Abstract：
The disparities between Pakistan\'s survey statistics which undercount and services which overestimate contributed to the impetus to develop indirect estimates of contraceptive use in 1975 and 1984 using m values in the polynomial regression equation. In 1975, the Couple Years Protection (CYP) was used and 1985 the Component Projection Approach of the UN. The suggested improvement is the use of PGE longitudinal and Chandra and Deming method with the PFSS fertility schedule, which meets the Coale and Trussell standards (the 1975 PFS values was a near perfect fit with a mean value of 0, and the 1985 estimated schedule was mediocre and the PGE mediocre to poor.). The methodology involved comparing indirect estimates of contraceptive use with estimates from service statistics and surveys. Coale\'s model of marital fertility is explained with natural fertility at age (a) and the logarithmic departure from natural fertility derived from averaging empirical data. In converting the degree of deliberate marital fertility control in a population (m) as an independent variable and the scale factors indicating the level of fertility with respect to average natural fertility (M), 2 second degree polynomial regression equations were generated. The results were that in equation 1 where Y = 87.637(x) - 26.873(x)squared, the estimated use in 1975 was 20.5 with an m value of .254 compared to 5.3% reported use and 16.8% service statistics use; underreporting is apparent. Equation 2 where Y = 86.776(x)- 27.286(x)squared use is 20.3% with an m value of .254 and the increase in variance explained by .98. The contraceptive use estimate of 20% is substantiated also by Nortman (1982) and Lee and Lucas (1986), who said that a Crude Birth Rate of 40 per 1000 corresponds to a prevalence rate of around 20%. The 1985 contraceptive use value of equation 1 and 2 were 20.7 and 20.4 respectively with m values of .256.
摘要：
巴基斯坦的调查统计数据被低估与高估的服务之间的差异促成了使用多项式回归方程中的m值对1975年和1984年的避孕药具使用进行间接估计的动力。1975年，使用了夫妇年保护（CYP），1985年使用了联合国的分量投影方法。建议的改进是使用PGE纵向和Chandra和Deming方法与PFSS生育时间表，符合Coale和Trussell标准（1975PFS值接近完美，平均值为0，1985年估计的时间表平庸，PGE平庸到差。).该方法涉及将避孕药具使用的间接估计与服务统计和调查的估计进行比较。Coale的婚姻生育率模型用年龄（a）的自然生育率和从平均经验数据得出的自然生育率的对数偏离来解释。将人口中有意的婚姻生育率控制程度（m）转换为自变量，并将指示生育率水平相对于平均自然生育率（M）的比例因子转换为独立变量，生成了2次多项式回归方程。结果是，在方程1中，Y=87.637(x)-26.873(x)的平方，1975年的估计使用量为20.5，m值为.254，而报告使用量为5.3％，服务统计数据使用量为16.8％；漏报是明显的。等式2，其中Y=86.776（x）-27.286（x）的平方使用为20.3％，m值为.254，方差的增加由.98解释。20％的避孕药具使用估计也得到了诺特曼（1982）和李和卢卡斯（1986）的证实，他说，每1000人中40人的粗出生率相当于20%左右的患病率。方程1和2的1985年避孕药具使用值分别为20.7和20.4，m值为.256。
