PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
Temperature fluctuations and related factors are among the main causes of climate change. Understanding the temporal and spatial variations in temperature can shed light on how species respond to climate change. Plants generally persist in suitable microclimates in response to environmental change; however, examining long-term temperature variations within a species\' range can be challenging using field observations. Thermal remote sensing, on the other hand, provides multi-scale time-series data with good coverage and regularity to overcome the challenges associated with field observations in environmental monitoring. Although changes in land surface temperature (LST) affect climate, hydrological processes, land-atmosphere interactions, and ecological activities, this metric has not received much research attention. This study aimed to analyze changes in habitat suitability and microclimatic conditions for Moringa peregrina. Seasonal changes in LST within the distribution range of the species were also investigated. To this aim, mean seasonal LST was computed in Google Earth Engine using the daily MODIS/006/MYD13A2 product from 2003 to 2023. Subsequently, a binary habitat suitability map was created based on the true skill statistic (TSS). The Mann-Kendall test was used to analyze seasonal LST trends. Major trends in LST were quantified based on the z-score, and compatibility with habitat suitability was evaluated via GAP analysis and the Kappa index. Seasonal temperature trends were evaluated by comparing each season with the following season using binary comparison. Landforms at presence points were regarded as microclimates and the sensitivity of microclimates to LST was evaluated using two methods: Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to quantify seasonal LST heterogeneity and the random forest (RF) approach was used to evaluate the effect of environmental parameters on habitat suitability within microclimates. The Kappa index revealed a weak overlapping between suitable / unsuitable habitat and the surfaces affected by the trend of changes. Moreover, the suitable habitat of Moringa peregrina in spring, autumn and winter is spatially overlapped by areas that have shown an increasing LST trend, and the presence points have not experienced an increasing temperature trend only in the summer. The findings show that the analysis of seasonal trends in LST provides insights into the effect of LST on habitat suitability and the condition of vegetation. The current study clearly shows that seasonal changes have had a significant impact on the distribution and habitat suitability of M. peregrina, particularly during summer and winter. Improved habitat suitability and range expansion were observed throughout the year. The study also highlights the role of landforms in regulating temperature. Landforms such as local ridges with minimal temperature fluctuations and regions near the Oman Sea were identified as potential future habitats due to favorable humidity conditions.
摘要：
温度波动和相关因素是气候变化的主要原因之一。了解温度的时空变化可以揭示物种如何应对气候变化。植物通常会在适当的微气候中持续存在，以应对环境变化；然而，使用野外观测来检查物种范围内的长期温度变化可能具有挑战性。热遥感,另一方面,提供具有良好覆盖范围和规律性的多尺度时间序列数据，以克服与环境监测中的实地观测相关的挑战。尽管地表温度（LST）的变化会影响气候，水文过程，陆地-大气相互作用，生态活动,这个指标并没有受到太多的研究关注。本研究旨在分析辣木的栖息地适宜性和微气候条件的变化。还研究了该物种分布范围内LST的季节性变化。为了这个目标,从2003年到2023年，平均季节性LST是在GoogleEarthEngine中使用每日MODIS/006/MYD13A2产品计算的。随后，基于真实技能统计（TSS）创建了二元栖息地适合性地图。Mann-Kendall检验用于分析季节性LST趋势。LST的主要趋势是根据z分数量化的，并通过GAP分析和Kappa指数评估了与栖息地适宜性的相容性。通过使用二元比较将每个季节与下一个季节进行比较来评估季节性温度趋势。存在点的地貌被视为微气候，并使用两种方法评估了微气候对LST的敏感性：使用主成分分析（PCA）来量化季节性LST的异质性，并使用随机森林（RF）方法来评估环境参数对微气候内生境适宜性的影响。Kappa指数显示，合适/不合适的栖息地与受变化趋势影响的表面之间存在弱重叠。此外，春天辣木peregrina的适宜栖息地，秋季和冬季在空间上被表现出LST上升趋势的地区重叠，并且存在点并没有经历仅在夏季的温度上升趋势。研究结果表明，对LST的季节性趋势的分析可以洞悉LST对栖息地适宜性和植被状况的影响。当前的研究清楚地表明，季节变化对Peregrina的分布和栖息地适应性产生了重大影响，特别是在夏季和冬季。全年观察到改善的栖息地适宜性和范围扩展。该研究还强调了地貌在调节温度方面的作用。由于有利的湿度条件，诸如温度波动最小的局部山脊和阿曼海附近的地区等地貌被确定为潜在的未来栖息地。
