population distribution

人口分布
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:对进展的恐惧(FoP)导致结直肠癌患者的临床预后不良。本研究旨在阐明FoP在结直肠癌患者中的分布及影响因素。
    方法:对409例结直肠癌患者进行了一项横断面研究。采用便利抽样法选取南京某三级医院住院的结直肠癌患者作为调查对象。一般信息问卷,对进展的恐惧问卷-简表,困境披露指数,使用社会支持评定量表收集数据。潜在谱分析用于探索FoP在结直肠癌患者中的潜在概况。此外,采用单因素分析和二项Logistic回归分析对影响因素进行分析。
    结果:潜在特征分析确定了对疾病进展的恐惧的两个亚组:“恐惧低风险特征(83%)”,和“严重恐惧”(17%)。“年龄低的患者,社会支持利用率低,第一次住院,严重的医疗负担,术前肠道症状容易引起对疾病进展的严重恐惧。
    结论:结直肠癌患者术后对疾病进展的恐惧水平存在一定的异质性。医护人员应针对严重恐惧症患者,根据不同类别的分布特点,尽早采取针对性的预防和心理护理措施。
    OBJECTIVE: Fear of progression (FoP) leads to poor clinical outcomes in colorectal cancer patients. The study aimed to clarify the profiles and influencing factors of FoP among colorectal cancer patients.
    METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted with 409 colorectal cancer patients. Convenience sampling method was used to select colorectal cancer patients hospitalized in a tertiary-level hospital in Nanjing as the survey subjects. General information questionnaire, Fear of Progression Questionnaire-Short Form, Distress Disclosure Index, and Social Support Rating Scale were used to collect the data. Latent profile analysis was used to explore the latent profiles of FoP in colorectal cancer patients. Additionally, the influencing factors of profiles were explored by Univariate Analysis and Binomial Logistic Regression Analysis.
    RESULTS: Latent profile analysis identified two subgroups of fear of disease progression: the \"fear low-risk profile (83%)\", and the \"severe fear profile (17%).\" Patients with low age, low social support utilization, first hospital admission, severe healthcare burden, and preoperative bowel symptoms were prone to severe fear of disease progression.
    CONCLUSIONS: There is some heterogeneity in the level of postoperative fear of disease progression in colorectal cancer patients. Doctors and nurses should focus on patients with severe fear and take targeted preventive and psychological care for patients\' fear of disease progression as early as possible according to the distribution characteristics of different categories.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    初步评估安徽省结核病和耐药结核病(TB)的流行和控制效果,分析2016-2022年安徽省结核分枝杆菌耐药谱的变化趋势。
    从2016年到2022年,从四个耐药性监测点共收集了2336种培养阳性结核菌株。收集患者的人口统计信息并进行药敏试验。
    在2336株结核分枝杆菌复合菌株中,1788例(76.54%)来自男性患者,548例(23.46%)来自女性患者。大多数是汉族,来自农村地区,受雇于农业,12.54%(285/2273)患有糖尿病。共有1893株(81.04%)对所有6种抗结核药物敏感,443株(18.96%)对至少一种或多种抗结核药物耐药。初治患者耐药率为16.80%(348/2071),接受再治疗者为35.85%(95/265)。在六种抗结核药物中,耐药率从高到低依次为:INH(10.55%,236/2336),SM(8.18%,183/2336),OFX(6.53%,146/2336),RFP(5.95%,133/2336),EMB(2.37%,53/2336),KM(1.97%,44/2336)。在不同年龄的MDR菌株中观察到显著差异,类型,有或没有糖尿病,地理来源(χ2=14.895,76.534,6.032,5.109,均P<0.05)。
    结核病防治措施在一定程度上控制了结核分枝杆菌的耐药率。然而,不同类别结核病患者的耐药率仍存在统计学差异,年龄组,regions,和糖尿病疾病。早期发现和及时治疗耐药结核病患者对于控制这种疾病的传播仍然至关重要。
    UNASSIGNED: To preliminarily assess the prevalence and control effect of tuberculosis and drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) in Anhui province, and analyze the trends in the changing drug resistance spectrum of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) isolated in Anhui province from 2016 to 2022.
    UNASSIGNED: From 2016 to 2022, a total of 2336 culture-positive tuberculosis strains were collected from four drug resistance monitoring sites. Patient demographic information was collected and drug susceptibility testing was conducted.
    UNASSIGNED: Among the 2336 Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex strains, 1788 (76.54%) were from male patients and 548 (23.46%) were from female patients. The majority were of Han ethnicity, from rural areas, and employed in agriculture, with 12.54% (285/2273) having diabetes. A total of 1893 (81.04%) strains were sensitive to all six anti-TB drugs tested, and 443 (18.96%) strains were resistant to at least one or more anti-TB drugs. The drug resistance rate for patients undergoing initial treatment was 16.80% (348/2071), and 35.85% (95/265) for those receiving retreatment. Among the six anti-TB drugs, the resistance rates from highest to lowest were: INH (10.55%, 236/2336), SM (8.18%, 183/2336), OFX (6.53%, 146/2336), RFP (5.95%, 133/2336), EMB (2.37%, 53/2336), KM (1.97%, 44/2336). Significant differences were observed in MDR strains across different ages, types, with or without diabetes, and geographical sources (χ2=14.895,76.534,6.032,5.109, all P<0.05).
    UNASSIGNED: The tuberculosis prevention and control measures have controlled the drug resistance rate of Mycobacterium tuberculosis to a certain extent. However, there are still statistical differences in drug resistance rates among TB patients with different categories, age groups, regions, and diabetic diseases. Early detection and prompt treatment of patients with drug-resistant TB remain critical to controlling the spread of this disease.
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  • 文章类型: English Abstract
    OBJECTIVE: To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of leptospirosis in China from 2010 to 2022, so as to provide insights into formulation of the leptospirosis control strategy.
    METHODS: All data pertaining to clinically diagnosed cases and confirmed cases of leptospirosis reported in China from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2022 was collected from Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information Management System. The spatial, temporal and population distributions, and report and diagnosis institutions of leptospirosis cases were analyzed using a descriptive epidemiological method.
    RESULTS: A total of 4 559 leptospirosis cases were reported in China from 2010 to 2022, with an annual average number of 351 cases, and the number of reported leptospirosis cases reduced from 679 cases in 2010 to 158 cases in 2018. A total of 4 276 leptospirosis cases were reported in Sichuan Province, Yunnan Province, Guangdong Province, Hunan Province, Fujian Province, Zhejiang Province, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Anhui Province, Jiangxi Province and Guizhou Province, accounting for 93.79% of the total number of leptospirosis cases in China. The number of leptospirosis cases had recently appeared a remarkable decline in Yunnan Province, while a significant rise was seen in the number of leptospirosis cases in two provinces of Zhejiang and Guangdong. No leptospirosis cases were reported in Henan Province from 2010 to 2020; however, there were 5 cases and 2 cases reported in 2021 and 2022, respectively. There was only one leptospirosis case reported in Shaanxi Province from 2010 to 2017; however, leptospirosis cases were reported in the province for 5 consecutive years since 2018. Leptospirosis cases were reported throughout the year in China from 2010 to 2022, with the peak of incidence found during the period between August and October, and the peak of leptospirosis incidence varied in provinces. A higher number of leptospirosis cases was seen among men than among women, with a male to female ratio of 2.3:1, and the median age of leptospirosis cases was 50 years (interquartile range, 23 years), with the highest proportion of leptospirosis cases reported at ages of 51 to 60 years (23.21%). Among all reported leptospirosis cases, 53.28% were confirmed cases, and the proportion of confirmed cases increased from 35.05% in 2010 to 61.66% in 2022. In addition, there were 67.22% of leptospirosis cases (2 937 cases) reported by comprehensive hospitals, 20.44% (893 cases) by disease control and prevention institutions, 7.23% (316 cases) by grassroots healthcare institutions and 5.10% (223 cases) by other healthcare and medical institutions, and the mortality of reported leptospirosis cases was 1.07% in China from 2010 to 2022, with a higher mortality seen among men than among women (1.39% vs. 0.36%; χ2 = 9.52, P = 0.002).
    CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of leptospirosis remained at a low level in China from 2010 to 2022, and southern China was still the main endemic area for leptospirosis. The epidemiological characteristics of leptospirosis cases varied in endemic provinces, and leptospirosis cases had been continued to be reported in Shaanxi and Henan provinces, which should be paid much attention to. Intensified surveillance of leptospirosis, improved diagnosis and treatment capability of leptospirosis cases and leptospirosis control with adaptations to local circumstance are recommended.
    [摘要] 目的 分析 2010—2022 年我国钩端螺旋体病流行病学特征, 为制订钩端螺旋体病防控策略提供参考依据。方法 在中国疾病预防控制信息系统中, 收集 2010 年 1 月 1 日至 2022 年 12 月 31 日报告的钩端螺旋体病临床诊断病例和确 诊病例信息, 采用描述性流行病学方法对病例地区、时间、人群分布及报告和诊断机构进行分析。结果 2010—2022 年 全国累计报告钩端螺旋体病病例 4 559 例, 年均报告 351 例; 报告病例数从 2010 年的 679 例下降至 2018 年的 158 例。四 川省、云南省、广东省、湖南省、福建省、浙江省、广西壮族自治区、安徽省、江西省和贵州省累计报告钩端螺旋体病病例 4 276 例, 占全国病例总数的 93.79%; 其中云南省近年病例数大幅下降, 浙江省、广东省报告病例数明显增加。2010—2020 年河南省无钩端螺旋体病病例报告, 但 2021、2022 年分别报告 5 例和 2 例; 2010—2017 年陕西省仅报告 1 例病例, 但 自 2018 年起连续 5 年有病例报告。全国全年均有钩端螺旋体病病例报告, 以 8—10 月为发病高峰, 各省发病高峰存在差 异; 男性病例多于女性, 男女性别比为 2.3:1; 病例中位年龄 50 岁 (四分位间距: 23 岁), 以 51~60 岁组报告病例数占比最 高 (23.21%)。2010—2022 年我国钩端螺旋体病报告病例中, 确诊病例占 53.28%, 确诊病例占比从 2010 年的 35.05% 上升 至 2022 年的 61.66%。综合医院、疾病预防控制机构、基层卫生机构和其他卫生机构钩端螺旋体病报告病例数占比分别 为 67.22% (2 937 例)、20.44% (893 例)、7.23% (316 例)、5.10% (223 例)。2010—2022 年全国钩端螺旋体病报告病例病死 率为1.07%, 男性病死率高于女性 (1.39% vs. 0.36%; χ2 = 9.52, P = 0.002)。结论 2010—2022 年我国钩端螺旋体病处于 低水平流行状态, 南方地区为主要流行区, 各流行省份病例流行病学特征存在差异。陕西省、河南省等省份近年持续有 病例报告, 需加强关注。建议各地加强钩端螺旋体病监测, 提升病例诊治能力, 因地制宜开展防控工作。.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    将来自十个法国北部和两个荷兰种群的Monachacantiana标本的壳和生殖器特征以及选定的线粒体和核基因的核苷酸序列与英国和意大利种群的相同特征进行了比较。发现它们与先前鉴定为属于M.cantiana的CAN-1谱系的种群非常相似。这证实了先前的建议,即M.cantiana被引入西欧(英格兰,法国和荷兰)在历史时期。
    Features of shell and genitalia as well as nucleotide sequences of selected mitochondrial and nuclear genes of specimens of Monachacantiana from ten northern French and two Dutch populations were compared with the same features of British and Italian populations. They were found to be very similar to populations previously identified as belonging to the CAN-1 lineage of M.cantiana. This confirms previous suggestions that M.cantiana was introduced to western Europe (England, France and the Netherlands) in historical times.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:肺大细胞神经内分泌癌(LCNEC)是一种罕见的,侵略性,高级别神经内分泌癌预后差,主要见于老年男性。迄今为止,我们没有发现关于LCNEC预测模型的研究.
    方法:我们从监测中提取数据,流行病学,2010年至2018年确认的LCNEC的最终结果(SEER)数据库。单变量和多变量Cox比例风险回归分析用于识别独立的危险因素。然后我们构建了一个新的列线图,并通过受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线评估了预测有效性,校正曲线,和决策曲线分析(DCA)。
    结果:共纳入2546例LCNEC患者,不包括那些被诊断为尸检或死亡证明的人,肿瘤,淋巴结,转移(TNM)分期,肿瘤分级缺乏,等。,最后,本研究共纳入743例病例.经过单变量和多变量分析,我们得出结论,独立的危险因素是N期,肺内转移,骨转移,脑转移瘤,和手术干预。ROC曲线的结果,校正曲线,训练组和验证组的DCA证实列线图可以准确预测预后。
    结论:从我们的研究中获得的列线图有望成为LCNEC患者个性化预后预测的有用工具,这可能有助于临床决策。
    BACKGROUND: Lung Large cell neuroendocrine carcinoma (LCNEC) is a rare, aggressive, high-grade neuroendocrine carcinoma with a poor prognosis, mainly seen in elderly men. To date, we have found no studies on predictive models for LCNEC.
    METHODS: We extracted data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database of confirmed LCNEC from 2010 to 2018. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional risk regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors, and then we constructed a novel nomogram and assessed the predictive effectiveness by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA).
    RESULTS: A total of 2546 patients with LCNEC were included, excluding those diagnosed with autopsy or death certificate, tumor, lymph node, metastasis (TNM) stage, tumor grade deficiency, etc., and finally, a total of 743 cases were included in the study. After univariate and multivariate analyses, we concluded that the independent risk factors were N stage, intrapulmonary metastasis, bone metastasis, brain metastasis, and surgical intervention. The results of ROC curves, calibration curves, and DCA in the training and validation groups confirmed that the nomogram could accurately predict the prognosis.
    CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram obtained from our study is expected to be a useful tool for personalized prognostic prediction of LCNEC patients, which may help in clinical decision-making.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    确定美国耳科-神经内科医生-外科医生的地理和人均分布。
    国家数据库审查。
    美国。
    查询了美国神经学会和ENThealth.org会员数据库,以识别美国的耳科-神经内科医生-外科医生。医生和外科医生按区域国家人口普查地区划分,state,以及基于2019年美国人口普查人口估计的最大人口统计区域。计算每个人口名称中每100万人的耳科-神经内科医生-外科医生人数。
    确认了四百八十二名内科医生,代表49个州和哥伦比亚特区。新英格兰分部(康涅狄格州,缅因州,马萨诸塞州,新罕布什尔州,罗德岛)是最集中的地区(1.89),而中西部-中南部(德克萨斯州,俄克拉荷马州,阿肯色州,路易斯安那州)是每百万人口中最不集中的地区(1.23)。按州划分,内科医生的最高集中度在哥伦比亚特区内(4.25),佛蒙特州(3.21),北达科他州(2.62),马萨诸塞州(2.61),和纽约(2.21)(每百万),而密西西比州(0.67),格鲁吉亚(0.66),爱达荷州(0.56),新墨西哥州(0.48),怀俄明州(0.0)是每百万人口集中最少的国家。越来越多的内科医生与医生之间的关系与状态显着相关(r2=0.9;P<0.0001),最大统计面积(r2=0.88;P<0.0001),和人口普查区域(r2=0.95;P<0.0005)。
    耳科-神经内科医生-外科医生在美国分布均匀;然而,某些领域的代表性可能不足。临床实践中的变异性可能是本分析中未捕获的代表性不足或过多的原因。
    UNASSIGNED: Determine the geographic and per capita distribution of otology-neurotology physician-surgeons within the United States.
    UNASSIGNED: National database review.
    UNASSIGNED: United States.
    UNASSIGNED: The American Neurotology Society and ENThealth.org membership databases were queried to identify otology-neurotology physician-surgeons within the United States. Physician-surgeons were divided by regional national census areas, state, and by largest population statistical area based on 2019 US Census population estimates. The number of otology-neurotology physician-surgeons per 1 million persons was calculated for each population designation.
    UNASSIGNED: Four-hundred eighty-two physician-surgeons were identified, representing 49 states and the District of Columbia. The New England division (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island) was the most concentrated region (1.89), whereas the West-South-Central (Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana) was the least concentrated region (1.23) per million persons. The highest concentration of physician-surgeons by state is within the District of Columbia (4.25), Vermont (3.21), North Dakota (2.62), Massachusetts (2.61), and New York (2.21) (per million), whereas Mississippi (0.67), Georgia (0.66), Idaho (0.56), New Mexico (0.48), and Wyoming (0.0) were the least concentrated per million persons. Increasing number of physician-surgeons was significantly correlated by state (r2 = 0.9; P < 0.0001), largest statistical area (r2 = 0.88; P < 0.0001), and census region (r2 = 0.95; P < 0.0005).
    UNASSIGNED: Otology-neurotology physician-surgeons are evenly distributed across the United States; however, certain areas are likely underrepresented. Variability in clinical practice may account for under or overrepresentation not captured in this analysis.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    近年来,由于极端天气,大坝倒塌频繁发生,对下游居民构成重大威胁。建立紧急避难所对于减少人员伤亡至关重要。选择合适的庇护所取决于关键信息,例如受影响的人数和分布,以及庇护所的有效容量和可及性。然而,先前关于庇护所选址的研究没有在更精细的范围内充分考虑人口分布差异。这种限制阻碍了估计受影响人数的准确性。此外,大多数研究忽略了极端降雨对避难所的有效容量和可及性的影响,导致避难所选择结果的适用性较低。因此,在这项研究中,土地利用和土地覆盖变化(LUCC)和夜间照明数据用于模拟人口分布并确定受影响人口的数量和分布。根据筛选标准获得合格的候选庇护所,量化了它们在不同天气条件下的有效容量和可访问性信息。考虑到人口转移效率等因素,建筑成本和住房容量限制,建立多目标选址模型,并利用非支配排序遗传算法II(NSGA-II)进行求解,得到最终的选址方案。将该方法应用于大方营水库,结果表明:(1)下游35条街道人口总体平均相对误差(MRE)为11.16%,具有良好的拟合精度。模拟结果真实反映了种群分布情况。(2)正常天气筛查产生352个合格的候选庇护所,而极端降雨天气筛查产生了266个候选避难所。(3)根据人口分布和天气因素,设置了四个场景,选择了63、106、73和131个庇护所。这两个因素对避难所的选择和撤离人员的分配有重大影响,并应在发生溃坝洪水时予以考虑。
    In recent years, dam failures have occurred frequently because of extreme weather, posing a significant threat to downstream residents. The establishment of emergency shelters is crucial for reducing casualties. The selection of suitable shelters depends on key information such as the number and distribution of affected people, and the effective capacity and accessibility of the shelters. However, previous studies on siting shelters did not fully consider population distribution differences at a finer scale. This limitation hinders the accuracy of estimating the number of affected people. In addition, most studies ignored the impact of extreme rainfall on the effective capacity and accessibility of shelters, leading to a low applicability of the shelter selection results. Therefore, in this study, land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) and nighttime lighting data were used to simulate population distribution and determine the number and distribution of affected people. Qualified candidate shelters were obtained based on screening criteria, and their effective capacity and accessibility information under different weather conditions were quantified. Considering factors such as population transfer efficiency, construction cost and shelter capacity constraints, a multi-objective siting model was established and solved using the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA- II) to obtain the final siting scheme. The method was applied to the Dafangying Reservoir, and the results showed the following: (1) The overall mean relative error (MRE) of the population in the 35 downstream streets was 11.16 %, with good fitting accuracy. The simulation results truly reflect the population distribution. (2) Normal weather screening generated 352 qualified candidate shelters, whereas extreme rainfall weather screening generated 266 candidate shelters. (3) Based on the population distribution and weather factors, four scenarios were set up, with 63, 106, 73, and 131 shelters selected. These two factors have a significant impact on the selection of shelters and the allocation of evacuees, and should be considered in the event of a dam-failure floods.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    准确定性和定量地掌握城市人口密集地区交通噪声暴露特征是合理控制交通噪声的重要前提。这项研究的主要目的是开发和应用基于兴趣点(POI)的交通噪声暴露评估方法。首先,自动查询算法用于获取地理空间信息,POI数据,建筑和网络信息来自网络地图。第二,构造了总体预处理POI的属性矩阵。并通过POI的主成分分析(PCA)和人口统计数据的高斯分解来获得人口分布。然后,根据实测交通流参数,采用修正的交通噪声线源模型计算考虑建筑物间衰减的噪声分布。最后,借助拟议的噪声评价指标,并考虑噪声功能要求(NFRs,根据不同的区域土地利用类型可分为四类),实现了交通噪声评价。所提出的方法适用于具有四个NFR类的典型区域。得出交通噪声暴露特性受交通状况的影响,建筑物,NFR类别和人口分布。暴露在噪音下的人群会产生聚集效应,通常以特定的建筑物为中心。此外,人们活动相关的POI类型遭受更严重的噪声暴露,并且在不考虑设置场景的人群分布的情况下,在低需求区域高估了暴露。
    Accurate qualitative and quantitative information on the characteristics of traffic noise exposure in densely populated urban areas is an important prerequisite for reasonable traffic noise control. The primary objective of this study is the development and application of a traffic noise exposure evaluation method based on points of interest (POIs). First, an automatic query arithmetic is used to acquire geospatial information, POIs data, building and network information from the webmap. Second, the attribute matrix of preprocessed POIs for the population is constructed. And the population distribution is obtained by principal component analysis (PCA) of POIs and Gaussian decomposition of demographic data. Then, the modified traffic noise line-source model is applied to calculate the noise distribution considering attenuation among buildings based on measured traffic flow parameters. Finally, with the help of the proposed noise evaluation indicators, and considering the noise function requirements (NFRs, which can be divided into four classes according to different area land-use types), traffic noise evaluation is realized. The proposed method is applied to a typical region with four NFR classes. It is concluded that the characteristics of traffic noise exposure are affected by traffic conditions, buildings, NFR classes and population distribution. And the crowds exposed to noise present aggregation effects, which are usually centered around specific buildings. In addition, POI types which people actives related suffer more serious noise exposure, and exposure is overestimated at low requirement regions without considering crowd distribution of the setting scenario.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在美国爆发了多年的木本溃疡(Cryptosphaeriapullmanensis),伊朗,而中国对生物林和果树造成了巨大的经济损失。然而,关于它们的分发只有有限的信息,由于缺乏研究,它们的栖息地需求没有得到很好的评估。近年来,科学家利用MaxEnt模型来估计全球温度和特定环境条件对物种分布的影响。利用发生和高分辨率生态数据,通过应用MaxEnt模型预测了12种气候变化情景下pullmanensis的时空分布。我们确定了气候因素,地理,土壤,和土地覆盖决定了它们的分布范围,并决定了它们栖息地范围的变化。然后,我们测量了合适的栖息地,适宜栖息地面积的变化比例,气候变化下地图的膨胀和收缩,从现在到二十一世纪末,射程的方向和距离发生变化,以及环境变量的影响。pullmanensis主要分布在中国西北地区的高适宜性地区,伊朗大部分地区,阿富汗,土耳其,智利北部,阿根廷西南部,和美国加利福尼亚州的西海岸。在未来的气候条件下,不同强度的气候变化有利于中国pullmanensis适宜栖息地的扩展。然而,全球适当的土地面积正在减少。迁移的趋势是向更高的纬度和海拔方向发展。在中国,可能适合的估计区域向东移动。本研究的结果不仅对摩洛哥等国家有价值,西班牙,智利,土耳其,哈萨克斯坦,等。,在感染尚未完全传播或尚未建立的地方,也适用于发现该物种的国家。当局应采取措施减少温室气体排放,以限制C.pullmanensis的传播。地点非常合适的国家应该加强监视,风险评估,和反应能力。
    Years of outbreaks of woody canker (Cryptosphaeria pullmanensis) in the United States, Iran, and China have resulted in massive economic losses to biological forests and fruit trees. However, only limited information is available on their distribution, and their habitat requirements have not been well evaluated due to a lack of research. In recent years, scientists have utilized the MaxEnt model to estimate the effect of global temperature and specific environmental conditions on species distribution. Using occurrence and high resolution ecological data, we predicted the spatiotemporal distribution of C. pullmanensis under twelve climate change scenarios by applying the MaxEnt model. We identified climatic factors, geography, soil, and land cover that shape their distribution range and determined shifts in their habitat range. Then, we measured the suitable habitat area, the ratio of change in the area of suitable habitat, the expansion and shrinkage of maps under climate change, the direction and distance of range changes from the present to the end of the twenty-first century, and the effect of environmental variables. C. pullmanensis is mostly widespread in high-suitability regions in northwestern China, the majority of Iran, Afghanistan, and Turkey, northern Chile, southwestern Argentina, and the west coast of California in the United States. Under future climatic conditions, climate changes of varied intensities favored the expansion of suitable habitats for C. pullmanensis in China. However, appropriate land areas are diminishing globally. The trend in migration is toward latitudes and elevations that are higher. The estimated area of possible suitability shifted eastward in China. The results of the present study are valuable not only for countries such as Morocco, Spain, Chile, Turkey, Kazakhstan, etc., where the infection has not yet fully spread or been established, but also for nations where the species has been discovered. Authorities should take steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in order to restrict the spread of C. pullmanensis. Countries with highly appropriate locations should increase their surveillance, risk assessment, and response capabilities.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    预测全球气候变化下物种和适宜区域的空间分布可以为物种保护和长期管理策略提供参考。猕猴和猕猴是两种濒临灭绝的猕猴。然而,关于其分发的信息有限,由于复杂的分类学和较少的研究关注,它们的栖息地需求缺乏适当的评估。近年来,最大熵(MaxEnt)模型用于预测全球气候和某些环境因子对物种分布的影响。因此,我们使用MaxEnt模型使用发生和高分辨率生态数据预测了六种气候变化情景下两种猕猴物种的时空分布。我们确定了气候因素,高程,和土地覆盖决定了它们的分布范围,并决定了它们栖息地范围的变化。结果表明,温度范围,年降水量,林地覆盖,和温度季节性,包括最干旱月份的降水是影响其分布的主要因素。目前,M.thibetana主要集中在中部,东方,南方,中国西南部,和奥克托地主要集中在三个省(云南,广西,和广东)在中国南部。MaxEnt模型预测,随着温室排放情景的增加,两种物种的合适栖息地都会增加。我们还发现,随着温室气体排放的进一步增加,预计阿克托地德菌将迁移到中国西部或东部。这是对中国硫属M.thibetana和arctoides分布的重新解释,并预测潜在的合适栖息地和可能的迁移方向,可能为这两个物种的未来保护和管理提供新的见解。
    Predicting the spatial distribution of species and suitable areas under global climate change could provide a reference for species conservation and long-term management strategies. Macaca thibetana and Macaca arctoides are two endangered species of Chinese macaques. However, limited information is available on their distribution, and their habitat needs lack proper assessment due to complicated taxonomy and less research attention. In recent years, scholars widely used the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to predict the impact of global climate and certain environmental factors on species distribution. Therefore, we used the MaxEnt model to predict the spatiotemporal distribution of both macaque species under six climate change scenarios using occurrence and high-resolution ecological data. We identified climatic factors, elevation, and land cover that shape their distribution range and determined shifts in their habitat range. The results demonstrated that temperature range, annual precipitation, forest land cover, and temperature seasonality, including the precipitation of the driest month are the main factors affecting their distribution. Currently, M. thibetana is mainly concentrated in central, eastern, southern, and southwestern China, and M. arctoides is mainly concentrated in three provinces (Yunnan, Guangxi, and Guangdong) in southern China. The MaxEnt model predicted that the suitable habitat for both species will increase with increased greenhouse emission scenarios. We also found that with the further increase in greenhouse emissions M. thibetana is expected to migrate to western China, and M. arctoides is expected to migrate to western or eastern China. This reinterpretation of the distribution of M. thibetana and M. arctoides in China, and predicted potential suitable habitat and possible migration direction, may provide new insights into the future conservation and management of these two species.
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