Abundance estimation is frequently an objective of conservation and monitoring initiatives for threatened and other managed populations. While abundance estimation via capture-mark-recapture or spatially explicit capture-recapture is now common, such approaches are logistically challenging and expensive for species such as boreal caribou (Rangifer tarandus), which inhabit remote regions, are widely dispersed, and exist at low densities. Fortunately, the recently developed \'close-kin mark-recapture\' (CKMR) framework, which uses the number of kin pairs obtained within a sample to generate an abundance estimate, eliminates the need for multiple sampling events. As a result, some caribou managers are interested in using this method to generate an abundance estimate from a single, non-invasive sampling event for caribou populations. We conducted a simulation study using realistic boreal caribou demographic rates and population sizes to assess how population size and the proportion of the population surveyed impact the accuracy and precision of single-survey CKMR-based abundance estimates. Our results indicated that abundance estimates were biased and highly imprecise when very small proportions of the population were sampled, regardless of the population size. However, the larger the population size, the smaller the required proportion of the population surveyed to generate both accurate and reasonably precise estimates. Additionally, we also present a case study in which we used the CKMR framework to generate annual female abundance estimates for a small caribou population in Jasper National Park, Alberta, Canada, from 2006 to 2015 and compared them to existing published capture-mark-recapture-based estimates. Both the accuracy and precision of the annual CKMR-based abundance estimates varied across years and were sensitive to the proportion of pairwise kinship comparisons which yielded a mother-offspring pair. Taken together, our study demonstrates that it is possible to generate CKMR-based abundance estimates from a single sampling event for small caribou populations, so long as a sufficient sampling intensity can be achieved.

It is well known that highly inbred dogs are more prone to diseases than less inbred or outbred dogs. This is because inbreeding increases the load of recessive deleterious variants. Using the genomes of 392 dogs belonging to 83 breeds, we investigated the association between the abundance of homozygous deleterious variants and dog health. We used the number of non-routine veterinary care events for each breed to assess the level of morbidity. Our results revealed a highly significant positive relationship between the number of homozygous deleterious variants located within the runs of homozygosity (RoH) tracts of the breeds and the level of morbidity. The dog breeds with low morbidity had a mean of 87 deleterious SNVs within the RoH, but those with very high morbidity had 187 SNVs. A highly significant correlation was also observed for the loss-of-function (LoF) SNVs within RoH tracts. The dog breeds that required more veterinary care had 2.3 times more homozygous LoF SNVs than those that required less veterinary care (112 vs. 50). The results of this study could be useful for understanding the disease burden on breed dogs and as a guide for dog breeding programs.

Genetic drift, gene flow, and natural selection commonly influence population genetic diversity. In populations of self-compatible hermaphrodites, the mating system (e.g., self-fertilization) further reduces individual heterozygosity. Furthermore, selfing, as a form of inbreeding, significantly impacts genetic drift by reducing effective population size (N e). This can potentially accelerate genetic drift, particularly in small populations where self-fertilization is likely during founder events. To investigate the roles of genetic drift and contemporary mating system in populations of the freshwater snail Lymnaea stagnalis, we examined their effective population sizes (N e) and Tajima\'s D values, which reflect genetic drift over extended time periods, as well as estimates of within-population selfing rates and pairwise relatedness reflecting contemporary mating system. We used 4054 SNP markers obtained using restriction site associated DNA (RAD) sequencing from individuals in five snail populations originating from geographically closely located ponds. We found strong population genetic structure and differences in genetic diversity among populations. Covariation between genetic diversity and N e estimates and Tajima\'s D values suggested drift being an important determinant of genetic diversity and structure in these populations. However, this effect was independent of the contemporary mating system, as indicated by the similarity of selfing rates and relatedness estimates among populations. Thus, founder events (possibly including historical inbreeding) and/or drift due to small sizes of L. stagnalis populations are likely to explain their genetic structure and limit within-population genetic diversity.

Understanding which factors shape and maintain biodiversity is essential to understand how ecosystems respond to crises. Biodiversity observed in ecological communities is a result of the interaction of various factors which can be classified as either neutral- or niche-based. The importance of these processes has been debated, but many scientists believe that both processes are important. Here, we use unique ecosystems in groundwater-filled lava caves near Lake Mývatn, to examine the importance of neutral- versus niche-based factors for shaping invertebrate communities. We studied diversity in benthic and epibenthic invertebrate communities and related them to ecological variables. We hypothesized that if neutral processes are the main drivers of community structure we would not see any clear relationship between the structure of community within caves and ecological factors. If niche-based processes are important we should see clear relationships between community structure and variation in ecological variables across caves. Both communities were species poor, with low densities of invertebrates, showing the resource limited and oligotrophic nature of these systems. Unusually for Icelandic freshwater ecosystems, the benthic communities were not dominated by Chironomidae (Diptera) larvae, but rather by crustaceans, mainly Cladocera. The epibenthic communities were not shaped by environmental variables, suggesting that they may have been structured primarily by neutral processes. The benthic communities were shaped by the availability of energy, and to some extent pH, suggesting that niche-based processes were important drivers of community structure, although neutral processes may still be relevant. The results suggest that both processes are important for invertebrate communities in freshwater, and research should focus on understanding both of these processes. The ponds we studied are representative of a number of freshwater ecosystems that are extremely vulnerable for human disturbance, making it even more important to understand how their biodiversity is shaped and maintained.

Genetic diversity underpins evolutionary potential that is essential for the long-term viability of wildlife populations. Captive populations harbor genetic diversity potentially lost in the wild, which could be valuable for release programs and genetic rescue. The Critically Endangered Arabian leopard (Panthera pardus nimr) has disappeared from most of its former range across the Arabian Peninsula, with fewer than 120 individuals left in the wild, and an additional 64 leopards in captivity. We (i) examine genetic diversity in the wild and captive populations to identify global patterns of genetic diversity and structure; (ii) estimate the size of the remaining leopard population across the Dhofar mountains of Oman using spatially explicit capture-recapture models on DNA and camera trap data, and (iii) explore the impact of genetic rescue using three complementary computer modeling approaches. We estimated a population size of 51 (95% CI 32-79) in the Dhofar mountains and found that 8 out of 25 microsatellite alleles present in eight loci in captive leopards were undetected in the wild. This includes two alleles present only in captive founders known to have been wild-sourced from Yemen, which suggests that this captive population represents an important source for genetic rescue. We then assessed the benefits of reintroducing novel genetic diversity into the wild population as well as the risks of elevating the genetic load through the release of captive-bred individuals. Simulations indicate that genetic rescue can improve the long-term viability of the wild population by reducing its genetic load and realized load. The model also suggests that the genetic load has been partly purged in the captive population, potentially making it a valuable source population for genetic rescue. However, the greater loss of its genetic diversity could exacerbate genomic erosion of the wild population during a rescue program, and these risks and benefits should be carefully evaluated. An important next step in the recovery of the Arabian leopard is to empirically validate these conclusions, implement and monitor a genomics-informed management plan, and optimize a strategy for genetic rescue as a tool to recover Arabia\'s last big cat.

In the past, small population sizes and unequal ancestor contributions have resulted in high inbreeding rates (ΔF) in the Friesian horse. Two decades ago, the studbook implemented a mating quota and started publishing individual kinships and reduced ΔF below 1% per generation. However, since then, the breeding population size has decreased and this raises the question whether current breeding strategies are sufficient to keep ΔF below desired rates. The aim of this study was to (1) reflect on past inbreeding trends and their main determinants, using pedigree analysis and (2) evaluate the effectiveness of the current and additional breeding strategies using stochastic simulations. We estimated the current ΔF (2013-2022) at 0.72% per generation. While the total contribution of the top 10 sires to the number of offspring per year has decreased from 75% in 1980 to 35% in 2022, this was mainly due to an increased number of approved studbook sires, and not due to more equalized contributions among sires. Of the simulated breeding strategies, selecting only breeding stallions with a below average mean kinship (i.e., \"mean kinship selection\") was most effective to decrease ΔF (from 0.66% to 0.33%). Increasing the number of breeding sires only had an effect when also a mating quota was applied. However, its effect remained limited. For example, a ~1.5 fold increase, combined with a mating quota of 80 offspring per sire per year, reduced ΔF from 0.55% to 0.51%. When increasing the number of breeding mares, a practically unfeasible large increase was needed for a meaningful reduction in ΔF (e.g. twice as many mares were needed to reduce ΔF from 0.66% to 0.56%). Stratified mating quotas, a novel approach in which we assigned each sire a mating quota (of 60, 80, 100 or 120 offspring per year) based on its mean kinship to recently born foals, resulted in a lower ΔF (0.43%) than a general mating quota of 90 offspring per sire per year (0.55%). Overall, while the current ΔF is below 1%, we recommend to implement additional strategies to further reduce ΔF below 0.5% in the Friesian horse population. For this breed and similar populations, we recommend to focus on breeding strategies based on kinship levels to effectively reduce ΔF.

Small, isolated populations are often characterised by low levels of genetic diversity. This can result in inbreeding depression and reduced capacity to adapt to changes in the environment, and therefore higher risk of extinction. However, sometimes these populations can be rescued if allowed to increase in size or if migrants enter, bringing in new allelic variation and thus increasing genetic diversity. This study uses experimental manipulation of population size and migration to quantify their effects on fitness in a challenging environment to better understand genetic rescue. Using small, replicated populations of Tribolium castaneum experimentally evolved to different temperature regimes we tested genetic and demographic rescue, by performing large-scale manipulations of population size and migration and examining fitness consequences over multiple generations. We measured fitness in high temperature (38°C) thermal lines maintained at their usual \'small\' population size of N = 100 individuals, and with \'large\' scaled up duplicates containing N≈10,000 individuals. We compared these large lines with and without migration (m = 0.1) for 10 generations. Additionally, we assessed the effects of outcrossing at an individual level, by comparing fitness of hybrid (thermal line × stock) offspring with within-line crosses. We found that, at the population level, a rapid increase in the number of individuals in the population resulted in reduced fitness (represented by reproductive output and survival through heatwave conditions), regardless of migration. However, at an individual level, the hybrid offspring of migrants with native individuals generally demonstrated increased longevity in high temperature conditions compared with individuals from thermal selection lines. Overall, these populations showed no evidence that demographic manipulations led to genetic or evolutionary rescue. Following the effects of migration in individuals over several generations may be the next step in unravelling these conflicting results. We discuss these findings in the context of conservation intervention.

Habitat loss is affecting many species, including the southern mountain caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) population in western North America. Over the last half century, this threatened caribou population\'s range and abundance have dramatically contracted. An integrated population model was used to analyze 51 years (1973-2023) of demographic data from 40 southern mountain caribou subpopulations to assess the effectiveness of population-based recovery actions at increasing population growth. Reducing potential limiting factors on threatened caribou populations offered a rare opportunity to identify the causes of decline and assess methods of recovery. Southern mountain caribou abundance declined by 51% between 1991 and 2023, and 37% of subpopulations were functionally extirpated. Wolf reduction was the only recovery action that consistently increased population growth when applied in isolation, and combinations of wolf reductions with maternal penning or supplemental feeding provided rapid growth but were applied to only four subpopulations. As of 2023, recovery actions have increased the abundance of southern mountain caribou by 52%, compared to a simulation with no interventions. When predation pressure was reduced, rapid population growth was observed, even under contemporary climate change and high levels of habitat loss. Unless predation is reduced, caribou subpopulations will continue to be extirpated well before habitat conservation and restoration can become effective.

Dingoes arrived in Australia during the mid-Holocene and are the top-order terrestrial predator on the continent. Although dingoes subsequently spread across the continent, the initial founding population(s) could have been small. We investigated this hypothesis by sequencing the whole genomes of three dingoes and also obtaining the genome data from nine additional dingoes and 56 canines, including wolves, village dogs and breed dogs, and examined the signatures of bottlenecks and founder effects. We found that the nucleotide diversity of dingoes was low, 36% less than highly inbred breed dogs and 3.3 times lower than wolves. The number of runs of homozygosity (RoH) segments in dingoes was 1.6-4.7 times higher than in other canines. While examining deleterious mutational load, we observed that dingoes carried elevated ratios of nonsynonymous-to-synonymous diversities, significantly higher numbers of homozygous deleterious Single Nucleotide Variants (SNVs), and increased numbers of loss of function SNVs, compared to breed dogs, village dogs, and wolves. Our findings can be explained by bottlenecks and founder effects during the establishment of dingoes in mainland Australia. These findings highlight the need for conservation-based management of dingoes and the need for wildlife managers to be cognisant of these findings when considering the use of lethal control measures across the landscape.

Small populations are at high risk of extinction, and they are likely to need management intervention. Successful management, however, relies on sufficient long-term demographic data in order to determine whether apparent declines are natural fluctuations or the product of threatening processes. In this study, we monitored a small urban population of squirrel gliders (Petaurus norfolcensis) in Queensland, Australia, over a 16 year period. A reference population in a larger forest patch was also studied in order to investigate whether its demographic trends were similar. Using mark-recapture data to generate estimates of apparent survival and population size, we found evidence of a decline within the small population but not in the reference population over the monitoring period. We suggest that the influence of multiple factors may have led to the decline, but, ultimately, that the genetic condition of the small population may be responsible. Understanding demographic trends is an important context for management interventions of small populations, although causes of decline need to be identified for successful management. The squirrel glider provides a useful case study for small urban populations and particularly for arboreal mammals.