源影响和贡献的量化是设计有效的空气污染控制政策的关键要素。在这项研究中,使用蛮力法(BFM)对中国珠江三角洲(PRD)地区的O3源影响和贡献进行了全面评估,响应面建模分别采用BFM(RSM-BFM)和差分法(RSM-DM),高阶解耦直接法(HDDM),和臭氧源分配技术(OSAT)。多模型对比结果表明,在O3形成过程中典型的非线性大气条件下,BFM,RSM-BFM,和HDDM似乎适合评估单一源排放的影响;然而,当减排率高于50%时,HDDM的结果可能会偏离BFM的结果。在多源控制场景下,从RSM-DM和OSAT获得的源贡献分析结果相当好,但是OSAT的性能受到其代表O3响应其前体减排的非线性能力的限制,特别是NOx。PRD的这项初步研究结果表明,RSM-DM似乎可以很好地复制O3化学的非线性(例如,由于广州市局部NOx减排,O3不利)。根据来源贡献结果,RSM-DM和OSAT将道路移动(包括NOx和VOC排放)和工业过程(主要是VOC排放)源确定为两个主要贡献部门,珠三角9个城市的O3形成平均贡献分别为31.5%和11.4%(由RSM-DM估计)和29.2%和13.0%(由OSAT估计)。因此,中心城市道路移动和工业过程源的NOx和VOC减排(即,广州,佛山,东莞,深圳,和中山)被建议有效地减轻珠三角的环境O3水平。
Quantification of source impacts and contributions is a key element for the design of effective air pollution control policies. In this study, O3 source impacts and contributions were comprehensively assessed over the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region of China using brute-force method (BFM), response surface modeling with BFM (RSM-BFM) and differential method (RSM-DM) respectively, high-order decoupled direct method (HDDM), and ozone source apportionment technology (OSAT). The multi-modeling comparison results indicated that under typical nonlinear atmospheric conditions during the O3 formation, BFM, RSM-BFM, and HDDM seemed to be appropriate for assessing the impact of single source emissions; however, the results of HDDM could deviate from those of BFM when the emission reduction ratio was higher than 50 %. Under multi-source control scenarios, the results of source contribution analyses obtained from RSM-DM and OSAT were reasonably well, but the performance of OSAT was limited by its capability in representing the nonlinearity of O3 response to emission reductions of its precursors, particularly NOx. The results of this pilot study in the PRD showed that the RSM-DM appeared to replicate the nonlinearity of O3 chemistry reasonably well (e.g., O3 disbenefits due to local NOx emission reductions in Guangzhou city). Based on the source contribution results, on-road mobile (including both NOx and VOC emissions) and industrial process (mainly VOC emissions) sources were identified as two major contribution sectors by both RSM-DM and OSAT, contributing an average of 31.5 % and 11.4 % (estimated by RSM-DM) and 29.2 % and 13.0 % (estimated by OSAT) respectively to O3 formation in 9 cities of the PRD. Therefore, the reinforced emission reductions on NOx and VOC from on-road mobile and industrial process sources in the central cities (i.e., Guangzhou, Foshan, Dongguan, Shenzhen, and Zhongshan) were suggested to effectively mitigate the ambient O3 levels in the PRD.