Climate change has physiological consequences on organisms, ecosystems and human societies, surpassing the pace of organismal adaptation. Hibernating mammals are particularly vulnerable as winter survival is determined by short-term physiological changes triggered by temperature. In these animals, winter temperatures cannot surpass a certain threshold, above which hibernators arouse from torpor, increasing several fold their energy needs when food is unavailable. Here, we parameterized a numerical model predicting energy consumption in heterothermic species and modelled winter survival at different climate change scenarios. As a model species, we used the arboreal marsupial monito del monte (genus Dromiciops), which is recognized as one of the few South American hibernators. We modelled four climate change scenarios (from optimistic to pessimistic) based on IPCC projections, predicting that northern and coastal populations (Dromiciops bozinovici) will decline because the minimum number of cold days needed to survive the winter will not be attained. These populations are also the most affected by habitat fragmentation and changes in land use. Conversely, Andean and other highland populations, in cooler environments, are predicted to persist and thrive. Given the widespread presence of hibernating mammals around the world, models based on simple physiological parameters, such as this one, are becoming essential for predicting species responses to warming in the short term.

Adaptation to new habitats might facilitate species\' range shifts in response to climate change. In 2005, we transplanted experimental populations of coastal dune plant Camissoniopsis cheiranthifolia into four sites within and one site beyond its poleward range limit. Beyond-range transplants had high fitness and often delayed reproduction. To test for adaptation associated with experimental range expansion, we transplanted descendants from beyond and within-range populations after 10 generations in situ into two sites within the range, one at the range edge, and two sites beyond the range. We expected to detect adaptation to beyond-range conditions due to substantial genetic variation within experimental populations and environmental variation among sites. However, individuals from beyond-range experimental populations were not fitter than those from within the range when planted at either beyond-range site, indicating no adaptation to the beyond-range site or beyond-range environments in general. Beyond-range descendants also did not suffer lower fitness within the range. Although reproduction was again delayed beyond the range, late reproduction was not favored more strongly beyond than within the range, and beyond-range descendants did not delay reproduction more than within-range descendants. Persistence in beyond-range environments may not require adaptation, which could allow a rapid response to climate change.

Climate change may diminish biodiversity; thus, it is urgent to predict how species\' ranges may shift in the future by integrating multiple factors involving more taxa. Bats are particularly sensitive to climate change due to their high surface-to-volume ratio. However, few studies have considered geographic variables associated with roost availability and even fewer have linked the distributions of bats to their thermoregulation and energy regulation traits. We used species distribution models to predict the potential distributions of 12 bat species in China under current and future greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) and examined factors that could affect species\' range shifts, including climatic, geographic, habitat, and human activity variables and wing surface-to-mass ratio (S-MR). The results suggest that Ia io, Rhinolophus ferrumequinum, and Rhinolophus rex should be given the highest priority for conservation in future climate conservation strategies. Most species were predicted to move northward, except for I. io and R. rex, which moved southward. Temperature seasonality, distance to forest, and distance to karst or cave were the main environmental factors affecting the potential distributions of bats. We found significant relationships between S-MR and geographic distribution, current potential distribution, and future potential distribution in the 2050s. Our work highlights the importance of analyzing range shifts of species with multifactorial approaches, especially for species traits related to thermoregulation and energy regulation, to provide targeted conservation strategies.
Patrones y correlaciones de los cambios potenciales en la distribución de las especies de murciélago de China en el contexto del cambio climático Resumen El cambio climático puede disminuir la biodiversidad, por lo que es urgente pronosticar cómo puede cambiar en el futuro la distribución de las especies mediante la integración de múltiples factores que involucren a más taxones. Los murciélagos son particularmente sensibles al cambio climático debido a que tienen una gran proporción superficie‐volumen. Sin embargo, hay pocos estudios que han considerado las variables asociadas con la disponibilidad de nidos y son todavía menos los que han conectado la distribución de los murciélagos con sus rasgos de termorregulación y regulación de energía. Usamos modelos de distribución de especies para pronosticar la distribución potencial de doce especies de murciélago en China bajo escenarios actuales y futuros de emisión de gases de efecto invernadero (SSP1‐2.6 y SSP5‐8.5) y analizamos los factores que podrían afectar el cambio en la distribución de las especies, incluyendo las variables climáticas, geográficas, de hábitat y de actividad humana y la proporción entre la superficie del ala y la masa (P S‐M). Los resultados sugieren que Ia io, Rhinolophus ferrumequinum y R. rex deberían ser la mayor prioridad de conservación para las estrategias de conservación climáticas en el futuro. Pronosticamos que la mayoría de las especies se desplazarían al norte, a excepción de I. io y R. rex, que se desplazarían hacia el sur. Los principales factores que afectaron la distribución potencial de los murciélagos fueron la estacionalidad de la temperatura, la distancia al bosque y la distancia a la cueva o al karst. Encontramos una relación significativa entre la P S‐M y la distribución geográfica, la distribución potencial actual y la distribución potencial para la década de 2050. Nuestra investigación destaca la importancia del análisis de los cambios de distribución de las especies con enfoques multifactoriales, especialmente para los rasgos de especie relacionados con la termorregulación y la regulación de energía, para proporcionar estrategias de conservación focalizadas.
气候变化可能减少生物多样性, 因此迫切需要通过整合多个涉及更多分类群的因素来预测物种的未来分布变化。蝙蝠因为表面积与体积比相对较高, 对气候变化特别敏感。然而, 很少有研究考虑到与栖息地可用性相关的地理变量, 更少有研究将蝙蝠的分布与其体温和能量调节的性状联系起来。我们使用物种分布模型, 预测了中国12种蝙蝠在当前和未来温室气体排放情景(SSP1‐2.6和SSP5‐8.5)下的潜在分布, 并检查了可能影响物种分布变化的因素, 包括气候、地理、栖息地、人类活动变量以及翼表面积与体重比(S‐MR)。结果表明, 在未来气候保护策略中, 南蝠(Ia io)、马铁菊头蝠(Rhinolophus ferrumequinum)和贵州菊头蝠(R. rex)应得到最优先的保护。除了南蝠和贵州菊头蝠向南移动外, 大多数物种预测会向北移动。温度季节性、与森林的距离以及与喀斯特或洞穴的距离是影响蝙蝠潜在分布的主要环境因素。此外, 我们发现S‐MR与地理分布、当前潜在分布以及2050年的未来潜在分布之间存在显著关系。我们的研究强调了使用多因素方法分析物种分布变化的重要性, 特别是与体温调节和能量调节相关的物种性状, 能更好地提供有针对性的保护策略。 气候变化背景下中国蝙蝠物种潜在分布范围变化模式及影响因素.

Climate change will likely shift plant and microbial distributions, creating geographic mismatches between plant hosts and essential microbial symbionts (e.g., ectomycorrhizal fungi, EMF). The loss of historical interactions, or the gain of novel associations, can have important consequences for biodiversity, ecosystem processes, and plant migration potential, yet few analyses exist that measure where mycorrhizal symbioses could be lost or gained across landscapes. Here, we examine climate change impacts on tree-EMF codistributions at the continent scale. We built species distribution models for 400 EMF species and 50 tree species, integrating fungal sequencing data from North American forest ecosystems with tree species occurrence records and long-term forest inventory data. Our results show the following: 1) tree and EMF climate suitability to shift toward higher latitudes; 2) climate shifts increase the size of shared tree-EMF habitat overall, but 35% of tree-EMF pairs are at risk of declining habitat overlap; 3) climate mismatches between trees and EMF are projected to be greater at northern vs. southern boundaries; and 4) tree migration lag is correlated with lower richness of climatically suitable EMF partners. This work represents a concentrated effort to quantify the spatial extent and location of tree-EMF climate envelope mismatches. Our findings also support a biotic mechanism partially explaining the failure of northward tree species migrations with climate change: reduced diversity of co-occurring and climate-compatible EMF symbionts at higher latitudes. We highlight the conservation implications for identifying areas where tree and EMF responses to climate change may be highly divergent.

Ecological similarity plays an important role in biotic interactions. Increased body size similarity of competing species, for example, increases the strength of their biotic interactions. Body sizes of many exothermic species are forecast to be altered under global warming, mediating shifts in existing trophic interactions among species, in particular for species with different thermal niches. Temperate rocky reefs along the southeast coast of Australia are located in a climate warming hotspot and now house a mixture of temperate native fish species and poleward range-extending tropical fishes (vagrants), creating novel species assemblages. Here, we studied the relationship between body size similarity and trophic overlap between individual temperate native and tropical vagrant fishes. Dietary niche overlap between vagrant and native fish species increased as their body sizes converged, based on both stomach content composition (short-term diet), stable isotope analyses (integrated long-term diet) and similarity in consumed prey sizes. We conclude that the warming-induced faster growth rates of tropical range-extending fish species at their cool water ranges will continue to converge their body size towards and strengthen their degree of trophic interactions and dietary overlap with co-occurring native temperate species under increasing ocean warming. The strengthening of these novel competitive interactions is likely to drive changes to temperate food web structures and reshuffle existing species community structures.

Extensive deforestation has been a major reason for the loss of forest connectivity, impeding species range shifts under current climate change. Over the past decades, the Chinese government launched a series of afforestation and reforestation projects to increase forest cover, yet whether the new forests can compensate for the loss of connectivity due to deforestation-and where future tree planting would be most effective-remains largely unknown. Here, we evaluate changes in climate connectivity across China\'s forests between 2015 and 2019. We find that China\'s large-scale tree planting alleviated the negative impacts of forest loss on climate connectivity, improving the extent and probability of climate connectivity by 0-0.2 °C and 0-0.03, respectively. The improvements were particularly obvious for species with short dispersal distances (i.e., 3 km and 10 km). Nevertheless, only ~55 % of the trees planted in this period could serve as stepping stones for species movement. This indicates that focusing solely on the quantitative target of forest coverage without considering the connectivity of forests may miss opportunities in tree planting to facilitate climate-induced range shifts. More attention should be paid to the spatial arrangement of tree plantations and their potential as stepping stones. We then identify priority areas for future tree planting to create effective stepping stones. Our study highlights the potential of large-scale tree planting to facilitate range shifts. Future tree-planting efforts should incorporate the need for species range shifts to achieve more biodiversity conservation benefits under climate change.

Dispersal is a crucial component of species\' responses to climate warming. Warming-induced changes in species\' distributions are the outcome of how temperature affects dispersal at the individual level. Yet, there is little or no theory that considers the temperature dependence of dispersal when investigating the impacts of warming on species\' distributions. Here I take a first step towards filling this key gap in our knowledge. I focus on ectotherms, species whose body temperature depends on the environmental temperature, not least because they constitute the majority of biodiversity on the planet. I develop a mathematical model of spatial population dynamics that explicitly incorporates mechanistic descriptions of ectotherm life history trait responses to temperature. A novel feature of this framework is the explicit temperature dependence of all phases of dispersal: emigration, transfer and settlement. I report three key findings. First, dispersal, regardless of whether it is random or temperature-dependent, allows both tropical and temperate ectotherms to track warming-induced changes in their thermal environments and to expand their distributions beyond the lower and upper thermal limits of their respective climate envelopes. In the absence of dispersal mortality, warming does not alter these new distributional limits. Second, an analysis based solely on trait response data predicts that tropical ectotherms should be able to expand their distributions polewards to a greater degree than temperate ectotherms. Analysis of the dynamical model confirms this prediction. Tropical ectotherms have an advantage when moving to cooler climates because they experience lower within-patch and dispersal mortality, and their higher thermal optima and maximal birth rates allow them to take advantage of the warmer parts of the year. Previous theory has shown that tropical ectotherms are more successful in invading and adapting the temperate climates than vice versa. This study provides the key missing piece, by showing how temperature-dependent dispersal could facilitate both invasion and adaptation. Third, dispersal mortality does not affect the poleward expansion of ectotherm distributions. But, it prevents both tropical and temperate ectotherms from maintaining sink populations in localities that are too warm to be viable in the absence of dispersal. Dispersal mortality also affects species\' abundance patterns, causing a larger decline in abundance throughout the range when species disperse randomly rather than in response to thermal habitat suitability. In this way, dispersal mortality can facilitate the evolution of dispersal modes that maximize fitness in warmer thermal environments.

Ongoing climate change and anthropogenic pressure are having a profound influence on insects, causing species diversity to decline and populations to shrink. Insect pests invade new areas and cause economic and human health problems. Low temperatures in winter are thought to be one of the main barriers to the successful colonization of higher latitudes. Climate models predict that winter temperatures will increase more than summer temperatures in temperate and polar regions, potentially allowing species from warmer climates to colonize higher latitudes. Understanding how climate change will affect the distribution of insects is critical to many areas of human activity. One possible but seldom used way to predict likely range shifts of insects due to climate change is through simulation experiments. Here, I present and test a method to assess the potential of insect species from warmer regions to survive winters in colder regions under a warming winter scenario. The method is based on laboratory simulations of warming winters. The applicability of the method is demonstrated using the example of a Mediterranean pest, Sesamia nonagrioides, whose ability to survive Central European winters under a warming winter scenario is assessed. The method presented here is relatively simple, with potentially high accuracy of estimates.

Tropicalisation is a marine phenomenon arising from contemporary climate change, and is characterised by the range expansion of tropical/subtropical species and the retraction of temperate species. Tropicalisation occurs globally and can be detected in both tropical/temperate transition zones and temperate regions. The ecological consequences of tropicalisation range from single-species impacts (e.g., altered behaviour) to whole ecosystem changes (e.g., phase shifts in intertidal and subtidal habitats). Our understanding of the evolutionary consequences of tropicalisation is limited, but emerging evidence suggests that tropicalisation could induce phenotypic change as well as shifts in the genotypic composition of both expanding and retracting species. Given the rapid rate of contemporary climate change, research on tropicalisation focusing on shifts in ecosystem functioning, biodiversity change, and socioeconomic impacts is urgently needed.

Global climate change is expected to have a profound effect on species distribution. Due to the temperature constraints, some narrow niche species could shift their narrow range to higher altitudes or latitudes. In this study, we explored the correlation between species traits, genetic structure, and geographical range size. More specifically, we analyzed how these variables are affected by differences in fundamental niche breadth or dispersal ability in the members of two sympatrically distributed stream-dwelling amphibian species (frog, Quasipaa yei; salamander, Pachyhynobius shangchengensis), in Dabie Mountains, East China. Both species showed relatively high genetic diversity in most geographical populations and similar genetic diversity patterns (JTX, low; BYM, high) correlation with habitat changes and population demography. Multiple clustering analyses were used to disclose differentiation among the geographical populations of these two amphibian species. Q. yei disclosed the relatively shallow genetic differentiation, while P. shangchengensis showed an opposite pattern. Under different historical climatic conditions, all ecological niche modeling disclosed a larger suitable habitat area for Q. yei than for P. shangchengensis; these results indicated a wider environment tolerance or wider niche width of Q. yei than P. shangchengensis. Our findings suggest that the synergistic effects of environmental niche variation and dispersal ability may help shape genetic structure across geographical topology, particularly for species with extremely narrow distribution.