Abstract：
The government of Kenya introduced the Excisable Goods Management System (EGMS) in November 2013, which is a form of Track and Trace Systems (TTSs) for excisable goods, including cigarettes and cigars. This study appraised the EGMS with a focus on its impact on cigarette and cigars excise tax revenue and possibly control of related illicit trade in Kenya. Illicit trade in cigarettes and cigars pose significant health risks owing to increased access to tobacco products, besides contributing to loss of government revenues. The study utilised an Interrupted Time Series Analysis (ITSA) to assess impacts of the EGMS on monthly cigarette and cigars real excise tax revenue over the period April 2013 to March 2017. The results show that the difference between the pre-intervention and post-intervention slopes of the real excise tax revenue was positive and statistically significant, suggesting a change in excise tax revenue trends. The hypothesis of an immediate level change in excise tax revenue was however not supported, possibly due to the initial implementation challenges that dampened a \'jump\' in real excise tax revenue. These findings suggest that TTSs need to be complemented by sustained efforts to achieve maximum compliance levels and impact in both the short term and the long term.
摘要：
肯尼亚政府于2013年11月推出了可切除货物管理系统（EGMS），这是一种用于可切除货物的跟踪和跟踪系统（TTS）。包括香烟和雪茄。这项研究评估了EGMS，重点是其对卷烟和雪茄消费税收入的影响，以及对肯尼亚相关非法贸易的控制。由于获得烟草产品的机会增加，香烟和雪茄的非法贸易对健康构成重大风险。除了导致政府收入损失。该研究利用了中断时间序列分析（ITSA）来评估EGMS对2013年4月至2017年3月期间每月卷烟和雪茄实际消费税收入的影响。结果表明,实际消费税收入干预前和干预后斜率的差异为正,具有统计学意义,表明消费税收入趋势的变化。然而，消费税收入立即水平变化的假设没有得到支持，可能是由于最初的实施挑战抑制了实际消费税收入的“跳跃”。这些发现表明，TTS需要通过持续努力来补充，以实现短期和长期的最大合规水平和影响。
