Dynamic QCA

  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    由于农业生产与环境发展的矛盾,粮食安全和碳减排问题不能孤立,实现耦合协调发展是农业可持续发展的关键。本研究采用耦合协调模型和动态定性比较分析(动态QCA)方法,测算了2010-2021年我国31个省份粮食安全指数(FSI)和农业碳排放效率(ACEE)的耦合协调度(CCD),寻求气候智慧型农业技术实现高度耦合协调的路径。外部环境,和激励维度,并模拟各种CSA优先级场景下的路径选择差异。结果表明,中国FSI和ACEE的CCD逐年增加,区域差异显著,主要体现在东北>东部>西部>中部地区。根据CSA的方向,提出了“技术-环境保障”联动路径和“技术-环境-激励”混合路径。不同地区的CSA实践存在差异,这需要基于其独特的社会经济定制,生态,和政治景观。当优先事项有利于粮食安全时,“技术-环境-激励”混合途径支持高CCD,随着优先事项的增加,CSA技术的贡献,以节水灌溉为中心,增加,外部环境的作用减弱。当优先趋势是减少排放时,两种路径都可以实现高CCD。随着碳排放的优先趋势增加,城市化和CSA技术,如节水灌溉和秸秆还田,成为促进更高耦合协调的重要因素,农业相关财政支出的作用减弱。这些发现为保障粮食安全和低碳农业提供了政策支持。
    Owing to the contradiction between agricultural production and environmental development, the issues of food security and carbon mitigation cannot be isolated, and achieving coupled and coordinated development is the key to agricultural sustainability. This study adopted the coupled coordination model and dynamic qualitative comparative analysis (dynamic QCA) method to measure the coupled coordination degree (CCD) of the food security index (FSI) and agricultural carbon emission efficiency (ACEE) in 31 provinces of China from 2010 to 2021, seeking paths to achieve high coupled coordination from Climate-Smart Agriculture technology, external environment, and incentive dimensions, and simulating path selection differences under various CSA priority scenarios. The results indicated that the CCD of the FSI and ACEE in China significantly increased year-on-year increase, with significant regional differences primarily reflected in the Northeast > East > West > Central regions. Based on the CSA orientation, the \"technology-environmental safeguard\" linkage path and the \"technology-environment-incentive\" hybrid path are proposed. There are differences in CSA practices across regions, which require customization based on their unique socioeconomic, ecological, and political landscapes. When priorities favour food security, the \"technology-environment-incentive\" hybrid pathway supports high CCD, and as priorities increase, the contribution of CSA technologies, centred on water-saving irrigation, increases and the role of the external environment diminishes. When the priority tendency is to mitigate emissions, both paths can achieve high CCD. As the priority tendency for carbon emissions increases, urbanisation and CSA technologies such as water-saving irrigation and straw return become essential factors contributing to higher coupling coordination, and the role of agriculture-related financial expenditures diminishes. These findings provide policy support for safeguarding food security and low-carbon agriculture.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    研究碳交易对绿色技术创新的多因子联动效应,本文采用动态QCA分析方法,采用中国碳交易试点地区的面板数据。目的是探索考虑时间效应的因果路径。此外,应用Kruskal-Wallis秩和检验来调查配置的省级覆盖差异,并从空间维度揭示区域之间配置偏好的变化。结果表明,单一因素并不构成高绿色技术创新“数量”和“质量”的必要条件。然而,碳交易价格的必要性多年来呈现下降趋势,证明了时间效应的存在。关于条件配置的充分性分析,它主要包括“价格-市场规模”双重效应模型和单一市场规模效应模型,每个模型有三个配置路径。其中,“价格-市场规模”双重效应模型可以通过碳交易价格推动绿色技术创新数量的增加,市场规模,政府干预程度,和其他因素。单一市场规模效应模式可以推动绿色技术创新高质量发展,但碳交易价格对绿色技术创新质量的影响相对不大。在时间维度上,这三种配置在正常情况下仍然对绿色技术创新保持良好的适用性。然而,当考虑空间维度时,三种配置的覆盖分布表现出明显的区域差异。本研究首次将动态面板QCA方法引入研究领域。它解决了传统QCA方法的局限性,受横截面数据的约束,缺乏探索因素间随时间变化的联动效应的能力。此外,该研究分析了碳交易价格和市场规模对绿色技术创新的“数量”和“质量”的影响,同时考虑时间和空间维度,从配置的角度来看。
    To study the multi-factor linkage effect of carbon trading on green technology innovation, this paper employs the dynamic QCA analysis method and uses panel data from China\'s carbon trading pilot areas. The aim is to explore the causal path considering the time effect. Additionally, the Kruskal-Wallis rank sum test is applied to investigate the provincial coverage difference of the configuration and reveal the variation in configuration preferences between regions from a spatial dimension. The results indicate that a single factor alone does not constitute the necessary conditions for the \"quantity\" and \"quality\" of high-green technology innovation. However, the necessity of carbon trading price exhibits a declining trend over the years, demonstrating the presence of a time effect. Regarding the sufficiency analysis of conditional configuration, it mainly includes a \"price-market scale\" dual effect model and a single market scale effect model, with three configuration paths for each model. Among them, the \"price-market scale\" dual effect model can drive the increase in the quantity of green technology innovation through carbon trading price, market scale, government intervention degree, and other factors. The single market scale effect model can promote the high-quality development of green technology innovation, but the impact of carbon trading price on the quality of green technology innovation is relatively insignificant. In terms of the time dimension, the three configurations still maintain good applicability to green technology innovation under normal conditions. However, when considering the spatial dimension, the coverage distribution of the three configurations exhibits evident regional differences. This study introduces the dynamic panel QCA method into the research field for the first time. It addresses the limitations of the traditional QCA method, which is constrained by cross-section data and lacks the ability to explore the linkage effect between factors over time. Additionally, the study analyzes the effects of carbon trading price and market size on the \"quantity\" and \"quality\" of green technology innovation, considering both time and space dimensions, from a configuration perspective.
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