PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
Ongoing climate change and anthropogenic pressure are having a profound influence on insects, causing species diversity to decline and populations to shrink. Insect pests invade new areas and cause economic and human health problems. Low temperatures in winter are thought to be one of the main barriers to the successful colonization of higher latitudes. Climate models predict that winter temperatures will increase more than summer temperatures in temperate and polar regions, potentially allowing species from warmer climates to colonize higher latitudes. Understanding how climate change will affect the distribution of insects is critical to many areas of human activity. One possible but seldom used way to predict likely range shifts of insects due to climate change is through simulation experiments. Here, I present and test a method to assess the potential of insect species from warmer regions to survive winters in colder regions under a warming winter scenario. The method is based on laboratory simulations of warming winters. The applicability of the method is demonstrated using the example of a Mediterranean pest, Sesamia nonagrioides, whose ability to survive Central European winters under a warming winter scenario is assessed. The method presented here is relatively simple, with potentially high accuracy of estimates.
摘要：
持续的气候变化和人为压力对昆虫产生了深远的影响，导致物种多样性下降和种群萎缩。昆虫害虫侵入新的地区并引起经济和人类健康问题。冬季的低温被认为是高纬度地区成功定殖的主要障碍之一。气候模型预测，在温带和极地地区，冬季温度将比夏季温度增加更多，可能允许来自温暖气候的物种在高纬度地区定居。了解气候变化将如何影响昆虫的分布对人类活动的许多领域至关重要。一种可能但很少使用的方法来预测由于气候变化导致的昆虫可能的范围变化是通过模拟实验。这里,我介绍并测试了一种方法，以评估在冬季变暖的情况下，温暖地区的昆虫物种在寒冷地区的冬季生存的潜力。该方法基于对冬季变暖的实验室模拟。以地中海害虫为例证明了该方法的适用性，Sesamianonagrioides,评估了其在冬季变暖情况下生存中欧冬季的能力。这里介绍的方法相对简单，估计的准确性可能很高。
