incidence trends

  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    中国32种癌症的长期发病趋势尚不清楚。年轻人的癌症统计数据通常是汇总的,掩盖了重要的异质性。我们旨在评估1983年至2032年中国32种癌症的发病率趋势,并按性别和年龄组进行分层。1983年至2017年的癌症发病率数据来自五大洲第VI-XII卷的癌症发病率。利用年龄-周期-队列模型评估年龄和出生队列对中国32种癌症时间趋势的影响。而贝叶斯年龄-周期-队列模型用于预测2018年至2032年的未来趋势。在一些癌症如甲状腺癌和肾癌中观察到队列效应的增加。12种与肥胖相关的癌症中有8种可能在0-14岁年龄段上升,从2013年到2032年,15-39岁年龄组中有9人。肝癌和胃癌在年轻人群中呈上升趋势,与观察到的中年人口下降趋势形成鲜明对比。在40-64岁的女性中,宫颈癌的比例显着上升(4.3%-19.1%),从1983年到2032年,65岁以上的男性患前列腺癌(1.1%-11.8%)。中国的癌症谱正在向发达国家转移。在最近的队列中,不同年龄段的大多数癌症的发病率可能会增加。必须坚持有效的预防性干预措施,促进更健康的生活方式,比如减少肥胖,尤其是在年轻人口中。
    The long-term incidence trends of 32 cancers in China remained unclear. Cancer statistics for young population were often presented in aggregate, masking important heterogeneity. We aimed to assess the incidence trends of 32 cancers in China from 1983 to 2032, stratified by sex and age groups. Data on cancer incidence from 1983 to 2017 were extracted from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Volumes VI-XII. The age-period-cohort model was utilized to assess age and birth cohort effects on the temporal trends of 32 cancers in China, while the Bayesian age-period-cohort model was utilized to project future trends from 2018 to 2032. An increase in cohort effects is observed in some cancers such as thyroid and kidney cancers. Eight of the 12 obesity-related cancers may rise in the 0-14 age group, and nine in the 15-39 age group from 2013 to 2032. Liver and stomach cancers show an increasing trend among the younger population, contrasting with the observed declining trend in the middle-aged population. There has been a significant rise in the proportions of cervical cancer among females aged 40-64 (4.3%-19.1%), and prostate cancer among males aged 65+ (1.1%-11.8%) from 1983 to 2032. Cancer spectrum in China is shifting toward that in developed countries. Incidence rates of most cancers across different age groups may increase in recent cohorts. It is essential to insist effective preventive interventions, and promote healthier lifestyles, such as reducing obesity, especially among younger population.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    当子宫颈被切除时,子宫切除术可以预防宫颈癌。然而,子宫颈癌发病率的测量往往不能将子宫切除术的妇女排除在风险分母人群之外,低估和扭曲疾病负担。在这项研究中,我们从行为危险因素监测系统调查中估计了子宫切除术的患病率,并将没有宫颈癌风险的女性从分母中剔除.从这些数据来看,我们计算了2001-2019年年龄>30岁女性的年龄特异性和年龄标准化发病率,并校正了子宫切除术患病率.我们计算了未调整和调整的发病率之间的差异,并通过组织学检查趋势,年龄,种族和民族,和使用Joinpoint回归的地理区域。2001-2019年子宫切除术调整后的宫颈癌发病率为16.7/10万女性,比未经调整的发病率高34.6%。调整后,黑人女性的发病率高出约55%,56%的人居住在中南部东部分区,90%在70-79岁和>80岁的女性中。这些发现强调了调整子宫切除术患病率以避免低估宫颈癌发病率和掩盖年龄差异的重要性。种族,和地理区域。
    Hysterectomy protects against cervical cancer when the cervix is removed. However, measures of cervical cancer incidence often fail to exclude women with a hysterectomy from the population-at-risk denominator, underestimating and distorting disease burden. In this study, we estimated hysterectomy prevalence from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System surveys to remove the women who were not at risk of cervical cancer from the denominator and combined these estimates with the US Cancer Statistics data. From these data, we calculated age-specific and age-standardized incidence rates for women aged >30 years from 2001-2019, adjusted for hysterectomy prevalence. We calculated the difference between unadjusted and adjusted incidence rates and examined trends by histology, age, race and ethnicity, and geographic region using joinpoint regression. The hysterectomy-adjusted cervical cancer incidence rate from 2001-2019 was 16.7 per 100 000 women-34.6% higher than the unadjusted rate. After adjustment, incidence rates were higher by approximately 55% among Black women, 56% among those living in the East South Central division, and 90% among women aged 70-79 and ≥80 years. These findings underscore the importance of adjusting for hysterectomy prevalence to avoid underestimating cervical cancer incidence rates and masking disparities by age, race, and geographic region. This article is part of a Special Collection on Gynecological Cancers.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:本研究旨在通过分析GBD-2019数据集(1990-2019)并调查特定年龄,来阐明驱动西班牙黑色素瘤发病率趋势的因素。出生队列,以及对发病率的周期影响。
    方法:这项研究使用生态设计分析了1990年至2019年西班牙黑色素瘤的发病率趋势。数据来自2019年全球疾病负担研究和西班牙国家统计局。使用连接点回归分析计算年龄标准化发病率(ASIRs),和年龄周期队列(A-P-C)模型用于评估年龄的影响,时间段,和出生队列的发病率。
    结果:在1990年至2019年之间,西班牙估计诊断出147,823例黑色素瘤病例。ASIR显示两性均有稳定的增加,男性的发病率略高。在此期间,男性(平均年变化百分比(AAPC):2.8%)和女性(AAPC:2.4%)的ASIR均显示出稳定增长。Joinpoint分析显示发病率变化的不同时期,在早些年有显著的上升趋势,随后在最近几年稳定。发病率随着年龄的增长而稳步上升,在80-84岁年龄组中发病率最高。女性在年轻年龄组中的比率往往略高,而男性在老年组的发病率较高。在整个30年的研究期间,男性和女性的黑色素瘤相对风险稳步增加。在出生队列中具有显著的上升趋势。
    结论:尽管存在局限性,这项研究为影响西班牙黑色素瘤发病率的因素提供了有价值的见解.通过了解年龄,period,和队列效应,可以制定有效的预防策略来降低黑色素瘤的发病率.
    OBJECTIVE: This study aims to elucidate the factors driving melanoma incidence trends in Spain by analyzing the GBD-2019 dataset (1990-2019) and investigating the age-specific, birth cohort, and period effects on incidence rates.
    METHODS: This study analyzed melanoma incidence trends in Spain from 1990 to 2019 using an ecological design. Data were sourced from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 and Spain\'s National Statistics Institute. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) were calculated using joinpoint regression analysis, and age-period-cohort (A-P-C) modeling was employed to assess the effects of age, time period, and birth cohort on incidence rates.
    RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2019, an estimated 147,823 melanoma cases were diagnosed in Spain. The ASIRs showed a steady increase for both sexes, with slightly higher rates observed in men. Both men (average annual percentage change (AAPC): 2.8%) and women (AAPC: 2.4%) showed a steady increase in the ASIR over the period. Joinpoint analysis revealed distinct periods of incidence rate changes, with significant upward trends in earlier years followed by stabilization in recent years. Incidence rates increased steadily with age, with the highest rates in the 80-84 age group. Women tended to have slightly higher rates in younger age groups, while men had higher rates in older age groups. Both men and women experienced a steady increase in relative risk of melanoma throughout the 30-year study period, with significant upward trends across birth cohorts.
    CONCLUSIONS: Despite limitations, this study provides valuable insights into factors influencing melanoma incidence in Spain. By understanding age, period, and cohort effects, effective prevention strategies can be developed to reduce melanoma incidence.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:儿童白血病(CL)是全球范围内最普遍的儿科癌症。然而,对南美CL发病率的动态了解有限,在哥伦比亚有一个特定的知识差距。这项研究旨在确定CL发病率的趋势,并分析年龄的影响,period,和出生队列研究该人群白血病发病率的风险。
    方法:关于0-18岁居民中所有新诊断的白血病病例(一般和亚型)的信息,居住在卡利(2008-2017)的人口癌症登记处的服务地区,Bucaramanga(2000-2017),马尼萨莱斯(2003-2017),和Pasto(1998-2018)。使用连接点回归模型计算了发病率随时间的估计年度百分比变化(EAPC)以及这些EAPC斜率的潜在变化。年龄的影响,period,和队列的CL发病率趋势使用年龄-时间段-队列模型进行评估,通过应用双重差异解决可识别性问题.
    结果:共发现966例儿童白血病病例。计算并表达了每100,000人年白血病的平均标准化发病率(ASIR)-观察到卡利的ASIR为4.46,7.27在布卡拉曼加,马尼萨莱斯3.89和帕斯托4.06。关于CL趋势,EAPC在不同时期没有统计学上的显著变化,然而,当按白血病亚型分析时,在ALL和AML的EAPC中观察到统计学上显著的变化.对年龄周期队列模型的分析显示,年龄相关因素显着支撑了这四个哥伦比亚城市儿童白血病的发病率趋势。
    结论:这项研究为哥伦比亚四个主要城市儿童白血病的发病趋势提供了有价值的见解。分析显示,不同时期的整体CL发病率稳定,主要受年龄相关因素和不存在队列和时期效应的影响。此信息对于哥伦比亚的CL诊断和治疗的监视和计划目的很有用。
    BACKGROUND: Childhood leukemia (CL) is the most prevalent form of pediatric cancer on a global scale. However, there is a limited understanding of the dynamics of CL incidence in South America, with a specific knowledge gap in Colombia. This study aimed to identify trends in CL incidence and to analyze the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on the risk of leukemia incidence in this population.
    METHODS: Information on all newly diagnosed leukemia cases (in general and by subtype) among residents aged 0-18 years and living in the serving areas of population-based cancer registries of Cali (2008-2017), Bucaramanga (2000-2017), Manizales (2003-2017), and Pasto (1998-2018). Estimated annual percent changes (EAPC) in incidence over time and potential changes in the slope of these EAPCs were calculated using joinpoint regression models. The effects of age, period, and cohort in CL incidence trends were evaluated using age-period-cohort models addressing the identifiability issue through the application of double differences.
    RESULTS: A total of 966 childhood leukemia cases were identified. The average standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of leukemia was calculated and expressed per 100,000 person-years - observing ASIR of 4.46 in Cali, 7.27 in Bucaramanga, 3.89 in Manizales and 4.06 in Pasto. Concerning CL trends there were no statistically significant changes in EAPC throughout the different periods, however, when analyzed by leukemia subtype, statistically significant changes were observed in the EAPC for both ALL and AML. Analysis of age-period-cohort models revealed that age-related factors significantly underpin the incidence trends of childhood leukemia in these four Colombian cities.
    CONCLUSIONS: This study offers valuable insights into the incidence trends of childhood leukemia in four major Colombian cities. The analysis revealed stable overall CL incidence rates across varying periods, predominantly influenced by age-related factors and the absence of cohort and period effects. This information is useful for surveillance and planning purposes for CL diagnosis and treatment in Colombia.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:我们旨在研究年龄的影响,诊断年(日历期)和出生年(队列)在Golestan妇女中乳腺癌的发病率趋势,伊朗东北部,2004-2018。
    方法:发病率数据是按居住状况(城市/农村)和民族地区(土库曼斯坦/非土库曼斯坦)获得的。我们计算了每100,000人年的年龄标准化发病率(ASR)。计算了估计的年度百分比变化(EAPC),和年龄-时期-队列(APC)模型,以评估时期和队列的非线性效应作为发病率比(IRRs)。
    结果:Golestan女性乳腺癌病例总数,2004-2018年为3853,总体ASR为31.3。我们发现,与农村地区(20.8)和土库曼斯坦地区(20.2)相比,城市人口(40.5)和非土库曼斯坦地区(38.5)的比率更高,分别。总体发病率呈上升趋势(EAPC=4.4;95CI:2.2,6.7),随着农村地区变化更大(EAPC=5.1),特别是在非土库曼人(EAPC=5.8)中。APC分析的结果表明,随着连续出生队列中IRR的增加,存在显着的非线性队列效应(IRR=0.1和IRR=2.6对于年龄最大和最小的出生队列与参考出生队列,分别)。
    结论:我们发现,在研究期间,Golestan女性的乳腺癌发病率有增加的趋势,居住地区和民族地区的模式和趋势存在差异。观察到的队列效应表明,伊朗人群中乳腺癌关键危险因素的患病率增加。有必要进行进一步的调查,以澄清该地区生殖因素等决定因素与种族之间的关系。
    BACKGROUND: We aimed to examine the effects of age, diagnosis year (calendar period) and birth year (cohort) on the incidence trends of breast cancer among Golestan women, Northeast Iran, 2004-2018.
    METHODS: Incidence data were obtained by residential status (urban/rural) and ethnic region (Turkmens/non-Turkmens). We calculated age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) per 100,000 person-years. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were calculated, and age-period-cohort (APC) models fitted to assess non-linear effects of period and cohort as incidence rate ratios (IRRs).
    RESULTS: The total number of female breast cancer cases in Golestan, 2004-2018, were 3853, with an overall ASR of 31.3. We found higher rates in urban population (40.5) and non-Turkmens region (38.5) compared to rural area (20.8) and Turkmens region (20.2), respectively. There were increasing trends in incidence rates overall (EAPC= 4.4; 95%CI: 2.2, 6.7), with greater changes in rural areas (EAPC=5.1), particularly among non-Turkmens (EAPC=5.8). The results of the APC analysis indicate the presence of significant non-linear cohort effects with increasing IRRs across successive birth cohorts (IRR=0.1 and IRR= 2.6 for the oldest and the youngest birth cohorts vs. the reference birth cohort, respectively).
    CONCLUSIONS: We found increasing trends in breast cancer incidence among Golestan women over the study period, with disparities in patterns and trends by residence area and ethnic region. The observed cohort effects suggest an increasing prevalence of key risk factors for breast cancer in this Iranian population. Further investigations are warranted to clarify the relationships between determinants such as reproductive factors and ethnicity in the region.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    睾丸癌(TCA)是一种罕见的恶性肿瘤,影响全球年轻男性。社会人口因素,特别是社会经济水平(SEL)和医疗保健准入,似乎影响TCA的发生率和结果,特别是在西班牙裔人群中。然而,有限的研究在西班牙裔人群中探索了这些变量。这项研究旨在调查墨西哥的社会人口统计学和临床因素及其在西班牙裔TCA患者健康差异中的作用。我们回顾性分析了2007年至2020年间来自国家参考癌症中心的具有不同社会背景的代表性队列的244例墨西哥TCA病例。Logistic回归确定死亡的危险因素:非精原细胞瘤组织学,高级阶段,和较低的教育水平。年龄作为危险因素表现出显著趋势。患者延误和医疗距离缺乏显著关联。在晚期,治疗反应不足和化疗耐药的可能性更大。而高等教育对治疗反应有积极影响。Cox回归突出非精原细胞瘤组织学,低于中位数的SEL,高等教育,和晚期生存率。基于肿瘤组织学和患者SEL出现生存差异。这项研究强调了整合社会人口统计学、生物,和环境因素来解决健康差异,通过个性化干预改善西班牙裔TCA患者的结局。
    Testicular cancer (TCa) is a rare malignancy affecting young men worldwide. Sociodemographic factors, especially socioeconomic level (SEL) and healthcare access, seem to impact TCa incidence and outcomes, particularly among Hispanic populations. However, limited research has explored these variables in Hispanic groups. This study aimed to investigate sociodemographic and clinical factors in Mexico and their role in health disparities among Hispanic TCa patients. We retrospectively analyzed 244 Mexican TCa cases between 2007 and 2020 of a representative cohort with diverse social backgrounds from a national reference cancer center. Logistic regression identified risk factors for fatality: non-seminoma histology, advanced stage, and lower education levels. Age showed a significant trend as a risk factor. Patient delay and healthcare distance lacked significant associations. Inadequate treatment response and chemotherapy resistance were more likely in advanced stages, while higher education positively impacted treatment response. Cox regression highlighted non-seminoma histology, below-median SEL, higher education, and advanced-stage survival rates. Survival disparities emerged based on tumor histology and patient SEL. This research underscores the importance of comprehensive approaches that integrate sociodemographic, biological, and environmental factors to address health disparities improving outcomes through personalized interventions in Hispanic individuals with TCa.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    由于关于发病率的模糊和广泛争论的观察,趋势,和TC的管理,我们进行了这个分析。我们提请注意一些事件,如“癌症筛查活动”,将具有乳头状样核特征(NIFTP)的非侵袭性滤泡性肿瘤引入TC类型,甲状腺乳头状微小癌(PTMC)主动监测(AS)的可能性,中医治疗管理中个性化用药的发生,and,最后,COVID-19大流行时间。由于认为所有更改主要是由PTC进行的,我们将其与其余类型的TC进行了比较,临床和病理特征,和治疗。我们分析了在东欧(波兰)的单个手术中心接受治疗的患者。当COVID-19大流行持续时,TC的患病率从2008年的5.15%显著上升至2015年的13.84%,然后在2022年显著下降至1.33%(p<0.0001)。PTC也观察到了类似的趋势,当发病率在2015年显著上升至13.99%,然后在2022年下降至1.38%(p<0.0001)。当时,引入了NIFTP类别,并开始观察PTMC。直到2015年,FTC和MTC的患病率也有所增加,然后有所下降。年龄差异显著,手术类型,再次手术的必要性,观察到PTCs和其他类型的TC之间的pTNM。PTC患者的平均年龄显着低于其余TC类型的患者(p<0.0001)。四个里程碑,包括NIFTP介绍,PTMCAS的可能性,个性化癌症医学,和COVID-19大流行,可能影响了TC的一般统计数据。
    Because of ambiguous and widely debated observations concerning the incidence, trend, and management of TC, we performed this analysis. We drew attention to some events, such as \"cancer screening activity\", introduction of noninvasive follicular neoplasm with papillary-like nuclear features (NIFTP) to TC types, possibility of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) active surveillance (AS), occurrence of personalized medicine in TC management, and, finally, COVID-19 pandemic time. Because of the opinion that all changes have been made mostly by PTC, we compared it to the remaining types of TC in terms of incidence, clinical and pathological characteristics, and treatment. We analyzed patients treated in a single surgical center in eastern Europe (Poland). The prevalence of TC significantly increased from 5.15% in 2008 to 13.84% in 2015, and then significantly decreased to 1.33% in 2022 when the COVID-19 pandemic lasted (p < 0.0001). A similar trend was observed for PTC, when the incidence significantly increased to 13.99% in 2015 and then decreased to 1.38% in 2022 (p < 0.0001). At that time, the NIFTP category was introduced, and observation of PTMC began. The prevalence of FTC and MTC also increased until 2015 and then decreased. Significant differences in age, types of surgery, necessity of reoperation, and pTNM between PTCs and other types of TCs were observed. The average age was significantly lower in PTC patients than in patients with the remaining types of TC (p < 0.0001). Four milestones, including NIFTP introduction, the possibility of PTMC AS, personalized cancer medicine, and the COVID-19 pandemic, may have influenced the general statistics of TC.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    血液肿瘤(HNs)是全球范围内第一种也是最常见的儿童癌症。目前,在西班牙儿科人群中,缺乏关于这些癌症发病率的最新人群数据.本研究旨在使用西班牙癌症登记网络的数据描述西班牙儿童(0-14岁)HN的发病率和发病率趋势,并将结果与其他南欧国家进行比较。
    数据来自1983年至2018年之间的15个西班牙人群癌症登记处。病例根据国际肿瘤疾病分类进行编码,第三版,第一次修订,并根据国际儿童癌症分类进行分组,第三版。原油利率(CR),特定年龄的比率,使用2013年欧洲人口(ASRE)计算和年龄标准化的发病率,并表示为每1,000,000儿童年的病例。估计了发病率趋势和年度百分比变化(APC)。
    总共记录了4,747个HN(59.5%的男孩)。年龄分布[n(%)]如下:<1岁,266(5.6%);1-4年,1,726(36.4%);5-9年,1,442(30.4%);10-14年,1313(27.6%)。白血病是最常见的群体,CR和ASRE为44.0(95CI:42.5;45.5)和44.1(95CI:42.6;45.7),分别。淋巴瘤的CR和ASRE分别为20.1(95CI:19.1;21.1)和20.0(95CI:19.0;21.1),分别。我们的结果与其他南欧国家的淋巴瘤发病率相似,虽然观察到白血病的一些差异。从1988年到2016年,男女白血病发病率趋势稳定。APC为0.0(95CI:-0.5;0.7),而在两个性别中,观察到淋巴瘤的总体持续增加,APC为1.0(95CI:0.4;1.6)。
    白血病是儿童中最常见的HN,自1988年以来,它们的发病率一直保持稳定,而淋巴瘤的发病率每年都在增加。淋巴瘤的发病率与其他南欧国家一样,而白血病的发病率仅与欧洲西南部国家相似。合作癌症登记项目允许评估癌症的流行病学指标,如HNs,这有助于卫生当局和临床医生提供更多关于这些恶性肿瘤的知识。
    UNASSIGNED: Hematological neoplasms (HNs) are the first and most common childhood cancers globally. Currently, there is a lack of updated population-based data on the incidence of these cancers in the Spanish pediatric population. This study aimed to describe the incidence and incidence trends of HNs in children (0-14 years) in Spain using data from the Spanish Network of Cancer Registries and to compare the results with other southern European countries.
    UNASSIGNED: Data were extracted from 15 Spanish population-based cancer registries between 1983 and 2018. Cases were coded according to the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, third edition, first revision, and grouped according to the International Classification of Childhood Cancer, third edition. Crude rates (CRs), age-specific rates, and age-standardized incidence rates using the 2013 European population (ASRE) were calculated and expressed as cases per 1,000,000 child-years. Incidence trends and annual percentage changes (APCs) were estimated.
    UNASSIGNED: A total of 4,747 HNs were recorded (59.5% boys). Age distribution [n (%)] was as follows: <1 year, 266 (5.6%); 1-4 years, 1,726 (36.4%); 5-9 years, 1,442 (30.4%); and 10-14 years, 1,313 (27.6%). Leukemias were the most common group, with a CR and an ASRE of 44.0 (95%CI: 42.5; 45.5) and 44.1 (95%CI: 42.6; 45.7), respectively. The CR and ASRE of lymphomas were 20.1 (95%CI: 19.1; 21.1) and 20.0 (95%CI: 19.0; 21.1), respectively. The comparable incidence rates between our results and those of other southern European countries were similar for lymphomas, while some differences were observed for leukemias. From 1988 to 2016, the trend in leukemia incidence was stable for both sexes, with an APC of 0.0 (95%CI: -0.5; 0.7), whereas a constant overall increase was observed for lymphoma in both sexes, with an APC of 1.0 (95%CI: 0.4; 1.6).
    UNASSIGNED: Leukemias are the most common HNs in children, and their incidence has remained stable since 1988, whereas the incidence of lymphomas has increased every year. Lymphoma incidence is like that of other southern European countries, while leukemia incidence is similar only to that of southwestern European countries. Collaborative cancer registry projects allow for assessing epidemiological indicators for cancers such as HNs, which helps health authorities and clinicians provide more knowledge about these malignancies.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:我们调查了包括年龄在内的因素的影响,出生年(队列)和诊断年(期间)结直肠癌(CRC)发病率趋势在Golestan,伊朗东北部,2004-2018。
    方法:我们从基于Golestan人群的癌症登记处获得了按性别和居住地(城市/农村)划分的CRC发病率数据。年龄标准化的发病率(ASR)是使用世界标准人群计算的,并以每100,000人年表示。我们使用95%置信区间(95%CI)拟合的年龄周期队列(APC)模型计算了估计的年度百分比变化(EAPC),以评估非线性周期和队列效应作为发生率比率(IRR)。
    结果:总体而言,2004-2018年,在GPCR中登记了2839例新的CRC病例(ASR=13.7)。我们的研究结果表明,从2004年到2018年,CRC发病率呈显著上升趋势(EAPC=3.7;95CI:0.4,7.1)。农村妇女的变化最大(EAPC=4.7;95CI:0.4、9.2)。我们观察到一个强大的队列效应,在连续的出生队列中IRR持续增加,从最老的出生队列(1924年)(IRR=0.1与1955年的参考出生队列)开始到1983年出生的最新队列(IRR=1.9).在农村女性中发现了最大的队列效应(IRR=0.0,IRR=2.5,年龄最大和年龄最小的出生队列与参考出生队列,分别)。
    结论:在Golestan中,CRC发病率的增加趋势很大程度上是由暴露于潜在风险因素的代际变化所驱动的。有必要进行进一步的调查,以提供有效的预防策略来控制Golestan的CRC。
    We investigated the effects of factors including age, birth year (cohort) and diagnosis year (period) on colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence trends in Golestan, Northeast of Iran, 2004-2018.
    We obtained data on incidence cases of CRC from the Golestan Population-based Cancer Registry by sex and area of residence (urban/rural). Age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) were calculated using the World standard population and presented per 100,000 person-years. We calculated the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) with 95 % confidence intervals (95 % CI) fitted age-period-cohort (APC) models to assess non-linear period and cohort effects as incidence rate ratios (IRRs).
    Overall, 2839 new cases of CRC (ASR = 13.7) were registered in the GPCR over 2004-2018. Our findings suggested significantly increasing trends in CRC incidence rates from 2004 to 2018 (EAPC = 3.7; 95%CI: 0.4, 7.1), with the greatest changes occurring in rural women (EAPC= 4.7; 95%CI: 0.4, 9.2). We observed a strong cohort effect with a consistent increase in the IRR across successive birth cohorts, starting with the oldest birth cohort (1924) (IRR= 0.1 versus the reference birth cohort of 1955) through to the most recent cohort born in 1983 (IRR= 1.9). The largest cohort effects were found among rural females (IRR = 0.0, and IRR = 2.5 for the oldest and the youngest birth cohorts vs. the reference birth cohort, respectively).
    The increasing trends in CRC rates in Golestan are largely driven by generational changes in exposure to underlying risk factors. Further investigations are warranted to deliver effective prevention strategies for the control of CRC in Golestan.
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    文章类型: Journal Article
    骨髓增生异常综合征(MDS),监测中的一组可报告的恶性肿瘤,流行病学,和2001年以来的最终结果(SEER)计划,是人们对肿瘤知之甚少。自从它们成为可报告的以来,已经有了几次更新,在2010年及以后的诊断病例中引入了一些变化。没有人长期检查MDS发病率模式的变化,考虑这些变化。
    本分析的目的是通过人口统计学特征和组织学评估2001年至2016年MDS发病率的变化,应用2010年实施的编码变更。
    2001-2016年期间的发病率-SEER21地区数据用于使用SEER*Stat8.3.6版估计发病率。包括在此期间诊断为MDS的病例,具有以下国际肿瘤学疾病分类,第3版(ICD-O-3)组织学编码:9980、9982-9986、9989和9991-9992。总人口的年发病率,以及人口统计学特征和组织学,估计。所有发病率均使用2000年美国标准人群(19个年龄组;人口普查P25-1130)进行年龄调整。
    在2001-2016年期间,共诊断出86,146例MDS病例,年龄调整后的发病率为每100,000人口4.7例。大多数(约61%)被归类为MDS,不可分类(MDS-U,ICD-O-3:9989)。年利率从2001年的3.7/10万稳步上升到2010年的5.6/10万,然后下降到2016年的3.8/10万,形成倒V型模式。在男女和所有评估的种族和族裔群体中都观察到了这种模式,以及≥65岁年龄组。当通过组织学评估发病率时,对于MDS-U观察到这种模式,但不是其他亚型。
    MDS-U亚型主导了观察到的事件发生率趋势。自2010年以来,费率下降很可能是由于2010年引入的编码和诊断标准发生了变化。有必要进行进一步分析,以最终确定导致观察到的变化的所有因素。
    UNASSIGNED: Myelodysplastic syndromes (MDSs), a group of reportable malignancies in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program since 2001, are poorly understood neoplasms. There have been several updates since they became reportable, with several changes introduced to cases diagnosed in 2010 and onwards. None have examined changes in patterns of MDS incidence over the long term, accounting for such changes.
    UNASSIGNED: The objective of this analysis was to assess changes in incidence of MDS from 2001 to 2016 by demographic characteristics and histology, applying coding changes implemented in 2010.
    UNASSIGNED: Incidence-SEER 21 region data for the 2001-2016 period were used to estimate incidence rates using SEER*Stat version 8.3.6. Cases were included that were diagnosed as MDS during this period having the following International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, 3rd edition (ICD-O-3) histology codes: 9980, 9982-9986, 9989, and 9991-9992. Annual incidence rates for the total population, as well as by demographic characteristics and histology, were estimated. All incidence rates were age adjusted using the 2000 US standard population (19 age groups; census P25-1130).
    UNASSIGNED: A total of 86,146 MDS cases were diagnosed during the 2001-2016 period, with an age-adjusted incidence rate of 4.7 cases per 100,000 population. The majority (~61%) were classified as MDS, unclassifiable (MDS-U, ICD-O-3: 9989). Annual rates steadily increased from 3.7 per 100,000 in 2001 to 5.6 per 100,000 in 2010, then declined to 3.8 per 100,000 in 2016, making an inverted V-shaped pattern. This pattern was observed for both sexes and all assessed racial and ethnic groups, as well as among the ≥65-year age groups. When the rates were assessed by histology, this pattern was observed for MDS-U, but not for other subtypes.
    UNASSIGNED: MDS-U subtype dominates the observed trend in incident rates. The decline in rates since 2010 is most likely due to changes in coding and diagnostic criteria introduced in 2010. Further analysis is warranted to conclusively determine all factors leading to the changes observed.
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