Coupled coordination model

  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    由于农业生产与环境发展的矛盾,粮食安全和碳减排问题不能孤立,实现耦合协调发展是农业可持续发展的关键。本研究采用耦合协调模型和动态定性比较分析(动态QCA)方法,测算了2010-2021年我国31个省份粮食安全指数(FSI)和农业碳排放效率(ACEE)的耦合协调度(CCD),寻求气候智慧型农业技术实现高度耦合协调的路径。外部环境,和激励维度,并模拟各种CSA优先级场景下的路径选择差异。结果表明,中国FSI和ACEE的CCD逐年增加,区域差异显著,主要体现在东北>东部>西部>中部地区。根据CSA的方向,提出了“技术-环境保障”联动路径和“技术-环境-激励”混合路径。不同地区的CSA实践存在差异,这需要基于其独特的社会经济定制,生态,和政治景观。当优先事项有利于粮食安全时,“技术-环境-激励”混合途径支持高CCD,随着优先事项的增加,CSA技术的贡献,以节水灌溉为中心,增加,外部环境的作用减弱。当优先趋势是减少排放时,两种路径都可以实现高CCD。随着碳排放的优先趋势增加,城市化和CSA技术,如节水灌溉和秸秆还田,成为促进更高耦合协调的重要因素,农业相关财政支出的作用减弱。这些发现为保障粮食安全和低碳农业提供了政策支持。
    Owing to the contradiction between agricultural production and environmental development, the issues of food security and carbon mitigation cannot be isolated, and achieving coupled and coordinated development is the key to agricultural sustainability. This study adopted the coupled coordination model and dynamic qualitative comparative analysis (dynamic QCA) method to measure the coupled coordination degree (CCD) of the food security index (FSI) and agricultural carbon emission efficiency (ACEE) in 31 provinces of China from 2010 to 2021, seeking paths to achieve high coupled coordination from Climate-Smart Agriculture technology, external environment, and incentive dimensions, and simulating path selection differences under various CSA priority scenarios. The results indicated that the CCD of the FSI and ACEE in China significantly increased year-on-year increase, with significant regional differences primarily reflected in the Northeast > East > West > Central regions. Based on the CSA orientation, the \"technology-environmental safeguard\" linkage path and the \"technology-environment-incentive\" hybrid path are proposed. There are differences in CSA practices across regions, which require customization based on their unique socioeconomic, ecological, and political landscapes. When priorities favour food security, the \"technology-environment-incentive\" hybrid pathway supports high CCD, and as priorities increase, the contribution of CSA technologies, centred on water-saving irrigation, increases and the role of the external environment diminishes. When the priority tendency is to mitigate emissions, both paths can achieve high CCD. As the priority tendency for carbon emissions increases, urbanisation and CSA technologies such as water-saving irrigation and straw return become essential factors contributing to higher coupling coordination, and the role of agriculture-related financial expenditures diminishes. These findings provide policy support for safeguarding food security and low-carbon agriculture.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    We built a comprehensive evaluation index system of urbanization in Chengdu-Chongqing (Cheng-Yu) urban agglomeration from four subsystems, including the economic, social, ecological, and urban and rural coordination. The comprehensive evaluation index system of eco-environment was constructed by combining ecological environment carrying capacity and ecological flexibi-lity. The coupling coordination degree model was applied to quantify the coupling coordination degree between urbanization and eco-environment in the prefecture-level cities of Cheng-Yu urban agglo-meration from 2005 to 2018. With GIS spatial analysis, phenomenon analysis and Tapio model, we analyzed the interaction type, evolution path and path of decoupling between urbanization and eco-environment in the prefecture-level cities of Cheng-Yu urban agglomeration. The results showed that the urbanization quality of Cheng-Yu urban agglomeration showed a trend of fluctuation and rise during the study period. Both Chengdu and Chongqing as high value areas showed \"double-core\" radia-ting to the surrounding areas. The eco-environment quality showed a slowly rising trend. The spatial pattern was a \" U \" shape with a north opening, high perimeter and low center. The degree of coupling coordination between the urbanization system and the eco-environment system was rising, with a spatial pattern of low in the middle and high in the east and west. The overall level of coupling coordination was relatively high. The type of coupling coordination degree was gradually evolving from near-disorder and reluctant coordination to moderate coordination. The evolution paths of urbanization and eco-environmental interaction were divided into two categories: stable and changing. The stable type included 20 cities in 5 subcategories, with Chengdu, Deyang, Mianyang, etc. being always well-coordination. The change type included 16 cities in 9 subcategories. The coordination degree of Chongqing main urban area, Tongliang and most other cities was improved, showing \"rising\" development. Hechuan, Zigong and a few other cities showed \"sinking\" development. The growth rates of both ecological environment and urbanization were positive. The decoupling state of urbanization and ecological environment was mainly characterized by weak decoupling and expansion connection.
    以成都-重庆(简称成渝)城市群为研究对象,从经济、社会、生态和城乡协调4个子系统构建城镇化综合评价指标体系,将生态环境承载力和生态弹性结合构建生态环境综合评价指标体系,应用耦合协调度模型测度2005—2018年成渝城市群各地级市城镇化与生态环境的耦合协调度,借助GIS空间分析法、象限分析法和Tapio模型,分析成渝城市群各地级市城镇化与生态环境交互作用的类型、演化路径及其解耦路径。结果表明: 研究期间,成渝城市群的城镇化质量呈现波动上升趋势,以成都、重庆为高值区呈“双核”向四周辐射;生态环境质量缓慢提升,呈四周高、中部低,开口向北的“U”型空间格局。城镇化系统和生态环境系统耦合协调水平较高,总体呈上升的趋势,协调类型由以濒临失调和勉强协调为主逐渐向以中度协调为主演变,呈现中部低、东西高的空间格局。城镇化与生态环境交互作用的演化路径呈现稳定型和变化型2个大类。稳定型包括5个亚类20个城市,成都、德阳、绵阳等城市始终是良好协调型;变化型包括9个亚类16个城市,重庆主城区、铜梁等多数城市的协调度提升,呈“上升式”发展;合川、自贡等少数城市呈“下沉式”发展。生态环境增长率和城镇化增长率均为正,城镇化与生态环境的解耦路径以弱脱钩和扩张连接为主。.
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