哥伦比亚的农业部门由于拥有丰富的耕地而支持国民经济和粮食安全。尽管哥伦比亚拥有广阔的水文盆地,气候变化会影响农业生产力,产生经济和社会不利影响。为此,我们使用生产评估了一些环境变量对销售最多的作物生产的影响,气候,和2007年至2020年1121个直辖市的水文数据。我们模拟了咖啡的生产,大米,棕榈油,甘蔗,还有玉米,采用贝叶斯时空模型,该模型涉及一组环境变量:平均温度,最低温度,最高温度,蒸散,降水,径流,土壤湿度,蒸气压力,辐射,和风速。我们发现,平均温度的升高会影响咖啡(每°C-0.2%),大米(-3.76%/°C),和甘蔗(每°C-0.19%)产量,同时,这些增加可以促进哥伦比亚的棕榈油(每°C+2.55%)和玉米(每°C+1.28%)产量。这一声明意味着农业部门需要替代土地利用,促进棕榈油和玉米的生产。虽然我们的结果没有发现水文变量对任何作物的显著影响,这表明哥伦比亚的水资源丰富可能会平衡这些变量的影响。蒸汽压力的增加对所有作物产生负面影响(每千帕-11.2%至-0.43%),除了大米,证明干燥的空气条件会影响农业生产。哥伦比亚必须管理传统产品的生产地点,并实施农用工业技术,以避免气候变化对作物的影响。
The agricultural sector of Colombia supports the national economy and food security due to the rich lands for cultivation. Although Colombia has a vast hydrological basin, climate change can impact agricultural productivity, generating economic and social adverse effects. For this, we evaluated the impact of some environmental variables on the production of the most sold crops using production, climatic, and hydrological data of the 1121 municipalities from 2007 to 2020. We modeled the production of coffee, rice, palm oil, sugarcane, and corn, adopting a Bayesian spatio-temporal model that involved a set of environmental variables: average temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, evapotranspiration, precipitation, runoff, soil moisture, vapor pressure, radiation, and wind speed. We found that increases in the average temperatures can affect coffee (-0.2% per °C), rice (-3.76% per °C), and sugarcane (-0.19% per °C) production, meanwhile, these increases can boost palm oil (+2.55% per °C) and corn (+1.28% per °C) production in Colombia. This statement implies that the agricultural sector needs to substitute land use, promoting the production of palm oil and corn. Although our results did not find a significant effect of hydrological variables in any crop, suggesting that the abundance of water in Colombia might balance the impact of these variables. The increases in vapor pressure impact all the crops negatively (between -11.2% to -0.43% per kPa), except rice, evidencing that dry air conditions affect agricultural production. Colombia must manage the production location of the traditional products and implement agro-industrial technologies to avoid the climate change impact on crops.