Abstract：
The present investigation was aimed at predicting a still (i.e., dead) vs. live embryo within a hatching goose egg by measuring the eggshell cooling rate. For this, we daily measured the temperature (T) values on the shell surface of goose eggs after they were removed from the incubator and during further natural cooling. T was recorded every 0.5 h for further 1.5 h of cooling. It was possible to recognize eggs with dead embryos using the combination of T, egg weight (W), and surface area (S). The resultant indicator (TS/W) was called specific temperature index (STI). The mathematical relationship using STI measurements between Days 8-13 facilitated 80 % correct identification of the eggs with dead embryos. Additionally, we derived mathematical dependencies for shell weight (Ws) and thickness (t) by utilizing the values of W, egg volume (V), S, the average T of all measurements taken, as well as the drop in T during 1.5 h of natural cooling. The key advantage of these parameters was their measurement and/or calculation by applying non-destructive methods. The integrated application of these parameters resulted in achieving high calculation accuracy as judged by correlation coefficients of 0.908 for Ws and 0.593 for t. These novel mathematical models have the potential to decrease hatching waste by predicting embryo viability. Our research will add to a toolkit for non-invasive egg assessment that is useful in the poultry industry, research on eggs, and engineering.
摘要：
目前的调查旨在预测静止(即，死亡)与通过测量蛋壳冷却速率，在孵化鹅卵中的活胚胎。为此，我们每天测量鹅卵从培养箱中取出后和进一步自然冷却过程中鹅卵壳表面的温度（T）值。每0.5h记录T,再冷却1.5h。使用T的组合可以识别带有死亡胚胎的卵子，鸡蛋重量（W），和表面积(S)。所得的指标(TS/W)称为比温度指数(STI)。在第8-13天之间使用STI测量的数学关系促进了具有死亡胚胎的卵的80%正确识别。此外,我们利用W的值推导了壳重(Ws)和厚度(t)的数学相关性，卵体积（V），S,所有测量值的平均值T,以及在1.5小时的自然冷却过程中T的下降。这些参数的关键优势是通过应用非破坏性方法进行测量和/或计算。这些参数的综合应用导致实现了较高的计算精度，如Ws的相关系数为0.908，t的相关系数为0.593。这些新颖的数学模型具有通过预测胚胎生存力来减少孵化废物的潜力。我们的研究将增加一个工具包，用于对家禽业有用的非侵入性卵评估，对鸡蛋的研究,和工程。
