Flood risk assessment

洪水风险评估
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    随着气候变化和城市化,洪水灾害严重影响了世界范围内的城市发展。在这项研究中,我们开发了一个范式来评估城市中尺度的洪水经济脆弱性和风险,以城市土地利用为重点。水文模拟用于通过淹没分析评估洪水灾害,并应用了灾害脆弱性矩阵来评估洪水风险,通过量化与不同土地类型相关的不同经济价值和洪水损失,加强经济脆弱性评估。以王城坡为例,长沙,中国,发现平均总经济损失为126.94美元/平方米,结算核心风险最高。住宅区的洪水灾害最大,脆弱性,和损失(占总损失的61.10%);交通运输区由于其较高的洪水深度,造成总经济损失的27.87%。尽管洪水很少,工业用地由于整体经济价值较高(占总数的10.52%),表现出更大的经济脆弱性。我们的发现强调了土地类型和行业差异对洪水脆弱性的影响,以及在空间洪水特征的城市中尺度分析中土地利用包含的有效性。我们为城市土地和防灾管理和规划确定了具有危险和经济脆弱性的关键区域,帮助提供有针对性的防洪策略,以增强城市韧性。
    With climate change and urbanization, flood disasters have significantly affected urban development worldwide. In this study, we developed a paradigm to assess flood economic vulnerability and risk at the urban mesoscale, focusing on urban land use. A hydrological simulation was used to evaluate flood hazards through inundation analyses, and a hazard-vulnerability matrix was applied to assess flood risk, enhancing the economic vulnerability assessment by quantifying the differing economic value and flood losses associated with different land types. The case study of Wangchengpo, Changsha, China, found average total economic losses of 126.94 USD/m2, with the highest risk in the settlement core. Residential areas had the highest flood hazard, vulnerability, and losses (61.10% of the total loss); transportation areas accounted for 27.87% of the total economic losses due to their high flooding depth. Despite low inundation, industrial land showed greater economic vulnerability due to higher overall economic value (10.52% of the total). Our findings highlight the influence of land types and industry differences on flood vulnerability and the effectiveness of land-use inclusion in urban-mesoscale analyses of spatial flood characteristics. We identify critical areas with hazard and economic vulnerability for urban land and disaster prevention management and planning, helping to offer targeted flood control strategies to enhance urban resilience.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    作为最具破坏性的自然灾害之一,飓风引发的洪水对人口产生了严重的不利影响,基础设施,和全球环境。在城市地区,高人口和基础设施密度等复杂特征增加了洪水灾害风险。因此,洪水风险评估对于了解对城市地区的潜在影响和提出减灾战略变得越来越重要。在进行了全面的文献综述后,这项研究发现,大多数城市洪水风险评估往往忽略了城市生态系统要素,更加注重社会和经济方面。因此,不能完全理解城市生态系统的作用。为了解决这个差距,这项研究提出了城市地区的社会生态系统(SES)洪水风险评估框架。基于这个框架,提供了通过文献综述收集的全面指标清单,用于城市洪水风险评估。休斯顿飓风哈维(2017)期间洪水风险的比较研究,德州,美国,采用改进的层次分析法(IAHP)加权法和等权重法进行指标加权。然后将结果与美国联邦紧急事务管理局(FEMA)发布的哈维飓风的破坏数据进行比较。分析发现,休斯顿西部的洪水风险最高,而休斯顿市中心的洪水风险较低。IAHP和等权重方法的结果之间的比较表明,后者比前者产生的高洪水风险区域范围更广。这项研究还强调了城市生态系统在减轻洪水风险方面的作用,并倡导更全面,洪水风险的社会生态评估。此类评估可以利用拟议的框架和指标列表,但将其与正在调查的特定城市地区的背景联系起来。
    As one of the most destructive nature hazards, hurricane-induced flooding generates serious adverse impacts on populations, infrastructure, and the environment globally. In urban areas, complex characteristics such as high population and infrastructure densities increase flood disaster risks. Consequently, the assessment of flood risks is becoming increasingly important for understanding potential impacts on an urban area and proposing disaster risk mitigation strategies. After conducting a comprehensive literature review, this study finds that most urban flood risk assessments often overlook urban ecosystem elements, focusing more on social and economic aspects. Hence, the role of urban ecosystems cannot be fully understood. To address this gap, this study proposes a social-ecological systems (SES) flood risk assessment framework for urban areas. Based on this framework, a comprehensive list of indicators collected through a literature review is provided for urban flood risk assessments. A comparative study of flood risk during Hurricane Harvey (2017) in Houston, Texas, USA, is carried out using the improved analytic hierarchy process (IAHP) weighting method and the equal weighting method for indicator weighting. Results are then compared with the damage data of Hurricane Harvey published by the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The analysis identifies that the western part of Houston had the highest flood risks, while the center of Houston was at lower flood risk. Comparisons between the results from the IAHP and equal weighting methods show that the latter produces a broader range of high flood risk areas than the former. This study also highlights the role of urban ecosystems in mitigating flood risks and advocates for more holistic, social-ecological assessments of flood risk. Such assessments could utilize the proposed framework and the indicator list but contextualize these to the specific urban area\'s contexts being investigated.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在这篇文章中,提出了利用卫星图像的时间序列进行洪水灾害测绘和洪水风险评估的方法。从卫星图像中提取洪水多发地区的洪水区域,并生成每个洪水事件的最大洪水范围图像。这些图被进一步融合以确定淹没的相对频率(RFI)。研究表明,RFI值和相对水深表现出相同的概率分布,Kolmogorov-Smirnov试验证实了这一点.生成的RFI图可以用作洪水灾害图,特别是在洪水建模由于缺乏可用数据和高度不确定性而变得复杂的情况下。导出的RFI图进一步用于洪水风险评估。在KatimaMulilo地区(纳米比亚)证明了所提出方法的效率。处理从1989年到2012年获取的Landsat-5/7卫星图像的时间序列,以使用所提出的方法得出RFI图。在洪水风险评估的研究中考虑了以下直接损害类别:住宅单位,道路,卫生设施,和学校。生成的洪水风险图表明,风险在整个地区分布均匀。确定风险最高的城市和村庄。拟议的方法具有最低的数据要求,可以快速生成RFI地图,以在紧急情况下帮助救援人员和决策者。另一方面,限制包括:对可用数据集的强烈依赖,以及外推水深值模拟的局限性。
    In this article, the use of time series of satellite imagery to flood hazard mapping and flood risk assessment is presented. Flooded areas are extracted from satellite images for the flood-prone territory, and a maximum flood extent image for each flood event is produced. These maps are further fused to determine relative frequency of inundation (RFI). The study shows that RFI values and relative water depth exhibit the same probabilistic distribution, which is confirmed by Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The produced RFI map can be used as a flood hazard map, especially in cases when flood modeling is complicated by lack of available data and high uncertainties. The derived RFI map is further used for flood risk assessment. Efficiency of the presented approach is demonstrated for the Katima Mulilo region (Namibia). A time series of Landsat-5/7 satellite images acquired from 1989 to 2012 is processed to derive RFI map using the presented approach. The following direct damage categories are considered in the study for flood risk assessment: dwelling units, roads, health facilities, and schools. The produced flood risk map shows that the risk is distributed uniformly all over the region. The cities and villages with the highest risk are identified. The proposed approach has minimum data requirements, and RFI maps can be generated rapidly to assist rescuers and decisionmakers in case of emergencies. On the other hand, limitations include: strong dependence on the available data sets, and limitations in simulations with extrapolated water depth values.
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