河水温度是河流生态系统的重要组成部分,关于渔业,人类健康,和营养的陆海交换,特别是对于火力发电厂直流冷却系统散发大量热量的大国。然而,在气候变化和人类活动如热量排放的共同作用下,河流水温的变化还没有得到很好的研究,阻碍可持续发展的环境政策制定。因此,我们利用最近开发的陆面模型,包括河流水温计算,人为热排放和地带学统计,定量地计算了过去三十年(1981-2010年)中的河流水温变化和人为影响。中国第一次。结果表明,主要河流的估计水温通常接近观测值,r2为0.83,尽管在某些河流中存在低估。珠江流域的河水最温暖,平均温度为19.2°C,其他依次为东南盆地,淮河流域,长江流域,海河流域,黄河流域,西南盆地,宋辽河流域,和大陆盆地,范围从16.7°C到6.3°C。淮河流域平均增长率约为最快。0.27°C十年-1,而平均增长率最慢。珠江流域存在0.13°C十年-1。在次流域尺度上,已确定水温升高的子午线分布的热点区域(沿115°E),趋势范围从0.2°Cdecade-1到0.5°Cdecade-1。气温对气候水温的空间格局有重要的控制作用,而气温和下降太阳通量在水温变化趋势的分布中起主导作用。尽管人为热排放在当地加热了河流,宋辽河的影响,海河,淮河,黄河和长江的中下游已经上升到大约。4.5°C,与仅受气候变化控制的情况相比。总的来说,这些结果表明了地表模型中河流水温模拟的可接受水平,为我国气候变化下的河流热环境评价和社会影响提供科学参考。
River water temperature is important and closely related to river ecosystem, concerning fishery industry, human health, and the land-sea exchange of nutrients, especially for great powers with a good deal of heat emission from once-through cooling systems of thermal power plants. However, the changes in river water temperature under the joint action of climate change and human activity such as the heat emission have not been well investigated for rising powers, hampering environmental policy making for sustainable development. Therefore, we have taken advantage of a recently-developed land surface model including river water temperature calculation with anthropogenic thermal discharge and zonal statistics to quantitatively make out the river water temperature variation and the man-made influence over the past thirty years (1981-2010) in China for the first time. Results show that the estimated water temperature in major rivers is generally close to the observation with the r2 of 0.83, though the underestimation exists in some rivers. The river water in the Pearl River Basin was the warmest with the mean temperature of 19.2 °C and the others in order were in the Southeast Basin, the Huaihe River Basin, the Yangtze River Basin, the Haihe River Basin, the Yellow River Basin, the Southwest Basin, the Song-Liao River Basin, and the Continental Basin, ranging from 16.7 °C to 6.3 °C. The Huaihe River Basin had the fastest mean increase rate of ca. 0.27 °C decade-1, while the slowest mean increase rate of ca. 0.13 °C decade-1 existed in the Pearl River Basin. At the subbasin scale, a meridionally-distributed hot spot zone (along the 115°E) of the increasing water temperature has been identified, where the trends ranged from 0.2 °C decade-1 to 0.5 °C decade-1. Air temperature exerted a major control on the spatial pattern of climatological water temperature, while both air temperature and downwelling solar flux played a leading role in the distribution of water temperature change trends. Although anthropogenic thermal emission heated the rivers locally, the impacts in the Song-Liao River, the Haihe River, the Huaihe River, and the middle and lower reaches of Yellow River and Yangtze River had been raised up to ca. 4.5 °C, when comparing with those controlled by climate change only. In general, these results show an acceptable level of river water temperature simulation in the land surface model, and could provide a scientific reference for the assessment on riverine thermal environment under the climate change and social impact in China.