UNASSIGNED: Recently, the IMmotion151 trial evaluated the safety and efficacy of atezolizumab plus bevacizumab in metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) and found that this combination led to longer progression-free survival. However, no studies have evaluated the cost-effectiveness of atezolizumab plus bevacizumab.
UNASSIGNED: We constructed a Markov model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of atezolizumab plus bevacizumab, using costs and utilities from the published studies. We set the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold at $150,000. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to ensure that our results were robust. We performed a threshold analysis to explore a more appropriate price for atezolizumab.
UNASSIGNED: Our results found that although atezolizumab plus bevacizumab provided more quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), its incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was $1,640,532/QALY, well above the WTP threshold. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analysis results confirmed the robust of this conclusion. Based on the threshold analysis, for atezolizumab plus bevacizumab to be cost-effective, the price of them would need to be reduced by 46.3% or more.
UNASSIGNED: From the perspective of US payers, atezolizumab plus bevacizumab is not cost-effective for mRCC patients. To make this combination cost-effective in the future, the price of atezolizumab and bevacizumab needs to be reduced.

BACKGROUND: Forecasting the intensity, source, and cost of informal care for older adults in China is essential to establish and enhance policy support systems for informal care within the context of East Asian traditional culture that emphasizes filial piety. This study aims to analyze the current situation and influencing factors for the informal care needs and predict the trends of informal care needs for older adults in China from 2020 to 2040.
METHODS: Using the CHARLS database from 2015 to 2018, this study first combined a two-part model and a multinomial logit to analyze the influencing factors for the informal care needs of urban-rural older adults in China. Secondly, a multi-state Markov model was constructed to forecast the number of urban-rural older populations in each health state from 2020 to 2040. Finally, based on a microsimulation model, this study predicted the trends of informal care intensity, source, and cost for older adults in urban and rural areas from 2020 to 2040.
RESULTS: In 2040, the size of the disabled older population in China will expand further. In rural areas, the total number of disabled people in 2040 (39.77 million) is 1.50 times higher than that in 2020; In urban areas, the total number of disabled people in 2040 (56.01 million) is 2.51 times higher than that in 2020. Compared with 2020, older adults population with mild, moderate and severe disability in 2040 would increase by 87.60%, 101.70%, and 115.08%, respectively. In 2040, the number of older adults receiving low-, medium-, and high-intensity care in China will be 38.60 million, 22.89 million, and 41.69 million, respectively, and older people will still rely on informal care provided by spouses and children (from spouses only: 39.26 million, from children only: 36.74 million, from spouses and children only: 16.79 million, other: 10.39 million). The total cost of informal care in 2040 will be 1,086.65 billion yuan, 2.22 times that of 2020 (490.31 billion yuan), which grows faster than the economic growth rate.
CONCLUSIONS: From 2020 to 2040, the informal care needs of older people in rural areas will increase first and then decrease due to the demographic structure and rapid urbanization. In contrast, the informal care needs of older people in urban areas will continuously increase from 2020 to 2040, with the growth rate gradually slowing down. This study provides an evidence-based rationale for scientifically measuring the economic value of informal care and reasonably allocating care resources.

Background: Pembrolizumab is a potentially valuable treatment. However, patients, doctors, and healthcare decision-makers are uncertain about its cost-effectiveness and an appropriate pricing for this new therapy. This study aims to appraise the cost-effectiveness of pembrolizumab as a first-line treatment for advanced biliary tract cancer (BTC) patients in China and the United States (US). Methods: A Markov model was constructed from the perspectives of healthcare systems in both China and the US for pharmacoeconomic evaluation. Patient baseline characteristics and key clinical data were sourced from the KEYNOTE-966 trial (ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04003636). Costs and utilities were collected from drug cost websites and published literature. Cumulative costs (in USD), life years (LYs), quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were measured and compared. Price simulations were conducted under given willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds to provide pricing scheme references. The model\'s robustness was analyzed through one-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Results: Basic data analysis illustrates that pembrolizumab ($2662.41/100 mg) in combination with chemotherapy regimen was not cost-effective relative to chemotherapy regimens at the WTP threshold of $38,201.19 in China, and the additional cost relative to chemotherapy regimens was $77,114.94 (ICER $556,689.47/QALY) while increasing 0.14 QALYs. Pembrolizumab ($54.71/1 mg) also increased efficacy by 0.14 QALYs in the US, but remained also not cost-effective at the US WTP threshold of $229,044, and the total cost increased by $160,425.24 (ICER $1,109,462.92/QALY). Conclusion: Compared with chemotherapy, pembrolizumab plus chemotherapy reduces the disease of burden. However, at its current price, it may not be a cost-effective treatment for advanced BTC in both China and the US. This study can aid decision-makers in making optimal choices.

Two vaccines against rotavirus diseases, Rotarix® and RotaTeq®, are being marketed in Spain; but rotavirus is not presently among the diseases covered by universal vaccination in Spain. The aim of this study was to assess the efficiency of extending Spain\'s current targeted rotavirus vaccination strategy including only preterm babies, to a policy of universal vaccination. A de novo cohort-based Markov model was built to evaluate the efficiency of three compared rotavirus vaccination strategies in Spain: targeted, universal, and no vaccination. Using Rotarix® or RotaTeq®, we compared the cost-utility of these strategies from both a societal perspective and Spanish National Health System (SNHS) perspective. The model represents the most important clinical events conceivably linked to rotavirus infection. Efficacy, effectiveness, safety, costs, and utilities were identified by systematic reviews. Incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) is EUR 23,638/QALY (Quality-Adjusted Life Year) for targeted vaccination with Rotarix® compared with no vaccination. The ICUR for the rest of the strategies evaluated are above EUR 30,000/QALY. The sensitivity analysis shows price as the only parameter that could make the universal vaccination strategy efficient. Considering a threshold of EUR 25,000/QALY, only targeted vaccination with Rotarix® would be efficient from societal perspective. Price drops of 36.9% for Rotarix® and 44.6% for RotaTeq® would make universal vaccination efficient.

Atherosclerosis, a leading cause of cardiovascular disease, necessitates advanced and innovative modeling techniques to better understand and predict plaque dynamics. The present work presents two distinct hypothetical models inspired by different research fields: the logistic map from chaos theory and Markov models from stochastic processes. The logistic map effectively models the nonlinear progression and sudden changes in plaque stability, reflecting the chaotic nature of atherosclerotic events. In contrast, Markov models, including traditional Markov chains, spatial Markov models, and Markov random fields, provide a probabilistic framework to assess plaque stability and transitions. Spatial Markov models, visualized through heatmaps, highlight the spatial distribution of transition probabilities, emphasizing local interactions and dependencies. Markov random fields incorporate complex spatial interactions, inspired by advances in physics and computational biology, but present challenges in parameter estimation and computational complexity. While these hypothetical models offer promising insights, they require rigorous validation with real-world data to confirm their accuracy and applicability. This study underscores the importance of interdisciplinary approaches in developing theoretical models for atherosclerotic plaques.

UNASSIGNED: Point-of-care Testing (POCT) glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) is a convenient, cheap, effective and accessible screening method for type 2 diabetes in rural areas and community settings that is widely used in the European region and Japan, but not yet widespread in China. The study is the first to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of POCT HbA1c, fasting capillary glucose (FCG), and venous blood HbA1c to screen for type 2 diabetes in urban and rural areas of China, and to identify the best socio-economically beneficial screening strategy.
UNASSIGNED: Based on urban and rural areas in China, economic models for type 2 diabetes screening were constructed from a social perspective. The subjects of this study were adults aged 18-80 years with undiagnosed type 2 diabetes. Three screening strategies were established for venous blood HbA1c, FCG and POCT HbA1c, and cost-effectiveness analysis was performed by Markov models. One-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were performed on all parameters of the model to verify the stability of the results.
UNASSIGNED: Compared with FCG, POCT HbA1c was cost-effective with an incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) of $500.06/quality-adjusted life year (QALY) in urban areas and an ICUR of $185.10/QALY in rural areas, within the willingness-to-pay threshold (WTP = $37,653). POCT HbA1c was cost-effective with lower cost and higher utility compared with venous blood HbA1c in both urban and rural areas. In the comparison of venous blood HbA1c and FCG, venous blood HbA1c was cost-effective (ICUR = $20,833/QALY) in urban areas but not in rural areas (ICUR = $41,858/QALY). Sensitivity analyses showed that the results of the study were stable and credible.
UNASSIGNED: POCT HbA1c was cost-effective for type 2 diabetes screening in both urban and rural areas of China, which could be considered for future clinical practice in China. Factors such as geographic location, local financial situation and resident compliance needed to be considered when making the choice of venous blood HbA1c or FCG.

UNASSIGNED: NVX-CoV2373 is one of the vaccines marketed for COVID-19 prevention in Japan. Information on its cost-effectiveness is important for making well-informed decisions on the future of Japan\'s COVID-19 vaccination programme from the public healthcare payer\'s perspective. The aim of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of NVX-CoV2373 vaccination in the elderly Japanese population.
UNASSIGNED: Two analysis populations that included elderly Japanese individuals (aged ≥ 65 years) were defined in this study: those who had not received a COVID-19 vaccine or had not completed a primary vaccination series (i.e., first two vaccinations) with an approved COVID-19 vaccine (analysis population 1), and those who had received two primary vaccinations with an approved COVID-19 vaccine (analysis population 2). A literature-informed Markov model for each analysis population was developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of vaccination with NVX-CoV2373 against no vaccination with NVX-CoV2373 from the public healthcare payer\'s perspective as a base-case analysis and from the societal perspective as a scenario analysis. Vaccine efficacy was estimated from a phase 3 study of NVX-CoV2373 (EudraCT number: 2020-004123-16). Cost-effectiveness was assessed using a willingness-to-pay threshold of Japanese yen (JPY) 5 million per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were also performed.
UNASSIGNED: For analysis population 1, NVX-CoV2373 primary and booster vaccinations would reduce costs by JPY 37,647 and prolong QALYs by 0.01601. Therefore, NVX-CoV2373 primary and booster vaccinations were considered to be dominant over no vaccination. For analysis population 2, an NVX-CoV2373 booster vaccination would increase costs by JPY 5010 and prolong QALYs by 0.00550, with the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of JPY 910,566 per QALY gained.
UNASSIGNED: Our analyses suggest that a vaccination strategy with NVX-CoV2373 is cost-effective in the elderly population (aged ≥ 65 years) of Japan.

Female genital schistosomiasis is a chronic gynaecological disease caused by the waterborne parasite Schistosoma (S.) haematobium. It affects an estimated 30-56 million girls and women globally, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa where it is endemic, and negatively impacts their sexual and reproductive life. Recent studies found evidence of an association between female genital schistosomiasis and increased prevalence of HIV and cervical precancer lesions. Despite the large population at risk, the burden and impact of female genital schistosomiasis are scarcely documented, resulting in neglect and insufficient resource allocation. There is currently no standardised method for individual or population-based female genital schistosomiasis screening and diagnosis which hinders accurate assessment of disease burden in endemic countries. To optimise financial allocations for female genital schistosomiasis screening, it is necessary to explore the cost-effectiveness of different strategies by combining cost and impact estimates. Yet, no economic evaluation has explored the value for money of alternative screening methods. This paper describes a novel application of health decision analytical modelling to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of different female genital schistosomiasis screening strategies across endemic settings. The model combines a decision tree for female genital schistosomiasis screening strategies, and a Markov model for the natural history of cervical cancer to estimate the cost per disability-adjusted life-years averted for different screening strategies, stratified by HIV status. It is a starting point for discussion and for supporting priority setting in a data-sparse environment.

UNASSIGNED: Tislelizumab is the first PD-1 inhibitor in China to demonstrate superior efficacy in second-line or third-line treatment of patients with advanced or metastatic non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of tislelizumab compared to docetaxel from a Chinese healthcare system perspective.
UNASSIGNED: A dynamic Markov model was developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of tislelizumab in comparison to docetaxel in second or third-line treatment. The efficacy data utilized in the model were derived from the RATIONALE-303 clinical trial, while cost and utility values were obtained from the drug data service platform and published studies. The primary outcomes of the model encompassed quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). One-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were conducted to validate the robustness of the base case analysis results.
UNASSIGNED: The tislelizumab group demonstrated a cost increase of CNY 117,473 and a gain of 0.58 QALYs compared to the docetaxel group, resulting in an ICER value of CNY 202,927 per QALY gained.
UNASSIGNED: The administration of tislelizumab in patients with advanced or metastatic NSCLC not only extends the progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Moreover, this treatment demonstrates a favorable cost-effectiveness profile across the Chinese population.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between chronic disease status (CDS) and transitions in depressive symptoms (DS) remains unclear. This study explores the association between CDS and DS transitions.
METHODS: This cohort study analyzed data from 8175 participants aged 45+, sourced from China Family Panel Studies (2016, 2018, 2020). DS were assessed using a brief version of Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D). CDS was categorized into healthy, single disease, and multimorbidity. Markov models were used to estimate state transition intensities, mean sojourn times and hazard ratios (HRs).
RESULTS: DS transitions occurred between adjacent and non-adjacent states, but transition intensity between adjacent states was higher than among non-adjacent states. Self-transition intensities of severe-DS, mild-DS, and non-DS progressively increased, with average durations of 1.365, 1.482, and 7.854 years, respectively. Both single disease and multimorbidity were significantly associated with an increased risk of transitioning from non-DS to mild-DS, with multimorbidity showing a stronger association. In contrast, HRs for single diseases transitioning from mild-DS to severe-DS were significantly lower than 1. Furthermore, their HRs were almost <1 in recovery transitions but not statistically significant.
CONCLUSIONS: Specific chronic diseases and their combinations were not analyzed.
CONCLUSIONS: The progression of DS exhibits various pathways. CDS is associated with DS transitions, but the roles of single disease and multimorbidity may differ across different DS progression stages. Both conditions were significantly linked to the risk of new-onset DS, with multimorbidity posing a greater association. However, this relationship is not observed in other progression stages. These findings could provide insights for early prevention and intervention for DS.