%0 Journal Article
%T Climate-adaptive crop distribution can feed food demand, improve water scarcity, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
%A Su Z
%A Zhao J
%A Zhuang M
%A Liu Z
%A Zhao C
%A Pullens JWM
%A Liu K
%A Harrison MT
%A Yang X
%J Sci Total Environ
%V 944
%N 0
%D 2024 Sep 20
%M 38857807
%F 10.753
%R 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173819
%X Optimizing crop distribution stands as a pivotal approach to climate change adaption, enhancing crop production sustainability, and has been recognized for its immense potential in ensuring food security while minimizing environmental impacts. Here, we developed a climate-adaptive framework to optimize the distribution of staple crops (i.e., wheat, maize, and rice) to meet the multi-dimensional needs of crop production in China. The framework considers the feasibility of the multiple cropping systems (harvesting more than once on a cropland a year) and adopts a multi-dimensional approach, incorporating goals related to crop production, water consumption, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. By optimizing, the total irrigated area of three crops would decrease by 7.7 % accompanied by a substantial 69.8 % increase in rain-fed areas compared to the baseline in 2010. This optimized strategy resulted in a notable 10.0 % reduction in total GHG emissions and a 13.1 % decrease in irrigation water consumption while maintaining consistent crop production levels. In 2030, maintaining the existing crop distribution and relying solely on yield growth would lead to a significant maize production shortfall of 27.0 %, highlighting a looming challenge. To address this concern, strategic adjustments were made by reducing irrigated areas for wheat, rice, and maize by 2.3 %, 12.8 %, and 6.1 %, respectively, while simultaneously augmenting rain-fed areas for wheat and maize by 120.2 % and 55.9 %, respectively. These modifications ensure that production demands for all three crops are met, while yielding a 6.9 % reduction in GHG emissions and a 15.1 % reduction in irrigation water consumption. This optimization strategy offers a promising solution to alleviate severe water scarcity issues and secure a sustainable agricultural future, effectively adapting to evolving crop production demands in China.