natural risks

  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    作为社会化服务的主要服务模式和管理模式,农业生产托管服务(APTS)是实现农民与现代农业发展紧密联系的重要途径,这对于确保国家粮食安全非常重要。通过构建农民实用模型,本文从自然风险和非农就业收入(NAEI)双重机制出发,推导了农户APTS的决策机制,并利用东北三省956个农户的调查数据,运用多元logit(Mlogit)和倾向得分匹配(PSM)方法对实证结果进行了验证。研究表明,自然风险阻碍了农民对APTS的选择;NAEI对APST有积极影响,NAEI的增加削弱了自然风险对APTS选择的负面影响,并具有增强的调节作用。此外,尺度异质性分析表明,自然风险和NAEI对不同尺度农户的影响存在显著差异。NAEI调节效应对小农影响最大,其次是中等规模的农民。鉴于此,政府应稳定非农就业市场,改善农民非农就业机会。APTS组织应转移自然风险,完善农业保险制度。根据不同农户规模的差异,制定不同的推广政策,并提出扩大管理和深化服务,进一步推动APTS的发展,夯实我国粮食安全基础。
    As the main service mode and management mode of socialized service, agricultural production trusteeship services (APTS) are an important way to realize the tight link between farmers and modern agricultural development, which is highly important for ensuring national food security. By constructing a utility model of farmers, this paper deduces the decision-making mechanism of farmers\' APTS from the dual mechanism of natural risk and non-agricultural employment income (NAEI) and uses the survey data of 956 farmers in the three northeastern provinces to verify the empirical results by using multivariate logit (Mlogit) and propensity score matching (PSM) methods. The research shows that natural risk hinders farmers\' choice of the APTS; NAEI has a positive impact on APST, and an increase in NAEI weakens the negative effect of natural risk on the choice of the APTS, and has an enhanced moderating effect. In addition, the scale heterogeneity analysis revealed that the impacts of natural risk and NAEI on farmers of different scales are significantly different. The NAEI adjustment effect has the greatest impact on small-scale farmers, followed by medium-scale farmers. In view of this, the government should stabilize the nonagricultural employment market and improve the nonagricultural employment opportunities of farmers. APTS organizations should transfer natural risks and improve the agricultural insurance system. According to the differences of different scales of farmers, different promotion policies are formulated, and the expansion of management and deepening services is proposed to further promote the development of APTS and consolidate the foundation of food security in China.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    对信任脆弱性的调查对于理解信任形成和侵蚀的潜在机制很重要。然而,由于缺乏对风险来源和信息类型的考虑,阻碍了对信任脆弱性的更有效探索。
    这项研究将不对称调查扩展到经验和描述性决策下的社会和自然风险。以信任博弈为决策范式,以金钱为主体,这项研究采用实验方法来检验人们在受到自然和社会风险的积极和消极影响后如何看待和做出决定。共有286名大学生参加了我们的研究。研究1(n=138)和研究2(n=148)分别探讨了经验和描述性决策中的不对称性。
    研究结果表明,在考虑经验信息时,与阳性信息的增强作用相比,阴性信息在降低信任方面的作用更大(t=-1.95,p=0.050)。此外,研究表明,负面信息在社会风险而不是自然风险的背景下具有更强的负面影响(t=-3.26,p=0.002),这表明信任在内部和外部都是脆弱的。相反,当考虑描述性信息时,正面和负面信息对信任的影响是对称的,与自然风险相比,负面信息的影响较小,表明信任具有一定的弹性(t=2.25,p=0.028)。
    该研究强调了在复杂场景中细化风险源和信息特征的重要性,以提高对信任增强和修复的理解。
    UNASSIGNED: The investigation of trust vulnerability is important to the understanding of the potential mechanisms of trust formation and erosion. However, more effective exploration of trust vulnerability has been hindered due to the lack of consideration of risk sources and types of information.
    UNASSIGNED: This study extended the investigation of asymmetry to both social and natural risk under experiential and descriptive decisions. Using the trust game as the decision-making paradigm and money as the subject matter, the research employed experimental methods to examine how people perceive and make decisions after being positively and negatively affected by natural and social risks. A total of 286 college students were participated in our study. Study 1 (n = 138) and Study 2 (n = 148) explored asymmetry in experiential and descriptive decision separately.
    UNASSIGNED: The findings indicated that when considering experiential information, negative information had a greater effect in reducing trust compared to the enhancing effect of positive information (t = -1.95, p = 0.050). Moreover, the study revealed that negative information had a stronger negative impact in the context of social risks rather than natural risks (t = -3.26, p = 0.002), suggesting that trust is vulnerable both internally and externally. Conversely, when considering descriptive information, the effect of both positive and negative information on trust was symmetrical, and the impact of negative information was less significant compared to that of natural risks, indicating that trust has a certain level of resilience (t = 2.25, p = 0.028).
    UNASSIGNED: The study emphasizes the importance of refining risk sources and information characteristics in complex scenarios in order to improve understanding of trust enhancement and repair.
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