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Abstract：
As the main service mode and management mode of socialized service, agricultural production trusteeship services (APTS) are an important way to realize the tight link between farmers and modern agricultural development, which is highly important for ensuring national food security. By constructing a utility model of farmers, this paper deduces the decision-making mechanism of farmers\' APTS from the dual mechanism of natural risk and non-agricultural employment income (NAEI) and uses the survey data of 956 farmers in the three northeastern provinces to verify the empirical results by using multivariate logit (Mlogit) and propensity score matching (PSM) methods. The research shows that natural risk hinders farmers\' choice of the APTS; NAEI has a positive impact on APST, and an increase in NAEI weakens the negative effect of natural risk on the choice of the APTS, and has an enhanced moderating effect. In addition, the scale heterogeneity analysis revealed that the impacts of natural risk and NAEI on farmers of different scales are significantly different. The NAEI adjustment effect has the greatest impact on small-scale farmers, followed by medium-scale farmers. In view of this, the government should stabilize the nonagricultural employment market and improve the nonagricultural employment opportunities of farmers. APTS organizations should transfer natural risks and improve the agricultural insurance system. According to the differences of different scales of farmers, different promotion policies are formulated, and the expansion of management and deepening services is proposed to further promote the development of APTS and consolidate the foundation of food security in China.
摘要：
作为社会化服务的主要服务模式和管理模式,农业生产托管服务(APTS)是实现农民与现代农业发展紧密联系的重要途径,这对于确保国家粮食安全非常重要。通过构建农民实用模型,本文从自然风险和非农就业收入(NAEI)双重机制出发,推导了农户APTS的决策机制,并利用东北三省956个农户的调查数据,运用多元logit(Mlogit)和倾向得分匹配(PSM)方法对实证结果进行了验证。研究表明，自然风险阻碍了农民对APTS的选择；NAEI对APST有积极影响，NAEI的增加削弱了自然风险对APTS选择的负面影响，并具有增强的调节作用。此外,尺度异质性分析表明,自然风险和NAEI对不同尺度农户的影响存在显著差异。NAEI调节效应对小农影响最大,其次是中等规模的农民。鉴于此,政府应稳定非农就业市场，改善农民非农就业机会。APTS组织应转移自然风险，完善农业保险制度。根据不同农户规模的差异,制定不同的推广政策，并提出扩大管理和深化服务，进一步推动APTS的发展，夯实我国粮食安全基础。
