resilience and adaptation

韧性和适应性
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    根据政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)的第六次评估报告,全球气候变化现在是明确的。突尼斯,像许多其他国家一样,受到气候变化的影响,包括气温上升,强烈的热浪,和改变的降水制度。突尼斯的年平均气温在20世纪上升了大约+1.4°C,自1970年代以来最迅速的变暖发生。干旱是导致树木退化和枯萎的主要因素。长期干旱会导致树木生长和健康下降,从而增加了它们对害虫和病原体的敏感性。据报道,树木死亡率的增加表明,在高温和更长时间下,全球森林的脆弱性正在加速,更严重的干旱。为了评估这些气候变化对突尼斯森林生态系统现状及其演变的影响,需要进行调查研究。这里,我们回顾了有关气候变化对突尼斯硬叶和半落叶林生态系统影响的现有知识。近年来的自然干扰,以及一些森林物种对气候变化的适应性和复原力,被调查过。标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)是基于气候数据的多标量干旱指数,已用于分析干旱变异性。SPEI时间尺度分析显示,在1955-2021年期间,突尼斯森林地区呈负趋势。2021年,突尼斯因火灾损失了280平方公里的树木,相当于2008年至2021年总损失面积的26%。不断变化的气候条件也影响了物候参数,绿色季节(SOS)开始9.4天,在绿色季节(EOS)结束时延迟5天,因此,绿色季节(LOS)的持续时间平均延长了14.2天。所有这些令人震惊的发现都邀请我们寻求森林生态系统的适应战略。因此,使森林适应气候变化是科学家以及政策制定者和管理者面临的挑战。
    According to the sixth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global climate change is now unequivocal. Tunisia, like many other countries, has been affected by climate changes, including rising temperatures, intense heatwaves, and altered precipitation regimes. Tunisia\'s mean annual temperatures has risen about +1.4 °C in the twentieth century, with the most rapid warming taking place since the 1970s. Drought represents a primary contributing factor to tree decline and dieback. Long-term drought can result in reduced growth and health of trees, thereby increasing their susceptibility to insect pests and pathogens. Reported increases in tree mortality point toward accelerating global forest vulnerability under hotter temperatures and longer, more intense droughts. In order to assess the effect of these climate changes on the current state of forest ecosystems in Tunisia and their evolution, an investigative study was required. Here, we review the current state of knowledge on the effects of climate change on sclerophyllous and semi-deciduous forest ecosystems in Tunisia. Natural disturbance during recent years, as well as the adaptability and resilience of some forest species to climate change, were surveyed. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is a multi-scalar drought index based on climate data that has been used to analyse drought variability. The SPEI time scale analysis showed a negative trend over the 1955-2021 period in Tunisian forest regions. In 2021, Tunisia lost 280 km2 of tree cover to fires, which is equivalent to 26% of the total lost area between 2008 and 2021. Changing climate conditions have also affected phenological parameters, with an advance in the start of the green season (SOS) of 9.4 days, a delay at the end of the green season (EOS) of 5 days, with a consequent extended duration of the green season (LOS) by an average of 14.2 days. All of these alarming findings invite us to seek adaptation strategies for forest ecosystems. Adapting forests to climate change is therefore a challenge for scientists as well as policymakers and managers.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    人类活动的严重性日益加剧,频率,以及世界上几个地区干旱的负面影响。这一趋势导致了对干旱风险的更广泛的科学概念,这些概念解释了人类行为及其与自然系统的相互作用。这篇评论的重点是物理和工程科学,以研究这些学科在与干旱风险的产生和分布有关的社会过程中的作用方式和程度。我们得出的结论是,这项研究在认识到人类在重塑干旱风险及其社会环境影响中的作用方面取得了重大进展。我们注意到越来越多地参与并有助于理解脆弱性,弹性,和适应模式。此外,通过推进(社会)水文模型,开发数值指标,加强数据处理,物理和工程科学家已经确定了人类在干旱灾害传播中的影响程度。然而,这些研究没有完全捕捉到人为转化的复杂性。很多时候,他们把社会描绘成同质的,决策过程是非政治性的,从而掩盖了干旱产生背后的权力关系及其影响的不均匀分布。尽管在人为干旱中发挥了重要作用,但与政治和社会力量明确接触的阻力可归因于实证主义认识论在工程和物理科学中的强大影响。我们建议,与关键社会科学的积极参与可以通过阐明导致每次社会环境转型的结构和历史权力体系来进一步阐明干旱风险。本文分为:气候,历史,社会,文化>学科视角
    Human activities have increasingly intensified the severity, frequency, and negative impacts of droughts in several regions across the world. This trend has led to broader scientific conceptualizations of drought risk that account for human actions and their interplays with natural systems. This review focuses on physical and engineering sciences to examine the way and extent to which these disciplines account for social processes in relation to the production and distribution of drought risk. We conclude that this research has significantly progressed in terms of recognizing the role of humans in reshaping drought risk and its socioenvironmental impacts. We note an increasing engagement with and contribution to understanding vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation patterns. Moreover, by advancing (socio)hydrological models, developing numerical indexes, and enhancing data processing, physical and engineering scientists have determined the extent of human influences in the propagation of drought hazard. However, these studies do not fully capture the complexities of anthropogenic transformations. Very often, they portray society as homogeneous, and decision-making processes as apolitical, thereby concealing the power relations underlying the production of drought and the uneven distribution of its impacts. The resistance in engaging explicitly with politics and social power-despite their major role in producing anthropogenic drought-can be attributed to the strong influence of positivist epistemologies in engineering and physical sciences. We suggest that an active engagement with critical social sciences can further theorizations of drought risk by shedding light on the structural and historical systems of power that engender every socioenvironmental transformation. This article is categorized under:Climate, History, Society, Culture > Disciplinary Perspectives.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    这项研究评估了洪水脆弱性,脆弱程度,洪水脆弱性的决定因素和洪水灾害的应对策略。当地社区的脆弱性和复原力是本研究的关键概念。大多数家庭容易受到洪水灾害的影响。因此,重要的是衡量他们的脆弱程度,并评估他们对当前和未来规划的反应。洪水脆弱性指数用于衡量洪水脆弱性的程度。关键线人采访,使用实地调查和家庭问卷收集数据。结果表明,该群落对洪水的脆弱性是由土壤性质决定的,住宅类型,employment,教育和一个季节的降雨量。社会和经济成分得分高于自然环境,而社会因素高于经济因素。这个社区的情境应对策略是临时搬迁,疏散到安全区域,等待政府和邻居的帮助。该研究建议公众宣传运动,预警系统和改进的灾害管理战略必须考虑到脆弱性的不同程度以及社区应对机制和偏好。
    This study assesses flood vulnerability, levels of vulnerability, determinants of flood vulnerability and coping strategies for flood hazards. The vulnerability and resilience of the local communities are key concepts in this study. Most households are vulnerable to flood hazards. It is therefore important to measure their levels of vulnerability and assess their responses for current and future planning. A flood vulnerability index was used to measure the extent of flood vulnerability. Key informant interviews, field surveys and household questionnaires were used to collect the data. The results show that vulnerability to flood in this community is determined by the nature of soil, dwelling type, employment, education and amount of rainfall in a season. Social and economic components scored higher than the physical environment, while social factors are higher than the economic factors. Contextual coping strategies in this community were temporary relocation, evacuation to a safe area and waiting for government and neighbours to help. The study recommends that public awareness campaigns, early warning systems and improved disaster management strategies must take into consideration differentiated levels of vulnerability and community coping mechanisms and preferences.
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