切除术后SAP的预测价值。
    方法:我们纳入了2018年8月至2022年8月在我们研究所接受血栓切除术治疗的AIS患者。我们使用多变量逻辑回归构建预测模型,并进行受试者工作特征曲线分析以评估SIRI预测SAP的能力,并构建校准曲线以评估模型的预测准确性。我们使用决策曲线分析评估了列线图的临床应用价值。
    结果:我们在分析中纳入了84名合格的AIS患者,其中56例(66.7%)患有SAP。在单变量分析中,性别差异显著(p=0.035),美国国立卫生研究院入院时卒中量表评分≥20(p=0.019)和SIRI(p<0.001)。多因素Logistic分析结果显示,SAP的发病风险随SIRI值的增加而增加(OR=1.169,95%CI=1.049~1.344,p=0.014)。年龄≥60岁(OR=4.076,95%CI=1.251-14.841,p=0.024)也有统计学意义。SIRI的列线图显示,在接受血栓切除术治疗的AIS患者中,SAP的预测准确性较高(C指数值=0.774)。
    结论:SIRI是接受血栓切除术治疗的AIS患者SAP的独立预测因子。较高的SIRI值可以允许早期识别通过血栓切除术治疗的AIS患者的SAP高风险。
    BACKGROUND: The predictive value of systemic inflammatory response index (SIRI) for stroke-associated pneumonia (SAP) risk in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) treated by thrombectomy remains unclear. This study aimed to investigate the predictive value of SIRI for SAP in patients with AIS treated by thrombectomy.
    METHODS: We included AIS patients treated by thrombectomy between August 2018 and August 2022 at our institute. We used multivariate logistic regression to construct the prediction model and performed a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis to evaluate the ability of SIRI to predict SAP and constructed a calibration curve to evaluate the prediction accuracy of the model. We evaluated the clinical application value of the nomogram using decision curve analysis.
    RESULTS: We included 84 eligible patients with AIS in the analysis, among which 56 (66.7%) had SAP. In the univariate analysis, there were significant differences in sex (p = 0.035), National Institute of Health Stroke Scale score at admission ≥ 20 (p = 0.019) and SIRI (p < 0.001). The results of multivariable logistic analysis showed that the risk of SAP increased with the SIRI value (OR = 1.169, 95% CI = 1.049-1.344, p = 0.014). Age ≥ 60 (OR = 4.076, 95% CI = 1.251-14.841, p = 0.024) was also statistically significant. A nomogram with SIRI showed good prediction accuracy for SAP in AIS patients treated by thrombectomy (C-index value = 0.774).
    CONCLUSIONS: SIRI is an independent predictor for SAP in patients with AIS treated by thrombectomy. A high SIRI value may allow for the early identification of patients with AIS treated by thrombectomy at high risk for SAP.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:为了确定终止特立帕肽(TPTD)和阿仑膦酸钠(ALN)治疗的预测因素,来自随机数据,对涉及绝经后高骨折风险日本女性的对照试验(JOINT-05)进行了重新分析.
    方法:参与者接受序贯治疗,每周一次TPTD治疗72周,随后ALN治疗48周(TPTD-ALN组)或ALN单药治疗120周(ALN组)。背景数据包括合并症,骨折患病率,认知功能,生活质量,日常生活活动,骨代谢参数,并收集营养摄入量。终点是3种类型的停药,原因是:依从性差,不良事件(AE),或任何原因,包括与AE或不良合规性无关的原因。通过单一或多元回归分析评估停药的基线预测因子的赔率(OR)。
    结果:TPTD-ALN组共有234例(49.0%)患者和ALN组167例(34.2%)患者停药。在TPTD-ALN组中,较低的血清钙水平是依从性相关停药的重要预测因子.血清钙水平较低的患者血清25-羟基维生素D水平低于血清钙水平较高的患者。在ALN组中,认知功能低下与依从性相关的停药显著相关,较高的体重指数和酒精摄入量是AE相关停药的预测因素。停药的预测因素是药物特异性的。较低的血清钙水平和较差的认知功能是每周停止一次TPTD和ALN的预测因素,分别。
    结论:开始TPTD和ALN治疗时,仔细注意血清钙水平较低和认知功能较差的患者,分别,可能需要更好的治疗连续性。
    BACKGROUND: To identify predictors of discontinuing treatment with teriparatide (TPTD) and alendronate (ALN), data from a randomized, controlled trial (JOINT-05) involving postmenopausal Japanese women at high risk of fracture were re-analyzed.
    METHODS: Participants received sequential therapy with once-weekly TPTD for 72 weeks followed by ALN for 48 weeks (TPTD-ALN group) or monotherapy with ALN for 120 weeks (ALN group). Background data including comorbidities, fracture prevalence, cognitive function, quality of life, activities of daily living, bone metabolism parameters, and nutrient intake were collected. The endpoints were 3 types of discontinuations by the reason: a poor compliance, adverse events (AEs), or any reason including those unrelated to AEs or poor compliance. Odds ratios (ORs) of baseline predictors of discontinuation were evaluated by single or multiple regression analysis.
    RESULTS: A total of 234 (49.0%) patients in the TPTD-ALN group and 167 (34.2%) patients in the ALN group discontinued. In the TPTD-ALN group, a lower serum calcium level was a significant predictor of compliance-related discontinuation. Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels were lower in patients with lower serum calcium levels than with higher serum calcium levels. In the ALN group, poor cognitive function was significantly associated with compliance-related discontinuation, and higher body mass index and alcohol intake were predictors of AE-related discontinuation. Predictors of discontinuation were drug-specific. Lower serum calcium levels and poor cognitive function were predictors of discontinuing once-weekly TPTD and ALN, respectively.
    CONCLUSIONS: When starting TPTD and ALN treatment, careful attention to patients with lower serum calcium levels and poor cognitive function, respectively, may be needed for better treatment continuity.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    冠状动脉非靶病变的快速进展对于确定未来的心血管事件至关重要。预测非靶病变快速进展的临床因素尚不清楚。这项研究的目的是确定冠状动脉非靶病变快速进展和血运重建的临床预测因素。
    连续进行两次冠状动脉造影的冠心病患者被纳入研究。在两种程序中都识别并评估了所有冠状动脉非靶病变。采用多变量Cox回归分析探讨冠状动脉非靶病变快速进展或血运重建的临床危险因素。
    共纳入1255例患者和1670个病灶。在这群患者中,239(19%)进展迅速,186(14.8%)进行了血运重建。在病变级别,251例(15.0%)进展迅速,194例(11.6%)接受血运重建。进展迅速的患者,病变血运重建和心肌梗死的发生率明显较高。在多变量分析中,高血压(危险比[HR],0.76;95%置信区间[95%CI],0.58-1.00;p=0.049),ST段抬高型心肌梗死(STEMI)(HR,1.46;95%CI,1.03-2.07;p=0.035),糖化血红蛋白(HR,1.16;95%CI,1.01-1.33;p=0.039)和病变分类(B2/C与A/B1)(HR,1.73;95%CI,1.27-2.35;p=0.001)是与快速进展相关的显著因素。甘油三酯的水平(HR,1.10;95%CI,1.00-1.20;p=0.040)和病变分类(B2/C与A/B1)(HR,1.53;95%CI,1.09-2.14;p=0.014)是病变血运重建的预测因子。
    高血压,STEMI,糖化血红蛋白和病变分类可作为冠状动脉非靶病变快速进展的预测因子。甘油三酯水平和病变分类可以预测非靶病变的血运重建。为了预防未来的心血管事件,应更加重视这些因素的患者。
    UNASSIGNED: Rapid progression of coronary non-target lesions is essential for the determination of future cardiovascular events. Clinical factors that predict rapid progression of non-target lesions are unclear. The purpose of this study was to identify the clinical predictors of rapid progression and revascularization of coronary non-target lesions.
    UNASSIGNED: Consecutive patients with coronary heart disease who had undergone two serial coronary angiograms were enrolled. All coronary non-target lesions were identified and evaluated at both procedures. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was used to investigate the clinical risk factors associated with rapid progression or revascularization of coronary non-target lesions.
    UNASSIGNED: A total of 1255 patients and 1670 lesions were enrolled. In this cohort of patients, 239 (19%) had rapid progression and 186 (14.8%) underwent revascularization. At the lesion level, 251 (15.0%) had rapid progression and 194 (11.6%) underwent revascularization. The incidence of lesion revascularization and myocardial infarction was significantly higher in patients with rapid progression. In multivariable analyses, hypertension (hazard ratio [HR], 0.76; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.58-1.00; p = 0.049), ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) (HR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.03-2.07; p = 0.035), glycosylated hemoglobin (HR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.01-1.33; p = 0.039) and lesion classification (B2/C versus A/B1) (HR, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.27-2.35; p = 0.001) were significant factors associated with rapid progression. The level of triglycerides (HR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.00-1.20; p = 0.040) and lesion classification (B2/C versus A/B1) (HR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.09-2.14; p = 0.014) were predictors of lesion revascularization.
    UNASSIGNED: Hypertension, STEMI, glycosylated hemoglobin and lesion classification may be used as predictors of rapid progression of coronary non-target lesions. The level of triglyceride and lesion classification may predict the revascularization of non-target lesions. In order to prevent future cardiovascular events, increased attention should be paid to patients with these factors.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:抑郁症的残留症状是严重的健康问题。然而,由于疾病的高度异质性,进展过程很难预测。本研究旨在:(1)根据同质数据对残留症状的变化规律进行分类,(2)确定这些模式的潜在预测因素。
    方法:在本研究中,我们进行了数据驱动的潜在类别增长分析(LCGA),以确定残留症状变化的明显趋势,对于抑郁症患者,在基线和基线后1/3/6个月使用QIDS-SR16进行纵向定量。还鉴定了基线特征(例如临床特征和认知功能)与不同进展趋势之间的关联。
    结果:残留症状的变化趋势分为四类:“轻度残留症状下降(15.4%)”,“残留症状消失(39.3%)”,“稳定残留症状(6.3%)”和“严重残留症状下降(39.0%)”。我们观察到第二类患者比其他患者表现出更有利的康复效果。严重程度,复发,多药,症状的药物依从性与残留症状的持续时间密切相关。此外,临床特征包括睡眠障碍,抑郁情绪,食欲或体重的改变,和浓缩困难已被确定为回收过程中的重要因素。
    结论:我们的研究结果表明,抑郁症患者的某些临床特征与急性治疗后残留症状恢复不良有关。这一启示在有针对性地关注特定患者以及相应地制定残留症状的早期干预策略方面具有重要价值。
    BACKGROUND: Residual symptoms of depressive disorders are serious health problems. However, the progression process is hardly predictable due to high heterogeneity of the disease. This study aims to: (1) classify the patterns of changes in residual symptoms based on homogeneous data, and (2) identify potential predictors for these patterns.
    METHODS: In this study, we conducted a data-driven Latent Class Growth Analysis (LCGA) to identify distinct tendencies of changes in residual symptoms, which were longitudinally quantified using the QIDS-SR16 at baseline and 1/3/6 months post-baseline for depressed patients. The association between baseline characteristics (e.g. clinical features and cognitive functions) and different progression tendencies were also identified.
    RESULTS: The tendency of changes in residual symptoms was categorized into four classes: \"light residual symptom decline (15.4%)\", \"residual symptom disappears (39.3%)\", \"steady residual symptom (6.3%)\" and \"severe residual symptom decline (39.0%)\". We observed that the second class displayed more favorable recuperation outcomes than the rest of patients. The severity, recurrence, polypharmacy, and medication adherence of symptoms are intricately linked to the duration of residual symptoms\' persistence. Additionally, clinical characteristics including sleep disturbances, depressive moods, alterations in appetite or weight, and difficulties with concentration have been identified as significant factors in the recovery process.
    CONCLUSIONS: Our research findings indicate that certain clinical characteristics in patients with depressive disorders are associated with poor recovery from residual symptoms following acute treatment. This revelation holds significant value in the targeted attention to specific patients and the development of early intervention strategies for residual symptoms accordingly.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:COVID-19疾病的严重程度从轻度到危及生命的病例不等,需要重症监护。快速预测COVID-19患者的疾病严重程度和对重症监护支持的需求仍然至关重要,不仅是为了当前的管理,也是为了未来大流行的准备。本研究旨在评估血液学参数作为COVID-19患者重症监护病房(ICU)入院和生存的预测因子,提供适用于各种传染病的见解。
    方法:在RajaPerempuanZainabII医院进行了一项病例对照研究,吉兰丹的一家三级转诊医院,马来西亚,从2020年3月到2021年8月。人口统计,临床,和实验室数据从患者的医疗记录中检索。统计分析,包括卡方(χ2)检验,独立t检验,以及简单和多重逻辑回归,用于分析数据。进行受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线分析以评估预测因子的准确性。
    结果:中位年龄为51岁,女性占56.7%(n=148),男性占43.3%(n=113)。共有88.5%的病人入住非重症监护病房,死亡率为5.7%。ICU入院和非入院患者之间的血液学参数分布存在显着差异。中性粒细胞(OR:23.96,95%CI:7.296-78.675)和白细胞(WBC)计数(OR:36.677,95%CI:2.086-644.889)是ICU入院和生存的最重要预测因子。分别。
    结论:白细胞和中性粒细胞计数对ICU入院具有较高的预测价值,而WBC,中性粒细胞,淋巴细胞,未成熟粒细胞(IG)计数是COVID-19患者生存状态的重要预测因子。这些发现强调了血液学标志物在管理严重呼吸道感染和改善重症监护分诊方面的持续相关性。对当前和未来的医疗保健挑战产生影响。
    BACKGROUND: COVID-19 illness severity ranges from mild- to life-threatening cases necessitating critical care. Rapid prediction of disease severity and the need for critical care support in COVID-19 patients remain essential, not only for current management but also for preparedness in future pandemics. This study aimed to assess hematological parameters as predictors of intensive care unit (ICU) admission and survival in COVID-19 patients, providing insights applicable to a broad range of infectious diseases.
    METHODS: A case-control study was conducted at Hospital Raja Perempuan Zainab II, a tertiary referral hospital in Kelantan, Malaysia, from March 2020 to August 2021. Demographics, clinical, and laboratory data were retrieved from patients\' medical records. Statistical analyses, including the Chi-square (χ2) test, independent t-tests, and simple and multiple logistic regressions, were used to analyze the data. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was conducted to assess the accuracy of the predictors.
    RESULTS: The median age was 51 years, with females comprising 56.7% (n=148) and males 43.3% (n=113). A total of 88.5% of patients were admitted to non-ICU wards, with a mortality rate of 5.7%. Significant differences were observed in the distribution of hematological parameters between ICU-admitted and non-admitted patients. Neutrophil (OR: 23.96, 95% CI: 7.296-78.675) and white blood cell (WBC) count (OR: 36.677, 95% CI: 2.086-644.889) were the most significant predictors for ICU admission and survival, respectively.
    CONCLUSIONS: WBC and neutrophil counts exhibited high predictive value for ICU admission, while WBC, neutrophil, lymphocyte, and immature granulocyte (IG) counts were significant predictors of survival status among COVID-19 patients. These findings underscore the continued relevance of hematological markers in managing severe respiratory infections and improving critical care triage, with implications for current and future healthcare challenges.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:近年来外科技术的显著进步已经将临床重点从仅仅降低死亡率转移到提高术后恢复质量。患者的住院时间是评估术后恢复和手术结果的重要指标。这项研究旨在确定接受Ebstein异常(EA)矫正手术的儿童住院时间的预测因素。
    方法:我们对2009年1月至2021年11月在阜外医院接受矫正手术的儿童(18岁以下)进行了回顾性队列研究。主要结果是出院时间(THD)。Cox比例风险模型用于确定THD的预测因子。在时间到事件分析的背景下,出院被认为是一个事件.如果死亡发生在出院前,它被定义为扩展的THD,输入为100天(超过观察到的最长THD),并被视为非事件。
    结果:本研究共纳入270名儿童,其中三人在医院死亡。在Cox比例风险分析之后,确定了THD的六个预测因子。风险比和相应的95%置信区间如下:年龄,1.030(1.005,1.055);C/R>0.65,0.507(0.364,0.707);CarpentierC型或D型,0.578(0.429,0.779);CPB时间,0.995(0.991,0.998);地塞米松,1.373(1.051,1.795);输血,0.680(0.529,0.875)。根据THD的四分位数将儿童分为三组。与≤6天组的儿童相比,≥11日组的不良结局发生率较高.此外,机械通气的持续时间和ICU住院时间,以及医院费用,明显高于该组。
    结论:我们确定了接受EA矫正手术的儿童THD的6个预测因子。临床医生可以利用这些变量来优化围手术期管理策略,减少不良并发症,改善术后恢复,减少不必要的医疗费用。
    BACKGROUND: The remarkable advancements in surgical techniques over recent years have shifted the clinical focus from merely reducing mortality to enhancing the quality of postoperative recovery. The duration of a patient\'s hospital stay serves as a crucial indicator in evaluating postoperative recovery and surgical outcomes. This study aims to identify predictors of the length of hospital stay for children who have undergone corrective surgery for Ebstein Anomaly (EA).
    METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study on children (under 18 years of age) diagnosed with EA who were admitted for corrective surgery between January 2009 and November 2021 at Fuwai Hospital. The primary outcome was the Time to Hospital Discharge (THD). Cox proportional hazard models were utilized to identify predictors of THD. In the context of time-to-event analysis, discharge was considered an event. In cases where death occurred before discharge, it was defined as an extended THD, input as 100 days (exceeding the longest observed THD), and considered as a non-event.
    RESULTS: A total of 270 children were included in this study, out of which three died in the hospital. Following the Cox proportional hazard analysis, six predictors of THD were identified. The hazard ratios and corresponding 95% confidence intervals were as follows: age, 1.030(1.005,1.055); C/R > 0.65, 0.507(0.364,0.707); Carpentier type C or D, 0.578(0.429,0.779); CPB time, 0.995(0.991,0.998); dexamethasone, 1.373(1.051,1.795); and transfusion, 0.680(0.529,0.875). The children were categorized into three groups based on the quartile of THD. Compared to children in the ≤ 6 days group, those in the ≥ 11 days group were associated with a higher incidence of adverse outcomes. Additionally, the duration of mechanical ventilation and ICU stay, as well as hospital costs, were significantly higher in this group.
    CONCLUSIONS: We identified six predictors of THD for children undergoing corrective surgery for EA. Clinicians can utilize these variables to optimize perioperative management strategies, reduce adverse complications, improve postoperative recovery, and reduce unnecessary medical expenses.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:我们调查了患病率,临床特征,射血分数(HFimpEF)改善的心力衰竭(HF)患者的预后。
    结果:我们使用了来自BIOSTAT-CHF的数据,包括基线时左心室射血分数(LVEF)≤40%、在9个月时重新评估LVEF的患者。HFimpEF定义为在9个月时LVEF>40%且LVEF比基线增加≥10%。我们在ASIAN-HF注册中验证了研究结果。主要结局是HF再住院时间或全因死亡率的复合结果。在生物统计CHF中,大约20%的患者出现HFimpEF,与持续心力衰竭且射血分数(HFrEF)降低的患者相比,这与主要事件发生率较低的全因死亡率(风险比[HR]0.52,95%置信区间[CI]0.28~0.97,p=0.040)和复合终点(HR0.46,95%CI0.30~0.70,p<0.001)相关.ASIAN-HF的研究结果相似(HR0.40,95%CI0.18-0.89,p=0.024,HR0.29,95%CI0.17-0.48,p<0.001)。在BIOSTAT-CHF和ASIAN-HF中,HFimpEF的五个独立的常见预测因子是女性,没有缺血性心脏病,更高的LVEF,基线时左心室舒张末期和收缩末期直径较小。仅结合五个预测因子的预测模型(没有缺血性心脏病和左束支传导阻滞,左心室收缩末期和左心房直径较小,BIOSTAT-CHF中HFimpEF的血小板计数较高)在ASIAN-HF中的曲线下面积为0.772和0.688(由于左心房直径和血小板计数缺失)。
    结论:大约20-30%的HFrEF患者在1年内改善到HFimpEF,具有更好的临床结局。此外,具有临床预测因子的预测模型可以更准确地预测HFrEF患者的HFimpEF.
    OBJECTIVE: We investigated the prevalence, clinical characteristics, and prognosis of patients with heart failure (HF) with improved ejection fraction (HFimpEF).
    RESULTS: We used data from BIOSTAT-CHF including patients with a left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≤40% at baseline who had LVEF re-assessed at 9 months. HFimpEF was defined as a LVEF >40% and a LVEF ≥10% increase from baseline at 9 months. We validated findings in the ASIAN-HF registry. The primary outcome was a composite of time to HF rehospitalization or all-cause mortality. In BIOSTAT-CHF, about 20% of patients developed HFimpEF, that was associated with a lower primary event rate of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 0.52, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.28-0.97, p = 0.040) and the composite endpoint (HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.30-0.70, p < 0.001) compared with patients who remained in persistent HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). The findings were similar in the ASIAN-HF (HR 0.40, 95% CI 0.18-0.89, p = 0.024, and HR 0.29, 95% CI 0.17-0.48, p < 0.001). Five independently common predictors for HFimpEF in both BIOSTAT-CHF and ASIAN-HF were female sex, absence of ischaemic heart disease, higher LVEF, smaller left ventricular end-diastolic and end-systolic diameter at baseline. A predictive model combining only five predictors (absence of ischaemic heart disease and left bundle branch block, smaller left ventricular end-systolic and left atrial diameter, and higher platelet count) for HFimpEF in the BIOSTAT-CHF achieved an area under the curve of 0.772 and 0.688 in the ASIAN-HF (due to missing left atrial diameter and platelet count).
    CONCLUSIONS: Approximately 20-30% of patients with HFrEF improved to HFimpEF within 1 year with better clinical outcomes. In addition, the predictive model with clinical predictors could more accurately predict HFimpEF in patients with HFrEF.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    随着人口老龄化,越来越多的≥90岁的患者正在接受手术。我们回顾性研究了影响90岁以上接受紧急腹部手术的患者发病率和院内死亡率的因素。
    本研究纳入了2011年至2022年在我院接受手术的≥90岁患者的紧急腹部手术46例。对影响发病率和住院死亡率的因素进行统计分析。计算了死亡率和发病率(POSSUM)预测发病率和朴茨茅斯-POSSUM(P-POSSUM)预测死亡率的生理和手术严重程度评分。
    术后并发症发生30例(65.2%),死亡5例(10.8%)。影响发病率的因素包括美国麻醉医师协会身体状况评分,手术时间和失血,和手术严重程度评分。多变量分析确定了男性,手术严重程度评分,和住院时间长短是影响发病率的因素。东部肿瘤协作组的表现状况和生理评分被确定为影响住院死亡率的因素,在多变量分析中仅确定了生理评分。POSSUM预测发病率的受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线下面积为0.796,P-POSSUM预测死亡率的ROC曲线下面积为0.805,两者均中度准确。
    对≥90岁的患者进行紧急腹部手术的风险可能在一定程度上是可预测的,根据这些数据,我们能够为患者和家属提供令人信服的解释。
    UNASSIGNED: With the aging of the population, more and more patients ≥90 years old are undergoing surgery. We retrospectively examined factors affecting morbidity and in-hospital mortality among patients ≥90 years old who underwent emergency abdominal operations.
    UNASSIGNED: Forty-six cases of emergency abdominal surgery for patients ≥90 years old who underwent surgery at our hospital between 2011 and 2022 were included in this study. Factors affecting morbidity and in-hospital mortality were analyzed statistically. Physiological and operative severity score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity (POSSUM)-predicted morbidity and Portsmouth-POSSUM (P-POSSUM)-predicted mortality were calculated.
    UNASSIGNED: Postoperative complications occurred in 30 patients (65.2 %) and 5 patients (10.8 %) died in the hospital. Factors affecting morbidity included American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status score, operative time and blood loss, and operative severity score. Multivariate analysis identified male sex, operative severity score, and length of hospital stay as factors affecting morbidity. Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status and physiological score were identified as factors influencing mortality in hospital, and only physiological score was identified in the multivariate analysis. Area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for POSSUM-predicted morbidity was 0.796 and area under the ROC curve for P-POSSUM-predicted mortality was 0.805, both of which were moderately accurate.
    UNASSIGNED: Risk of emergency abdominal surgery in patients ≥90 years old may be predictable to some extent, and we are able to provide convincing explanations to patients and families based on these data.
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