Using the examples of plague, smallpox, and HIV/AIDS, the present essay argues for the benefits of incorporating the evolutionary histories of pathogens, beyond visible epidemic spikes within human populations, into our understanding of what pandemics actually are as epidemiological phenomena. The pandemic arc - which takes the pathogen as the defining \"actor\" in a pandemic, from emergence to local proliferation to globalization - offers a framework capable of bringing together disparate aspects not only of the manifestations of disease but also of human involvement in the pandemic process. Pathogens may differ, but there are common patterns in disease emergence and proliferation that distinguish those diseases that become pandemic, dispersed through human communities regionally or globally. The same methods of genomic analysis that allow tracking the evolutionary development of a modern pathogen such as SARS-CoV-2 also allow us to trace pandemics into the past. Reconstruction of these pandemic arcs brings new elements of these stories into view, recovering the experiences of regions and populations hitherto overlooked by Eurocentric narratives. This expanded global history of infectious diseases, in turn, lays a groundwork for reconceiving what ambitions a truly global health might aim for.

Circumstances that precipitate interactions among species that have never interacted during their evolutionary histories create ideal conditions for the generation of zoonoses. Zoonotic diseases have caused some of the most devastating epidemics in human history. Contact among species that come from different ecosystems or regions creates the risk of zoonoses. In certain situations, humans are generating and promoting conditions that contribute to the creation of infectious diseases and zoonoses. These conditions lead to interactions between wildlife species that have hitherto not interacted under normal circumstances. I call for recognition of the zoonotic potential that novel and unwanted interactions have; identification of these new interactions that are occurring among wild animals, domestic animals, and humans; and efforts to stop these kinds of interactions because they can give rise to zoonotic outbreaks. Live animal markets, the exotic pet trade, illegal wildlife trade, human use and consumption of wild animals, invasive non-native species, releasing of exotic pets, and human encroachment in natural areas are among the activities that cause the most interactions among wild species, domestic species, and humans. These activities should not occur and must be controlled efficiently to prevent future epidemic zoonoses. Society must develop a keen ability to identify these unnatural interactions and prevent them. Controlling these interactions and efficiently addressing their causal factors will benefit human health and, in some cases, lead to positive environmental, ethical, and socioeconomic outcomes. Until these actions are taken, humanity will face future zoonoses and zoonotic pandemic.
Evitar interacciones novedosas e indeseadas entre especies para disminuir el riesgo de zoonosis Resumen Las circunstancias que promueven interacciones entre especies que nunca han interactuado durante sus historias evolutivas crean condiciones ideales para la generación de zoonosis. Las enfermedades zoonóticas han causado algunas de las epidemias más devastadoras en la historia de la humanidad. El contacto entre especies que provienen de diferentes ecosistemas o regiones crea el riesgo de zoonosis. En determinadas situaciones, los seres humanos estamos generando y promoviendo condiciones que contribuyen a la creación de enfermedades infecciosas y zoonosis. Estas condiciones conducen a interacciones entre especies silvestres que hasta ahora no habían interactuado en circunstancias normales. Hago un llamado para que se reconozca el potencial zoonótico que tienen las interacciones nuevas y no deseadas; que se identifiquen estas nuevas interacciones que provocamos entre animales silvestres, animales domésticos y humanos; y esforzarnos para detener este tipo de interacciones porque pueden dar lugar a brotes zoonóticos. Los mercados de animales vivos, el comercio de mascotas exóticas, el comercio ilegal de vida silvestre, el uso y consumo humano de animales silvestres, las especies invasoras no nativas, la liberación de mascotas exóticas y la invasión humana en áreas naturales, se encuentran entre las actividades que causan la mayor cantidad de interacciones entre especies silvestres, especies domésticas y humanos. Estas actividades no deberían ocurrir y deben controlarse eficientemente para prevenir futuras zoonosis epidémicas. La sociedad debe desarrollar una gran capacidad para identificar estas interacciones antinaturales y prevenirlas. Controlar estas interacciones y abordar eficientemente sus factores causales beneficiará la salud humana y, en algunos casos, conducirá a resultados ambientales, éticos y socioeconómicos positivos. Mientras estas medidas no se tomen, la humanidad enfrentará futuras zoonosis y pandemias zoonóticas.

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has been characterized by the repeated emergence of genetically distinct virus variants of increased transmissibility and immune evasion compared to pre-existing lineages. In many countries, their containment required the intervention of public health authorities and the imposition of control measures. While the primary role of testing is to identify infection, target treatment, and limit spread (through isolation and contact tracing), a secondary benefit is in terms of surveillance and the early detection of new variants. Here we study the spatial invasion and early spread of the Alpha, Delta and Omicron (BA.1 and BA.2) variants in England from September 2020 to February 2022 using the random neighbourhood covering (RaNCover) method. This is a statistical technique for the detection of aberrations in spatial point processes, which we tailored here to community PCR (polymerase-chain-reaction) test data where the TaqPath kit provides a proxy measure of the switch between variants. Retrospectively, RaNCover detected the earliest signals associated with the four novel variants that led to large infection waves in England. With suitable data our method therefore has the potential to rapidly detect outbreaks of future SARS-CoV-2 variants, thus helping to inform targeted public health interventions.

Emerging infectious diseases are a major challenge to human and animal health. While predicting the emergence of pathogens is complex, the advent of high-throughput sequencing technologies has allowed the rapid identification of unknown microbiology diversity within organisms. Here, we discuss an example of a metatranscriptomics output to decipher viral evolution.

Across a species\' range, populations are exposed to their local thermal environments, which on an evolutionary scale, may cause adaptative differences among populations. Helminths often have broad geographic ranges and temperature-sensitive life stages but little is known about whether and how local thermal adaptation can influence their response to climate change. We studied the thermal responses of the free-living stages of Marshallagia marshalli, a parasitic nematode of wild ungulates, along a latitudinal gradient. We first determine its distribution in wild sheep species in North America. Then we cultured M. marshalli eggs from different locations at temperatures from 5 to 38°C. We fit performance curves based on the metabolic theory of ecology to determine whether development and mortality showed evidence of local thermal adaptation. We used parameter estimates in life-cycle-based host-parasite models to understand how local thermal responses may influence parasite performance under general and location-specific climate-change projections. We found that M. marshalli has a wide latitudinal and host range, infecting wild sheep species from New Mexico to Yukon. Increases in mortality and development time at higher temperatures were most evident for isolates from northern locations. Accounting for location-specific parasite parameters primarily influenced the magnitude of climate change parasite performance, while accounting for location-specific climates primarily influenced the phenology of parasite performance. Despite differences in development and mortality among M. marshalli populations, when using site-specific climate change projections, there was a similar magnitude of impact on the relative performance of M. marshalli among populations. Climate change is predicted to decrease the expected lifetime reproductive output of M. marshalli in all populations while delaying its seasonal peak by approximately 1 month. Our research suggests that accurate projections of the impacts of climate change on broadly distributed species need to consider local adaptations of organisms together with local temperature profiles and climate projections.

The repeated emergence of new genetic variants of PRRSV-2, the virus that causes porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS), reflects its rapid evolution and the failure of previous control efforts. Understanding spatiotemporal heterogeneity in variant emergence and spread is critical for future outbreak prevention. Here, we investigate how the pace of evolution varies across time and space, identify the origins of sub-lineage emergence, and map the patterns of the inter-regional spread of PRRSV-2 Lineage 1 (L1)-the current dominant lineage in the U.S. We performed comparative phylogeographic analyses on subsets of 19,395 viral ORF5 sequences collected across the U.S. and Canada between 1991 and 2021. The discrete trait analysis of multiple spatiotemporally stratified sampled sets (n = 500 each) was used to infer the ancestral geographic region and dispersion of each sub-lineage. The robustness of the results was compared to that of other modeling methods and subsampling strategies. Generally, the spatial spread and population dynamics varied across sub-lineages, time, and space. The Upper Midwest was a main spreading hotspot for multiple sub-lineages, e.g., L1C and L1F, though one of the most recent emergence events (L1A(2)) spread outwards from the east. An understanding of historical patterns of emergence and spread can be used to strategize disease control and the containment of emerging variants.

The perfect storm model that was elaborated for the HIV-1M pandemic has also been used to explain the emergence of HIV-2, a second human immunodeficiency virus-acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV-AIDS) that became an epidemic in Guinea-Bissau, West Africa. The use of this model creates epidemiological generalizations, ecological oversimplifications and historical misunderstandings as its assumptions-an urban center with explosive population growth, a high level of commercial sex and a surge in STDs, a network of mechanical transport and country-wide, en masse mobile campaigns-are absent from the historical record. This model fails to explain how the HIV-2 epidemic actually came about. This is the first study to conduct an exhaustive examination of sociohistorical contextual developments and align them with environmental, virological and epidemiological data. The interdisciplinary dialogue indicates that the emergence of the HIV-2 epidemic piggybacked on local sociopolitical transformations. The war\'s indirect effects on ecological relations, mobility and sociability were acute in rural areas and are a key to the HIV-2 epidemic. This setting had the natural host of the virus, the population numbers, the mobility trends and the use of technology on a scale needed to foster viral adaptation and amplification. The present analysis suggests new reflections on the processes of zoonotic spillovers and disease emergence.

UNASSIGNED: This study was to analyze the responses of informants about Instagram infographics on Covid-19 prevention for pregnant women.
UNASSIGNED: This was a qualitative study that used Rapid Assessment Procedure (RAP) and used pretesting communication theory. The informant selection technique was purposive sampling that consist of three pregnant women as main informants, a midwifery lecturer and a visual graphic designer as key informants. One-to-one pretesting communication procedure was selected because the research was conducted at the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, so it had a difficulty in recruiting informants. The interview guideline was conducted by the research team and was examined in a field trial. Data collection was by semi-structured interview using voice call WhatsApp application. Data were analysed using thematic analysis.
UNASSIGNED: In attraction aspect, this was considered quite interesting by the informants. In comprehension aspect, the messages were easily understood because of using brief, concise, and simple sentences. Furthermore, the messages were supported by images and comprehensive. In acceptance aspect, all the informants\' opinions were identified that the messages of this infographic did not have a conflict with the existing norms. In self-involvement aspect, this infographic was in accordance with the current condition of the informants. In persuasion aspect, it had a good persuasive value as the informants were willing to share the infographic with others.
UNASSIGNED: The infographic still needed improvements from the attraction aspect such as consider using contrasting colour between the background and text, equalize the font size and change icons to become related to the text. As from the comprehension aspect consider using terms that are more popular in the community. There were no need improvements from acceptance, self-involvement, and persuasion aspects. However, evidence-based research is still needed on how this infographic is developed and implemented to optimize transfer of knowledge.

The past few decades have been marked by drastic modifications to the landscape by anthropogenic processes, leading to increased variability in the environment. For populations that thrive at their distributional boundaries, these changes can affect them drastically, as Schmalhausen\'s law predicts that their dynamics are more likely to be susceptible to environmental variation. Recently, this evolutionary theory has been put to the test in vector-borne disease emergences systems, and has been demonstrated effective in predicting emergence patterns. However, it has yet to be tested in a directly transmitted pathogen. Here, we provide a preliminary test of Schmalhausen\'s law using data on Marburg virus outbreaks originating from spillover events. By combining the two important aspects of Schmalhausen\'s law, namely climatic anomalies and distance to species distributional edges, we show that Marburgvirus outbreaks may support an aspect of this evolutionary theory, with distance to species distributional edge having a weak influence on outbreak size. However, we failed to demonstrate any effect of climatic anomalies on Marburgvirus outbreaks, arguably related to the lack of importance of these variables in directly transmitted pathogen outbreaks. With increasing zoonotic spillover events occurring from wild species, we highlight the importance of considering ecological variability to better predict emergence patterns.

Flies form high-density associations with human settlements and groups of nonhuman primates and are implicated in transmitting pathogens. We investigate the movement of nonhuman primate-associated flies across landscapes surrounding Kibale National Park, Uganda, using a mark-recapture experiment. Flies were marked in nine nonhuman primate groups at the forest edge ([Formula: see text] = 929 flies per group), and we then attempted to recapture them in more anthropized areas (50 m, 200 m and 500 m from where marked; 2-21 days after marking). Flies marked in nonhuman primate groups were recaptured in human areas (19/28,615 recaptured). Metabarcoding of the flies in nonhuman primate groups revealed the DNA of multiple eukaryotic primate parasites. Taken together, these results demonstrate the potential of flies to serve as vectors between nonhuman primates, livestock and humans at this biodiverse interface.