随着工业化步伐的加快和人类活动强度的加大,全球气候变化和能源危机已达到严重程度。因此,实现碳排放的早期峰值已成为解决这一紧迫问题的当务之急。特别是,沿海省份,以其发达经济体而闻名,人口密度高,和大量的建筑能耗,已经成为碳排放的重要贡献者。值得注意的是,公共建筑,作为建筑业的重要组成部分,具有巨大的节能和减排潜力。鉴于此,本研究的重点是福建省,位于海岸,并构建了基于Kaya身份的公共建筑碳排放估算模型。该模型考虑了福建省特有的各种因素,包括人口特征,经济条件,第三产业发展,公共建筑面积,和能源消耗。通过情景分析,研究预测,在低碳条件下,福建省公共建筑碳排放峰值年预计为2030年、2035年和2040年,基线,和高碳情景。相应的碳排放峰值水平预计将达到2362万吨,2418万t,和2476万吨二氧化碳。最后,根据当地政策和实际情况,该研究提出了一套适合福建省的政策措施和可行的方法,旨在实现碳排放的早期峰值。
With the rapid pace of industrialization and the increasing intensity of human activities, the global climate change and energy crisis have reached a heightened level of severity. Consequently, achieving an early peak in carbon emissions has become an imperative in addressing this pressing issue. Particularly, coastal provinces, known for their developed economies, high population density, and substantial building energy consumption, have emerged as significant contributors to carbon emissions. Notably, public buildings, serving as critical constituents of the construction industry, possess immense potential for both energy conservation and emissions reduction. In light of this, the present study focuses on Fujian Province, situated along the coast, and constructs a carbon emission estimation model for public buildings based on the Kaya identity. This model takes into account various factors specific to Fujian Province, including population characteristics, economic conditions, tertiary industry development, public building area, and energy consumption. Through scenario analysis, the study projects that the year of peak carbon emissions for public buildings in Fujian Province is estimated to be 2030, 2035, and 2040 under low-carbon, baseline, and high-carbon scenarios respectively. The corresponding peak carbon emission levels are anticipated to reach 23.62 million t, 24.18 million t, and 24.76 million t CO2. Lastly, based on local policies and actual conditions, the study proposes a set of policy measures and feasible approaches tailored to Fujian Province, aiming to achieve an early peak in carbon emissions.