Abstract：
Owing to the contradiction between agricultural production and environmental development, the issues of food security and carbon mitigation cannot be isolated, and achieving coupled and coordinated development is the key to agricultural sustainability. This study adopted the coupled coordination model and dynamic qualitative comparative analysis (dynamic QCA) method to measure the coupled coordination degree (CCD) of the food security index (FSI) and agricultural carbon emission efficiency (ACEE) in 31 provinces of China from 2010 to 2021, seeking paths to achieve high coupled coordination from Climate-Smart Agriculture technology, external environment, and incentive dimensions, and simulating path selection differences under various CSA priority scenarios. The results indicated that the CCD of the FSI and ACEE in China significantly increased year-on-year increase, with significant regional differences primarily reflected in the Northeast > East > West > Central regions. Based on the CSA orientation, the \"technology-environmental safeguard\" linkage path and the \"technology-environment-incentive\" hybrid path are proposed. There are differences in CSA practices across regions, which require customization based on their unique socioeconomic, ecological, and political landscapes. When priorities favour food security, the \"technology-environment-incentive\" hybrid pathway supports high CCD, and as priorities increase, the contribution of CSA technologies, centred on water-saving irrigation, increases and the role of the external environment diminishes. When the priority tendency is to mitigate emissions, both paths can achieve high CCD. As the priority tendency for carbon emissions increases, urbanisation and CSA technologies such as water-saving irrigation and straw return become essential factors contributing to higher coupling coordination, and the role of agriculture-related financial expenditures diminishes. These findings provide policy support for safeguarding food security and low-carbon agriculture.
摘要：
由于农业生产与环境发展的矛盾,粮食安全和碳减排问题不能孤立，实现耦合协调发展是农业可持续发展的关键。本研究采用耦合协调模型和动态定性比较分析(动态QCA)方法,测算了2010-2021年我国31个省份粮食安全指数(FSI)和农业碳排放效率(ACEE)的耦合协调度(CCD),寻求气候智慧型农业技术实现高度耦合协调的路径。外部环境,和激励维度，并模拟各种CSA优先级场景下的路径选择差异。结果表明，中国FSI和ACEE的CCD逐年增加，区域差异显著，主要体现在东北>东部>西部>中部地区。根据CSA的方向，提出了“技术-环境保障”联动路径和“技术-环境-激励”混合路径。不同地区的CSA实践存在差异，这需要基于其独特的社会经济定制，生态,和政治景观。当优先事项有利于粮食安全时，“技术-环境-激励”混合途径支持高CCD，随着优先事项的增加，CSA技术的贡献，以节水灌溉为中心，增加，外部环境的作用减弱。当优先趋势是减少排放时，两种路径都可以实现高CCD。随着碳排放的优先趋势增加，城市化和CSA技术，如节水灌溉和秸秆还田，成为促进更高耦合协调的重要因素，农业相关财政支出的作用减弱。这些发现为保障粮食安全和低碳农业提供了政策支持。
