■阳泉市疾病预防控制中心,中国,针对卡拉-阿扎尔疫情日益增多的趋势,采取了一系列的防控措施。作为回应,我们提出了一个新的模型来更科学地评估这些干预措施的有效性.
■我们从阳泉市疾病预防控制中心(CDC)获得了2017年至2021年Kala-Azar的发病率数据。我们构建了泊松分段回归模型,谐波泊松分段回归模型,和改进的谐波泊松分段回归模型,并使用这三种模型来解释干预效果,分别。最后,通过比较三种模型的拟合效果,选择最优模型。
■初步分析显示干预前Kala-Azar有潜在的上升趋势[发生率比(IRR):1.045,95%置信区间(CI):1.027-1.063,p<0.001]。就长期影响而言,干预后Kala-Azar的上升显着放缓(IRR:0.960,95CI:0.927-0.995,p=0.026),干预后每增加一个月,Kala-Azar的风险增加0.3%(β1β3=0.003,IRR=1.003)。模型拟合效果的结果表明,改进的谐波泊松分段回归模型拟合效果最好,和MSE的值,MAE,RMSE最低,分别为0.017、0.101和0.130。
■从长远来看,阳泉市疾控中心采取的干预措施可以很好地遏制Kala-Azar的上升趋势。改进的谐波泊松分段回归模型具有更高的拟合性能,为季节性传染病干预效果的评价提供一定的科学参考。
UNASSIGNED: The Centre for Disease Control and Prevention in Yangquan, China, has taken a series of preventive and control measures in response to the increasing trend of Kala-Azar. In response, we propose a new model to more scientifically evaluate the effectiveness of these interventions.
UNASSIGNED: We obtained the incidence data of Kala-Azar from 2017 to 2021 from the Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in Yangquan. We constructed Poisson segmented regression model, harmonic Poisson segmental regression model, and improved harmonic Poisson segmented regression model, and used the three models to explain the intervention effect, respectively. Finally, we selected the optimal model by comparing the fitting effects of the three models.
UNASSIGNED: The primary analysis showed an underlying upward trend of Kala-Azar before intervention [incidence rate ratio (IRR): 1.045, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.027-1.063, p < 0.001]. In terms of long-term effects, the rise of Kala-Azar slowed down significantly after the intervention (IRR:0.960, 95%CI:0.927-0.995, p = 0.026), and the risk of Kala-Azar increased by 0.3% for each additional month after intervention (β1 + β3 = 0.003, IRR = 1.003). The results of the model fitting effect showed that the improved harmonic Poisson segmental regression model had the best fitting effect, and the values of MSE, MAE, and RMSE were the lowest, which were 0.017, 0.101, and 0.130, respectively.
UNASSIGNED: In the long term, the intervention measures taken by the Yangquan CDC can well curb the upward trend of Kala-Azar. The improved harmonic Poisson segmented regression model has higher fitting performance, which can provide a certain scientific reference for the evaluation of the intervention effect of seasonal infectious diseases.