PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
African Swine Fever (ASF) disease transmission parameters are crucial for making response and control decisions when faced with an outbreak, yet they are poorly quantified for smallholder and village contexts within Southeast Asia. Whilst disease-specific factors - such as latent and infectious periods - should remain reasonably consistent, host, environmental and management factors are likely to affect the rate of disease spread. These differences are investigated using Approximate Bayesian Computation with Sequential Monte-Carlo methods to provide disease parameter estimates in four naïve pig populations in villages of Lao People\'s Democratic Republic. The villages represent smallholder pig farmers of the Northern province of Oudomxay and the Southern province of Savannakhet, and the model utilised field mortality data to validate the transmission parameter estimates over the course of multiple model generations. The basic reproductive number between-pigs was estimated to range from 3.08 to 7.80, whilst the latent and infectious periods were consistent with those published in the literature for similar genotypes in the region (4.72 to 6.19 days and 2.63 to 5.50 days, respectively). These findings demonstrate that smallholder village pigs interact similarly to commercial pigs, however the spread of disease may occur slightly slower than in commercial study groups. Furthermore, the findings demonstrated that despite diversity across the study groups, the disease behaved in a consistent manner. This data can be used in disease control programs or for future modelling of ASF in smallholder contexts.
摘要：
非洲猪瘟（ASF）疾病传播参数对于在面对疫情时做出反应和控制决策至关重要。然而，它们在东南亚的小农和村庄环境中的量化很差。虽然疾病特异性因素-如潜伏期和感染期-应保持合理的一致性，host,环境和管理因素可能会影响疾病传播的速度。使用近似贝叶斯计算和顺序蒙特卡罗方法研究了这些差异，以提供老挝人民民主共和国村庄四个幼稚猪种群的疾病参数估计。这些村庄代表了北部Oudomxay省和南部Savannakhet省的小农养猪户，并且该模型利用现场死亡率数据来验证多个模型生成过程中的传输参数估计。猪之间的基本繁殖数量估计在3.08至7.80之间，而潜伏期和感染期与该地区类似基因型文献中发表的文献一致（4.72至6.19天和2.63至5.50天，分别)。这些发现表明，小农村猪与商品猪的相互作用相似，然而，疾病的传播可能比商业研究组稍慢。此外，研究结果表明，尽管研究小组存在多样性，这种疾病的表现是一致的。此数据可用于疾病控制计划或未来在小农环境中对ASF进行建模。
