Forecasting

预测
  • 文章类型: Systematic Review
    背景:健康劳动力预测模型是强大的医疗保健系统的组成部分。本研究旨在回顾卫生人力预测模型的方法和方法的最新进展,并提出一套良好实践报告指南。
    方法:我们通过搜索医学和社会科学数据库进行了系统综述,包括PubMed,EMBASE,Scopus,还有EconLit,涵盖2010年至2023年期间。纳入标准包括预测卫生人力需求和供应的研究。PROSPERO注册:CRD42023407858。
    结果:我们的综述确定了40项相关研究,包括39个单一国家分析(在澳大利亚,加拿大,德国,加纳,几内亚,爱尔兰,牙买加,Japan,哈萨克斯坦,韩国,莱索托,马拉维,新西兰,葡萄牙,沙特阿拉伯,塞尔维亚,新加坡,西班牙,泰国,英国,美国),和一项多国分析(在32个经合组织国家)。最近的研究越来越多地在卫生劳动力建模中采用复杂的系统方法,结合需求,供应,和供需缺口分析。该综述确定了最近文献中常用的至少八种不同类型的卫生劳动力预测模型:人口与提供者比率模型(n=7),利用模型(n=10),基于需求的模型(n=25),技能混合模型(n=5),存量与流量模型(n=40),基于代理的仿真模型(n=3),系统动态模型(n=7),和预算模型(n=5)。每个模型都有独特的假设,优势,和限制,从业者经常结合这些模型。此外,我们发现卫生劳动力预测模型中使用了七种统计方法:算术计算,优化,时间序列分析,计量经济学回归模型,微观模拟,基于队列的模拟,和反馈因果循环分析。劳动力预测通常依赖于不完美的数据,在地方一级粒度有限。现有的研究在报告其方法时缺乏标准化。作为回应,我们为卫生人力预测模型提出了一个良好的实践报告指南,旨在适应各种模型类型,新兴方法,并增加利用先进的统计技术来解决不确定性和数据需求。
    结论:这项研究强调了动态,多专业,以团队为基础,精细化需求,供应,以及由强大的卫生劳动力数据智能支持的预算影响分析。建议的最佳实践报告指南旨在帮助在同行评审期刊上发表卫生人力研究的研究人员。然而,预计这些报告标准将证明对分析师在设计自己的分析时很有价值,鼓励对卫生人力预测建模采取更全面和透明的方法。
    BACKGROUND: Health workforce projection models are integral components of a robust healthcare system. This research aims to review recent advancements in methodology and approaches for health workforce projection models and proposes a set of good practice reporting guidelines.
    METHODS: We conducted a systematic review by searching medical and social science databases, including PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus, and EconLit, covering the period from 2010 to 2023. The inclusion criteria encompassed studies projecting the demand for and supply of the health workforce. PROSPERO registration: CRD 42023407858.
    RESULTS: Our review identified 40 relevant studies, including 39 single countries analysis (in Australia, Canada, Germany, Ghana, Guinea, Ireland, Jamaica, Japan, Kazakhstan, Korea, Lesotho, Malawi, New Zealand, Portugal, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Singapore, Spain, Thailand, UK, United States), and one multiple country analysis (in 32 OECD countries). Recent studies have increasingly embraced a complex systems approach in health workforce modelling, incorporating demand, supply, and demand-supply gap analyses. The review identified at least eight distinct types of health workforce projection models commonly used in recent literature: population-to-provider ratio models (n = 7), utilization models (n = 10), needs-based models (n = 25), skill-mixed models (n = 5), stock-and-flow models (n = 40), agent-based simulation models (n = 3), system dynamic models (n = 7), and budgetary models (n = 5). Each model has unique assumptions, strengths, and limitations, with practitioners often combining these models. Furthermore, we found seven statistical approaches used in health workforce projection models: arithmetic calculation, optimization, time-series analysis, econometrics regression modelling, microsimulation, cohort-based simulation, and feedback causal loop analysis. Workforce projection often relies on imperfect data with limited granularity at the local level. Existing studies lack standardization in reporting their methods. In response, we propose a good practice reporting guideline for health workforce projection models designed to accommodate various model types, emerging methodologies, and increased utilization of advanced statistical techniques to address uncertainties and data requirements.
    CONCLUSIONS: This study underscores the significance of dynamic, multi-professional, team-based, refined demand, supply, and budget impact analyses supported by robust health workforce data intelligence. The suggested best-practice reporting guidelines aim to assist researchers who publish health workforce studies in peer-reviewed journals. Nevertheless, it is expected that these reporting standards will prove valuable for analysts when designing their own analysis, encouraging a more comprehensive and transparent approach to health workforce projection modelling.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article

    第六届体育运动脑震荡国际共识会议,阿姆斯特丹2022,解决了成年人与运动相关的脑震荡(SRC),青少年,还有孩子.我们重点介绍了有关儿童(5-12岁)和青少年(13-18岁)SRC的最新证据基础和建议。预防策略显示使用护口器的SRC发生率较低,政策不允许在冰球中进行身体检查,和青少年橄榄球的神经肌肉训练。运动脑震荡评估工具(SCAT)证明了父母和儿童症状量表的稳健性,在受伤后的前72小时内具有最佳的诊断区分。亚急性评估(>72小时)需要结合症状量表的多模式工具,平衡措施,认知,动眼和前庭,心理健康,和睡眠评估,为此,开发了运动脑震荡办公室评估工具(SCOAT6[13+]和儿童SCOAT6[8-12])。而不是严格的休息,尽早恢复轻度体力活动,减少屏幕时间有利于恢复。建议对头晕的青少年进行颈前庭康复,颈部疼痛,和/或头痛超过10天。对持续症状超过30天的青少年进行积极的康复和协作护理可能会减轻症状。除了标准化和有效的症状评定量表外,没有其他测试和措施可用于诊断脑震荡后的持续症状。流体和成像生物标志物目前在诊断或评估从SRC的恢复方面具有有限的临床效用。改进了重返学校的范例。残疾的可变性质以及评估副运动员和不同种族运动员的差异,性别,讨论性别,儿科SRC研究的伦理考虑和未来方向。

    The 6th International Consensus Conference on Concussion in Sport, Amsterdam 2022, addressed sport-related concussion (SRC) in adults, adolescents, and children. We highlight the updated evidence-base and recommendations regarding SRC in children (5-12 years) and adolescents (13-18 years). Prevention strategies demonstrate lower SRC rates with mouthguard use, policy disallowing bodychecking in ice hockey, and neuromuscular training in adolescent rugby. The Sport Concussion Assessment Tools (SCAT) demonstrate robustness with the parent and child symptom scales, with the best diagnostic discrimination within the first 72 hours postinjury. Subacute evaluation (>72 hours) requires a multimodal tool incorporating symptom scales, balance measures, cognitive, oculomotor and vestibular, mental health, and sleep assessment, to which end the Sport Concussion Office Assessment Tools (SCOAT6 [13+] and Child SCOAT6 [8-12]) were developed. Rather than strict rest, early return to light physical activity and reduced screen time facilitate recovery. Cervicovestibular rehabilitation is recommended for adolescents with dizziness, neck pain, and/or headaches for greater than 10 days. Active rehabilitation and collaborative care for adolescents with persisting symptoms for more than 30 days may decrease symptoms. No tests and measures other than standardized and validated symptom rating scales are valid for diagnosing persisting symptoms after concussion. Fluid and imaging biomarkers currently have limited clinical utility in diagnosing or assessing recovery from SRC. Improved paradigms for return to school were developed. The variable nature of disability and differences in evaluating para athletes and those of diverse ethnicity, sex, and gender are discussed, as are ethical considerations and future directions in pediatric SRC research.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    对于孩子们来说,有意义的参与社区生活包括能够进入游戏场所。这样的社区游戏空间对所有孩子都很重要,包括残疾人。然而,孩子们很少被问及他们对游戏空间设计的看法,这可能进一步助长排他性做法,并损害儿童就影响他们的问题分享他们的观点的权利。在这次范围审查中,我们的目标是分析指导方针,并确定在规划公共游戏空间时支持儿童参与权的策略。指南是当地决策者在创建社区游戏空间时使用的实用工具,这是儿童户外游戏的重要场所。总的来说,确定了42条涉及儿童参与权的准则,以及社区的参与。使用了“最佳拟合”框架方法的定性证据综合,以伦迪的儿童参与模式为依据。调查结果揭示了最初社区参与作为关键先决条件的重要性。儿童参与的策略主要涉及“空间和声音”(针对不同能力的儿童),很少注意给予他们的观点应有的重视。这些证据表明,在支持成人和儿童在设计游戏空间方面平等合作的政策制定和实施方面,知识存在很大差距。儿童参与研究的未来方向需要关注公共游戏空间设计中的社区-儿童参与方法的结合。这种工作可以加强和促进成年人作为履行儿童权利义务的承担者的作用。这项审查在规划公共场所时产生了包容性策略,这可以在这个复杂的多层过程中为当地决策者提供支持。
    For children, meaningful participation in community life includes being able to access places for play. Such community playspaces are potentially important for all children, including those with disabilities. Yet, children are rarely asked for their views on the design of playspaces, which can further contribute to exclusionary practices and undermine children\'s rights to share their views on matters that affect them. In this scoping review, we aim to analyze guidelines and identify strategies for supporting children\'s participation rights when planning public playspaces. Guidelines are practical tools used by local policymakers when creating community playspaces, which are important sites for children\'s outdoor play. In total, forty-two guidelines were identified that addressed children\'s participation rights, along with community involvement. Qualitative evidence synthesis with a \"best fit\" framework approach was used, informed by Lundy\'s model of children\'s participation. The findings revealed the importance of initial community involvement as a critical prerequisite. Strategies for children\'s participation mostly concerned \"space and voice\" (for children of diverse abilities), with little attention paid to giving their views due weight. This evidence shows that there is a significant gap in knowledge surrounding policy development and implementation to support adults and children to cooperate equally in designing playspaces. Future directions for research in children\'s participation require a focus on combined community-children participation approaches in public playspace design. Such work could strengthen and facilitate the role of adults as bearers of the duty to implement the rights of children. This review generated inclusive strategies in planning public playspaces, which could support local policymakers in this complex multi-layered process.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    The World Health Organization Model List of Essential Medicines has led to at least 137 national lists. Essential medicines should be grounded in evidence-based guideline recommendations and explicit decision criteria. Essential medicines should be available, accessible, affordable, and the supporting evidence should be accompanied by a rating of the certainty one can place in it. Our objectives were to identify criteria and considerations that should be addressed in moving from a guideline recommendation regarding a medicine to the decision of whether to add, maintain, or remove a medicine from an essential medicines list. We also seek to explore opportunities to improve organizational processes to support evidence-based health decision-making more broadly.
    We conducted a qualitative study with semistructured interviews of key informant stakeholders in the development and use of guidelines and essential medicine lists (EMLs). We used an interpretive descriptive analysis approach and thematic analysis of interview transcripts in NVIVO v12.
    We interviewed 16 key informants working at national and global levels across all WHO regions. We identified five themes: three descriptive/explanatory themes 1) EMLs and guidelines, the same, but different; 2) EMLs can drive price reductions and improve affordability and access; 3) Time lag and disconnect between guidelines and EMLs; and two prescriptive themes 4) An \"evidence pipeline\" could improve coordination between guidelines and EMLs; 5) Facilitating the link between the WHO Model List of Essential Medicines (WHO EML) and national EMLs could increase alignment.
    We found significant overlap and opportunities for alignment between guideline and essential medicine decision processes. This finding presents opportunities for guideline and EML developers to enhance strategies for collaboration. Future research should assess and evaluate these strategies in practice to support the shared goal of guidelines and EMLs: improvements in health.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    妇科癌症InterGroup(GCIG)第六届卵巢癌临床研究会议实际上于10月举行,2021年,遵循已发布的共识指南。共识会议的目标是在即将进行的卵巢癌试验的设计要素上实现协调。选择未来研究的重要问题,并确定未满足的需求。所有33个GCIG成员团体都参与了开发,精致,并在四个主题组中采用了20个关于卵巢癌临床研究的声明,包括一线治疗,复发性疾病,疾病亚组,和未来的审判。20份声明中有14份获得一致共识,其余六项声明的一致性超过90%。GCIG小组积极审议后的高接受率证实,共识过程可以在虚拟环境中应用。连同未满足的需求的详细分类,这些共识将促进卵巢癌国际临床研究的协调.
    The Gynecologic Cancer InterGroup (GCIG) sixth Ovarian Cancer Conference on Clinical Research was held virtually in October, 2021, following published consensus guidelines. The goal of the consensus meeting was to achieve harmonisation on the design elements of upcoming trials in ovarian cancer, to select important questions for future study, and to identify unmet needs. All 33 GCIG member groups participated in the development, refinement, and adoption of 20 statements within four topic groups on clinical research in ovarian cancer including first line treatment, recurrent disease, disease subgroups, and future trials. Unanimous consensus was obtained for 14 of 20 statements, with greater than 90% concordance in the remaining six statements. The high acceptance rate following active deliberation among the GCIG groups confirmed that a consensus process could be applied in a virtual setting. Together with detailed categorisation of unmet needs, these consensus statements will promote the harmonisation of international clinical research in ovarian cancer.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    深静脉血栓形成(DVT)的特征是深静脉异常凝血引起的静脉回流障碍。它通常发生在下肢,是骨科的常见并发症。因此,国内外相关专业机构制定并不断更新相关指南,以预防DVT的发生。根据《管理战略指引》,DVT的发生率可以显著降低。然而,由于骨折类型的多样性,目前指南不能阐述所有骨折类型DVT的预防措施和特点,还有其他相关的未解决的问题。例如,对于孤立性下肢骨折发病率较高的DVT,目前仍缺乏一致的最佳治疗策略.上肢骨折患者的最佳抗凝策略,小儿骨折,那些合并其他损伤很少在骨科指南中描述,但是这种骨折在临床骨科很常见。DVT后的长期并发症,比如血栓后综合征,不是很了解。如果没有明确的指导,骨科医生经常采取经验性抗凝或保守治疗,因此DVT的预防效果不一致。这篇综述的目的是总结孤立性下肢骨折后DVT事件的特征,并通过回顾以前的文献和追踪DVT发现的历史来讨论指南中尚未解决的问题。为DVT的预测和预防提供更科学、全面的建议。
    Deep venous thrombosis (DVT) has been characterized by a disorder of venous return caused by abnormal blood clotting in deep veins. It often occurs in the lower limbs and is a common complication in orthopaedics. Therefore, relevant professional organizations domestic and overseas had formulated and constantly updated relevant guidelines to prevent the occurrence of DVT. According to the management strategy of the guidelines, the incidence of DVT can be significantly reduced. However, due to the variety of fractures types, the guidelines cannot expound precautions and characteristics of DVT for all fracture types at present, and there are other related unresolved problems. For example, there is still a lack of consistent optimal strategies for the management of DVT following isolated lower extremity fractures with a higher incidence. The best anticoagulant strategies for patients with upper limb fractures, pediatric fractures, and those combined with other injuries are rarely described in orthopaedic guidelines, but such fractures are common in clinical orthopaedics. The long-term complications after DVT, such as post-thrombotic syndrome, are not well-understood. In the absence of clear guidance, orthopaedic surgeons often resort to empiric anticoagulation or conservative treatment, so the prevention effects of DVT are inconsistent. The purpose of this review is to summarize the characteristics of DVT events after isolated lower extremity fractures and to discuss the unsolved issues in the guidelines by reviewing the previous literature and tracing the history of DVT discovery, to provide more scientific and comprehensive recommendations for the prediction and prevention of DVT.
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  • 文章类型: Editorial
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    COVID-19强调了对数字健康的普遍长期投资不足,这阻碍了公共卫生对这一流行病的反应。认识到这一点,《利雅得数字健康宣言》由国际跨学科医学团队制定,学术,和行业专家在2020年8月举行的利雅得全球数字健康峰会上,为全球卫生界提供了一套数字健康建议,以应对当前和未来大流行的挑战。然而,需要指导如何在实践中实施这些建议。
    为利益相关者制定指导意见,说明如何以综合方式最好地部署数字卫生和数据,并支持公共卫生,以克服COVID-19大流行和未来的大流行。
    主题是通过首先回顾文献和利雅得全球数字健康峰会会议记录来确定的,由专家独立提出想法。然后,进行了两轮审查,直到所有专家都对使用名义小组技术达成共识的主题和主要问题达成共识。确定优先次序的依据是协商一致建议对决策者可能有多有用。
    由13位公共卫生领域领导者组成的多元化利益相关者团体,数字健康,并参与卫生保健工作,就如何实施数字卫生建议以应对当前和未来大流行的挑战达成共识。与会者就5个主题中确定的高度优先问题达成共识:透明度和信任,技术,技术(在卫生保健和卫生中战略开发和部署技术,以实现卫生公平),和转型。每个主题都包含着指导地方的具体共识点,国家,以及国际上采用数字健康来应对当前和未来大流行的挑战。
    为这些主题描述的共识点提供了所有利益相关者实施数字卫生政策的路线图。包括政府。这些建议的实施可以通过减少死亡人数和团结各国共同应对当前和未来的流行病而产生重大影响。
    COVID-19 has highlighted widespread chronic underinvestment in digital health that hampered public health responses to the pandemic. Recognizing this, the Riyadh Declaration on Digital Health, formulated by an international interdisciplinary team of medical, academic, and industry experts at the Riyadh Global Digital Health Summit in August 2020, provided a set of digital health recommendations for the global health community to address the challenges of current and future pandemics. However, guidance is needed on how to implement these recommendations in practice.
    To develop guidance for stakeholders on how best to deploy digital health and data and support public health in an integrated manner to overcome the COVID-19 pandemic and future pandemics.
    Themes were determined by first reviewing the literature and Riyadh Global Digital Health Summit conference proceedings, with experts independently contributing ideas. Then, 2 rounds of review were conducted until all experts agreed on the themes and main issues arising using a nominal group technique to reach consensus. Prioritization was based on how useful the consensus recommendation might be to a policy maker.
    A diverse stakeholder group of 13 leaders in the fields of public health, digital health, and health care were engaged to reach a consensus on how to implement digital health recommendations to address the challenges of current and future pandemics. Participants reached a consensus on high-priority issues identified within 5 themes: team, transparency and trust, technology, techquity (the strategic development and deployment of technology in health care and health to achieve health equity), and transformation. Each theme contains concrete points of consensus to guide the local, national, and international adoption of digital health to address challenges of current and future pandemics.
    The consensus points described for these themes provide a roadmap for the implementation of digital health policy by all stakeholders, including governments. Implementation of these recommendations could have a significant impact by reducing fatalities and uniting countries on current and future battles against pandemics.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    行为和社会科学是理解和解决口腔和颅面健康的核心,疾病,和条件。有了基本方法和应用方法,行为和社会科学与牙科和所有牙科学科相关,口服,和颅面科学,以及口腔健康促进计划和医疗保健服务。理解多层次的关键,对口腔健康行为和结果的相互作用影响,行为和社会科学关注个人,家庭,groups,文化,系统,社会,regions,和国家。独特的定位是强调种族的重要性,文化,以及口腔健康方面的其他公平,行为和社会科学需要关注个人和群体,社会对它们的反应与权力有关,以及环境和其他背景因素。这里提出的是通过迭代反馈过程产生的共识声明。该声明反映了行为和社会口腔健康科学的当前知识状态,并确定了该领域的未来方向,重点关注4个关键领域:与口腔健康相关的行为和社会理论和机制,在与口腔健康相关的社会和行为研究和实践中使用多种新颖的方法,开发和测试行为和社会干预措施,以促进口腔健康,以及口腔健康的传播和实施研究。该声明得到了来自世界各地的400多名个人和团体的认可,代表了口腔健康以及行为和社会科学的众多学科。达成共识后,需要采取行动来推进和进一步整合行为和社会科学并将其转化为口腔健康研究,口腔健康促进和保健,以及对确保所有人口腔健康的工作人员的培训。
    The behavioral and social sciences are central to understanding and addressing oral and craniofacial health, diseases, and conditions. With both basic and applied approaches, behavioral and social sciences are relevant to every discipline in dentistry and all dental, oral, and craniofacial sciences, as well as oral health promotion programs and health care delivery. Key to understanding multilevel, interacting influences on oral health behavior and outcomes, the behavioral and social sciences focus on individuals, families, groups, cultures, systems, societies, regions, and nations. Uniquely positioned to highlight the importance of racial, cultural, and other equity in oral health, the behavioral and social sciences necessitate a focus on both individuals and groups, societal reactions to them related to power, and environmental and other contextual factors. Presented here is a consensus statement that was produced through an iterative feedback process. The statement reflects the current state of knowledge in the behavioral and social oral health sciences and identifies future directions for the field, focusing on 4 key areas: behavioral and social theories and mechanisms related to oral health, use of multiple and novel methodologies in social and behavioral research and practice related to oral health, development and testing of behavioral and social interventions to promote oral health, and dissemination and implementation research for oral health. This statement was endorsed by over 400 individuals and groups from around the world and representing numerous disciplines in oral health and the behavioral and social sciences. Having reached consensus, action is needed to advance and further integrate and translate behavioral and social sciences into oral health research, oral health promotion and health care, and the training of those working to ensure oral health for all.
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