背景:小反刍动物是提格雷地区畜牧业生产的主要组成部分,埃塞俄比亚。但是他们的生产力受到各种因素的影响。据农民和专家观察,山羊流产是Tanqua-Abergelle地区生产损失的主要原因之一。然而,调查该地区山羊流产病例的分布程度和经济影响的研究结果很少。这项回顾性研究调查了七年来在Abergelle农业研究中心山羊繁育地点的三种山羊品种类型中流产的发生及其相关危险因素。这项研究包括了一岁以上的孩子,数据是从专门为堕胎病例准备的案例手册中收集的。进行了彻底的随访,以确定堕胎病例。此外,在研究中心所在的选定村庄进行了社区调查。
结果:羊场总体流产率为29.8%。Begait山羊品种的流产比例最高(50.9%,2015/16年度CI0.36-0.64)。多因素logistic回归分析确定年份,季节,年龄和品种是羊群流产发生的主要危险因素。因此,与雨季相比,旱季山羊流产的可能性(比例=34)高1.87倍(比例=22.8)。Begait品种的流产发生率较高(比例为37.5%,OR4.87,CI2.49-10.35)与其他品种相比。年龄与堕胎呈负相关,这表明年龄较大的山羊(OR=0.67)比年龄较小的山羊(OR=0.57)具有更高的相对风险。此外,研究指出,在2014/15至2016/17年期间,流产发生率较高(比例=35.7~39.7).品种内分析表明,年龄和季节是Abergelle和Begait品种的重要危险因素,分别采用多元逻辑回归分析。一项社区调查显示,89.7%的家庭回答他们的山羊经历了流产。
结论:这项研究强调了Abergelle山羊流产的高患病率,并确定了与其发生相关的重要危险因素。这些发现可以提供有针对性的干预措施,以降低该地区的流产率并提高山羊的生产力。
BACKGROUND: Small ruminants are the principal component of livestock production in Tigray region, Ethiopia. But their productivity is affected by various factors. According to farmers and expert observation, goat abortion is among the leading causes of production losses in Tanqua-Abergelle district. However,
study findings that examine the extent of distribution and economic impact of abortion cases in goats in the district are scarce. This retrospective
study investigated the occurrence of abortion and its associated risk factors in three goat breed types at Abergelle Agricultural Research Center goat breeding site over a seven year period. The
study included a total of does above one year old, and data were collected from a casebook that was specifically prepared for abortion cases. A thorough follow up was conducted to identify abortion cases. Additionally, a community survey was conducted in selected villages where the research center is located.
RESULTS: The overall abortion proportion was 29.8% in the goat farm. Begait goat breeds had the highest abortion proportion (50.9%, CI 0.36-0.64) in 2015/16. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified year, season, age and breed as major risk factors of abortion occurrence at flock level. Accordingly, the likelihood of goats experiencing abortion during the dry season (proportion = 34) was 1.87 times higher compared to those in the wet season (proportion = 22.8). Begait breeds had a higher incidence of abortion (proportion 37.5%, OR 4.87, CI 2.49-10.35) compared to other breeds. Age was negatively associated with abortion, suggesting that older goats (OR = 0.67) had a higher relative risk than younger goats (OR = 0.57). Moreover, the
study noted a high incidence of abortion during the years 2014/15 to 2016/17 (proportion = 35.7-39.7). Within-breed analysis revealed that age and season were significant risk factors for Abergelle and Begait breeds, respectively by using a multivariate logistic regression analysis. A community survey indicated that 89.7% households responded their goats experienced abortion.
CONCLUSIONS: This
study highlighted the high prevalence of goat abortion at Abergelle and identifies important risk factors associated with its occurrence. The findings can inform targeted interventions to reduce abortion rates and improve goat productivity in the district.