背景:烟草业声称烟草税是智利非法贸易增加的原因,他们估计2022年为37%。然而,香烟消费的演变,根据人口调查估计,和纳税卷烟显示,自2018年以来,非法贸易的渗透率下降。
方法:使用差距分析来估计非法贸易的演变,其基础是算术身份,表明在给定时期内全国卷烟总消费量等于已登记的消费量,即纳税额加上全国消费的卷烟不纳税。
结果:2020年智利的非法贸易渗透率约为10%,不到烟草业声称的一半。此外,香烟实际价格的演变,使用税收数据计算,表明扣除烟草税的实际价格在2015-2021年期间大幅增长,烟草税没有变化。最便宜的香烟,可能与非法香烟竞争,价格涨幅最大。
结论:关于在智利增加非法贸易渗透的说法是没有根据的,也没有关于消费和纳税卷烟的数据支持。
BACKGROUND: The tobacco industry claims that tobacco taxes are responsible for increased illicit trade in Chile, which they estimated at 37% in 2022. However, the evolution of cigarette consumption, estimated from population surveys, and of tax-paying cigarettes shows a decreasing penetration of illicit trade since 2018.
METHODS: A gap analysis was used to estimate the evolution of illicit trade based on an arithmetic identity stating that total national cigarette consumption over a given period is equal to the registered consumption as paying taxes plus the cigarettes that are consumed nationally without paying taxes.
RESULTS: Illicit trade penetration in Chile was around 10% in 2020, less than half of what the tobacco industry claimed. In addition, the evolution of real prices of cigarettes, calculated using tax collection data, indicates that real prices net of tobacco taxes increased significantly during 2015-2021, a period with no changes in tobacco taxation. The cheapest cigarettes, presumably competing with illicit cigarettes, registered the most significant price increase.
CONCLUSIONS: Claims of increasing illicit trade penetration in Chile are unfounded and are not supported by data on consumption and tax-paying cigarettes.