climate mitigation

气候缓解
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:上天生物圈和局部排放的温室气体观测(GOBLEU)是日本宇宙航空研究开发机构(JAXA)和ANAHOLDINGINC的新联合项目。(ANAHD),运营ANA航班。GOBLEU旨在通过收集温室气体(GHG)数据以及相关排放数据(二氧化亚氮,NO2)和去除(太阳诱导荧光,SIF)来自定期客运航班。我们基于JAXA为日本温室气体观测卫星(GOSAT)开发的空间遥感技术开发了一种行李大小的仪器。该仪器可以方便地安装在教练级乘客座椅上,而无需修改座椅或飞机。
    结果:在从东京羽田机场飞往福冈机场的航班上进行了首次GOBLEU观测,只有NO2模块被激活。将收集到的高空间分辨率NO2数据与来自TROPOMI卫星的数据和来自地面空气质量监测站的地面NO2数据进行了比较。虽然GOBLEU和TROPOMI数据分享了主要由城市和大型点源驱动的主要集中模式,不管不同的观察时间,我们发现了精细尺度的浓度模式差异,这可能表明GOBLEU有可能带来新的排放信息,因此值得进一步研究。我们还表征了随时间变化的NO2空间相关性水平。GOBLEU和TROPOMI的相关性水平迅速下降表明,CO2和NO2之间的时间差作为排放标记物可能会产生重大影响,因此,未来太空任务计划的同一地点观测的重要性。
    结论:GOBLEU提出了基于飞机的,成本效益高,定期客机上携带的GOBLEU仪器经常监测温室气体排放。理论上,GOBLEU仪器可以在大多数商业使用的客机上安装和操作,而无需修改。JAXA和ANAHD希望通过加强《巴黎协定》下的国际合作,将观测范围和伙伴关系扩大到其他国家,从而促进观测技术。
    BACKGROUND: The Greenhouse gas Observations of Biospheric and Local Emissions from the Upper sky (GOBLEU) is a new joint project by Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) and ANA HOLDING INC. (ANAHD), which operates ANA flights. GOBLEU aims to visualizes our climate mitigation effort progress in support of subnational climate mitigation by collecting greenhouse gas (GHG) data as well as relevant data for emissions (nitrous dioxide, NO2) and removals (Solar-Induced Fluorescence, SIF) from regular passenger flights. We developed a luggage-sized instrument based on the space remote-sensing techniques that JAXA has developed for Japan\'s Greenhouse gas Observing SATellite (GOSAT). The instrument can be conveniently installed on a coach-class passenger seat without modifying the seat or the aircraft.
    RESULTS: The first GOBLEU observation was made on the flight from the Tokyo Haneda Airport to the Fukuoka Airport, with only the NO2 module activated. The collected high-spatial-resolution NO2 data were compared to that from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) satellite and surface NO2 data from ground-based air quality monitoring stations. While GOBLEU and TROPOMI data shared the major concentration patterns largely driven by cities and large point sources, regardless of different observation times, we found fine-scale concentration pattern differences, which might be an indication of potential room for GOBLEU to bring in new emission information and thus is worth further examination. We also characterized the levels of NO2 spatial correlation that change over time. The quickly degrading correlation level of GOBLEU and TROPOMI suggests a potentially significant impact of the time difference between CO2 and NO2 as an emission marker and, thus, the significance of co-located observations planned by future space missions.
    CONCLUSIONS: GOBLEU proposes aircraft-based, cost-effective, frequent monitoring of greenhouse emissions by GOBLEU instruments carried on regular passenger aircraft. Theoretically, the GOBLEU instrument can be installed and operated in most commercially used passenger aircraft without modifications. JAXA and ANAHD wish to promote the observation technique by expanding the observation coverage and partnership to other countries by enhancing international cooperation under the Paris Agreement.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    全球农业副产品通常会被浪费掉,特别是在发展中国家,农产品通常作为原材料出口。这样的废物流,一旦转换为“增值”产品,就可以成为额外的收入来源,同时对当地人民的社会经济福祉产生积极影响。我们强调利用热化学技术来活化和转化农业废物流,如水稻和稻草壳,椰子纤维,咖啡废料,和世界上常见的豆渣发电废物变成多孔活性炭和生物燃料。这种活性炭适用于环境修复中的各种应用,气候缓解,储能,以及电池和超级电容器等转换,在提高作物生产力和生产有用的生物燃料方面。
    Global agricultural by-products usually go to waste, especially in developing countries where agricultural products are usually exported as raw products. Such waste streams, once converted to \"value-added\" products could be an additional source of revenue while simultaneously having positive impacts on the socio-economic well-being of local people. We highlight the utilization of thermochemical techniques to activate and convert agricultural waste streams such as rice and straw husk, coconut fiber, coffee wastes, and okara power wastes commonly found in the world into porous activated carbons and biofuels. Such activated carbons are suitable for various applications in environmental remediation, climate mitigation, energy storage, and conversions such as batteries and supercapacitors, in improving crop productivity and producing useful biofuels.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    将气候变化与粮食系统联系起来的科学研究,营养和营养相关健康(FSNH)激增,显示双向和复合的依赖关系,为人类和行星健康带来级联风险。在这种扩散中,目前还不清楚哪些证据应该优先采取行动,哪些研究空白,如果填充,将催化最大的影响。我们系统地搜索了与FSNH相关的综合文献(即综述),在2018年1月1日之后发布。我们筛选并提取了这些评论的特征,并将它们映射到交互式证据和差距图(EGM)中,辅以专家咨询。844份综合报告符合纳入标准(来自2,739份记录),并被纳入EGM。最大的一组报告是描述气候对作物和动物源食品(ASF)生产的影响的报告,以及此类排放(86%)。相对较少报告评估气候变化对营养相关健康的影响,或食品制造,processing,storage,和交通。报告侧重于气候适应战略(40%),缓解(29%),两者(19%)或无(12%)。只有四分之一的报告对股权进行了批判性评估(25%),较少报告表明,公平和公平做法的变化将改变气候-FSNH动态(6%)。专家咨询反映了临时首脑会议的结果,和进一步的背景研究结果。这张新地图描述了将气候变化与FSNH联系起来的广泛研究景观。我们确定了四个关键的研究空白,包括1)对整个食物系统或收获后要素的研究2)评估气候变化与营养相关健康结果之间关系的研究,特别是在弱势群体中;3)有希望的方法(和所需的额外数据),可以a)确定拐点或干预杠杆,B)纳入复杂的动态和表征权衡,c)在特定上下文中理解和应用,本地化的决策方式;和4)通过跨学科合作进行的研究,使产生和转化证据为行动,尤其是那些天生考虑联合制作和公平的人。
    Scientific research linking climate change to food systems, nutrition, and nutrition-related health (FSNH) has proliferated, showing bidirectional and compounding dependencies that create cascading risks for human and planetary health. Within this proliferation, it is unclear which evidence to prioritize for action and which research gaps, if filled, would catalyze the most impact. We systematically searched for synthesis literature (i.e., reviews) related to FSNH published after 1 January, 2018. We screened and extracted characteristics of these reviews and mapped them in an interactive Evidence and Gap Map (EGM) supplemented by expert consultation. Eight hundred forty-four synthesis reports met inclusion criteria (from 2739 records) and were included in the EGM. The largest clusters of reports were those describing climate impacts on crop and animal-source food production and emissions from such (86%). Comparatively few reports assessed climate change impacts on nutrition-related health or food manufacture, processing, storage, and transportation. Reports focused on strategies of climate adaptation (40%), mitigation (29%), both (19%), or none (12%). Only 1 quarter of reports critically evaluated equity (25%), and fewer reports suggested that changes to equity and equitable practices would alter climate-FSNH dynamics (6%). The expert consultation mirrored the results of the EGM and contextualized findings further. This novel map describes a wide research landscape linking climate change to FSNH. We identified 4 key research gaps: 1) research on whole food systems or postharvest elements; 2) research evaluating relationships between climate change and nutrition-related health outcomes, especially among vulnerable populations; 3) promising methods (and additional data required) that can i) identify inflection points or levers for intervention, ii) incorporate complex dynamics and characterize trade-offs, iii) be understood and applied in context-specific, localized ways for decision making; and 4) research undertaken through interdisciplinary collaborations that enables producing and translating evidence to action, especially those that inherently consider coproduction and fairness.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    该研究调查了生物地球化学覆盖(BGCC)系统中潜在的甲烷(CH4)氧化和残留二氧化碳(CO2)封存的空间变化,该系统旨在从垃圾填埋场气体(LFG)排放中去除CH4,CO2和硫化氢(H2S)。一个50厘米x50厘米x100厘米的坦克模拟BGCC系统,包括用于CH4氧化的生物炭改良土壤(BAS)层,用于封存CO2和H2S的碱性氧气炉(BOF)渣层,和上部表土层。合成LFG分五个阶段冲洗系统,每个对应于不同的成分和流速。监测之后,该系统被拆除,从不同的深度和位置提取样本来分析空间变化,关注水分含量(MC),有机含量(OC),pH值,和电导率(EC)。此外,对来自BAS和BOF炉渣层的选定样品进行批量测试,以评估潜在的CH4氧化和残余碳酸化能力。研究的目的是评估BGCC在LFG缓解中的有效性,然而,这项研究侧重于评估物理化学性质的空间变化,CH4在BAS层中的氧化,以及BOF炉渣层中残留的碳酸化。研究结果表明,BAS层中的CH4氧化在22.4和277.9µgCH4/g-天之间变化,上部利率较高,与85cmbgs相比,在地面(bgs)以下50cm处存在明显的空间变化。BOF炉渣层显示出40-49.3gCO2/kg炉渣的残余碳酸化能力,表示不均匀的碳酸化。总的来说,在BGCC系统中,CH4氧化和CO2封存能力在空间上和深度上变化。
    The study investigated the spatial variation of potential methane (CH4) oxidation and residual carbon dioxide (CO2) sequestration in biogeochemical cover (BGCC) system designed to remove CH4, CO2, and hydrogen sulfide (H2S) from landfill gas (LFG) emissions. A 50 cm x 50 cm x 100 cm tank simulated BGCC system, comprising a biochar-amended soil (BAS) layer for CH4 oxidation, a basic oxygen furnace (BOF) slag layer for CO2 and H2S sequestration, and an upper topsoil layer. Synthetic LFG was flushed through the system in five phases, with each corresponding to different compositions and flow rates. Following monitoring, the system was dismantled, and samples were extracted from different depths and locations to analyze spatial variations, focusing on moisture content (MC), organic content (OC), pH, and electrical conductivity (EC). Additionally, batch tests on selected samples from BAS and BOF slag layers were performed to assess potential CH4 oxidation and residual carbonation capacity. The aim of study was to evaluate the BGCC\'s effectiveness in LFG mitigation, however this study focused on assessing spatial variations in physico-chemical properties, CH4 oxidation in the BAS layer, and residual carbonation in the BOF slag layer. Findings revealed CH4 oxidation in the BAS layer varied between 22.4 and 277.9 µg CH4/g-day, with higher rates in the upper part, and significant spatial variations at 50 cm below ground surface (bgs) compared to 85 cm bgs. The BOF slag layer showed a residual carbonation capacity of 40-49.3 g CO2/kg slag, indicating non-uniform carbonation. Overall, CH4 oxidation and CO2 sequestration capacities varied spatially and with depth in the BGCC system.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    随着国家和社区努力应对气候变化,他们寻求迅速使其经济和文化脱碳。低碳的未来可能取决于更多分布式太阳能,移动的电气化,更高效的住宅和建筑。Butwhatemergentrisksareevidentwithinthislow-carbonsociety?This探索性研究firstreviewtheexistingliteraturetoidentify75risk-risktradeoffsbytheircategory,分销媒介,和类型。它建立在这75个例子的基础上,应用了风险偏移的类型学,风险替代,风险转移,和风险转型。基于广泛的文档分析,它将这种类型学应用于三项低碳创新:太阳能,电池电动汽车,和建筑节能改造,总共确定36种不同的风险-风险权衡。因此,本文将讨论风险管理的复杂性和挑战。在这样做的时候,它要求进行更精细的风险评估,以更好地考虑决策因素,例如风险的大小或概率,暴露的人口规模,风险估计的确定性,不良结果的严重程度,分配考虑,以及风险影响的时机。它还总结了新出现的研究空白。气候行动背景下的风险管理成为权衡风险传递的三维棋局,风险媒介,和风险类别。
    As countries and communities grapple with climate change, they seek to rapidly decarbonize their economies and cultures. A low-carbon future will likely depend on more distributed solar energy, the electrification of mobility, and more efficient homes and buildings. But what emergent risks are evident within this low-carbon society? This exploratory study first reviews the existing literature to identify 75 risk-risk tradeoffs by their category, medium of distribution, and type. It builds on these 75 examples to apply a typology of Risk Offsets, Risk Substitution, Risk Transfer, and Risk Transformation. Based on extensive document analysis, it applies that typology to three low-carbon innovations: solar energy, battery electric vehicles, and building energy efficiency retrofits, identifying 36 distinct risk-risk tradeoffs in total. As such, the paper moves to discuss complexities and challenges in risk management. In doing so, it calls for a more refined risk assessment that better accounts for decision-making considerations such as the magnitude or probability of risk, size of population exposed, certainty in risk estimation, severity of adverse outcome, distributional considerations, and the timing of risk impacts. It also summarizes emergent research gaps. Risk management in the context of climate action becomes a three-dimensional chess game of weighing risk transmission, risk mediums, and risk categories.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    全球范围内,气候变暖正在增加气温和改变河流流量,但是很少有研究明确考虑这些双重影响对湖泊温度的影响,或管理湖泊流入以减轻气候变暖影响的潜力。使用一维模型,我们测试了湖泊温度对气温变化和流入的单独和相互作用的影响的敏感性,短停留时间(年平均≈20天),温带湖泊。减少70%的流入使夏季湖泊表面温度增加1.0-1.2°C,水柱稳定性增加11-19%,相当于1.2°C空气温度升温的效果。相反,类似的流入量增加可能导致湖泊夏季降温,足以缓解0.75°C的空气温度上升,如果流入温度不升高,则升高至1.1°C以上。我们讨论了如何将改变湖泊流入量和温度添加到湖泊的适应措施中。
    Globally, climate warming is increasing air temperatures and changing river flows, but few studies have explicitly considered the consequences for lake temperatures of these dual effects, or the potential to manage lake inflows to mitigate climate warming impacts. Using a one-dimensional model, we tested the sensitivity of lake temperatures to the separate and interacting effects of changes in air temperature and inflow on a small, short-residence time (annual average ≈ 20 days), temperate lake. Reducing inflow by 70% increased summer lake surface temperatures 1.0-1.2 °C and water column stability by 11-19%, equivalent to the effect of 1.2 °C air temperature warming. Conversely, similar increases in inflow could result in lake summer cooling, sufficient to mitigate 0.75 °C air temperature rise, increasing to more than 1.1 °C if inflow temperature does not rise. We discuss how altering lake inflow volume and temperature could be added to the suite of adaptation measures for lakes.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    需要在2015年《巴黎气候协定》的国家自主承诺(NDC)之外做出重大的缓解努力,以避免比工业化前温度升高2°C。健康共同效益代表选定的近期,在这些政策对气候变化规模的有益影响显现之前,可以在短期内抵消缓解成本的气候政策的积极后果。对缓解方案及其健康影响进行建模的方法的多样性抑制了对决策有用的荟萃分析和结果综合。
    我们评估了气候缓解的健康共同利益建模的方法和选择范围,以确定增加一致性和协作的机会,从而更好地为决策提供信息。我们回顾了量化气候变化缓解与空气质量相关的健康共同利益的研究,交通运输,自2009年柳叶刀委员会“管理气候变化对健康的影响”以来,饮食一直到2017年1月。我们记录了方法,方法,场景,与健康相关的暴露,和健康结果。
    42项研究符合纳入标准。空气质量,交通运输,饮食方案从具体的政策建议到假设的方案,从全球建议到利益相关者知情的地方指导。地理和时间范围以及方案的有效性决定了政策的相关性。最近的研究倾向于使用更复杂的方法来解决相关政策系统的复杂性。
    大多数研究表明,更近的期限,地方辅助健康福利为政策采纳和净成本节约提供动力。然而,研究更适合描述气候政策与健康的相互作用以及潜在结果的大小,而不是提供健康共同获益的具体准确估计.对气候政策的健康共同利益进行建模可在情景合理时提供与政策相关的信息,相关,彻底,并且该模型充分解决了复杂性。在气候缓解研究的健康共同利益中,选定的建模选择更加一致,将有助于评估缓解方案,特别是适用于国家发展中国家的缓解方案,并促进政策采纳。
    UNASSIGNED: Significant mitigation efforts beyond the Nationally Determined Commitments (NDCs) coming out of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement are required to avoid warming of 2°C above pre-industrial temperatures. Health co-benefits represent selected near term, positive consequences of climate policies that can offset mitigation costs in the short term before the beneficial impacts of those policies on the magnitude of climate change are evident. The diversity of approaches to modeling mitigation options and their health effects inhibits meta-analyses and syntheses of results useful in policy-making.
    UNASSIGNED: We evaluated the range of methods and choices in modeling health co-benefits of climate mitigation to identify opportunities for increased consistency and collaboration that could better inform policy-making. We reviewed studies quantifying the health co-benefits of climate change mitigation related to air quality, transportation, and diet published since the 2009 Lancet Commission \'Managing the health effects of climate change\' through January 2017. We documented approaches, methods, scenarios, health-related exposures, and health outcomes.
    UNASSIGNED: Forty-two studies met the inclusion criteria. Air quality, transportation, and diet scenarios ranged from specific policy proposals to hypothetical scenarios, and from global recommendations to stakeholder-informed local guidance. Geographic and temporal scope as well as validity of scenarios determined policy relevance. More recent studies tended to use more sophisticated methods to address complexity in the relevant policy system.
    UNASSIGNED: Most studies indicated significant, nearer term, local ancillary health benefits providing impetus for policy uptake and net cost savings. However, studies were more suited to describing the interaction of climate policy and health and the magnitude of potential outcomes than to providing specific accurate estimates of health co-benefits. Modeling the health co-benefits of climate policy provides policy-relevant information when the scenarios are reasonable, relevant, and thorough, and the model adequately addresses complexity. Greater consistency in selected modeling choices across the health co-benefits of climate mitigation research would facilitate evaluation of mitigation options particularly as they apply to the NDCs and promote policy uptake.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    驯鹿(Rangifertarandus)的畜牧业利用广阔的北极针叶林和苔原作为放牧地。人口规模的高度波动对土著牧民社区的经济和生计构成重大挑战。在这项研究中,我们调查了两个萨米驯鹿放牧区的人口波动对核心供应和调节生态系统服务的影响,波动趋势相反。我们比较了50年的时间序列对牛群规模的影响,肉类生产,牧草生产力,碳足迹,和基于辐射强迫概念的表面反照率变化的CO2当量度量。我们的结果显示,对于这两个地区来说,供应服务的经济利益高于监管服务的成本。尽管如此,有很大的反差;驯鹿密度中等和稳定的地区在单位面积的供应服务上增加了近一倍。由于用低反射的木本植物代替高反射的地衣而导致的表面反照率降低而增加了吸热的成本,在波动较大的地区,单位面积高出10.5倍。总的来说,在驯鹿密度稳定的地区,单位面积的净经济效益高出237%。这些结果表明,可以通过最大程度地减少以可持续密度管理的牧群的波动,最大程度地减少驯鹿在当地放牧的经济利益与气候调节服务方面的全球经济成本之间的权衡。
    Reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) pastoralism utilizes vast boreo-arctic taiga and tundra as grazing land. Highly fluctuating population sizes pose major challenges to the economy and livelihood of indigenous herder communities. In this study we investigated the effect of population fluctuations on core provisioning and regulating ecosystem services in two Sámi reindeer herding districts with contrasting fluctuation trends. We compared 50-year long time series on herd size, meat production, forage productivity, carbon footprint, and CO2-equivalence metrics for surface albedo change based on the radiative forcing concept. Our results show, for both districts, that the economic benefits from the provisioning services were higher than the costs from the regulating services. Still, there were major contrasts; the district with moderate and stable reindeer density gained nearly the double on provisioning services per unit area. The costs from increasing heat absorption due to reduction in surface albedo caused by replacement of high-reflective lichens with low-reflective woody plants, was 10.5 times higher per unit area in the district with large fluctuations. Overall, the net economic benefits per unit area were 237 % higher in the district with stable reindeer density. These results demonstrate that it is possible to minimize trade-offs between economic benefits from reindeer herding locally and global economic costs in terms of climate-regulating services by minimizing fluctuations in herds that are managed at sustainable densities.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    生活方式与温室气体(GHG)排放之间的联系已将全球城市的气候减缓战略列为优先事项。随着城市越来越多地通过其工业和交通活动产生温室气体排放,他们在缓解气候变化方面的作用越来越突出。城市减少居民日常生活温室气体强度的气候缓解政策是他们应对气候变化的重要努力之一。灯塔城市(LCs),特别是,已经成为促进居民生活方式改变的杰出演员。
    本研究考察了气候竞选团队项目的气候缓解策略,包括巴库,维尔纽斯,拉赫蒂,伊兹密尔,特鲁希略,雅典,林茨,米兰,开普敦,都柏林,还有Skopelos,通过对11个LCs进行专家调查,涉及89名受访者,来解决生活方式的改变。专家调查的结果在11家公司中进行了比较分析。
    结果表明,灯塔城市的专家认为,不断提高的意识和信息提供是缓解气候变化政策的重要组成部分。关于生活方式的改变,能源效率和可持续交通战略被强调为优先考虑的主要领域。
    这项研究增强了对城市“减少居民温室气体排放的能力”的理解。研究结果可用于确定和调整政策,以支持灯塔城市缓解气候变化的努力,并为选择可以在灯塔城市中促进和优先考虑的生活方式改变提供指导。
    UNASSIGNED: The link between lifestyles and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions has prioritized climate mitigation strategies of cities worldwide. As cities have increasingly generated GHG emissions by their industrial and transportation activities, their role in climate mitigation has gained prominence. Cities\' climate mitigation policies to reduce the GHG intensity of their residents\' daily lives are one of their significant efforts to tackle climate change. Lighthouse Cities (LCs), in particular, have emerged as remarkable actors in promoting lifestyle changes for their residents.
    UNASSIGNED: This study examines climate mitigation strategies of LCs of Climate CAMPAIGNers project, including Baku, Vilnius, Lahti, Izmir, Trujillo, Athens, Linz, Milan, Cape Town, Dublin, and Skopelos, addressing lifestyle changes by conducting an expert survey in 11 LCs involving 89 respondents. The findings of the expert survey are comparatively analyzed across 11 LCs.
    UNASSIGNED: The results show that experts form Lighthouse Cities identify increasing awareness and information provision as a significant component of climate mitigation policies. Concerning lifestyle changes, strategies toward energy efficiency and sustainable mobility are highlighted as the primary areas to be prioritized.
    UNASSIGNED: This study enhances the understanding of cities\' capacity to reduce their residents\' GHG emissions. The findings can be utilized to identify and tailor policies for supporting the Lighthouse Cities in their climate change mitigation efforts and provide pointers for selecting the lifestyle changes that can be promoted and prioritized in Lighthouse Cities.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    将全球变暖限制在2°C需要采取紧急行动来缓解陆地。本研究评估了旨在实现相同辐射强迫的两种替代陆基缓解方案的生物地球化学和生物地球物理意义。一种情况主要是由生物能源扩张(SSP226Lu-BIOCROP)驱动的,而另一项涉及重新/造林(SSP126Lu-REFOREST)。我们发现总的来说,SSP126Lu-REFOREST是到2100年从大气中去除CO2的更有效策略,与SSP226Lu-BIOCROP相比,净碳汇为242〜483PgC,不确定性较小,其中表现出更宽的范围-78~621PgC。然而,SSP126Lu-REFOREST导致比SSP226Lu-BIOCROP相对温暖的行星气候,在当地气候不利于树木生长的某些重新/造林地区,这种相对变暖可能会加剧。尽管全球范围内的降温效应,SSP226Lu-BIOCROP重新洗牌了区域变暖热点,在脆弱的热带地区,如中非和东南亚,夏季气温升高。我们的发现强调了战略性土地利用规划的必要性,以确定适合重新/造林和生物能源扩张的区域,从而提高实现预期的气候缓解成果的可能性。
    Limiting global warming to 2 °C requires urgent action on land-based mitigation. This study evaluates the biogeochemical and biogeophysical implications of two alternative land-based mitigation scenarios that aim to achieve the same radiative forcing. One scenario is primarily driven by bioenergy expansion (SSP226Lu-BIOCROP), while the other involves re/afforestation (SSP126Lu-REFOREST). We find that overall, SSP126Lu-REFOREST is a more efficient strategy for removing CO2 from the atmosphere by 2100, resulting in a net carbon sink of 242 ~ 483 PgC with smaller uncertainties compared to SSP226Lu-BIOCROP, which exhibits a wider range of -78 ~ 621 PgC. However, SSP126Lu-REFOREST leads to a relatively warmer planetary climate than SSP226Lu-BIOCROP, and this relative warming can be intensified in certain re/afforested regions where local climates are not favorable for tree growth. Despite the cooling effect on a global scale, SSP226Lu-BIOCROP reshuffles regional warming hotspots, amplifying summer temperatures in vulnerable tropical regions such as Central Africa and Southeast Asia. Our findings highlight the need for strategic land use planning to identify suitable regions for re/afforestation and bioenergy expansion, thereby improving the likelihood of achieving the intended climate mitigation outcomes.
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