Abstract：
Understanding and predicting population responses to climate change is a crucial challenge. A key component of population responses to climate change are cases in which focal biological rates (e.g., population growth rates) change in response to climate change due to non-compensatory effects of changes in the underlying components (e.g., birth and death rates) determining the focal rates. We refer to these responses as non-compensatory climate change effects. As differential responses of biological rates to climate change have been documented in a variety of systems and arise at multiple levels of organization within and across species, non-compensatory effects may be nearly ubiquitous. Yet, how non-compensatory climate change responses combine and scale to influence the demographics of populations is often unclear and requires mapping them to the birth and death rates underlying population change. We provide a flexible framework for incorporating non-compensatory changes in upstream rates within and among species and mapping their consequences for additional downstream rates across scales to their eventual effects on population growth rates. Throughout, we provide specific examples and potential applications of the framework. We hope this framework helps to enhance our understanding of and unify research on population responses to climate change.
摘要：
了解和预测人口对气候变化的反应是一项至关重要的挑战。人口对气候变化的反应的一个关键组成部分是局灶性生物率(例如，人口增长率)由于潜在组成部分变化的非补偿效应而对气候变化的响应变化(例如，出生率和死亡率)确定病灶率。我们将这些反应称为非补偿性气候变化效应。由于生物速率对气候变化的不同反应已记录在各种系统中，并出现在物种内部和物种之间的多个组织级别，非补偿性效应可能几乎无处不在。然而，非补偿性气候变化应对措施如何结合和规模影响人口的人口统计通常不清楚，需要将它们映射到人口变化的出生率和死亡率。我们提供了一个灵活的框架，用于将物种内部和物种之间的上游汇率的非补偿性变化纳入其中，并绘制其对跨尺度的额外下游汇率的影响，以最终影响人口增长率。在整个过程中,我们提供了该框架的具体示例和潜在应用。我们希望这一框架有助于加强我们对人口应对气候变化的理解和统一研究。
