■尽管国家努力淘汰,狗介导的狂犬病在菲律宾仍然很流行。通过广泛建立动物咬伤治疗中心(ABTC)免费提供暴露后预防(PEP),改善了可及性;然而,由此导致的PEP需求激增是不可持续的,人类狂犬病死亡仍在继续。狗的疫苗接种覆盖率仍然不足,目前尚不清楚监测是否有效。
■这里,我们使用综合咬伤病例管理(IBCM)在东方明多洛省收集了3年(2020-2022年)的强化狂犬病监测数据.适应概率决策树模型,我们估计了狂犬病的负担,评估的监测性能,分析了当前全省狂犬病防控实践的成本和效益。
■在东方民都洛省,接受PEP的咬伤患者的发生率很高(1,246/100,000人/年),尽管<3%的患者被认为是狂犬病暴露的高风险(24/100,000人/年)。使用决策树模型,我们估计,大约73.8%的可能狂犬病暴露患者寻求PEP(95%预测间隔,PrI:59.4%-81.1%),并且常规监测证实<2%的循环动物狂犬病病例,而IBCM导致病例检测增加近四倍。此外,我们估计,该省每年平均有560只(95%的PrI217-1090只)狗可能患上狂犬病,相当于每年每1000只狗3-5例。平均而言,PEP每年在东方Mindoro避免20至43人死亡,每年费用为582,110美元(即,每人51.44美元)或避免每次死亡20,190美元(95%PrI$11,565-79,400)。
■虽然菲律宾目前的PEP供应实践已经改善了访问,大部分暴露于狂犬病的人(>26%,95%PrI18.8%-40.1%)仍未寻求医疗保健。整合部门间监测系统,例如IBCM,如果实施得当,纳入国家政策可以大大提高案件检测,进一步的好处扩展到PEP管理的指导,潜在地减少PEP的不必要支出,和态势感知,通过大规模狗疫苗接种来控制狂犬病。
UNASSIGNED: Despite national elimination efforts, dog-mediated rabies remains endemic in the Philippines. Free provision of post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) through the widespread establishment of Animal Bite Treatment Centers (ABTCs) has improved accessibility; however, the resulting upsurge in PEP demand is not sustainable, and human rabies deaths continue. Dog vaccination coverage also remains inadequate, and it is unclear whether surveillance is effective.
UNASSIGNED: Here, we used Integrated Bite Case Management (IBCM) to collect enhanced rabies surveillance data in Oriental Mindoro Province over a 3-year period (2020-2022). Adapting a probabilistic decision tree model, we estimated the burden of rabies, evaluated surveillance performance, and analyzed the costs and benefits of current rabies prevention and control practices in the province.
UNASSIGNED: The incidence of bite patients receiving PEP was high in Oriental Mindoro Province (1,246/100,000 persons/year), though < 3% of presenting patients were deemed high-risk for rabies exposure (24/100,000 persons/year). Using a decision tree model, we estimated that around 73.8% of probable rabies-exposed patients sought PEP (95% Prediction Interval, PrI: 59.4%-81.1%) and that routine surveillance confirmed < 2% of circulating animal rabies cases, whereas IBCM resulted in a nearly fourfold increase in case detection. Furthermore, we estimated that an average of 560 (95% PrI 217-1,090) dogs may develop rabies annually in the province, equating to 3-5 cases per 1,000 dogs per year. On average, 20 to 43 human deaths were averted by PEP each year in Oriental Mindoro at an annual cost of $582,110 USD (i.e., $51.44 USD per person) or $20,190 USD (95% PrI $11,565-79,400) per death averted.
UNASSIGNED: While current practices for PEP provisioning in the Philippines have improved access, a large proportion of people exposed to rabies (> 26%, 95% PrI 18.8%-40.1%) are still not seeking healthcare. Integrating an intersectoral surveillance system, such as IBCM, into national policy could greatly improve case detection if well implemented, with further benefits extending to guidance for PEP administration, potentially reducing unnecessary expenditure on PEP, and situational awareness to inform control of rabies through mass dog vaccination.