Forecasting

预测
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:COVID-19大流行突显了强大的医疗保健能力规划和为新出现的危机做好准备的至关重要性。然而,随着时间的推移,医疗保健系统还必须适应疾病患病率和人口组成的更渐进的时间变化。为了支持积极的医疗保健规划,统计容量预测模型可以为医疗保健规划者提供有价值的信息。这个系统的文献回顾和证据图旨在识别和描述使用统计预测模型来估计医院环境中医疗保健能力需求的研究。
    方法:在MEDLINE和Embase数据库中确定了研究,并在定义和提取以下类别的项目之前筛选了相关性:预测方法,衡量能力,预测范围,医疗保健设置,目标诊断,验证方法,和执行。
    结果:选择了84项研究,所有这些都集中在各种能力成果上,包括医院病床/病人的数量,人员配备,和逗留时间的长短。选定的研究采用了分为六个项目的不同分析模型;离散事件模拟(N=13,15%),广义线性模型(N=21,25%),率倍增(N=15,18%),隔室模型(N=14,17%),时间序列分析(N=22,26%),和机器学习不可分类(N=12,14%)。该综述进一步提供了以传染病(N=24,29%)和癌症(N=12,14%)为主的疾病领域的见解,尽管有几项研究预测了总体上的医疗保健能力需求(N=24,29%)。只有大约一半的模型使用任一时间验证进行了验证(N=39,46%),交叉验证(N=2,2%)或/和地理验证(N=4,5%)。
    结论:预测模型的适用性可以作为参与设计未来医疗保健能力估计的医疗保健利益相关者的资源。所使用的算法缺乏常规性能验证是令人担忧的。关于容量规划模型的实施和后续验证的信息很少。
    BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the critical importance of robust healthcare capacity planning and preparedness for emerging crises. However, healthcare systems must also adapt to more gradual temporal changes in disease prevalence and demographic composition over time. To support proactive healthcare planning, statistical capacity forecasting models can provide valuable information to healthcare planners. This systematic literature review and evidence mapping aims to identify and describe studies that have used statistical forecasting models to estimate healthcare capacity needs within hospital settings.
    METHODS: Studies were identified in the databases MEDLINE and Embase and screened for relevance before items were defined and extracted within the following categories: forecast methodology, measure of capacity, forecast horizon, healthcare setting, target diagnosis, validation methods, and implementation.
    RESULTS: 84 studies were selected, all focusing on various capacity outcomes, including number of hospital beds/ patients, staffing, and length of stay. The selected studies employed different analytical models grouped in six items; discrete event simulation (N = 13, 15 %), generalized linear models (N = 21, 25 %), rate multiplication (N = 15, 18 %), compartmental models (N = 14, 17 %), time series analysis (N = 22, 26 %), and machine learning not otherwise categorizable (N = 12, 14 %). The review further provides insights into disease areas with infectious diseases (N = 24, 29 %) and cancer (N = 12, 14 %) being predominant, though several studies forecasted healthcare capacity needs in general (N = 24, 29 %). Only about half of the models were validated using either temporal validation (N = 39, 46 %), cross-validation (N = 2, 2 %) or/and geographical validation (N = 4, 5 %).
    CONCLUSIONS: The forecasting models\' applicability can serve as a resource for healthcare stakeholders involved in designing future healthcare capacity estimation. The lack of routine performance validation of the used algorithms is concerning. There is very little information on implementation and follow-up validation of capacity planning models.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:在温带世界中,莱姆病(LD)是影响人类的最常见的媒介传播疾病。在北美,LD的监视和研究显示,宿主的领土不断扩大,伴随着人类疾病发病率增加的细菌和媒介。为了更好地了解导致疾病传播的因素,预测模型可以使用当前和历史数据来预测人群中跨时间和空间的疾病发生。已经使用了各种预测方法,包括评估预测准确性和/或性能的方法,以及LD风险预测研究中的一系列预测因子。通过这次范围审查,我们的目标是记录不同的建模方法,包括预测和/或预测方法的类型,评估模型性能的预测因子和方法(例如,准确性)。
    方法:本范围审查将遵循系统审查的首选报告项目和范围审查指南的Meta分析扩展。电子数据库将通过关键词和主题词进行搜索(例如,医学主题标题术语)。搜索将在以下数据库中执行:PubMed/MEDLINE,EMBASE,CAB文摘,全球卫生和SCOPUS。以英语或法语报道的研究将通过空间预测和时间预测方法调查人类LD的风险,并进行筛选。资格标准将应用于文章列表,以确定要保留哪些文章。两名审稿人将筛选标题和摘要,然后是文章内容的全文筛选。数据将被提取并绘制成标准形式,合成和解释。
    背景:此范围界定审查基于已发表的文献,不需要伦理批准。研究结果将在同行评审的期刊上发表,并在科学会议上发表。
    BACKGROUND: In the temperate world, Lyme disease (LD) is the most common vector-borne disease affecting humans. In North America, LD surveillance and research have revealed an increasing territorial expansion of hosts, bacteria and vectors that has accompanied an increasing incidence of the disease in humans. To better understand the factors driving disease spread, predictive models can use current and historical data to predict disease occurrence in populations across time and space. Various prediction methods have been used, including approaches to evaluate prediction accuracy and/or performance and a range of predictors in LD risk prediction research. With this scoping review, we aim to document the different modelling approaches including types of forecasting and/or prediction methods, predictors and approaches to evaluating model performance (eg, accuracy).
    METHODS: This scoping review will follow the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Extension for Scoping Review guidelines. Electronic databases will be searched via keywords and subject headings (eg, Medical Subject Heading terms). The search will be performed in the following databases: PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, CAB Abstracts, Global Health and SCOPUS. Studies reported in English or French investigating the risk of LD in humans through spatial prediction and temporal forecasting methodologies will be identified and screened. Eligibility criteria will be applied to the list of articles to identify which to retain. Two reviewers will screen titles and abstracts, followed by a full-text screening of the articles\' content. Data will be extracted and charted into a standard form, synthesised and interpreted.
    BACKGROUND: This scoping review is based on published literature and does not require ethics approval. Findings will be published in peer-reviewed journals and presented at scientific conferences.
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  • 文章类型: Systematic Review
    人工智能(AI)是计算机机器显示人类能力的能力,例如推理,学习,规划,和创造力。这种处理技术接收的数据(已经准备或收集),处理它们,使用模型和算法,并回答有关预测和决策的问题。人工智能系统还能够通过分析以前行为的影响来适应自己的行为,然后自主工作。人工智能已经出现在我们的生活中,即使它经常被忽视(联网购物,家庭自动化,车辆)。即使在医疗领域,人工智能可用于分析大量医疗数据,发现匹配和模式,以改善诊断和预防。在法医学中,人工智能的应用越来越多,越来越有价值。
    进行了系统评价,选择最广泛使用的电子数据库之一(PubMed)中的文章。这项研究是使用关键词“AI取证”和“机器学习取证”进行的。研究过程包括从1990年至今发表的约2000篇文章。
    我们专注于最常见的使用领域,然后确定和分析了6个宏观主题。具体来说,文章分析了人工智能在法医病理学中的应用(主要领域),毒理学,放射学,个人身份,法医人类学,和法医精神病学.
    该研究的目的是评估AI在法医学中每个使用领域的当前应用,试图掌握未来和更多可用的应用程序,并强调它们的局限性。
    UNASSIGNED: Artificial intelligence (AI) is the ability of a computer machine to display human capabilities such as reasoning, learning, planning, and creativity. Such processing technology receives the data (already prepared or collected), processes them, using models and algorithms, and answers questions about forecasting and decision-making. AI systems are also able to adapt their behavior by analyzing the effects of previous actions and working then autonomously. Artificial intelligence is already present in our lives, even if it often goes unnoticed (shopping networked, home automation, vehicles). Even in the medical field, artificial intelligence can be used to analyze large amounts of medical data and discover matches and patterns to improve diagnosis and prevention. In forensic medicine, the applications of AI are numerous and are becoming more and more valuable.
    UNASSIGNED: A systematic review was conducted, selecting the articles in one of the most widely used electronic databases (PubMed). The research was conducted using the keywords \"AI forensic\" and \"machine learning forensic\". The research process included about 2000 Articles published from 1990 to the present.
    UNASSIGNED: We have focused on the most common fields of use and have been then 6 macro-topics were identified and analyzed. Specifically, articles were analyzed concerning the application of AI in forensic pathology (main area), toxicology, radiology, Personal identification, forensic anthropology, and forensic psychiatry.
    UNASSIGNED: The aim of the study is to evaluate the current applications of AI in forensic medicine for each field of use, trying to grasp future and more usable applications and underline their limitations.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:本研究的目的是系统回顾ChatGPT的报告表现,确定潜在的限制,并探索其整合的未来方向,优化,以及放射学应用中的伦理考虑。
    方法:在对PubMed进行全面审查后,WebofScience,Embase,和谷歌学者数据库,截至2024年1月1日,我们确定了一组已发表的研究,利用ChatGPT进行临床放射学应用.
    结果:在得出的861项研究中,44项研究评估了ChatGPT的性能;其中,37(37/44;84.1%)表现出高性能,7人(7/44;15.9%)表示在提供诊断和临床决策支持(6/44;13.6%)以及患者沟通和教育内容(1/44;2.3%)方面表现较低.24项(24/44;54.5%)研究报告了ChatGPT表现的比例。其中,19项(19/24;79.2%)研究记录的中位准确率为70.5%,在五项(5/24;20.8%)研究中,ChatGPT结果与参考标准[放射科医师的决定或指南]的一致性中位数为83.6%,在这些研究中普遍证实了ChatGPT的高准确性。11项研究比较了两个最新的ChatGPT版本,十个(10/11;90.9%),ChatGPTv4的表现优于v3.5,在解决高阶思维问题方面表现出显著的增强,更好地理解放射学术语,并提高了描述图像的准确性。使用ChatGPT的风险和担忧包括有偏见的回应,独创性有限,以及不准确信息导致错误信息的可能性,幻觉,不当引用和虚假引用,网络安全漏洞,和患者隐私风险。
    结论:尽管在84.1%的放射学研究中显示了ChatGPT的有效性,仍然有许多陷阱和限制需要解决。现在确认其完整的熟练程度和准确性还为时过早,需要更广泛的多中心研究利用不同的数据集和预训练技术来验证ChatGPT在放射学中的作用。
    OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to systematically review the reported performances of ChatGPT, identify potential limitations, and explore future directions for its integration, optimization, and ethical considerations in radiology applications.
    METHODS: After a comprehensive review of PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, and Google Scholar databases, a cohort of published studies was identified up to January 1, 2024, utilizing ChatGPT for clinical radiology applications.
    RESULTS: Out of 861 studies derived, 44 studies evaluated the performance of ChatGPT; among these, 37 (37/44; 84.1%) demonstrated high performance, and seven (7/44; 15.9%) indicated it had a lower performance in providing information on diagnosis and clinical decision support (6/44; 13.6%) and patient communication and educational content (1/44; 2.3%). Twenty-four (24/44; 54.5%) studies reported the proportion of ChatGPT\'s performance. Among these, 19 (19/24; 79.2%) studies recorded a median accuracy of 70.5%, and in five (5/24; 20.8%) studies, there was a median agreement of 83.6% between ChatGPT outcomes and reference standards [radiologists\' decision or guidelines], generally confirming ChatGPT\'s high accuracy in these studies. Eleven studies compared two recent ChatGPT versions, and in ten (10/11; 90.9%), ChatGPTv4 outperformed v3.5, showing notable enhancements in addressing higher-order thinking questions, better comprehension of radiology terms, and improved accuracy in describing images. Risks and concerns about using ChatGPT included biased responses, limited originality, and the potential for inaccurate information leading to misinformation, hallucinations, improper citations and fake references, cybersecurity vulnerabilities, and patient privacy risks.
    CONCLUSIONS: Although ChatGPT\'s effectiveness has been shown in 84.1% of radiology studies, there are still multiple pitfalls and limitations to address. It is too soon to confirm its complete proficiency and accuracy, and more extensive multicenter studies utilizing diverse datasets and pre-training techniques are required to verify ChatGPT\'s role in radiology.
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  • 文章类型: Systematic Review
    背景:健康劳动力预测模型是强大的医疗保健系统的组成部分。本研究旨在回顾卫生人力预测模型的方法和方法的最新进展,并提出一套良好实践报告指南。
    方法:我们通过搜索医学和社会科学数据库进行了系统综述,包括PubMed,EMBASE,Scopus,还有EconLit,涵盖2010年至2023年期间。纳入标准包括预测卫生人力需求和供应的研究。PROSPERO注册:CRD42023407858。
    结果:我们的综述确定了40项相关研究,包括39个单一国家分析(在澳大利亚,加拿大,德国,加纳,几内亚,爱尔兰,牙买加,Japan,哈萨克斯坦,韩国,莱索托,马拉维,新西兰,葡萄牙,沙特阿拉伯,塞尔维亚,新加坡,西班牙,泰国,英国,美国),和一项多国分析(在32个经合组织国家)。最近的研究越来越多地在卫生劳动力建模中采用复杂的系统方法,结合需求,供应,和供需缺口分析。该综述确定了最近文献中常用的至少八种不同类型的卫生劳动力预测模型:人口与提供者比率模型(n=7),利用模型(n=10),基于需求的模型(n=25),技能混合模型(n=5),存量与流量模型(n=40),基于代理的仿真模型(n=3),系统动态模型(n=7),和预算模型(n=5)。每个模型都有独特的假设,优势,和限制,从业者经常结合这些模型。此外,我们发现卫生劳动力预测模型中使用了七种统计方法:算术计算,优化,时间序列分析,计量经济学回归模型,微观模拟,基于队列的模拟,和反馈因果循环分析。劳动力预测通常依赖于不完美的数据,在地方一级粒度有限。现有的研究在报告其方法时缺乏标准化。作为回应,我们为卫生人力预测模型提出了一个良好的实践报告指南,旨在适应各种模型类型,新兴方法,并增加利用先进的统计技术来解决不确定性和数据需求。
    结论:这项研究强调了动态,多专业,以团队为基础,精细化需求,供应,以及由强大的卫生劳动力数据智能支持的预算影响分析。建议的最佳实践报告指南旨在帮助在同行评审期刊上发表卫生人力研究的研究人员。然而,预计这些报告标准将证明对分析师在设计自己的分析时很有价值,鼓励对卫生人力预测建模采取更全面和透明的方法。
    BACKGROUND: Health workforce projection models are integral components of a robust healthcare system. This research aims to review recent advancements in methodology and approaches for health workforce projection models and proposes a set of good practice reporting guidelines.
    METHODS: We conducted a systematic review by searching medical and social science databases, including PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus, and EconLit, covering the period from 2010 to 2023. The inclusion criteria encompassed studies projecting the demand for and supply of the health workforce. PROSPERO registration: CRD 42023407858.
    RESULTS: Our review identified 40 relevant studies, including 39 single countries analysis (in Australia, Canada, Germany, Ghana, Guinea, Ireland, Jamaica, Japan, Kazakhstan, Korea, Lesotho, Malawi, New Zealand, Portugal, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Singapore, Spain, Thailand, UK, United States), and one multiple country analysis (in 32 OECD countries). Recent studies have increasingly embraced a complex systems approach in health workforce modelling, incorporating demand, supply, and demand-supply gap analyses. The review identified at least eight distinct types of health workforce projection models commonly used in recent literature: population-to-provider ratio models (n = 7), utilization models (n = 10), needs-based models (n = 25), skill-mixed models (n = 5), stock-and-flow models (n = 40), agent-based simulation models (n = 3), system dynamic models (n = 7), and budgetary models (n = 5). Each model has unique assumptions, strengths, and limitations, with practitioners often combining these models. Furthermore, we found seven statistical approaches used in health workforce projection models: arithmetic calculation, optimization, time-series analysis, econometrics regression modelling, microsimulation, cohort-based simulation, and feedback causal loop analysis. Workforce projection often relies on imperfect data with limited granularity at the local level. Existing studies lack standardization in reporting their methods. In response, we propose a good practice reporting guideline for health workforce projection models designed to accommodate various model types, emerging methodologies, and increased utilization of advanced statistical techniques to address uncertainties and data requirements.
    CONCLUSIONS: This study underscores the significance of dynamic, multi-professional, team-based, refined demand, supply, and budget impact analyses supported by robust health workforce data intelligence. The suggested best-practice reporting guidelines aim to assist researchers who publish health workforce studies in peer-reviewed journals. Nevertheless, it is expected that these reporting standards will prove valuable for analysts when designing their own analysis, encouraging a more comprehensive and transparent approach to health workforce projection modelling.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    水,一种宝贵且不可再生的资源,在人类生存和社会发展中起着不可或缺的作用。水质的准确预测涉及对未来污染物浓度和水质指数的早期识别,能够基于证据的决策和有针对性的环境干预。先进计算技术的出现,特别是深度学习,由于其强大的数据分析能力,在水质预测中的应用引起了研究人员的极大兴趣。本文全面回顾了深度学习方法在水质预测中的部署,包括单模型和混合模型方法。此外,我们描述了优化策略,数据融合技术,以及影响基于深度学习的水质预测模型效果的其他因素,因为理解和掌握这些因素对于准确的水质预测至关重要。尽管数据稀缺等挑战,长期预测精度,大规模模型的有限部署持续存在,未来的研究旨在通过改进预测算法来解决这些局限性,利用高维数据集,评估模型性能,扩大大规模模型应用。这些努力有助于精确的水资源管理和环境保护。
    Water, an invaluable and non-renewable resource, plays an indispensable role in human survival and societal development. Accurate forecasting of water quality involves early identification of future pollutant concentrations and water quality indices, enabling evidence-based decision-making and targeted environmental interventions. The emergence of advanced computational technologies, particularly deep learning, has garnered considerable interest among researchers for applications in water quality prediction because of its robust data analytics capabilities. This article comprehensively reviews the deployment of deep learning methodologies in water quality forecasting, encompassing single-model and mixed-model approaches. Additionally, we delineate optimization strategies, data fusion techniques, and other factors influencing the efficacy of deep learning-based water quality prediction models, because understanding and mastering these factors are crucial for accurate water quality prediction. Although challenges such as data scarcity, long-term prediction accuracy, and limited deployments of large-scale models persist, future research aims to address these limitations by refining prediction algorithms, leveraging high-dimensional datasets, evaluating model performance, and broadening large-scale model application. These efforts contribute to precise water resource management and environmental conservation.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    医疗保健相关感染(HAIs)是医疗保健中最常见的不良事件,是全球主要的公共卫生问题。监测是有效预防和控制HAIs的基础,然而,传统的监测是昂贵和劳动密集型的。人工智能(AI)和机器学习(ML)有可能支持HAI监测算法的发展,以了解HAI风险因素,改善患者风险分层以及预测和及时发现和预防感染。到目前为止,人工智能支持系统已经被探索用于临床实验室测试和成像诊断,抗菌素耐药性分析,在HAIs方面,抗生素发现和基于预测的临床决策支持工具。这篇综述旨在提供有关AI在HAIs领域应用的最新文献的全面总结,并讨论这种新兴技术在感染实践中的未来潜力。按照PRISMA准则,这项研究检查了截至2023年11月的PubMed和Scopus数据库中的文章,这些文章是根据纳入和排除标准进行筛选的。共收录162篇文章。通过阐明该领域的进展,我们的目标是强调人工智能在该领域的潜在应用,报告相关问题和不足,并讨论未来的发展方向。
    Healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) are the most common adverse events in healthcare and constitute a major global public health concern. Surveillance represents the foundation for the effective prevention and control of HAIs, yet conventional surveillance is costly and labor intensive. Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) have the potential to support the development of HAI surveillance algorithms for the understanding of HAI risk factors, the improvement of patient risk stratification as well as the prediction and timely detection and prevention of infections. AI-supported systems have so far been explored for clinical laboratory testing and imaging diagnosis, antimicrobial resistance profiling, antibiotic discovery and prediction-based clinical decision support tools in terms of HAIs. This review aims to provide a comprehensive summary of the current literature on AI applications in the field of HAIs and discuss the future potentials of this emerging technology in infection practice. Following the PRISMA guidelines, this study examined the articles in databases including PubMed and Scopus until November 2023, which were screened based on the inclusion and exclusion criteria, resulting in 162 included articles. By elucidating the advancements in the field, we aim to highlight the potential applications of AI in the field, report related issues and shortcomings and discuss the future directions.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    评价道路交通能耗的指标是道路交通能耗研究领域的关键参数。提高能耗指标的适用性可以促进城市绿色交通的发展。然而,目前缺乏对能耗指标的系统分析研究。因此,在综合分析相关文献的基础上,本研究将评价道路交通能耗的指标分为宏观(针对交通系统或交通流量)和微观(针对车辆)两类。这些指标根据其应用特点又细分为四类,包括一般,具体,预测性,和全面的。本文对各种评价指标进行了完整的总结,包括其适用范围,优势,和限制,并强调了它们之间的关系。此外,对评价指标的未来发展提出了建议。研究发现,微观级别的一般指标几乎是所有其他指标的数学结构的基本组成部分。专门指标主要评估车辆在不同行驶状态下的能耗。预测指标主要用于评估模拟条件下的交通能耗。综合指标主要用于评估车辆或运输系统的生命周期能耗。在未来的研究中,可以通过标准化指标的设计来提高指标的性能,提高能耗预测精度,和交通流参数的整合。该研究有助于升级公路运输中的节能技术和发展可持续的城市交通系统。
    Indicators for evaluating road traffic energy consumption are critical parameters in the research field of road traffic energy consumption. Improving the applicability of energy consumption indicators can promote the development of green transportation in cities. However, there is currently a lack of systematic analysis of energy consumption indicators in research. Therefore, based on a comprehensive analysis of relevant literature, this study divides the indicators for evaluating road traffic energy consumption into two categories: macro (aimed at traffic systems or traffic flow) and micro (aimed at vehicles). These indicators are subdivided into four categories according to their application characteristics, including general, specific, predictive, and comprehensive. This paper provides a complete summary of various evaluation indicators, including their scope of application, advantages, and limitations, and highlights the relationships between them. Additionally, recommendations are made for the future development of evaluation indicators. Research has found that micro-level general indicators serve as the fundamental components of the mathematical structure for almost all other indicators. Specialized indicators primarily evaluate energy consumption in different driving states of vehicles. Predictive indicators are mainly used for assessing transportation energy consumption in simulation conditions. Comprehensive indicators are mainly applied to evaluate the life cycle energy consumption of vehicles or transportation systems. In future research, the performance of indicators can be improved through the design of standardized indicators, enhancement of energy consumption prediction accuracy, and integration of traffic flow parameters. The research contributes to upgrading energy-saving technologies in road transportation and developing sustainable urban transportation systems.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    地下水,世界上最丰富的淡水来源,由于各种因素,许多地区正在迅速枯竭。准确预测地下水位(GWL)对于有效管理这一重要资源至关重要,但这仍然是一项复杂而具有挑战性的任务。近年来,使用机器学习(ML)技术对GWL进行建模的情况显着增加,许多研究报告了异常的结果。在本文中,我们对2017年至2023年由WebofScience索引的142篇相关文章进行了全面回顾,重点关注关键的ML模型,包括人工神经网络(ANN),自适应神经模糊推理系统(ANFIS),支持向量回归(SVR),进化计算(EC),深度学习(DL),合奏学习(EN),和混合建模(HM)。我们还讨论了关键的建模概念,如数据集大小、数据拆分,输入变量选择,预测时间步长,性能指标(PM),研究区,和含水层,突出使用ML进行最佳GWL预测的最佳实践。这篇评论为地下水管理和水文学领域的研究人员和水管理机构提供了宝贵的见解和建议。
    Groundwater, the world\'s most abundant source of freshwater, is rapidly depleting in many regions due to a variety of factors. Accurate forecasting of groundwater level (GWL) is essential for effective management of this vital resource, but it remains a complex and challenging task. In recent years, there has been a notable increase in the use of machine learning (ML) techniques to model GWL, with many studies reporting exceptional results. In this paper, we present a comprehensive review of 142 relevant articles indexed by the Web of Science from 2017 to 2023, focusing on key ML models, including artificial neural networks (ANN), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS), support vector regression (SVR), evolutionary computing (EC), deep learning (DL), ensemble learning (EN), and hybrid-modeling (HM). We also discussed key modeling concepts such as dataset size, data splitting, input variable selection, forecasting time-step, performance metrics (PM), study zones, and aquifers, highlighting best practices for optimal GWL forecasting with ML. This review provides valuable insights and recommendations for researchers and water management agencies working in the field of groundwater management and hydrology.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    情感预测-对未来情绪反应的估计-是未来思维的重要方面,可以为判断和决策提供依据。普遍注意到情感预测中的偏见,特别是有情感障碍的人。尽管如此,情感预测在精神病理学模型中的作用很少受到关注。鉴于文学的现状,采用范围审查方法来总结和综合在精神病理学背景下测量情感预测的方法学方法以及有关这种关联的证据范围。搜索了三个数据库,以查找11月13日或之前发表的研究报告,2023年。回顾了研究情感预测及其与精神病理学关联的原始定量研究。使用为这项研究设计的表格绘制数据。总的来说,这篇综述强调了情感预测可操作性的异质性。大多数证据支持精神病理学的严重程度和情感预测的强度之间的关联,除了值得注意的例外,在情感预测的方法论和可操作性的范围内进行了讨论。这仍然是在精神病理学的信息处理模型中进行研究的重要过程,以阐明其在精神病理学的发展和维持中的作用以及作为干预目标的潜力。
    Affective forecasting - estimations of future emotional reactions - is an important aspect of future thinking that informs judgement and decision making. Biases in affective forecasting have been noted generally and with people with emotional disturbances specifically. Still, the role of affective forecasting within models of psychopathology has received little attention. Given the state of the literature, a scoping review method was adopted to summarize and synthesize the methodological approaches used in measuring affective forecasting within the context of psychopathology and the scope of the evidence on this association. Three databases were searched for research published on or before November 13th, 2023. Original quantitative research that examined affective forecasting and its association with psychopathology was reviewed. Data were charted using a form designed for this study. Overall, the review highlights the heterogeneity in operationalization of affective forecasting. The majority of the evidence supports an association between severity of psychopathology and intensity of affective forecasts, with notable exceptions, which are discussed within the scope of methodology and operationalization of affective forecasting. This remains an important process to investigate in information processing models of psychopathology to elucidate its role in the development and maintenance of psychopathology and potential as a target for intervention.
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