Abstract：
Optimizing crop distribution stands as a pivotal approach to climate change adaption, enhancing crop production sustainability, and has been recognized for its immense potential in ensuring food security while minimizing environmental impacts. Here, we developed a climate-adaptive framework to optimize the distribution of staple crops (i.e., wheat, maize, and rice) to meet the multi-dimensional needs of crop production in China. The framework considers the feasibility of the multiple cropping systems (harvesting more than once on a cropland a year) and adopts a multi-dimensional approach, incorporating goals related to crop production, water consumption, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. By optimizing, the total irrigated area of three crops would decrease by 7.7 % accompanied by a substantial 69.8 % increase in rain-fed areas compared to the baseline in 2010. This optimized strategy resulted in a notable 10.0 % reduction in total GHG emissions and a 13.1 % decrease in irrigation water consumption while maintaining consistent crop production levels. In 2030, maintaining the existing crop distribution and relying solely on yield growth would lead to a significant maize production shortfall of 27.0 %, highlighting a looming challenge. To address this concern, strategic adjustments were made by reducing irrigated areas for wheat, rice, and maize by 2.3 %, 12.8 %, and 6.1 %, respectively, while simultaneously augmenting rain-fed areas for wheat and maize by 120.2 % and 55.9 %, respectively. These modifications ensure that production demands for all three crops are met, while yielding a 6.9 % reduction in GHG emissions and a 15.1 % reduction in irrigation water consumption. This optimization strategy offers a promising solution to alleviate severe water scarcity issues and secure a sustainable agricultural future, effectively adapting to evolving crop production demands in China.
摘要：
优化作物分布是适应气候变化的关键方法，提高作物生产的可持续性，并因其在确保粮食安全同时最大限度地减少环境影响方面的巨大潜力而得到认可。这里,我们开发了一个气候适应性框架来优化主食作物的分布(即，小麦,玉米,和米饭)，希望能满足我国农作物生产的多维需求。该框架考虑了多种种植系统（每年在农田上收获不止一次）的可行性，并采用了多维方法，纳入与作物生产相关的目标，用水量,温室气体（GHG）排放。通过优化，与2010年的基线相比，三种作物的总灌溉面积将减少7.7％，同时雨水灌溉面积将大幅增加69.8％。这种优化的策略导致温室气体排放总量显着减少了10.0％，灌溉用水量减少了13.1％，同时保持了一致的作物生产水平。到2030年，维持现有的作物分布并仅依靠产量增长将导致玉米产量显着下降27.0％，突出了一个迫在眉睫的挑战。为了解决这一问题，通过减少小麦灌溉面积进行了战略调整，大米,玉米下降2.3%，12.8%,和6.1%，分别,同时使小麦和玉米的雨养面积增加了120.2％和55.9％，分别。这些修改确保满足所有三种作物的生产需求，同时温室气体排放量减少6.9%，灌溉用水量减少15.1%。这种优化策略提供了一个有希望的解决方案，以缓解严重的水资源短缺问题，并确保可持续的农业未来，有效地适应中国不断变化的作物生产需求。
